All Things Russia & Ukraine

[MDlaxfan76]

So, not the internationally recognized, prior Russian Federation recognized, sovereign borders...?

IMO, that's the border with the best chance of "stability & reduces the chances of future conflict".

I agree, sooner the better, but not under pressure from the US with threats of withdrawal of support, further emboldening Putin's regime to simply run out the clock.

I think "deter a Chinese air or sea blockade or invasion of Taiwan" is best accomplished by the thorough, and preferably swift, defeat of Russian aggression. That defeat is the best way to "deter" Chinese hubris, a caution as to what can happen when democracies rally to one another.

I do not believe that is a realistic aspiration which can be accomplished in a reasonable amount of time without direct US military intervention.

I do not believe the US public will continue to support this disproportionate level of US military aid, in comparison to the amount our EU allies are providing, while they cozy up to China, undermining our attempts to deter China's aggression toward Taiwan.

I hope I'm wrong & a Black Swan victory for Ukraine happens in the next few months, but I would not bet on lt happening.

Yup, you and Trump want to pressure Ukraine into giving up now. That's what the pressure campaign to stop funding Ukraine means.
Cut their arms, and Russia rolls.

But the claims by Trump are false. And you've bought them.

This analysis says that Europe and the US are pretty even in support, they claim EU surpassed US.
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/me ... itted-aid/

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

Here's an earlier Heritage Foundation analysis: https://www.heritage.org/global-politic ... at-must-be

This one rebuts the claim that the EU countries weren't supporting Ukraine proportionately post 2014 invasion, they were providing 2/3 support.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/not-contr ... raine-2014

[MDlaxfan76]

On Wed, Zelensky told the BBC that the spring offensive is being delayed pending the arrival of promised heavy armor.

They see it not as one offensive, one assault but a series of hammer blows.

If they can take out the Kerch bridge with Storm Shadows & the newly formed armored brigades can break through the land bridge & reach the Azov coast, they can divide the Russian forces & isolate those in Crimea & the SW land bridge territory.

Yes, apparently not all of the promised materiel is there (or is it enough?)... the bigger issue has been the weather. When they get drier weather, they'll likely move more forcefully with heavy armor. Makes no sense before then. Been a wet spring, apparently.

I found the Storm Shadows news that those were already in Ukraine, before announcing the donation, to be interesting. Sounds like they're poised for use.

Yes, a series of "hammer blows".
Destroy command and control, destroy weapons resupply, break morale.

[MDlaxfan76]

On the back and forth about Russia's economics, Europe's pivot away...the claim in our discussions on here wasn't that Russia's economy would immediately implode, ending the war, rather that it would starve Russian military of resupply over the long haul, and create the conditions among the powerful within Russia to want to change leadership...over the long term.

It was never that Russia would simply stop the war.

But more importantly, Salty was claiming that Europe would have cold feet in supporting Ukraine, would falter, so the US would be alone...and would be foolish to support Ukraine if Europe would not...that was not remotely what has happened.

Europe has withstood major financial pressures, much greater than we've experienced here in the US, and has supported Ukraine every bit as strongly as we have, in all sorts of ways. We have more weapons (huge military budget and supply reserves and production capacities), but they have supported far more in humanitarian aid and other support, enabling us to focus mostly on military.

[jhu72]

The Bakhmut rout.

[Typical Lax Dad]

The Bakhmut rout.

Biden needs to stop this. He is just prolonging this proxy war.

[jhu72]

Lithuania joins Poland in renaming Kaliningrad.

[jhu72]

Tired of liberal ideology?? -- The answer to your problem.

[old salt]

So, not the internationally recognized, prior Russian Federation recognized, sovereign borders...?

IMO, that's the border with the best chance of "stability & reduces the chances of future conflict".

I agree, sooner the better, but not under pressure from the US with threats of withdrawal of support, further emboldening Putin's regime to simply run out the clock.

I think "deter a Chinese air or sea blockade or invasion of Taiwan" is best accomplished by the thorough, and preferably swift, defeat of Russian aggression. That defeat is the best way to "deter" Chinese hubris, a caution as to what can happen when democracies rally to one another.

I do not believe that is a realistic aspiration which can be accomplished in a reasonable amount of time without direct US military intervention.

