NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread

[molo]

Michigan has a pretty good February loss. In fact, they have only one bad loss.

[darkhaha]

Maryland: RPI - 6, SOS - 3, Top 20 Wins - 4 (including 2 Top 5)
Michigan: RPI - 12, SOS - 5, Top 20 Wins - 3

Maryland will be seeded higher than Michigan.

[MoralTerpitude]

I'm going to take a shot at the seeding.

1. Duke
2. UVa
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgetown
5. Maryland
6. Hopkins

If Yale wins tomorrow:
7. Yale
8. Penn State

If Yale loses tomorrow:
7. Penn State
8. Cornell

Why would Georgetown be seeded ahead of Hopkins?

Hop has the higher RPI and SOS, a top 5 win (GTown doesn't have one), more total top 20 wins, and the H2H victory. The resumes aren't particularly close and even if they were, Hopkins would get the tiebreaker thanks to the H2H.

That said, I could see an argument for:

4. Maryland
5. Hopkins
6. Georgetown

Georgetown hasn’t lost since February. I think there is a very good chance they get the 4 seed.

[rolldodge]

I'm going to take a shot at the seeding.

1. Duke
2. UVa
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgetown
5. Maryland
6. Hopkins

If Yale wins tomorrow:
7. Yale
8. Penn State

If Yale loses tomorrow:
7. Penn State
8. Cornell

Why would Georgetown be seeded ahead of Hopkins?

Hop has the higher RPI and SOS, a top 5 win (GTown doesn't have one), more total top 20 wins, and the H2H victory. The resumes aren't particularly close and even if they were, Hopkins would get the tiebreaker thanks to the H2H.

That said, I could see an argument for:

4. Maryland
5. Hopkins
6. Georgetown

Georgetown hasn’t lost since February. I think there is a very good chance they get the 4 seed.

“Lost since February” is not a criteria.

[wgdsr]

I'm going to take a shot at the seeding.

1. Duke
2. UVa
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgetown
5. Maryland
6. Hopkins

If Yale wins tomorrow:
7. Yale
8. Penn State

If Yale loses tomorrow:
7. Penn State
8. Cornell

Why would Georgetown be seeded ahead of Hopkins?

Hop has the higher RPI and SOS, a top 5 win (GTown doesn't have one), more total top 20 wins, and the H2H victory. The resumes aren't particularly close and even if they were, Hopkins would get the tiebreaker thanks to the H2H.

That said, I could see an argument for:

4. Maryland
5. Hopkins
6. Georgetown

Georgetown hasn’t lost since February. I think there is a very good chance they get the 4 seed.

notre dame won 6 in a row last year and didn't make the tournament. gtown hasn't beaten a top 10 team. they won't be the 4. judging by last year, they'll be the 6.

[Bluecollar]

If Princeton wins tomorrow, then Penn and Denver are both done for the season. But if Yale wins, which of Penn or Denver will be the last one in? Comparing the resumes below.

Denver
RPI - 10
SOS - 10
Top 5 wins - 0
Top 6-10 wins - 0
Top 11-20 wins - 4
Bad loss - Air Force (#25 RPI)
Wins v. teams in the tourney - 1, assuming Utah wins, 0 if they don't

Penn
RPI - 11
SOS - 14
Top 5 wins - 1
Top 6-10 wins - 1
Top 11-20 wins - 1
Wins v teams in the tourney - 2
Bad loss - Brown (#32)

This will come down to what the Committee prioritizes.

Do wins v. Top 5 & Top 10 matter more than RPI and SOS or vice versa.

If they priortize better wins, Penn will be in.

If they prioritize RPI and SOS or rewarding Tierney for his career, then it will be Denver.

[jrn19]

1. Virginia
2. Duke
3. Notre Dame
4. Maryland
5. Hopkins
6. Penn State
7. Georgetown
8. Yale

If Yale loses, swap in Michigan.

Georgetown could get the 6 instead of Penn State.

Duke could get the 1 instead of Virginia but bracket probably works easier with travel with Cavs at 1.

[jrn19]

If Princeton wins tomorrow, then Penn and Denver are both done for the season. But if Yale wins, which of Penn or Denver will be the last one in? Comparing the resumes below.

