2019 Bracketology Thread

[10stone5]

Yup

[JeremyCuse]

Should clarify that if there is absolute chaos in the conf tournaments I could see a scenario where SU is left out but I would think at this point they have the advantage over most if not all the bubble teams.

[Hawkeye]

Should clarify that if there is absolute chaos in the conf tournaments I could see a scenario where SU is left out but I would think at this point they have the advantage over most if not all the bubble teams.

From my actual bracketology post a few pages back: "I currently have 9 teams (6 in the at-large section plus PSU/Penn/Loyola) listed as "locks," even though there are only 8 at-large bids . This means that if all hell breaks loose in all three of the Big Ten (Rutgers/JHU), Ivy League (Brown/Cornell), Patriot League (anyone but Loyola), someone who looks safe right now is going to be staying home."

In this case, I think Syracuse is the most likely of the 9 "safe" teams to be left out, but like you said, we're a lot of chaos away from even thinking about this right now.

[Hawkeye]

conceptually, if we look at my 10-2 record vs. teams that are 10-2 who beat teams that are 10-2, i must be pretty good. but this isn't necessarily true. for HS teams, it's a mess. there are 10-2 teams that plays 10-2s that play 10-2s that are awful. Conversely, there are 6-6 teams that play 6-6s that play 6-6s that are pretty good and most certainly better than these 10-2s.

At some point this becomes like standing in one of those mirror fun houses. In a finite, closed set of teams - which D1 men's lacrosse very nearly is ( what's up, Hampton?) - everyone has to go .500 on average.

I don't see this as a problem with as small of a set of teams as there is in D1. You are correct that this is a big problem in high school athletics.

[Hawkeye]

College Crosse posted this today: https://www.collegecrosse.com/2019/4/30 ... e-ncaa-lax

It's very similar to what I posted on Sunday/expanded upon yesterday.

Lots of agreement all around it seems.

[houndace1]

College Crosse posted this today: https://www.collegecrosse.com/2019/4/30 ... e-ncaa-lax

It's very similar to what I posted on Sunday/expanded upon yesterday.

Lots of agreement all around it seems.

Hawkeye, lets say for discussion, hopkins/Loyola/Towson win their respective leads, do you see them getting a seed in the tournament

[laxreference]

Only thing I'd note is that CollegeCrosse has JHU as the last team and Cornell in above them. This could be important depending on whether there is a bid-thief. We all agree until there is a need to pick between JHU/Cornell/Towson it would seem.

[JeremyCuse]

Should clarify that if there is absolute chaos in the conf tournaments I could see a scenario where SU is left out but I would think at this point they have the advantage over most if not all the bubble teams.

From my actual bracketology post a few pages back: "I currently have 9 teams (6 in the at-large section plus PSU/Penn/Loyola) listed as "locks," even though there are only 8 at-large bids . This means that if all hell breaks loose in all three of the Big Ten (Rutgers/JHU), Ivy League (Brown/Cornell), Patriot League (anyone but Loyola), someone who looks safe right now is going to be staying home."

In this case, I think Syracuse is the most likely of the 9 "safe" teams to be left out, but like you said, we're a lot of chaos away from even thinking about this right now.

I think you have it right, it would certainly take total chaos but there is a path where a team like SU could be in trouble. I think if your an SU or Cornell fan the B10 is one you need to go chalk. That RU vs PSU game is a concern. I don't want to jinx it but I have a hard time seeing Maryland losing to the same team in less then a week based on Tillman's track record but I didn't see Hopkins scoring 16 goals either so who the hell knows.

[Hawkeye]

Hawkeye, lets say for discussion, hopkins/Loyola/Towson win their respective leads, do you see them getting a seed in the tournament

My gut feeling on this one, and it's hard to say without knowing what all else happens this week, but here goes...

Loyola - easily
Hopkins - probably (more likely with a win over Penn State than with one over Rutgers)
Towson - doubtful

[Hawkeye]

Only thing I'd note is that CollegeCrosse has JHU as the last team and Cornell in above them. This could be important depending on whether there is a bid-thief. We all agree until there is a need to pick between JHU/Cornell/Towson it would seem.

