All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

...& we'd be as capable of defending our shores as the Argentinians were in seizing the Falklands from the Brits.

obtw. Should we protect Guam ?

[a fan]

Unlike Ukraine, my friends & I served in a military determined to deter the USSR & to prevent them from being able to sieze 20% of our territory.

Right. One reason. Yep, you can play games, and tell me about other details about each war until the cows come home. Or times where we sat back and did nothing because of x, y, z....but we never abandoned that underlying reason.

One, singular, solitary reason for 40+ years of foreign policy.

The point I've made, but which you've misunderstood, is that we could have held that same policy, and NOT gone into Korea or Vietnam.



And "unlike Ukraine"....you lost me.........what do you think they're fighting for?


I think I need to remind you for like the 10th time that I'm the one guy on the board who thinks that Biden should have done the same thing Obama did about Crimea when it came to Ukraine....levy sanctions, and don't lift a finger militarily. You're acting as though I believe otherwise.

[a fan]

...& we'd be as capable of defending our shores as the Argentinians were in seizing the Falklands from the Brits.

This is based on....what? You lost me.

China has invaded no one in a generation plus. Do you think they're incapable of defending their homeland?

obtw. Should we protect Guam ?

Same answer I've given since I've been on the forum: we should protect countries where we have a treaty-bound responsibility to do so.

If they're important to defend? Great news: Sign and ratify a treaty. Just as the Constitution says, instead of the opinion of some CIA flunky in a field office making $50k a year.

[a fan]

All wars are the same. One size fits all. The SDSU prof was right.

You forgot to explain how it's possible that China hasn't invaded Taiwan yet.

Or how arming Taiwan would deter China, while at the same time, Putin wouldn't care if the US armed Ukraine.


Arms that shut down Putin's advance in its tracks.

Let's hear it. Explain away.

Still waiting.

[old salt]

UnlIke Ukraine ==> Taiwan has been preparing to defend themselves against the PRC since the end of WW II.

[old salt]

All wars are the same. One size fits all. The SDSU prof was right.

You forgot to explain how it's possible that China hasn't invaded Taiwan yet.

Or how arming Taiwan would deter China, while at the same time, Putin wouldn't care if the US armed Ukraine.


Arms that shut down Putin's advance in its tracks.

Let's hear it. Explain away.

Still waiting.

Slow down. Let me catch up. As I added up the page :

390 US supplied Javelins weren't the only thing that blunted the Russian invasion. It was the Ukrainians use of their Soviet legacy armaments, enabled by 7 years of US military training & tactical intel.

Read up the page. The CIA director answered your Taiwan question.

I'm done. Too repetitive.

[a fan]

All wars are the same. One size fits all. The SDSU prof was right.

You forgot to explain how it's possible that China hasn't invaded Taiwan yet.

Or how arming Taiwan would deter China, while at the same time, Putin wouldn't care if the US armed Ukraine.


Arms that shut down Putin's advance in its tracks.

Let's hear it. Explain away.

Still waiting.

Slow down. Let me catch up. As I added up the page :

390 US supplied Javelins weren't the only thing that blunted the Russian invasion. It was the Ukrainians use of their Soviet legacy armaments, enabled by 7 years of US military training & tactical intel.

Read up the page. The CIA director answered your Taiwan question.

I'm done. Too repetitive.

It's repetitive because you're using circular logic. Taiwan wasn't invaded because of decades of fortifying defenses------>so then why does the US need to arm them so much more?---------->because if we don't, China will invade------->so why haven't they invaded at any point over the last few decades?----------->Taiwan wasn't invaded because of decades of fortifying defenses.

You know, it's ok to say you just don't know why they haven't invaded, and that they might (or are even likely) to do just fine if the US does nothing whatsoever, and end the conversation.

This is why we go round and round. You won't cop to circular logic that makes no sense. So I rephrase to give you the chance to stop being silly.

So....I'm done.

[old salt]

It's not circular logic. China was not militarily able to invade earlier. They're still getting there. Their military buildup has been remarkable.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s ... ond-Taiwan

[MDlaxfan76]

RFK Jr is right on this one ...& his stance on vaccines has nothing to do with this issue.
Other than that, he has a progressive agenda that Dems & libs should love.

RFK Jr is a bozo, a nutcase. Glad to see you want to be aligned with him...

That's why the Dems should love him. I'm surprised AOC & the Squad haven't endorsed him yet. He'd shred Biden in a debate.

Nope, he's not remotely close to centrist or 'progressive' Dem, nor even 'far left', he's simply a bozo, a nutcase.
The Dems have shown no appetite for embracing actual nutcases.

