THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[Hoponboard]

How did MD only wind up with 20 shots, 13 of which were on goal, and 11 went in?

Definitely take the W, but those are some WTFoxtrot numbers.

Which result in... 2 saves.

I would expect MD to shoot more often next time.

Presto. Terps shot a whopping 52% (11 of 21) and Darby only saved 18% (2 of 11) of their shots. Maryland has to be licking their chops thinking about Thursday’s rematch. Even you, Wombat, could have made two saves. Maryland only has to shoot ten more shots and they can score 19 goals in the tourney.

The 21 shots has to be the result of a massive possession advantage, because the Jays only had 4 CTs.

On a brighter note: No penalties.

What a difference a lot of Zinn makes on offense. The Hop offense looks athletic when Evan takes his runs. Cole, Connor, Forry, Alex, Epstein...all seemed to be playing faster.

Coulter and Blondell were difference makers on D. I will start a Go Fund Me page to help pay for Coulter’s tuition next year.

[DocBarrister]

I thought Ryan Coulter was phenomenal. Absolutely eye-popping range for a SSDM, with his head always on a swivel. Was he late sliding on that one goal? Marginally, but he was amazing in his first third quarter run and won a possession for the Blue Jays with a race to the sideline. Seriously, why the heck has he not seen more playing time? I am hoping he has another year of eligibility (didn’t appear in a game in 2016). He should be on a constant rotation with Jones and Hubler.

Zinn can beat his man almost at will. Heard he’s been injured much of the season. Whatever his status, he can clearly take regular runs on either the first or second midfield lines. His speed is elite ... just keep giving him more reps and his shots will eventually fall.

Thought Blondell did a nice job today. I suppose he’s part of the new effort to keep legs fresh on D by having Coulter, Zinn, and Blondell rotate in more at SSDM and LSM. Sure seemed to work.

Blue Jays did an excellent job on 50-50 gbs today. How often can we say that?!?

Finally, beautiful team offense today. Really worked hard together. Smith with 2 goals and 2 assists. DeSimone with a goal and an assist. Zinn had an assist, and probably should have had another. Williams with yet another hat trick and an assist. Marr with 1 and 1, but thought some of his best play was on ground balls. Concannon & Baskin with a goal each. Two best goals by Foley (great game) and Kuhn.

Oh, and that kid Epstein had 4 goals, 2 assists, 3 gbs, and now has 53 points as a freshman (*yawn*). Will likely be B1G freshman of the week for the fourth time (*zzzzzzzzz*).

This win helps, but I still think Hopkins needs the AQ to make the NCAA tournament. Blue Jays proved today they can play with and beat some of the best.

No rest for the weary. Beat Maryland on Thursday!

DocBarrister

[Wheels]

How did MD only wind up with 20 shots, 13 of which were on goal, and 11 went in?

Definitely take the W, but those are some WTFoxtrot numbers.

Which result in... 2 saves.

I would expect MD to shoot more often next time.

CRAB!

13 shots on goal. 14 turnovers. 4 assisted goals.

[51percentcorn]

How did MD only wind up with 20 shots, 13 of which were on goal, and 11 went in?

Definitely take the W, but those are some WTFoxtrot numbers.

Which result in... 2 saves.

I would expect MD to shoot more often next time.

CRAB!

13 shots on goal. 14 turnovers. 4 assisted goals.

The shot differential was a result of 4 things
- Narewski was a difference maker - one of those games where the face-off advantage really tells a story in the game
- Maryland's uncharacteristic sloppiness - not only 14 turnovers but ones that were hard to fathom from them - on at least two maybe 3 occasions the one Terp threw the ball - Oh 15-20 feet or more over his teammates head - they were right at the beginning of possessions too - helping Hopkins possession time
- Hopkins clear strategy to take clocks to the max in the second half
- Some hard work on ground balls and fortunate bounces - this season I always thought the ref twirled his arm for a clock reset way more for opponents than for the Jays - last night it went the other way - even though they didn't score on the possession - they got clock resets that extended a possession to almost 3 minutes (Dixon actually called that out)

Which leads to angst about the rematch. Maryland virtually scored at will when they had the ball. Tillman will have an adjustment for Narewski - will it be 2 poles at the face-off? High probability Maryland will not almost literally throw the ball out of Rutger's stadium. Incensed Terps will fight for every ground ball.

