NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread

[CU77]

Final RPI top 16 from https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd

rpi-final.jpg (209.93 KiB) Viewed 877 times

[HopFan16]

Yale, Cornell, and Penn are closer than I think anyone is talking about.

Cornell
RPI: 8
SOS: 21
wins vs. 1-5: none
wins vs. 6-10: Yale
wins vs. 11-20: Penn, Army, Princeton
bad losses: Harvard

Yale
RPI: 9
SOS: 16
wins vs. 1-5: none
wins vs. 6-10: Denver, Cornell
wins vs. 11-20: Villanova, BU
bad losses: none

Penn
RPI: 11
SOS: 13
wins vs. 1-5: Georgetown
wins vs. 6-10: Yale
wins vs. 11-20: Princeton
bad losses: Brown

I think they probably still put Cornell and Yale in, but there is an argument there for Penn, especially over Yale given the head-to-head. They're the only team of the three with a top 5 win. Though Yale has the higher RPI, one additional top 20 win, and no bad losses. Will totally depend which metrics the committee prioritizes. When in doubt I'd stick with RPI but who knows.

[a fan]

Final RPI top 16 from https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd


rpi-final.jpg

When I see that list, and see all the teams with five+ losses, I'm reminded what a great year it's been for D1 lacrosse.

And this NCAA tournament is going to be great.

[CU77]

My prediction:

1. Duke v Delaware/Marist
2. Virginia v Richmond
3. Notre Dame v Bryant
4. Maryland v Utah
5. Penn State v Army
6. Hopkins v Princeton
7. Georgetown v Yale
8. Cornell v Michigan

[jrn19]

The problem is you can’t really split the atom with these teams in Penn’s favor

If you think Penn has a better case than Yale, then you’re down to Yale and Cornell. Yale might have a better case than Cornell?

Except Cornell beat Penn. Penn’s case is maybe better than Cornell, but it’s so close that a H2H win for Cornell should put Cornell in.

So Cornell is in. So we’re down to Penn and Yale. Penn should be in. Alright.

But wait. Yale has a better case than Cornell. So Yale has to go in.

When you have 3 teams for 2 spots the construction of the 2 teams has to make sense and I’m not sure fitting Penn in there makes sense.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Looks like earlier reports that the Ivy League would only get 1 team in proved to be false.

[old salt]

To maximize QF attendance, UVA, MD, JHU & Gtown all need to be in the Annapolis QF bracket.

...raise the parking fee to $20/car & sell designated tailgating spots.

[Farfromgeneva]

Final RPI top 16 from https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd


rpi-final.jpg

So BU is the cutoff on a QW. Loyola, Cuse and Richmond just on other side.

GTown sliding into 5 over UMD seems like it has implications as well.

Feels like a meaningful gap in nominal value between Penn/Denver/Yale

[Finster]

Final RPI top 16 from https://pro.lacrossereference.com/rpi-d ... ifospeivmd


rpi-final.jpg

When I see that list, and see all the teams with five+ losses, I'm reminded what a great year it's been for D1 lacrosse.

And this NCAA tournament is going to be great.

Correct.

When the season began, I caught UVA and Harvard, expecting an OT. Instead, UVA held back not pushing the score above 30. I was so amazed by their offense, I neglected to consider that their defense was giving up 22 goals. So I made the classic error of seeing only what I wanted to see, UVA’s offense, declaring then and there they’d go undefeated. So of course they lost 3 games. lol.

This ‘23 year has seem some incredible teams suffer multiple losses. I truly think any team of the top 8 can win the Natty this year.

Good post, a fan.

[CU77]

To maximize QF attendance, UVA, MD, JHU & Gtown all need to be in the Annapolis QF bracket.

I wonder if the committee takes this into account. In my bracket above, this QF would not be possible, but swap #5 PSU and #6 JHU, and it would.

In hockey, the committee explicitly does take attendance into account, and switches seeds accordingly (within a particular set of rules for what they can and cannot do).

[Finster]

To maximize QF attendance, UVA, MD, JHU & Gtown all need to be in the Annapolis QF bracket.

I wonder if the committee takes this into account. In my bracket above, this QF would not be possible, but swap #5 PSU and #6 JHU, and it would.

In hockey, the committee explicitly does take attendance into account, and switches seeds accordingly (within a particular set of rules for what they can and cannot do).

CU: I think the Big Red has a run in them again this year. A motivation factor.

[old salt]

To maximize QF attendance, UVA, MD, JHU & Gtown all need to be in the Annapolis QF bracket.

I wonder if the committee takes this into account. In my bracket above, this QF would not be possible, but swap #5 PSU and #6 JHU, and it would.

In hockey, the committee explicitly does take attendance into account, and switches seeds accordingly (within a particular set of rules for what they can and cannot do).

...when I saw your bracket, that prompted my post.
I know they factor in travel distance & have a limit on the number of plane trips.
I would think they follow the same protocol as hockey re. attendance.