It embarrasses me to be a member of a party which has done so, though it more embarrasses me that the GOP embraces lying and threats of violence so happily. That's crazy.

[PizzaSnake]

RFK Jr is right on this one ...& his stance on vaccines has nothing to do with this issue.
Other than that, he has a progressive agenda that Dems & libs should love.

RFK Jr is a bozo, a nutcase. Glad to see you want to be aligned with him...

That's why the Dems should love him. I'm surprised AOC & the Squad haven't endorsed him yet. He'd shred Biden in a debate.

Nope, he's not remotely close to centrist or 'progressive' Dem, nor even 'far left', he's simply a bozo, a nutcase.
The Dems have shown no appetite for embracing actual nutcases.

It embarrasses me to be a member of a party which has done so, though it more embarrasses me that the GOP embraces lying and threats of violence so happily. That's crazy.

Another strange fruit of Prohibition. In fairness, not all of Edward’s progeny have been duds. This one sure is though…

[MDlaxfan76]

Salty: "Do you disagree with our defense of democracy & capitalism vs communism ?"

Actually, it was authoritarian aggression which deserved cold and at times hot response.
We also needed to compete with the ideology of state controlled economics, but it was always the more important battle between authoritarianism and democracy, not the disagreement between the ideologies of state-communism and capitalism.

Do you disagree with our defense of democracy and the rule of law vs authoritarian aggression???

That's what is at stake in this conflict, and it's a harbinger of other potential such conflicts.

IMO, it's immensely in our national interest!

I don't think I received an answer to my question above.

On the issue of the morale of the two militaries, this most recent rant from Wagner head is revealing of what may happen:

Wagner boss fumes that Russian brigade "fled" Bakhmut area, allowing Ukrainians to seize territory
From CNN's Tim Lister and Olga Voitovych

While Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin has frequently poured scorn on Russia’s Defense Ministry and its leadership, he has not previously accused Russian units of running from battle and allowing Ukrainian forces to recapture territory.

But in another expletive-laden tirade released on the same day that the Kremlin commemorated victory over Nazi Germany, Prigozhin said one Russian brigade had abandoned its positions south of Bakhmut, leading to many casualties among his fighters.

In comments Tuesday, Prigozhin said “one of the units of the Ministry of Defense fled from one of our flanks, abandoning their positions. They all fled and [laid] bare a front nearly 2 kilometers [1.25 miles] wide and 500 meters [1,640ft] deep.”

Prighozhin said that the “72nd brigade f***ed up three square kilometers (1.1 miles) today, on which I had about 500 people killed. Because it was a strategic bridgehead. They just ran the hell out of there.”

The 72nd Brigade (or Separate Motorized Regiment as it is sometimes called) is part of the Russian military’s Western Military District.

As for soldiers fleeing, Prigozhin said: "The fish rots from the head. A soldier leaves the trenches because it is not necessary to die [as] useless. A soldier may die, but a soldier should not die because of the utter stupidity of his leadership.”

Speaking to Russian media, Prigozhin reiterated that Wagner had planned to leave the area because its units had inadequate ammunition – a decision postponed when a promise was made that supplies would be sent by May 9, he said.

“During the day of May 8-9, 2023, the required amount of ammunition was not issued,” Prigozhin said.

Separately, a prominent Russian military blogger, Anastasiya Kashevarova, has reported a complete lack of communication in the Bakhmut area between Wagner and Russian regular forces (72nd Brigade.)

She wrote on Telegram: “The 72nd has a ban on working with the ‘orchestra’ [Wagner] and Wagner is too proud.”

Often, she added, a brigade does not know who is on its right or left. “There is no single command that would be respected by all without exception, “ she added. “Complete disunity of the front…the enemy is using it.”

The Ukrainian military has confirmed that its forces have made gains south of Bakhmut – a dramatic turn of events in an area where gains and losses have usually been measured in several feet.

The Ukrainian Third Assault Brigade, which has advanced in the area, spoke of eliminating dozens of Russian soldiers, and released video showing its tanks, supported by infantry, overrunning Russian trenches.

Some background: In an explosive, expletive-laden rant last week, Prigozhin appeared in front of dozens of his dead soldiers and blamed Russia’s military leadership for “tens of thousands” of Wagner casualties.

In late April, he threatened to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut if Moscow didn’t provide more ammunition. Prigozhin later backtracked on his threat after receiving promises of more ammunition.

So, maybe supporting Ukraine a bit longer makes sense??? Maybe we shouldn't be in a rush to claim Ukraine can't push the Russians out??? Maybe we shouldn't provide aid and comfort to the aggressor by threatening withdrawal of support if victory isn't instantaneous???