I think Coulter does have an extra year of eligibility. He had a very serious injury when he was a freshman. His speed on the one close out likely saved a goal. His performance last night, Zinn's athletic ability and Blondell (who looks like a rangy monster out there) does leave you scratching your head. Zinn should have had a goal - that was Dolan's best save of the night IMO.

1 day to enjoy - 3 days of work. Lately, most of us don't think highly of the staff's adjustments. Highly probable we will not get the Maryland team that played last night. There will be adjustments on their side you can count on that. Tillman likely slept with his tablet last night. Corely on Epstein? If so, Williams has to maybe double his output. And Marr - even though he played very hard last night - has to score more than 1. Darby's performance was truly forgettable - Jays likely can't survive another - as some of the things that led to the victory will change.

[Typical Lax Dad]

I thought Ryan Coulter was phenomenal. Absolutely eye-popping range for a SSDM, with his head always on a swivel. Was he late sliding on that one goal? Marginally, but he was amazing in his first third quarter run and won a possession for the Blue Jays with a race to the sideline. Seriously, why the heck has he not seen more playing time? I am hoping he has another year of eligibility (didn’t appear in a game in 2016). He should be on a constant rotation with Jones and Hubler.

Zinn can beat his man almost at will. Heard he’s been injured much of the season. Whatever his status, he can clearly take regular runs on either the first or second midfield lines. His speed is elite ... just keep giving him more reps and his shots will eventually fall.

Thought Blondell did a nice job today. I suppose he’s part of the new effort to keep legs fresh on D by having Coulter, Zinn, and Blondell rotate in more at SSDM and LSM. Sure seemed to work.

Blue Jays did an excellent job on 50-50 gbs today. How often can we say that?!?

Finally, beautiful team offense today. Really worked hard together. Smith with 2 goals and 2 assists. DeSimone with a goal and an assist. Zinn had an assist, and probably should have had another. Williams with yet another hat trick and an assist. Marr with 1 and 1, but thought some of his best play was on ground balls. Concannon & Baskin with a goal each. Two best goals by Foley (great game) and Kuhn.

Oh, and that kid Epstein had 4 goals, 2 assists, 3 gbs, and now has 53 points as a freshman (*yawn*). Will likely be B1G freshman of the week for the fourth time (*zzzzzzzzz*).

This win helps, but I still think Hopkins needs the AQ to make the NCAA tournament. Blue Jays proved today they can play with and beat some of the best.

No rest for the weary. Beat Maryland on Thursday!

DocBarrister

Passing and shooting are two of Zinn’s best qualities. Good to see him running by guys. He will be fine. A lot of lacrosse ahead of him. Good team win.

[DocBarrister]

Good analysis, 51%vegetable.

Blue Jays know what they must do. From the Baltimore Sun:

“We understand that we’re in a position where we just have to win out almost the rest of the season,” senior defenseman Patrick Foley said. “This game was a good step in the right direction. But next Thursday is even more important. We’re going to see a new Maryland team, and they’re going to see a new [Johns Hopkins] team. So the biggest point is that we take this win, and we learn from our mistakes.”

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/col ... story.html

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

I thought Ryan Coulter was phenomenal. Absolutely eye-popping range for a SSDM, with his head always on a swivel. Was he late sliding on that one goal? Marginally, but he was amazing in his first third quarter run and won a possession for the Blue Jays with a race to the sideline. Seriously, why the heck has he not seen more playing time? I am hoping he has another year of eligibility (didn’t appear in a game in 2016). He should be on a constant rotation with Jones and Hubler.

Zinn can beat his man almost at will. Heard he’s been injured much of the season. Whatever his status, he can clearly take regular runs on either the first or second midfield lines. His speed is elite ... just keep giving him more reps and his shots will eventually fall.

Thought Blondell did a nice job today. I suppose he’s part of the new effort to keep legs fresh on D by having Coulter, Zinn, and Blondell rotate in more at SSDM and LSM. Sure seemed to work.

Blue Jays did an excellent job on 50-50 gbs today. How often can we say that?!?

