While on Cornell (of course), its interesting right now in the Media poll, that they are ranked ABOVE, Syracuse, a team they lost to, be it on the road, BUT ranked behind ND, a team they BEAT on the ROAD.
Doesnt mean anything Bracketology wise, but I guess the voters view the Loss by Syracuse to NC as more devastating than a loss by ND to Cornell.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78
2019 Bracketology Thread
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Great explanation, thanks!
We have similar views, just of different teams. Basically everything you just said about Cornell, would be why I am not overly optimistic about Hopkins getting in if they lose on Thursday. I suspect that there will be some team, somewhere stealing at AQ that bumps the suspected "last team in" out of the tournament.
We have similar views, just of different teams. Basically everything you just said about Cornell, would be why I am not overly optimistic about Hopkins getting in if they lose on Thursday. I suspect that there will be some team, somewhere stealing at AQ that bumps the suspected "last team in" out of the tournament.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Hawk, I feel the same way about Cornell. I am praying (like last year), that they simply WIN the ILT, and take it out of the committee's hand.Hawkeye wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:59 pm Great explanation, thanks!
We have similar views, just of different teams. Basically everything you just said about Cornell, would be why I am not overly optimistic about Hopkins getting in if they lose on Thursday. I suspect that there will be some team, somewhere stealing at AQ that bumps the suspected "last team in" out of the tournament.
Good luck to the Jays in their rematch. If they play like Saturday, they will be very tough to beat.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Correct!laxreference wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:52 pmLoyola loses the PL (34.7% chance)
Towson loses the CAA (69.4% chance; and RPI suggests that they would probably get in over a Cornell team that loses to Yale)
Brown wins the Ivy (4.8% chance)
Rutgers wins the Big Ten (4.1% chance)
Thinking back to our probability lessons, since all those events are independent the chance that none of those things happen is (someone check my math to make sure I'm explaining this right - looking at you CU77):
(1-.347)*(1-.694)*(1-.048)*(1-.041) = 18%
But I think you're over-emphasizing RPI. With a loss to Yale, Cornell is likely to have the #3 SOS in the nation (per laxbytes simulator). SOS (as computed via the NCAA methodology, which laxbytes does) is a separate selection criterion, and indeed the first criterion on the list of criteria (though they are not rank ordered). IMO, it is very unlikely that the selection committee would leave out the team with the #3 SOS and a #12 or so RPI.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
I
Just curious, what do you think about the methodology they use to calculate SOS?
That is certainly possible. It would be great to have another data point to show how they weight RPI vs SOS. As an impartial observer, here's hoping that JHU finishes with a higher RPI and Cornell with a higher SOS.CU77 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 4:33 pm
But I think you're over-emphasizing RPI. With a loss to Yale, Cornell is likely to have the #3 SOS in the nation (per laxbytes simulator). SOS (as computed via the NCAA methodology, which laxbytes does) is a separate selection criterion, and indeed the first criterion on the list of criteria (though they are not rank ordered). IMO, it is very unlikely that the selection committee would leave out the team with the #3 SOS and a #12 or so RPI.
Just curious, what do you think about the methodology they use to calculate SOS?
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Dumb in a number of ways, like everything the NCAA does with statistics.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
So the math above, the good analysis above shows, I think, Syracuse - not Cornell, not Towson - bumps off Hopkins for the final spot.
‘Course, the best laid plans.
‘Course, the best laid plans.
Last edited by 10stone5 on Mon Apr 29, 2019 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
With the regular season behind us most of the polls have aligned on a top three of 1) Penn State, 2) Yale, 3) Penn. Very interesting that Penn State beat Penn, Yale beat Penn State, and Penn beat Yale. What a round robin of supremacy. Should be great post season. I sure hope Yale and Penn get to meet in the ILT with the winner facing Penn State in the NCAAs (maybe final 4).
