At-Large Predictions based on RPI, SOS and Quality Wins

[laf]

http://www.laxmath.com/preview.htm

[GaitsRightHand]

With Florida Southern beating Tampa in the Semi's- this may shake up D2.. Does Tampa still make the South's top 6?

By my count..
North:
#1 Le Moyne
#5 Adelphi
#9 Mercy
#10 Bentley
#11 Pace
#14 Saint A's


South:
#2 Wingate
#3 Uindy
#4 Lenoir Rhyne
#6 Rollins
#8? Mercyhurst (? = Probably higher than #7 Tampa now)
???

Tampa's #7 on this weeks poll- but after lastnights loss I think it'll shake things up. Tampa's 3 quality wins are: #4 LR, #12 Seton Hill and #15 Mesa. Losses to #19 Frostburg, #6 Rollins, and #16 FSC (prob moving up). Does Tampa still make the tournament?

Do you think Tampa still makes it?

[Pitt12]

With Florida Southern beating Tampa in the Semi's- this may shake up D2.. Does Tampa still make the South's top 6?

By my count..
North:
#1 Le Moyne
#5 Adelphi
#9 Mercy
#10 Bentley
#11 Pace
#14 Saint A's


South:
#2 Wingate
#3 Uindy
#4 Lenoir Rhyne
#6 Rollins
#8? Mercyhurst (? = Probably higher than #7 Tampa now)
???

Tampa's #7 on this weeks poll- but after lastnights loss I think it'll shake things up. Tampa's 3 quality wins are: #4 LR, #12 Seton Hill and #15 Mesa. Losses to #19 Frostburg, #6 Rollins, and #16 FSC (prob moving up). Does Tampa still make the tournament?

Do you think Tampa still makes it?

Mercyhurst is in the North. I still think Tampa gets in although not a guarantee depending on conference tournaments. Limestone is on the outside looking in. They need to beat Wingate to have a shot to pass Colorado Mesa.

[GaitsRightHand]

Mercyhurst is in the North. I still think Tampa gets in although not a guarantee depending on conference tournaments. Limestone is on the outside looking in. They need to beat Wingate to have a shot to pass Colorado Mesa.

Oops, I was getting flashbacks from when Mercyhurst won the Natty in '11 against Adelphi and and represented the south. So, Tampa is still in.

North:
#1 Le Moyne
#5 Adelphi
#8 Mercyhurst
#9 Mercy
#10 Bentley
#11 Pace

South:
#2 Wingate
#3 Uindy
#4 Lenoir Rhyne
#6 Rollins
#7 Tampa
Limestone/Mesa/??

[RedFromMI]

I ran my KRACH numbers for games through yesterday, sorted into the two regions:

North Region

Code: Select all

Rank	Team			KRACH	RRWP	W	L	Region	SOS	SOS Rank
 1	Le Moyne		67669.9	0.990	14	0	N	3002	1
 5	Adelphi			 482.4	0.909	14	2	N	992	5
 7	Mercyhurst		 3376.6	0.877	11	2	N	768	7
 8	Mercy			 2591.2	0.856	12	3	N	748	8
 9	Saint Anselm		 2387.3	0.850	 8	3	N	1007	4
10	Pace			 2024.7	0.836	11	3	N	634	12
----------
11	Bentley			 1985.8	0.834	 9	4	N	957	6
18	Seton Hill		  767.7	0.739	10	4	N	335	18
20	S. New Hampshire	  414.1	0.666	 6	5	N	352	17
22	Roberts Wesleyan	  331.4	0.638	 9	3	N	125	39
24	Frostburg State		  314.2	0.631	11	4	N	125	38
 