Finally, beautiful team offense today. Really worked hard together. Smith with 2 goals and 2 assists. DeSimone with a goal and an assist. Zinn had an assist, and probably should have had another. Williams with yet another hat trick and an assist. Marr with 1 and 1, but thought some of his best play was on ground balls. Concannon & Baskin with a goal each. Two best goals by Foley (great game) and Kuhn.

Oh, and that kid Epstein had 4 goals, 2 assists, 3 gbs, and now has 53 points as a freshman (*yawn*). Will likely be B1G freshman of the week for the fourth time (*zzzzzzzzz*).

This win helps, but I still think Hopkins needs the AQ to make the NCAA tournament. Blue Jays proved today they can play with and beat some of the best.

No rest for the weary. Beat Maryland on Thursday!

DocBarrister

Passing and shooting are two of Zinn’s best qualities. Good to see him running by guys. He will be fine. A lot of lacrosse ahead of him. Good team win.

Yes, very much agree, TLD.

DocBarrister

[houndace1]

Peep the updated bracketology projections for Hop

Why so much love for Rutgers? (slightly higher chance of conf championship than Hop...)


Marquette is now out of their tourney, so zero chance of AQ. (or did you just update Hopkins & Md?)

I don’t update the bracketology, I’m just a CPA Accounting candidate not a lax statistician lmaoooo. But great win last night, I think win Thursday and you have a solid chance of an at large. Obviously winning the big10 is possible I think if you repeat the same performance for Thursday and Saturday

[wgdsr]

congrats to the lynch mob.

is there a replay?

[Hawkeye]

So how about laxbytes gave Hopkins credit for a loss last night.

Rank Team Rating Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk Records

1 Penn State 99.90 6 1 49 1 12- 1- 0
2 Yale 97.99 18 5 73 6 11- 2- 0
3 Maryland 97.12 8 2 38 2 12- 2- 0
4 Loyola 97.10 19 8 34 9 11- 3- 0
5 Penn 97.06 9 6 48 4 9- 3- 0
6 Duke 96.89 4 3 19 3 11- 4- 0
7 Syracuse 96.59 7 10 62 7 9- 4- 0
8 Denver 96.12 14 13 16 12 9- 4- 0
9 Notre Dame 95.90 2 7 46 5 8- 5- 0
10 Cornell 95.89 15 11 13 13 10- 4- 0
11 Virginia 95.74 16 4 70 8 12- 3- 0
12 UMass 95.19 35 18 64 19 10- 4- 0
13 Towson 95.10 12 9 63 10 9- 4- 0
14 Ohio State 94.97 5 12 47 11 8- 4- 0
15 North Carolina 94.96 11 16 45 16 8- 7- 0
16 Princeton 94.30 24 23 50 18 7- 7- 0
17 Georgetown 94.22 33 17 22 20 11- 4- 0
18 Villanova 93.83 10 15 69 15 8- 6- 0
19 Boston U. 93.77 34 25 6 23 10- 5- 0
20 Rutgers 93.72 13 22 55 17 7- 7- 0
21 Army 93.61 37 20 3 22 10- 4- 0
22 Air Force 93.58 46 21 1 28 10- 4- 0
23 High Point 93.44 50 19 26 30 12- 2- 0
24 Johns Hopkins 93.43 1 14 31 14 6- 7- 0

[HopFan16]

If you go to the Interactive section of LaxBytes I think it has the correct, update info. We're #11 in RPI after beating Maryland. If we beat them again it has us moving all the way up to #7, although depending on what else happens around the country next weekend, that might not stick. Bottom line: We're already back in the conversation without even needing to beat Maryland a second time. But if we do, a bid looks highly likely. I think our win last night made the Big East a one-bid league. I don't see the path for Villanova or Denver if they lose that conference. Our biggest competition right now remains Ohio State and Towson (should they lose the CAA) as they have comparable RPIs and head-to-head victories over us. Our win probably knocked UNC out as well. Sorry PineSt, maybe next year, though probably not if we're being honest. Princeton and Rutgers are #22 and #23 in RPI respectively. It'd help if one of those ends up in the top 20.

[Hawkeye]

We're #11 in RPI after beating Maryland. If we beat them again it has us moving all the way up to #7, although depending on what else happens around the country next weekend, that might not stick.

