Johns Hopkins vs. Notre Dame

[DocBarrister]

I think this will be a close one.

To win, Blue Jays will need to win the FO battle, minimize turnovers against the ND ride, and get at least 15 saves in goal.

DocBarrister

[Mr3Putt]

Personnel for ND is a little too much for Hopkins, across the board. Will Fake cover Melendez?

[Finster]

Hopkins by 1 in OT

[Creasedive]

Will be a huge Hopkins crowd. Notre Dame is overrated. The Hop by 2-3 goals.

[tech37]

Will be a huge Hopkins crowd. Notre Dame is overrated. The Hop by 2-3 goals.

Mentioned this on HOP page...Annapolis = "home-away-from-home" for Hopkins

ND will need their "A" game to win.

[wgdsr]

Will be a huge Hopkins crowd. Notre Dame is overrated. The Hop by 2-3 goals.

who would you rate them behind?

[Creasedive]

Certainly Duke and UVA. The way they are playing now - I think Hopkins, Michigan and Georgetown would beat them as well.

[wgdsr]

Certainly Duke and UVA. The way they are playing now - I think Hopkins, Michigan and Georgetown would beat them as well.

i mean ok, but they've torched everyone but uva (and an ot win @ maryland). including 3 teams on your list. everybody gets an opinion, but personally i don't see any results to date that jibe with that view.

[coda]

ND by 3.. Key for Hopkins is to win face offs, more to the point win the last 2 phases of the face-off (GB and Clear, ND usually loses the clamp). Make ND play in the 6 v 6 on offense. They can get static there. Control the "effort goals" from ND. Kavanaugh's seem to create 3-4 goals off effort plays or just weird stuff every game. Which leads to the #1 stat for Hopkins a upset, GBs. They have to win the GB battle.

[51percentcorn]

Anybody that doesn't think this is a big uphill climb for Hopkins is whistling past the proverbial graveyard. Let's address some issues:
- Face-offs - just because this appears to be one of Notre Dame's statistical weaknesses doesn't mean anything until the game is played. Notre Dame at 46% - so was/is Penn State - maybe if Hopkins had not gone less than 33% (9 for 28) at face-offs that game.... While I almost never agree with the Black Hole the face-off statistic can be counteracted by other issues on the field. Another example - Naso crushed Notre Dame at the face-off X yet Duke lost by 5. Goalie play/no turnovers by the Irish/50/50 ground balls dominated by Notre Dame all were contributing factors. So yes - obviously you want to start with the ball rather than not but a) the percentages are no guaranty and b) it's just the beginning of things
- Goalie Play - Entenmann is at 56% and opposing goalies to Notre Dame are at 43% - and that's with Nunes' 33 saves figured in - as discussed on the Hopkins thread - Kastner and Co obviously have had success controlling the Kavanaughs - but to have a chance the 56 to 43 differential has to be shrunk by quite a bit. Even in the Bryant game while Marcille made some good saves in close a) he faced only 3 shots on goal in 30 minutes of play b) the two Goltz blasts still illustrated his Kryptonite - high heat. I suggest guarding Dobson to the bathroom.
- Turnovers - Notre Dame takes very good care of the lacrosse ball. Hopkins must follow suit and while they did a great job against Bryant that probably wasn't a good barometer. Shot clock violations are acceptable as it limits their transition but failed clears - bad passes that they pick up in the middle of the field - spell disaster
- Controlling the knowns - IMO the single biggest reason UVA currently has ND's number is they hold the Kavanaughs to close to nothing. The brothers are responsible for close to 39% of Notre Dame's points (by comparison Angelus and Melendez are responsible for 32% of Hopkins' points) and they have basically come up with very little against UVA ( PK with 3 goals 4 assists and CK with 2 goals 2 assists and Dobson has not scored in two games against them). Provide the numbers of what the brothers do against Hopkins and I think you be able to predict the outcome 90+ % of the time.
- Limit/Eliminate the runs - In all 5 losses the game either started poorly or the opponent had a really lopsided run (Maryland's run was a little less than lopsided but the 5-1 run in the second half when the game was 8-7 was the deciding blow) UNC finished the game 8-1/Loyola started the game 11-2/UVA started the game 6-0/Penn State's run was 10-2 - any protracted run of 5/6 whatever straight goals is turn the lights out - why am I slicing my tee shots?
- Hopkins' liability on defense - I don't think I am divulging any secret to Corrigan but Martin appears to be running around on one leg. On Goltz's first goal he blew by Martin like his feet were nailed to the turf and Martin just stopped - I don't think Aidan Goltz is the kid from Michigan. If he is that compromised and we don't have any alternative other than to keep sending him out there I think unfortunately Notre Dame will exploit that. Notre Dame is not a team you can zone. Then on Bryant's second goal we saw an issue that has revealed itself with the second pair of SSDMs. I am not savvy enough to know what you do but heavy sliding to protect the short sticks seems like a recipe for disaster.
- Hopkins may not be built to score on Notre Dame like UVA is. In the first game against the Hoos - Dickson/Cormier/Shellenberger/McIntosh accounted for 11 of the 15 goals - In the second it appeared Notre Dame really focused on Cormier but that opened things up for McConvey and Dickson still scored 4. While of course we get some inside goals - that is not the staple of the Hopkins attack and we don't have any weapon that remotely resembles Cormier and occupies so much attention inside. I will be fascinated by how Hopkins approaches the game offensively.
So can it be done - yes sure it can - but it's not going to be easy and alot of things have to go light blue and black.

[Finster]

To beat ND, in addition to everything you listed above, you need one goalie killing shooter like Dickson. A guy who knows exactly where to fire, with almost precision-like conversion. That not only (obviously) produces a score, but as importantly, it limits unforced turnovers.