I do not believe the US public will continue to support this disproportionate level of US military aid, in comparison to the amount our EU allies are providing, while they cozy up to China, undermining our attempts to deter China's aggression toward Taiwan.

I hope I'm wrong & a Black Swan victory for Ukraine happens in the next few months, but I would not bet on lt happening.

Yup, you and Trump want to pressure Ukraine into giving up now. That's what the pressure campaign to stop funding Ukraine means.
Cut their arms, and Russia rolls.

But the claims by Trump are false. And you've bought them.

This analysis says that Europe and the US are pretty even in support, they claim EU surpassed US.
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/me ... itted-aid/

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

Here's an earlier Heritage Foundation analysis: https://www.heritage.org/global-politic ... at-must-be

This one rebuts the claim that the EU countries weren't supporting Ukraine proportionately post 2014 invasion, they were providing 2/3 support.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/not-contr ... raine-2014

Humanitarian aid is not the same as military aid. False accounting. It will not win the war.
You're giving the EUros credit for dealing with their migrant refugee crisis from Ukraine.
The US is bearing the cost of our own migrant refugee crisis but. not claiming it as aid to Ukraine.

The charts in your CFR link validate my point that the US is giving a disproportionate amount compared to the EU.
Your CSIS link was from 2019. Developmental assistance was just money to corrupt oligarchs, not to bolster their military.

Nobody wants Ukraine to "give up now". We want the killing & destruction to end & the newly rebuilt Ukrainian military to remain intact to deter further Russian aggression, rather than to further escalate with more powerful weapons from both sides.

[MDlaxfan76]

So, not the internationally recognized, prior Russian Federation recognized, sovereign borders...?

IMO, that's the border with the best chance of "stability & reduces the chances of future conflict".

I agree, sooner the better, but not under pressure from the US with threats of withdrawal of support, further emboldening Putin's regime to simply run out the clock.

I think "deter a Chinese air or sea blockade or invasion of Taiwan" is best accomplished by the thorough, and preferably swift, defeat of Russian aggression. That defeat is the best way to "deter" Chinese hubris, a caution as to what can happen when democracies rally to one another.

I do not believe that is a realistic aspiration which can be accomplished in a reasonable amount of time without direct US military intervention.

I do not believe the US public will continue to support this disproportionate level of US military aid, in comparison to the amount our EU allies are providing, while they cozy up to China, undermining our attempts to deter China's aggression toward Taiwan.

I hope I'm wrong & a Black Swan victory for Ukraine happens in the next few months, but I would not bet on lt happening.

Yup, you and Trump want to pressure Ukraine into giving up now. That's what the pressure campaign to stop funding Ukraine means.
Cut their arms, and Russia rolls.

But the claims by Trump are false. And you've bought them.

This analysis says that Europe and the US are pretty even in support, they claim EU surpassed US.
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/publications/me ... itted-aid/

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

Here's an earlier Heritage Foundation analysis: https://www.heritage.org/global-politic ... at-must-be

This one rebuts the claim that the EU countries weren't supporting Ukraine proportionately post 2014 invasion, they were providing 2/3 support.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/not-contr ... raine-2014

Humanitarian aid is not the same as military aid. False accounting. It will not win the war.
You're giving the EUros credit for dealing with their migrant refugee crisis from Ukraine.
The US is bearing the cost of our own migrant refugee crisis but. not claiming it as aid to Ukraine.

The charts in your CFR link validate my point that the US is giving a disproportionate amount compared to the EU.
Your CSIS link was from 2019. Developmental assistance is just money to corrupt oligarchs, not to bolster their military.

Nobody wants Ukraine to "give up now". We want the killing & destruction to end & the newly rebuilt Ukrainian military to remain intact to deter further Russian aggression, rather than to further escalate with more powerful weapons from both sides.

Yes, I made clear that the one link was referencing the post 2014 support.

But that's just silly to say that the Europeans aren't providing a proportionate amount of aid because so much of it is humanitarian and financial support rather than direct arms.

The Europeans had been dealing with a quite comparable refugee crisis for many years comparable to ours, pre-Ukraine. Specific to Ukraine, though, they've done something we could only imagine doing...pretty incredible, really.