Bottom line: We're already back in the conversation without even needing to beat Maryland a second time. But if we do, a bid looks highly likely. I think our win last night made the Big East a one-bid league.

I don't see the path for Villanova or Denver if they lose that conference. Our biggest competition right now remains Ohio State and Towson (should they lose the CAA) as they have comparable RPIs and head-to-head victories over us.

Thanks for the tip, I'll check that. I needed RPI numbers to start working on my bracketology post. I love laxreference, but I think his model is massively underselling Cornell. I have to get my post out there to counter that. The Big East teams are probably toast in this discussion, Villanova especially.... I think Ohio State would be too if it weren't for the head-to-head over Hopkins dragging them back into it.

I agree with you that it's likely down to Hop/tOSU/Towson for the last at-large as things stand (assuming no upsets for AQs, other than the CAA). I think Hopkins is still on the wrong side of the bubble, but it's a heck of a lot closer than it was 24 hours ago.

LET'S DO IT AGAIN.

[Wheels]

Give Petro, his staff, and players a ton of credit for last night. Nareweski changed the whole game, but Petro's game plan was perfectly executed.

On offense, Hop's biggest issue all year with its motion offense was drawing slides. Hop used Penn State's offensive scheme (that OSU and RU also used but not to the success JHU had last night). Start a wing, GLE dodge with a midfielder. Maryland's slide package moves the close defenseman covering X to the front of the goal. Press the goal from the wing, draw the slide from the pole, move the ball to X, and hang up the defense. Either Maryland tries to flush the X attackman out with the goalie and close defender (2 goals for Hop off of this last night), or Maryland tries to wait it out. So behind the hang up defensemen, Hopkins did what PSU and RU did...set up the old picket fence 5 yards above the goal. Send picks to free cutters. I think Hop had 3 goals doing this.

Then Hop succeeded in making Cole Williams an assist guy. Hop used the 2-man, big-little game behind GLE to get Williams (then Forry Smith) switched onto a Terp shorty. Even when Williams (then Smith) didn't beat the shorty on the dodge, the match-up alone created anxiety for the Terps, who would send double teams to Willams and Smith when they weren't even in a threatening scoring position. The slide and recovery allowed Williams, especially, to look over the defense and find the skip pass. I think Hopkins scored 2 or 3 goals off of this look.

Mentioned this earlier in the thread that the way to beat Maryland was to get possession at the face-off and the turn Maryland's offense into a series of isolation dodges. The Terps had only 4 assists last night, their lowest total of the season. Wisnauskas had 3 assists, but DeMaio and Bernhardt had none. Dubick got nothing in the crease even when Hopkins double-poled Maryland's first midfield and left Dubick in the crease with a shorty.

Just a dominant win. I haven't seen a team do that to the Terps in a long, long time. Worst Terps' loss since 2013. The Terps have followed their previous losses with 4 game win steaks. I'm sure they're looking forward to Thursday on the banks...

[jhu06]

that crab trophy is fantastic. take note other schools. it's big, original, fits its environment, you see it and think only one thing-the state of maryland. Whomever came up with that deserves a few natty bohs. excellent. I'd rank it just behind the bunyan axe and usc-notre dame jeweled shillelagh.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/267 ... ies#slide7

so much chirping from haters about how dead the Hopkins lacrosse brand is. Notre Dame Football, Dallas Cowboys, the British Royal Family, the kennedys, the Beatles, los angeles lakers, they are all Hopkins lacrosse, doesn't matter whether they're up down out or sideways people watch, read and listen because it's a brand they respect, a tradition they understand, characters they follow and drama they can't turn away from. How many other 6-6 lacrosse programs draw 12k, which given how bad maryland football has been might be the largest crowd that stadium has had all year.

@D1scourse 16h16 hours ago
More
Tonight's attendance: 12,405. It's the largest crowd of the season for any D-I game, surpassing the 10,216 for Army-Navy two Saturdays ago.

"The Blue Jays are 9-1 in their last 10 games at Maryland Stadium • The visiting team has won seven of the last nine regular season games in the series."-wow

this is my reaction to last night. very dissapointing year so far, but it's a whole new season now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSr-VWc_7WQ

After the ohio state loss I stopped checking bracketology. Gave it a cursory look last night and hard to see us missing the tournament with a win vs maryland on thursday. Doubt we make it without one.

