How I currently see the NCAA tournament field heading into the conference tournaments... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/cppwksM
Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
Ivy League: 3 (Pennsylvania, Yale, Cornell)
Big Ten: 2 (Penn State, Maryland)
Colonial: 2 (Massachusetts, Towson)
I currently have 9 teams (6 in the at-large section plus PSU/Penn/Loyola) listed as "locks," even though there are only 8 at-large bids . This means that if all hell breaks loose in all three of the Big Ten (Rutgers/JHU), Ivy League (Brown/Cornell), Patriot League (anyone but Loyola), someone who looks safe right now is going to be staying home.
There are four leagues that are certainly one bid leagues: America East, MAAC, NEC, SoCon. There are four teams still playing for one spot in each of these leagues.
I would say the Big East is almost 99% surely going to be a one bid league as well. It's very difficult to see a path for Villanova after their loss to Providence last week. If Denver beats Villanova and then loses to Georgetown in the finals, maybe they have an outside shot at an at-large bid. This is the only reason that I didn't include the Big East in the above statement.
And now for bubble talk. The most number of teams that I can see getting at-large berths from this list is TWO. However, this number dwindles with any of the AQ upsets that I mentioned above. All rankings are RPI.
#12 Cornell (10-4)
Best 5 wins: #8 Notre Dame, #9 Towson, #23 Princeton, #26 Lehigh, #28 Hobart
Losses: #1 Penn State, #4 Yale, #5 Pennsylvania, #10 Syracuse
Next game: vs. #4 Yale
Outlook: I believe that this is clearly the strongest current resume of any team on the bubble. They hold the head-to-head victory over their current nearest competition (Towson) and have no even remotely bad losses. I see Cornell as a near-tournament lock with a win over Yale on Friday. With a loss, though, they will be sweating come selection Sunday, as their fate will hinge on what everyone else does this week.
#9 Towson (9-4)
Best 5 wins: #6 Loyola, #11 Johns Hopkins, #17 Georgetown, #27 Delaware, #31 Drexel
Losses: #3 Duke, #12 Cornell, #14 Denver, #18 Massachusetts
Next game: vs. #27 Delaware
Outlook: Towson is currently bubble in in my projection, but they have very little opportunity to improve this resume for an at-large bid, as Delaware does not move the needle very much. Against other bubble teams, Towson is a mixed bag with a dominant win over Johns Hopkins in the first game of the season, a lopsided loss to Cornell in a neutral site game, and a low-scoring sloppy home loss to Denver. If Towson loses to Delaware, I think their season is over. With a win over Delaware and then a loss in the CAA championship game to UMass, this team will likely be right on the cut line - either the last team in or the first team out.
#11 Johns Hopkins (7-6)
Best 5 wins: #7 Maryland, #16 North Carolina, #22 Rutgers, #23 Princeton, #27 Delaware
Losses: #1 Penn State, #2 Virginia, #6 Loyola, #9 Towson, #10 Syracuse, #13 Ohio State
Next game: vs. #7 Maryland
Outlook: This Johns Hopkins team was lacking a signature win until Saturday night, when they finally found one by beating Maryland. Seven losses would be by far the most of any team being considered for an at-large berth, but there are no bad losses on that list. Another win over Maryland in the Big Ten tournament will put this team solidly in the field, but it will be extremely dicey without it. In my eyes, this resume currently clearly lags behind those of Cornell and Towson. I don't see any way that Hopkins can leapfrog Cornell without another win over Maryland, so, if Hopkins loses round 2, the Blue Jays need Towson to win the CAA to open up another at-large spot or for Delaware to upset Towson to weaken Towson's resume... or the Jays' season will almost certainly end earlier than they are accustomed to.
#13 Ohio State (8-4)
Best 5 wins: #8 Notre Dame, #11 Johns Hopkins, #18 Massachusetts, #24 Boston University, #35 Bucknell
Losses: #1 Penn State, #7 Maryland, #22 Rutgers, #34 Michigan
Next game: (none)
Outlook: The loss to Michigan was a double whammy. It was clearly the worst loss that any bubble team has suffered, and it also keeps Ohio State on the sideline this week, while all other bubble teams will have a chance to further improve their resume. This Ohio State team needs a lot of help to get into the NCAA tournament: 1) PSU/UMCP win the Big Ten, 2) Loyola wins PL, 3) Towson AQ or loss to Delaware, 4) Hopkins loss to UMCP. If all of that happens, this team may have a chance of being the last team in the tournament, and that's still not a sure thing.
#14 Denver (9-4)
Best 5 wins: #9 Towson, #16 North Carolina, #17 Georgetown, #21 Air Force, #38 Marquette
Losses: #3 Duke, #8 Notre Dame, #15 Villanova, #23 Princeton
Next game: #15 Villanova
Outlook: This is the most longshot at-large bid of any that I'm willing to even discuss, and Denver probably should approach the Big East tournament thinking that they are AQ or bust. For this team to even have a backdoor chance at an at-large bid, a win over Villanova on Thursday is a must. The biggest thing that this Denver team has going for it is that Denver has the head-to-head over Towson if it somehow comes down to those two teams for the last spot. See all that Ohio State needs to happen for it, and that's also the gist of what Denver needs, but I would say additionally needs Georgetown to beat Providence.