But hey, that doesn't count in helping Ukraine...

Again, the most appropriate, stable border to be defended is the one that was recognized internationally, and by the Russian Federation, as sovereign Ukraine. Push Russia out, and defend from there.

"nobody"???

Lots of people (who have past Putin apologist credentials) have called for cutting off, diminishing rapidly, the amount of financial support to Ukraine, especially the military aid.

[old salt]

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

But that's just silly to say that the Europeans aren't providing a proportionate amount of aid because so much of it is humanitarian and financial support rather than direct arms.

The disproportionate amount of TOTAL aid, US vs EU, is illustrated by this chart, the 5th one, in your CFR link.

U.S. Aid to Ukraine Far Exceeds That From Other Countries
Bilateral aid from the EU institutions and the top 20 donor countries as of January 15, 2023

[Typical Lax Dad]

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

But that's just silly to say that the Europeans aren't providing a proportionate amount of aid because so much of it is humanitarian and financial support rather than direct arms.

The disproportionate amount of TOTAL aid, US vs EU, is illustrated by this chart, the 5th one, in your CFR link.

U.S. Aid to Ukraine Far Exceeds That From Other Countries
Bilateral aid from the EU institutions and the top 20 donor countries as of January 15, 2023

Head down to Walmart, Tractor Supply, Cracker Barrel and Waffle House and ask them folk what they think about it….

[MDlaxfan76]

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

But that's just silly to say that the Europeans aren't providing a proportionate amount of aid because so much of it is humanitarian and financial support rather than direct arms.

The disproportionate amount of TOTAL aid, US vs EU, is illustrated by this chart, the 5th one, in your CFR link.

U.S. Aid to Ukraine Far Exceeds That From Other Countries
Bilateral aid from the EU institutions and the top 20 donor countries as of January 15, 2023

Yes, but when you total those up, and compare to total economy, you see that it's quite "proportionate".

We're about 50% larger economically than the EU. Our $26 trillion to their $16.6 trillion.

None of this includes the economic impact of the war to our economies, which indisputably has hurt Europe more than the US.

The claim of "disproportionate" is simply false.

[old salt]

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

But that's just silly to say that the Europeans aren't providing a proportionate amount of aid because so much of it is humanitarian and financial support rather than direct arms.

The disproportionate amount of TOTAL aid, US vs EU, is illustrated by this chart, the 5th one, in your CFR link.

U.S. Aid to Ukraine Far Exceeds That From Other Countries
Bilateral aid from the EU institutions and the top 20 donor countries as of January 15, 2023

Yes, but when you total those up, and compare to total economy, you see that it's quite "proportionate".

We're about 50% larger economically than the EU. Our $26 trillion to their $16.6 trillion.

None of this includes the economic impact of the war to our economies, which indisputably has hurt Europe more than the US.

The claim of "disproportionate" is simply false.

https://statisticstimes.com/economy/uni ... 20by%20Int.

Ukraine borders the EU. Are our EU allies helping fund our border crisis response ? How about military deployments to deter Chinese aggression vs W PAC democracies & allies ?

The United States and European Union are the two largest economies globally in nominal terms. As of 2021, both together share 42.4% and 30.7% of the entire global GDP in nominal and PPP terms, respectively.

When you add non-EU NATO members UK, Norway, Canada & Turkey, the GDP gap narrows further.

[old salt]

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

But that's just silly to say that the Europeans aren't providing a proportionate amount of aid because so much of it is humanitarian and financial support rather than direct arms.

The disproportionate amount of TOTAL aid, US vs EU, is illustrated by this chart, the 5th one, in your CFR link.

U.S. Aid to Ukraine Far Exceeds That From Other Countries
Bilateral aid from the EU institutions and the top 20 donor countries as of January 15, 2023

Head down to Walmart, Tractor Supply, Cracker Barrel and Waffle House and ask them folk what they think about it….

Elitist snob. What are they saying in the Whole Foods parking lot ?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

But that's just silly to say that the Europeans aren't providing a proportionate amount of aid because so much of it is humanitarian and financial support rather than direct arms.

The disproportionate amount of TOTAL aid, US vs EU, is illustrated by this chart, the 5th one, in your CFR link.