If you have a Lasalla, it’s insult to injury for ND; you score, and keep possession. ND is prone to emotional fatigue, which I think is a reflection of the coach’s personality.

Convert possessions early, then win ensuing FO’s, ND is gonna retreat just like they did versus UVA.

I see a real need for a guy like English for the Jays. Let him find the open inside looks. He’ll convert. You guys need surgical shooters inside for this game. Entenmann will stuff the heaters from Grimes etc. Dickson showed you the way.

[10stone5]

The “heaters” are from Melendez, Degnon, Collison.

[HopFan16]

I don't think faceoffs are going to play a big role. Neither team seems equipped to turn that into a major advantage.

Marcille is going to have to go toe-to-toe with Entenmann or at least come close. If it's 60% for ND and 40% for the Jays, that will be tough to overcome IMO.

In settled 6v6 situations the two teams seem fairly even to me. ND's high-end talent (aka the Kavanaghs) might be a bit better but I do think the Jays are deeper and can throw more threats at you.

ND is not going to do what Bryant did and let Angelus and Melendez run wild against shorties for half the game. Fake and their #2 D guy are going to stick to them like glue. In order to win this, the Jays may have to do what they've rarely done all season — win a game when Angelus and Melendez are limited. When those two go off, the Jays win. When they're bottled up, the offense sputters a bit. Degon, Grimes, Collison, Peshko, etc — your time is now.

[coda]

I don't think faceoffs are going to play a big role. Neither team seems equipped to turn that into a major advantage.

Marcille is going to have to go toe-to-toe with Entenmann or at least come close. If it's 60% for ND and 40% for the Jays, that will be tough to overcome IMO.

In settled 6v6 situations the two teams seem fairly even to me. ND's high-end talent (aka the Kavanaghs) might be a bit better but I do think the Jays are deeper and can throw more threats at you.

ND is not going to do what Bryant did and let Angelus and Melendez run wild against shorties for half the game. Fake and their #2 D guy are going to stick to them like glue. In order to win this, the Jays may have to do what they've rarely done all season — win a game when Angelus and Melendez are limited. When those two go off, the Jays win. When they're bottled up, the offense sputters a bit. Degon, Grimes, Collison, Peshko, etc — your time is now.

ND is never good at facing off, but I think they are way better than the numbers and people think. To quote Danowski the Face-off is 3 parts and you only have to win 1 (the clear) to get possession (it was something like that). ND is sub 50% on the face off, but they are damn good on GBs and against the clear. I have always loved when I see teams 10 man the faceoff. ND doesnt go that far, but they make it real tough on FOGOs to get the ball down to the attack. The key is just not to win the faceoff stat, but convert them into possessions.

[Finster]

The “heaters” are from Melendez, Degnon, Collison.

Those three better move closer to the goal when firing. You don’t beat Entenmann with outside heat; he swallows those kind of shots for breakfast.

To beat Entenmann, a team needs smart shot placement inside the zone, with quick stick shooting and inside rotating bodies. That’s why Dickson crushed Entenmann; in close, on the move, intelligent placement, no hesitation, always perfect.

Entenmann laughs at outside 12 yard heaters. That best not be your offense.

[DocBarrister]

The “heaters” are from Melendez, Degnon, Collison.

Those three better move closer to the goal when firing. You don’t beat Entenmann with outside heat; he swallows those kind of shots for breakfast.

Which is ironic, since I sometimes eat his family’s grocery store donuts for breakfast.

DocBarrister

[Hoxwurth]

In settled 6v6 situations the two teams seem fairly even to me.

Look at Lacrosse Reference's numbers for efficiency by possession length. ND is the best team in the country for long offensive possessions and is similarly dominant against long possessions by opponents. Without the faceoff deficit, ND is the favorite to win a championship this year. Even with a significant faceoff deficit, ND still pulled out a win against Maryland before the Terps' wheels came off.

JHU can win this but the line of +4.5 suggests the money thinks that's highly unlikely, which is fair given ND's season overall where they've smoked nearly everyone they've played.

[DocBarrister]

In settled 6v6 situations the two teams seem fairly even to me.

Look at Lacrosse Reference's numbers for efficiency by possession length. ND is the best team in the country for long offensive possessions and is similarly dominant against long possessions by opponents. Without the faceoff deficit, ND is the favorite to win a championship this year. Even with a significant faceoff deficit, ND still pulled out a win against Maryland before the Terps' wheels came off.

JHU can win this but the line of +4.5 suggests the money thinks that's highly unlikely, which is fair given ND's season overall where they've smoked nearly everyone they've played.

PM was quoted by the announcers as wanting to generate early offense when possible last weekend. Not sure that strategy was entirely intended for Bryant.

DocBarrister

[Finster]

ND has internalized that they can not beat UVA. They simply can not. The matchup of these two teams is as bad as it gets peer to peer.

If UVA takes Georgetown out on Saturday as expected, I expect ND to be deflated on Sunday against JHU, knowing life won’t be easier for them the following Saturday.

Many teams will rise to a challenge. I think this team is susceptible to bad emotions; you saw that the last game against UVA.

[DocBarrister]

ND has internalized that they can not beat UVA. They simply can not. The matchup of these two teams is as bad as it gets peer to peer.

If UVA takes Georgetown out on Saturday as expected, I expect ND to be deflated on Sunday against JHU, knowing life won’t be easier for them the following Saturday.

Many teams will rise to a challenge. I think this team is susceptible to bad emotions; you saw that the last game against UVA.

NCAA tournament is a new season. I’m sure the Fighting Irish are focused on the Blue Jays.

If Notre Dame is as good as everyone says they are, they would relish another shot at Virginia.

DocBarrister