Denver
RPI - 10
SOS - 10
Top 5 wins - 0
Top 6-10 wins - 0
Top 11-20 wins - 4
Bad loss - Air Force (#25 RPI)
Wins v. teams in the tourney - 1, assuming Utah wins, 0 if they don't

Penn
RPI - 11
SOS - 14
Top 5 wins - 1
Top 6-10 wins - 1
Top 11-20 wins - 1
Wins v teams in the tourney - 2
Bad loss - Brown (#32)

This will come down to what the Committee prioritizes.

Do wins v. Top 5 & Top 10 matter more than RPI and SOS or vice versa.

If they priortize better wins, Penn will be in.

If they prioritize RPI and SOS or rewarding Tierney for his career, then it will be Denver.

If they do chose Penn, I hope someone asks them why they have Penn over Denver now when it's much more defensible to have Denver in when they had Denver over Penn last week when there was no argument whatsoever for Denver to over them

[AreaLax]

Here is the five-person committee:

Chair: Brandon MacNeill, Denver
Joe Breschi, North Carolina
Jordan Skolnick, Delaware
New: Randy Mearns, St. Bonaventure
New: Matthew Colagiavanni, Rutgers

[Burntheboats20]

Premature posting as there are obviously games to be played today - predicting wins for Yale, Utah, and Army In the below. Going based off of what appears to be the most likely scenario, not necessarily how I would rank. Not sure what all the rules around play-ins are, so forgive me if anything is off there. Wouldn’t be surprised if Penn got the nod over Denver for that last slot either. Factoring RPI in heavily for the last 5-6 teams.

Duke
UVA
ND
JHU
GTown
Yale
Penn State
Maryland
Cornell
Michigan
Denver
Army
Utah
Bryant
Richmond
Delaware/Marist

[Atticus]

Good effort, Burn!!

[10stone5]

Princeton doing their part to send Tierney to an earlier than expected retirement

On pace for 28 goals.

[MoralTerpitude]

Looking like only one AQ will be seeded. Nuts.

[laxfan1313]

Princeton doing their part to send Tierney to an earlier than expected retirement

On pace for 28 goals.

Too bad Tierney isn't miked up so we can hear his reaction live!

[Chousnake]

Princeton doing their part to send Tierney to an earlier than expected retirement

On pace for 28 goals.

I don't trust that Denver won't get a sentimentality bid, which is somewhat ironic given Tierney's less than sentimental disposition.

[joewillie78]

Here is my prediction with how I see them SEEDED. Not who will play who because of conference, travel etc.
1. Duke
2. Virginia
3. Notre Dame
4. Penn State
5. Maryland
6. John's Hopkins
7. Georgetown
8. Cornell
9. Michigan
10. Yale
11. Princeton
12. Army
13. Richmond
14. Delaware
15. Utah
16. Bryant
17. Marist

That's my NCAA field.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[pcowlax]

Princeton doing their part to send Tierney to an earlier than expected retirement

On pace for 28 goals.

I don't trust that Denver won't get a sentimentality bid, which is somewhat ironic given Tierney's less than sentimental disposition.

Heh. “Less than sentimental disposition” is a very accurate coda to Tierney

[Farfromgeneva]

Here is my prediction with how I see them SEEDED. Not who will play who because of conference, travel etc.
1. Duke
2. Virginia
3. Notre Dame
4. Penn State
5. Maryland
6. John's Hopkins
7. Georgetown
8. Cornell
9. Michigan
10. Yale
11. Princeton
12. Army
13. Richmond
14. Delaware
15. Utah
16. Bryant
17. Marist

That's my NCAA field.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

Think Pton is lower than Army and Del.

[MoralTerpitude]

It’s rare that no one earns the four seed, but unless GTown gets it, one of the B1G teams will have backed into it.

Not sure how this bracket could end up being controversial. There are trivialities like how the ACC teams will be ordered in the top 3, and who gets the 4 seed, but nearly every other position is pretty locked in, plus or minus a seed spot.

[Burntheboats20]

Here is my prediction with how I see them SEEDED. Not who will play who because of conference, travel etc.
1. Duke
2. Virginia
3. Notre Dame
4. Penn State
5. Maryland
6. John's Hopkins
7. Georgetown
8. Cornell
9. Michigan
10. Yale
11. Princeton
12. Army
13. Richmond
14. Delaware
15. Utah
16. Bryant
17. Marist

That's my NCAA field.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

I would have JHU and GTown slot in above PSU and UMD, but think it’s spot on other than that. I could see those four teams go in any order though.