U.S. Aid to Ukraine Far Exceeds That From Other Countries
Bilateral aid from the EU institutions and the top 20 donor countries as of January 15, 2023

Head down to Walmart, Tractor Supply, Cracker Barrel and Waffle House and ask them folk what they think about it….

Elitist snob. What are they saying in the Whole Foods parking lot ?

I have never pontificated on a debate that the public is supposedly clamoring for on the issue….Zabar’s or Citarella may be the target audience…..Eddie’s may be a shorter drive for you.

[old salt]

https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2023/ ... ng/386220/

Just seven of NATO’s 30 members met their pledge to spend 2 percent of their gross domestic product on their defense last year.

NATO is updating its geographic regional plans to align with the strategic concept adopted at last year’s Madrid Summit, adding details on how it would defend itself from Russia and terrorist organizations. Those plans will be used to determine what troops and weapons and equipment are needed,

“So the executability of the plans is the result of not only the investments, but it's also on the forces that need to be available in the right number and with the right readiness,” ...“It is the result of more recruitment, it is the result of more training, it is the result of investments, and that will, whether we like it or not, will take some time.”

...the plans focus on “large-scale operations to defend every inch of the alliance’s territory,” a change from “out-of-area contingency operations” such as the 18-year NATO mission in Afghanistan.
“We are rapidly increasing the readiness and enablement of our forces, and we're making sure that they are ready to face current as well as future threats,”

Part of that “enablement” is logistics. ... acknowledged that NATO has for decades “neglected the larger-scale logistics that is connected to collective defense” because it was planning for operations out of its operational area....This requires infrastructural investments, this will require investments in logistic capabilities that we do not have any more.

”The regional plans and force-structure changes are focused on fending off Russia and terrorist organizations and not China, because China is only seen as a “challenge” and not a “threat” by NATO,
“That doesn't mean that there aren't allies in the alliance that also look at China and are planning on that as well. But that is not a collective effort based on the policy decisions that was taken by the leaders in Madrid,”

[MDlaxfan76]

Here's the Council on Foreign Relations: https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-ai ... six-charts

But that's just silly to say that the Europeans aren't providing a proportionate amount of aid because so much of it is humanitarian and financial support rather than direct arms.

The disproportionate amount of TOTAL aid, US vs EU, is illustrated by this chart, the 5th one, in your CFR link.

U.S. Aid to Ukraine Far Exceeds That From Other Countries
Bilateral aid from the EU institutions and the top 20 donor countries as of January 15, 2023

Yes, but when you total those up, and compare to total economy, you see that it's quite "proportionate".

We're about 50% larger economically than the EU. Our $26 trillion to their $16.6 trillion.

None of this includes the economic impact of the war to our economies, which indisputably has hurt Europe more than the US.

The claim of "disproportionate" is simply false.

https://statisticstimes.com/economy/uni ... 20by%20Int.

Ukraine borders the EU. Are our EU allies helping fund our border crisis response ? How about military deployments to deter Chinese aggression vs W PAC democracies & allies ?

The United States and European Union are the two largest economies globally in nominal terms. As of 2021, both together share 42.4% and 30.7% of the entire global GDP in nominal and PPP terms, respectively.

When you add non-EU NATO members UK, Norway, Canada & Turkey, the GDP gap narrows further.

did we fund their "crisis" when North African and Middle Eastern refugees flooded into Europe?...that's one of the dumber comments you've made.

Re economies, US is 50% larger than EU. You have different #'s?

The US has decided it is in our interest to maintain global order, including through our military complex (which I think you made your money off of?). That's been a strategic choice, and I'd argue that it has proven to be well worth the commitments, albeit we've made our share of huge mistakes. I'd err more to more soft power versus hard power, but I'm not whining about how successful the United States has been economically over the past 70 years of that strategic commitment!

[old salt]

Different #'s ? I cited the chart in the link you posted.

Economically, after WW-II, we found ourselves on third base, & you now claim we hit a home run.

31 M1A1 tanks just arrived in Germany. They're not combat ready but they're adequate for training the crews who will take delivery of 31 more M1A1's still being rehabbed & made combat ready by Lockheed Marin, sched to arrive in the fall.