They're in the same boat that I am of currently having Hopkins on the outside only because right now UMass meets their criteria for the CAA AQ. That's going to be one of the key leagues to watch, no question.



And here's another one, US LAX Magazine this time: https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... erall-seed

^ same general story from them as the others

[JeremyCuse]

Only thing I'd note is that CollegeCrosse has JHU as the last team and Cornell in above them. This could be important depending on whether there is a bid-thief. We all agree until there is a need to pick between JHU/Cornell/Towson it would seem.

They're in the same boat that I am of currently having Hopkins on the outside only because right now UMass meets their criteria for the CAA AQ. That's going to be one of the key leagues to watch, no question.



And here's another one, US LAX Magazine this time: https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... erall-seed

^ same general story from them as the others

Towson is a tough case. You can make the argument both ways about them being out if they don't win their conf tourney. The Loyola win is huge for them obviously but outside of the Hopkins opening game win not a lot of other top 20 wins there. I think they would be wise to win the AQ.

[houndace1]

Hawkeye, lets say for discussion, hopkins/Loyola/Towson win their respective leads, do you see them getting a seed in the tournament

My gut feeling on this one, and it's hard to say without knowing what all else happens this week, but here goes...

Loyola - easily
Hopkins - probably (more likely with a win over Penn State than with one over Rutgers)
Towson - doubtful

What about if Hop wins against UMD this thursday but loses in the Big10 finals? is that enough to get in and get a seed, or just get into the NCAA and go on a road game

[Hawkeye]

What about if Hop wins against UMD this thursday but loses in the Big10 finals? is that enough to get in and get a seed, or just get into the NCAA and go on a road game

I would say that's almost certainly in but a road game. But I don't think many Hopkins fans would complain given how the season looked this time last week.

[admin]

College Crosse posted this today: https://www.collegecrosse.com/2019/4/30 ... e-ncaa-lax It's very similar to what I posted on Sunday/expanded upon yesterday. Lots of agreement all around it seems.

UMass and Towson in and JHU out? I dunno...

[laxreference]

UMass and Towson in and JHU out? I dunno...

They give UMass the AQ because they are in first place in the league. I suspect that if Towson wins the league, they'd have JHU in. That said, projections have UMass winning the league 45% of the time vs just 31% for Towson, so their scenario is actually probably more likely than some would think.

[thetruth]

Imagine what happens if Rutgers beats JHU in the Big Ten final, Brown knocks off Cornell in the Ivy final and Holy Cross takes down BU in a Patriot final. Highly unlikely (very), but that scenario puts Maryland, JHU, PSU, Yale, Penn, Cornell and Loyola all in at large consideration with Duke, UVA, ND, Cuse and Towson. Will never happen, but fun to think about....

[HopFan16]

To me, Hop has two ways in:

1) Beat Maryland on Thursday. Do that, and nothing else matters.
2) Lose to Maryland, but still get in if Towson and Loyola win their respective conferences.

Cornell's situation looks similar, just switch "Maryland" for "Yale."

If Towson beats Delaware, I think they're still in, provided Hopkins and Cornell lose. They could lose the CAA championship game and still get an at-large, I think. Towson will be in trouble if they lose and both Hopkins and Cornell win, though. The odds of that happening are probably slim, but not impossible.

Tigers, please just win your conference. Thank you!

[Noonan]

If U mass and Towson both win Thursday they will be in NCAA
If one gets upset, which I think will happen, then they are out.

[Dunker]

What about if Hop wins against UMD this thursday but loses in the Big10 finals? is that enough to get in and get a seed, or just get into the NCAA and go on a road game
[/quote]

Hop wins Thursday. Cornell wins 1 game in Ivy. Loyola wins its tournament. At that point I think Maryland opens on the road.
If Cornell does not win a game in ILT, they probably drop out of top 8 and Md. will get the #8 seed.

Everyone's bracketology postings are a fun read. Go Pios.

[HopFan16]

If U mass and Towson both win Thursday they will be in NCAA
If one gets upset, which I think will happen, then they are out.

No. UMass needs the AQ or they're out. They are not getting an at-large bid.