Lux et veritas
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Very interesting conclusion, most people see Syracuse as safely in. Maybe the last of the teams safely in, but safely in nonetheless.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Stop. Syracuse is in. Maybe they blew a game at the Dome, but they are surely in. Last Team in comes down to Cornell, Towson, and Hopkins, and if we see alot of upsets in the league tournaments, possibly, if we are lucky, only 1 gets in. I sure hope my beloved Cornell can pull off a miracle this weekend, and beat #3 and #2. Nailbiting time here in Ithaca.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Cornell will have to shoot 40% and be at 60 % in saves to have a shot. Emo has to execute. Your not going to see the ball. Last game, 14-8 after three quarters. Plus they have some people w seasoning/experience.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
As a Syracuse fan I can certainly admit that the UNC loss was a killer when it comes to seeding and cost SU a chance to maybe get up to a 4 or 5 seed had things broken right and probably will cost them a home game period. Still I don't see any scenario where SU isn't safely in. They/We don't have the multiple top 5 wins that we usually do but we do have one over Duke and own a win over pretty much every bubble team ie Cornell, Hopkins, Rutty, SU also had a top 10 RPI and top 5/6 SOS. There in.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
As of now Syracuse's at-large odds are ranked 11th on this list at laxbytes:JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:47 am As a Syracuse fan I can certainly admit that the UNC loss was a killer when it comes to seeding and cost SU a chance to maybe get up to a 4 or 5 seed had things broken right and probably will cost them a home game period. Still I don't see any scenario where SU isn't safely in. They/We don't have the multiple top 5 wins that we usually do but we do have one over Duke and own a win over pretty much every bubble team ie Cornell, Hopkins, Rutty, SU also had a top 10 RPI and top 5/6 SOS. There in.
http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
Hope for no upsets in the league tournaments.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
RPI is ridiculous. Because there are only 70 plus teams, it's harder to see. And even with D3, it's worse but not clearly flawed. And then you do it with HS and it's clear as day. Come Sunday, we'll need a tool that allows for fine-tuning and RPI is not that tool.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
What is your objection to RPI. What sort of problems do you see it causing?admin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:55 am RPI is ridiculous. Because there are only 70 plus teams, it's harder to see. And even with D3, it's worse but not clearly flawed. And then you do it with HS and it's clear as day. Come Sunday, we'll need a tool that allows for fine-tuning and RPI is not that tool.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Look @ Maryland’s resume. A team who has been top5 all year has a win over PENN. Villanova is not getting in, just lost to Providence. People question SU. Should Maryland have a home game?
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
conceptually, if we look at my 10-2 record vs. teams that are 10-2 who beat teams that are 10-2, i must be pretty good. but this isn't necessarily true. for HS teams, it's a mess. there are 10-2 teams that plays 10-2s that play 10-2s that are awful. Conversely, there are 6-6 teams that play 6-6s that play 6-6s that are pretty good and most certainly better than these 10-2s. So, you might say, but this is only true because a team is 10-2 in Iowa while a team is 6-6 in NY/MD and they have zero contact with each other. and this is true but... I think this phenomena is only exaggerated with HS lacrosse with so many disparate teams. i.e. This phenomena is also true for D1 Men. It's just less obvious.
Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
Mr. Putt, I think so. not because they had such an amazing season but because amazing is relative.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
No offense to laxbytes but its hard to take that seriously when they have Cornell with a higher at large % then Syracuse. I would be shocked if Syracuse wasn't in the tournament regardless of what happens in the league tournamentsGobigred wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 9:24 amAs of now Syracuse's at-large odds are ranked 11th on this list at laxbytes:JeremyCuse wrote: ↑Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:47 am As a Syracuse fan I can certainly admit that the UNC loss was a killer when it comes to seeding and cost SU a chance to maybe get up to a 4 or 5 seed had things broken right and probably will cost them a home game period. Still I don't see any scenario where SU isn't safely in. They/We don't have the multiple top 5 wins that we usually do but we do have one over Duke and own a win over pretty much every bubble team ie Cornell, Hopkins, Rutty, SU also had a top 10 RPI and top 5/6 SOS. There in.
http://laxbytes.com/2019/binmenstats/ncaapb01.php
Hope for no upsets in the league tournaments.
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Re: 2019 Bracketology Thread
What I'm seeing from this thread and other sites is basically if Loyola, Towson, anyone but Rutgers and anyone but Brown win those 4 conferences there is no bubble so to speak. Hopkins/Cornell are the last two at larges and are far better than Ohio State or the Big East losers so there is no real decision. If Towson loses to UMass it gets interesting between those three teams and if Loyola loses then one of Hopkins or Cornell misses out. Hopkins winning again Thursday probably puts them solidly in and also drops Maryland out of the seeds possibly. All this to say the biggest game of the weekend if it gets there will be Towson vs UMass.