That's part of what Zelensky is waiting for.

[old salt]

did we fund their "crisis" when North African and Middle Eastern refugees flooded into Europe?...that's one of the dumber comments you've made.

The Europeans had been dealing with a quite comparable refugee crisis for many years comparable to ours, pre-Ukraine. Specific to Ukraine, though, they've done something we could only imagine doing...pretty incredible, really.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... pe-border/

Migrants are surging into the U.S. and Europe. Western leaders are trying to stop them.
February 6, 2022
..as illegal immigration lurches back across the politically polarized West. From the U.S.-Mexico border to the Central Mediterranean, the early pandemic lull in irregular crossings has evaporated, leading to a rush of migrants. Irregular border crossings into the European Union last year climbed to nearly 200,000, jumping 57 percent over 2020 numbers and reaching levels not seen since 2017. U.S. officials apprehended 178,840 migrants at the southwest border in December, nearly two-and-a-half times the number recorded in the same month a year earlie

Quite comparable, pre-Ukraine ?
EU = less than 200,000 in a full year (2021).
US : SW border only = 176,840 in just 1 month (Dec 2021).

Ukrainian refugees to the EU are temporary & are already heading home. The UkraIne <=> EU migrant process has been orderly, organized & legal.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-d ... ng-europe/
The magnitude and rapidity of the influx and the large numbers returning are unprecedented... The numerousness of returnees is due to a peaceful border area, the large number of separated families as men 18-60 years old are prohibited from leaving Ukraine, and trust in re-entering the EU. Ukrainian resistance and Russian withdrawals from around cities like Kyiv and elsewhere also mattered.

[MDlaxfan76]

did we fund their "crisis" when North African and Middle Eastern refugees flooded into Europe?...that's one of the dumber comments you've made.

The Europeans had been dealing with a quite comparable refugee crisis for many years comparable to ours, pre-Ukraine. Specific to Ukraine, though, they've done something we could only imagine doing...pretty incredible, really.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... pe-border/

Migrants are surging into the U.S. and Europe. Western leaders are trying to stop them.
February 6, 2022
..as illegal immigration lurches back across the politically polarized West. From the U.S.-Mexico border to the Central Mediterranean, the early pandemic lull in irregular crossings has evaporated, leading to a rush of migrants. Irregular border crossings into the European Union last year climbed to nearly 200,000, jumping 57 percent over 2020 numbers and reaching levels not seen since 2017. U.S. officials apprehended 178,840 migrants at the southwest border in December, nearly two-and-a-half times the number recorded in the same month a year earlie

Quite comparable, pre-Ukraine ?
EU = less than 200,000 in a full year (2021).
US : SW border only = 176,840 in just 1 month (Dec 2021).

Ukrainian refugees to the EU are temporary & are already heading home. The UkraIne <=> EU migrant process has been orderly, organized & legal.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-d ... ng-europe/
The magnitude and rapidity of the influx and the large numbers returning are unprecedented... The numerousness of returnees is due to a peaceful border area, the large number of separated families as men 18-60 years old are prohibited from leaving Ukraine, and trust in re-entering the EU. Ukrainian resistance and Russian withdrawals from around cities like Kyiv and elsewhere also mattered.

What happened when Syria war happened? What happened after earthquake...refugees.

Look at what has been happening since 2013.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM ... cations=EU

Europe's refugee problem is a recent (last 10 years) phenomenon.

https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-a ... -europe_en

Some countries are much less hospitable than others in Europe, so the major countries like Germany and France take a lot. Some take very few.

Overall, the US has a higher percentage of non-citizens, but a big part of that has been the difficulty in obtaining citizenship here.

But yeah, most Ukrainians expect to return home. Meanwhile, Europe is paying for those refugees, though Japan just chipped up $1 Billion to help.

Germany just committed another $3 Billion in military aid, Marders and Leppards, drones, etc

There's been a big shift in Germany, where they had, since the end of WWII, never sent military aid to a conflict area, and so had focused on helping with the humanitarian side of Ukraine's needs. Now they've broken that 70+ years of non-military assistance...we just committed another $1.2B of military

Dreams of Europe faltering in their support for Ukraine winning this war as just pipe dreams. Give them up.