[jhu72]

Poland appears to be renaming Kaliningrad to its historical polish name Królewiec. Russia throwing a hissy fit.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... 25f5&ei=15

[PizzaSnake]

Poland appears to be renaming Kaliningrad to its historical polish name Królewiec. Russia throwing a hissy fit.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... 25f5&ei=15

Fcuk Russia.

[a fan]

It's not circular logic. China was not militarily able to invade earlier. They're still getting there. Their military buildup has been remarkable.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s ... ond-Taiwan

The Chinese Army can't invade a dinky Island? Or "take it over" by installing and bankrolling corrupt leaders ala Putin?

Yeah, ok.

You're telling me that at no point over this many decades of no invasion...... it has never occurred to you or any of these six figure policy wonks that "hey, maybe the reason they haven't invaded or installed corrupt leaders in Taiwan is that they don't care enough to do that".

Naaaaaaah. Let's arm them more, ratchet up the tension, and harass the Chinese in their home region by being the guys who arm them.

And "coincidentally", these military wonks "opinions" leads to more spending, and a bigger US military that's based----once again----by wildly uninformed guesses by overpaid policy wonks who think the solution to every problem they can invent is "more bombs and war".

Wow, what a "coincidence".

[old salt]

Salty: "Do you disagree with our defense of democracy & capitalism vs communism ?"

Actually, it was authoritarian aggression which deserved cold and at times hot response.
We also needed to compete with the ideology of state controlled economics, but it was always the more important battle between authoritarianism and democracy, not the disagreement between the ideologies of state-communism and capitalism.

Do you disagree with our defense of democracy and the rule of law vs authoritarian aggression???

I don't think I received an answer to my question above.

I thought it was a rhetorical question -- just another virtue signal platitude.

It's a catchy slogan used to sell employing military power when we don't have a sufficient threat to our national interests or security to justify it.

It's a fig leaf to cover a war to attrite Russia's military, promote regime change in Moscow, open a new market & create another EU member.

In '91, Jim Baker told us our defense of democracy & rule of law vs authoritarian aggression in the Persian Gulf was to secure American jobs.

[old salt]

It's not circular logic. China was not militarily able to invade earlier. They're still getting there. Their military buildup has been remarkable.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s ... ond-Taiwan

The Chinese Army can't invade a dinky Island? Or "take it over" by installing and bankrolling corrupt leaders ala Putin?

Yeah, ok.

You're telling me that at no point over this many decades of no invasion...... it has never occurred to you or any of these six figure policy wonks that "hey, maybe the reason they haven't invaded or installed corrupt leaders in Taiwan is that they don't care enough to do that".

Naaaaaaah. Let's arm them more, ratchet up the tension, and harass the Chinese in their home region by being the guys who arm them.

And "coincidentally", these military wonks "opinions" leads to more spending, and a bigger US military that's based----once again----by wildly uninformed guesses by overpaid policy wonks who think the solution to every problem they can invent is "more bombs and war".

Wow, what a "coincidence".

China's military vs Taiwan's military was not capable enough to risk it. That is changing.
China was not yet dredging up island fortresses in the China Seas, building aircraft carriers, carrier killer ballistic missiles & satellite killing satellites.
We were not this critically dependent on microchips from Taiwan.

[a fan]

China's military vs Taiwan's military was not capable enough to risk it.

If this is true..... China is zero threat to the US.

China was not yet dredging up island fortresses in the China Seas, building aircraft carriers, carrier killer ballistic missiles & satellite killing satellites.

China couldn't wipe out Taiwan in the 80s?

Or use their heads, and bankroll their guys, and install puppets?

Sorry, agree to disagree. You're stating opinion as if it's a fact. We were told how amazing Putin's army was all of a year or so ago. Not buying the guessing game that is US military intel. It's been wrong too many times.

We were not this critically dependent on microchips from Taiwan.

That's because we didn't have one single policy wonk in DC over the last 20 years that's smart enough to remove that as an issue. At least Biden finally woke up, and got the ball rolling. To his credit. We'll see if they manage that correctly.


Same mistake we made with the ME, and our supposed dependence on their oil. No one was smart enough to call buffalo bagels and push back when a different policy wonk claimed "we NEED oil from this region".

This is why we discuss these things. AT SOME POINT we have to stop making these same dumb economic mistakes, and use America's GDP smarter....by learning from past mistakes.

I'm not holding my breath.

[old salt]

China's military vs Taiwan's military was not capable enough to risk it.

If this is true..... China is zero threat to the US.

China was not yet dredging up island fortresses in the China Seas, building aircraft carriers, carrier killer ballistic missiles & satellite killing satellites.

China couldn't wipe out Taiwan in the 80s?

Or use their heads, and bankroll their guys, and install puppets?