[Hawkeye]

that crab trophy is fantastic. take note other schools. it's big, original, fits its environment, you see it and think only one thing-the state of maryland. Whomever came up with that deserves a few natty bohs. excellent. I'd rank it just behind the bunyan axe and usc-notre dame jeweled shillelagh.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/267 ... ies#slide7

After the ohio state loss I stopped checking bracketology. Gave it a cursory look last night and hard to see us missing the tournament with a win vs maryland on thursday. Doubt we make it without one.

Before I clicked the link, I was already prepared to say that you forgot about FLOYD. I'm very happy to see that it was #1.

We are in agreement. In with another win... very nervous moments without one. I can't see Hop in at 7-7 without everything falling absolutely perfectly.

[houndace1]

So i have a question, if someone could possibly fill me in and answer:

For NCAA tournament sakes in getting in, why would you want a team that you lost to, to win out/win their conference tournament? I thought the general consensus was that you root for the teams you beat to keep winning so that your victory looks better and better?

[baltlaxdad1966]

Well, well, well...
Backs are against the wall and the Jays pull it on in very convincing fashion against a top ranked opponent. Not sure if this group will be able to replicate that performance the next go around, but the confidence that has to be oozing through the locker room down at Homewood has got to be high. Petro always seems to pull a rabbit out of his hat anytime his job seems like its in jeopardy.

[Hawkeye]

why would you want a team that you lost to, to win out/win their conference tournament?

1) If the teams that your team lost to keep winning, it makes the loss look better (less bad?). Ideally, wouldn't all of your teams' losses come to undefeated teams? That would be very impressive, indeed. This hypothetical team with losses only to undefeated teams would have no bad losses.
2) In this particular case (JHU), Hopkins does not need Loyola or Towson to eat up one (or two...) of the eight available at-large spots.
3) Additionally, if Hopkins is being compared for one of the last at-large spots to Loyola (unlikely) or Towson (possible), Hopkins lost on the field to both of these teams. The selection committee would likely give heavy weight to the on-the-field result in this case... and it probably wouldn't be a favorable outcome for Hopkins.

This is why most (informed) Hopkins fans want Loyola and Towson (and etc) to keep on winning.

[houndace1]

why would you want a team that you lost to, to win out/win their conference tournament?

1) If the teams that your team lost to keep winning, it makes the loss look better (less bad?). Ideally, wouldn't all of your teams' losses come to undefeated teams? That would be very impressive, indeed. This hypothetical team with losses only to undefeated teams would have no bad losses.
2) In this particular case (JHU), Hopkins does not need Loyola and Towson to eat up one (or two...) of the eight available at-large spots.
3) Additionally, if Hopkins is being compared for one of the last at-large spots to Loyola (unlikely) or Towson (possible), Hopkins lost the head-to-head to both of these teams. The selection committee would likely give heavy weight to the on-the-field result in this case.

This is why most (informed) Hopkins fans want Loyola and Towson (and etc) to keep on winning.

ahhh i see because if we and Towson win our respective leads, it knocks out other possible at larges within the PL and CAA conferences, which helps out JHU's case for an at large

[HopFan16]

Loyola not winning the Patriot League would be a nightmare for all bubble teams, us included. That's one at-large spot instantly gone. So we unfortunately have to be big Greyhound fans next weekend.

Same goes for Towson. Unlike Loyola, Towson is not a sure-thing for an at-large spot should they lose their conference tournament but as things stand right now they're probably ahead of us based on their head-to-head victory. Now, I don't know what the numbers will look like next week. Say they lose to Delaware, they might fall pretty far. And even if we lose to Maryland, we're not going to fall much, if at all. So we've got to root for Towson to either a) lose immediately and hope for the best or b) win the whole conference, ensuring there's no potential bid stealing. Worst-case I think is we lose on Thursday, Towson beats Delaware but then loses in the CAA finals to UMass. Towson would probably get the final at-large spot over us in that scenario.

I do think we've now jumped ahead of Ohio State. So it's Loyola and Towson that need close watching. That's for us to worry about though—I assume the Jays will be singularly focused on beating the Terps a second time to all but guarantee they extend their season a few more games.