[laxjuris]

The problem is you can’t really split the atom with these teams in Penn’s favor

If you think Penn has a better case than Yale, then you’re down to Yale and Cornell. Yale might have a better case than Cornell?

Except Cornell beat Penn. Penn’s case is maybe better than Cornell, but it’s so close that a H2H win for Cornell should put Cornell in.

So Cornell is in. So we’re down to Penn and Yale. Penn should be in. Alright.

But wait. Yale has a better case than Cornell. So Yale has to go in.

When you have 3 teams for 2 spots the construction of the 2 teams has to make sense and I’m not sure fitting Penn in there makes sense.

As part of the hair-splitting exercise, Cornell winning the regular season league title outright should also tip the scale in its favor.

[Lager]

Penn absolutely shouldn't get in over Cornell. Unfortunately, their "top 5" win over Gtown forces a discussion to be had. I put top 5 in quotations because I don't really think Gtown is a top 5 caliber team. Still, I think Cornell is safely in, probably Yale too.

[Burntheboats20]

Penn absolutely shouldn't get in over Cornell. Unfortunately, their "top 5" win over Gtown forces a discussion to be had. I put top 5 in quotations because I don't really think Gtown is a top 5 caliber team. Still, I think Cornell is safely in, probably Yale too.

Seeing a lot of folks with the same opinion on GTown, but have yet to see a great explanation as to why they are not deserving of a top 5-6 seed. They only real knock is that they don’t have a top 5 win, fair. They also don’t have a real head scratching loss the way almost every other team does. That should be considered as well - as it is in RPI.

I also think them being the only of the top 8-10 teams to win an AQ in their conference tournament should mean something, otherwise the committee sets the precedent that success in your conference postseason is secondary. I agree it isn’t the end all be all, but it should matter. Should a 5 loss Maryland team who got slaughtered in their conference championship game really be seeded above them?

GTown has 2 potential top 5-7 PLL draft picks and depth all over the field. They could absolutely surprise some people with a run here.

[Lager]

Penn absolutely shouldn't get in over Cornell. Unfortunately, their "top 5" win over Gtown forces a discussion to be had. I put top 5 in quotations because I don't really think Gtown is a top 5 caliber team. Still, I think Cornell is safely in, probably Yale too.

Seeing a lot of folks with the same opinion on GTown, but have yet to see a great explanation as to why they are not deserving of a top 5-6 seed. They only real knock is that they don’t have a top 5 win, fair. They also don’t have a real head scratching loss the way almost every other team does. That should be considered as well - as it is in RPI.

I also think them being the only of the top 8-10 teams to win an AQ in their conference tournament should mean something, otherwise the committee sets the precedent that success in your conference postseason is secondary. I agree it isn’t the end all be all, but it should matter. Should a 5 loss Maryland team who got slaughtered in their conference championship game really be seeded above them?

GTown has 2 potential top 5-7 PLL draft picks and depth all over the field. They could absolutely surprise some people with a run here.

They are certainly a solid team. However, they lost to all the good teams they played early on, then ran through a relatively weak conference. I think Gtown is a cushier first round match up than a top ACC squad or even Michigan right now.

[DocBarrister]

To maximize QF attendance, UVA, MD, JHU & Gtown all need to be in the Annapolis QF bracket.

I wonder if the committee takes this into account. In my bracket above, this QF would not be possible, but swap #5 PSU and #6 JHU, and it would.

In hockey, the committee explicitly does take attendance into account, and switches seeds accordingly (within a particular set of rules for what they can and cannot do).

I can see Maryland or GT leap frogging over Hopkins. I don’t see both teams doing so.

I think the Blue Jays will be seeded #4 or #5, probably #5.

DocBarrister

[CU77]

I also think them being the only of the top 8-10 teams to win an AQ in their conference tournament should mean something, otherwise the committee sets the precedent that success in your conference postseason is secondary.

That precedent was set long ago. Unlike the official criteria of many other NCAA sports, lacrosse does NOT include weighing late-season wins (including conference championships) more highly than early-season wins, and this has been explicitly confirmed multiple times in past years by post-selection interviews with the committee chairs.

[Burntheboats20]

I also think them being the only of the top 8-10 teams to win an AQ in their conference tournament should mean something, otherwise the committee sets the precedent that success in your conference postseason is secondary.

That precedent was set long ago. Unlike the official criteria of many other NCAA sports, lacrosse does NOT include weighing late-season wins (including conference championships) more highly than early-season wins, and this has been explicitly confirmed multiple times in past years by post-selection interviews with the committee chairs.

Even so, the precedent has also been set that RPI is a huge driving factor (and also does not weight late season performance). GTown sits at 5 for RPI

[CU77]

A very plausible bracket from Patrick Stevens at USA Lax

https://usalaxmagazine.com/college/men/ ... projection

usalax.jpg (130.4 KiB) Viewed 461 times

This is the same as mine (above) except for the ordering of the three B1G teams, and this one makes sense from the point of view of quarterfinal attendance.