Sorry, agree to disagree. You're stating opinion as if it's a fact. We were told how amazing Putin's army was all of a year or so ago. Not buying the guessing game that is US military intel. It's been wrong too many times.

We were not this critically dependent on microchips from Taiwan.

That's because we didn't have one single policy wonk in DC over the last 20 years that's smart enough to remove that as an issue. At least Biden finally woke up, and got the ball rolling. To his credit. We'll see if they manage that correctly.


Same mistake we made with the ME, and our supposed dependence on their oil. No one was smart enough to call buffalo bagels and push back when a different policy wonk claimed "we NEED oil from this region".

This is why we discuss these things. AT SOME POINT we have to stop making these same dumb economic mistakes, and use America's GDP smarter....by learning from past mistakes.

I'm not holding my breath.

Second guessing hindsight is flawless. That doesn't close the microchip gap.
China's growing military capability is not theoretical.
Again, I want to SELL Taiwan weapons & shift some of our current force deployment from Europe & the ME, to W Pac, without growing the force overall.

[a fan]

Second guessing hindsight is flawless. That doesn't close the microchip gap.

It's not hindsight. Biden acted BEFORE it was too late. And you can't tip the hat at him, and we both know why.

How many years before Taiwan is irrelevant? They're on the clock now before the world reaches the point where they don't care what China does.


The funny thing is, you understand this point IMMEDIATELY when it comes to Ukraine: you can EASILY deduce that the reward ain't worth the risk.

Yet with Taiwan? You're back to being unable and/or unwilling to do that math.

Biden is moving the risk v. reward math without firing a shot. Smart.

China's growing military capability is not theoretical.

I was speaking to their recent strength. And you're telling me the can't take one single, small island right now, and that's why they haven't invaded.

You can't have two opposing assessments: either they are easily strong enough to take Taiwan, OR there is NO CHANCE they pose a real threat to the US Military.

Pick one. Don't care which one.

Again, I want to SELL Taiwan weapons & shift some of our current force deployment from Europe & the ME, to W Pac, without growing the force overall.

And I don't. Let the EU sell them stuff. Let THEM annoy the Chinese. The risk v. reward ain't there for me, any more than it is for both of us when it comes to Ukraine.

[old salt]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... -invasion/

Today, Chinese military aircraft regularly cross the median line, an unofficial boundary that both sides respected for years to prevent accidental conflict in the 110-mile-wide Taiwan Strait. The PLA warplanes are a reminder of China’s promises that it will one day annex the island by force if residents do not willingly submit to rule by Beijing.

... When the 66 F-16s made by Lockheed Martin arrive, Taiwan will have more than 200 of the fourth-generation fighter jets, one of the region’s largest fleets.
The highly maneuverable aircraft are able to detect, track and attack targets over great distances and are considered central to resisting a Chinese military invasion.

Xi’s looming third term in China raises threat of war over Taiwan

During his training over the past year, Cao has also registered a new sense of danger.
“When tensions were less severe, we were hearing about the expelling mainland aircraft about once every two weeks. When things were worse, we were hearing it every two or three days,” he said, referring to broadcasts on the emergency radio channel.
“Hearing it, I was shocked. It makes you feel like this battle of the future may actually happen right here,” he said.

The incursions of Chinese warplanes form a major part of Beijing’s use of “gray zone tactics,” coercive measures just short of conflict that are meant to intimidate and exhaust an opponent.

PLA planes flew into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone at least 1,732 times last year, according to a Washington Post analysis of Defense Ministry data, up from fewer than 1,000 incursions in 2021 and fewer than 400 in 2020.

These gray zone tactics are not just for intimidation. They are preventing senior pilots like Hsiao, now an instructor, from teaching the next generation of fighter pilots. Hsiao has had to stop training twice in the past two months to wait for the PLA planes to leave before resuming.

Air force officials said they are confident they can fill the gap by paying bonuses to retain pilots nearing retirement age. The air force is also recruiting military officers who served in different branches to apply for pilot training, as well as allowing pilots who fly other types of fighter jets to switch to F-16s, according to officials.

Asked whether he believes he will see war in the Taiwan Strait in his lifetime, Hsiao grows serious. “People said Russia and Ukraine wouldn’t go to war, but they did. We have to be prepared.” What’s important, he said, is showing the willingness to resist.

“We are a sovereign country. We are determined to defend it and not give up easily,” he said. “Why did other countries support Ukraine? It’s because they saw their determination to defend their country.”

Comment : Here’s the deal - Taiwan makes 90% of the world’s advanced computer chips. If China takes Taiwan, the United States can kiss its military superiority good bye, as a modern military needs these advanced chips to be even minimally combat effective.