South Region

Code: Select all

Rank	Team			KRACH	RRWP	W	L	Region	SOS	SOS Rank
 2	Wingate			12438.2	0.943	12	1	S	1622	2
 3	Rollins			 6012.4	0.915	14	1	S	677	11
 4	Indianapolis		 5899.8	0.914	10	2	S	1468	3
 6	Lenoir-Rhyne		 3802.8	0.885	13	2	S	738	9
12	Limestone		 1862.3	0.828	12	4	S	685	10
13	Tampa			 1784.8	0.824	13	3	S	477	14
----------
14	Colorado Mesa		 1354.1	0.798	11	2	S	308	19
15	Newberry		 1244.8	0.790	11	4	S	497	13
16	Florida Southern	 1048.8	0.773	12	4	S	386	16
17	Anderson (SC)		  815.9	0.746	12	6	S	429	15
19	Belmont Abbey		  460.9	0.679	10	4	S	201	23
21	Lander			  365.2	0.650	11	4	S	146	31
 

At this point I think Mesa may not be in as good shape as they were - the strength of schedule of the teams above them may be enough to exclude them, although a win by Limestone over Wingate ought to be enough at this point to get them in assuming they do not lose to BA. FSC can possibly get in with a win over Rollins in the SSC championship game.

[GaitsRightHand]

I ran my KRACH numbers for games through yesterday, sorted into the two regions:

North Region

Code: Select all

Rank	Team KRACH	RRWP	W	L	Region	SOS	SOS Rank
 1	Le Moyne 67669.9	0.990	14	0	N	3002	1
 5	Adelphi 482.4	0.909	14	2	N	992	5
 7	Mercyhurst 3376.6	0.877	11	2	N	768	7
 8	Mercy 2591.2	0.856	12	3	N	748	8
 9	Saint Anselm 2387.3	0.850 8	3	N	1007	4
10	Pace 2024.7	0.836	11	3	N	634	12
----------
11	Bentley 1985.8	0.834 9	4	N	957	6
18	Seton Hill 767.7	0.739	10	4	N	335	18
20	S. New Hampshire 414.1	0.666 6	5	N	352	17
22	Roberts Wesleyan 331.4	0.638 9	3	N	125	39
24	Frostburg State 314.2	0.631	11	4	N	125	38
 

South Region

Code: Select all

Rank	Team KRACH	RRWP	W	L	Region	SOS	SOS Rank
 2	Wingate 12438.2	0.943	12	1	S	1622	2
 3	Rollins 6012.4	0.915	14	1	S	677	11
 4	Indianapolis 5899.8	0.914	10	2	S	1468	3
 6	Lenoir-Rhyne 3802.8	0.885	13	2	S	738	9
12	Limestone 1862.3	0.828	12	4	S	685	10
13	Tampa 1784.8	0.824	13	3	S	477	14
----------
14	Colorado Mesa 1354.1	0.798	11	2	S	308	19
15	Newberry 1244.8	0.790	11	4	S	497	13
16	Florida Southern 1048.8	0.773	12	4	S	386	16
17	Anderson (SC) 815.9	0.746	12	6	S	429	15
19	Belmont Abbey 460.9	0.679	10	4	S	201	23
21	Lander 365.2	0.650	11	4	S	146	31
 

At this point I think Mesa may not be in as good shape as they were - the strength of schedule of the teams above them may be enough to exclude them, although a win by Limestone over Wingate ought to be enough at this point to get them in assuming they do not lose to BA. FSC can possibly get in with a win over Rollins in the SSC championship game.

Exactly what I was hoping to see... Thanks for sharing!

Would a Newberry win over LR put them in the conversation? Hearing LR's top pole Powell and attack/mid Venazio are both out

[D2fan]

I think the top 4 in each region according to the last NCAA regional rankings have clinched and are just jockeying for position.

NORTH
Le Moyne
Adelphi
Mercyhurst
Mercy

The winner of the Pace/St. Anslem game this weekend will probably decide the 5th spot. Then it comes down to see if Bentley can beat Adelphi again
or Seton Hill beats Hurst for a 2nd time.


SOUTH
Rollins
Tampa
Wingate
UIndy

LR will probably lock in if they beat Newberry. Then the Colorado Mesa/Limestone debate will be determined by the Wingate/Limestone game Saturday.

Now if Mesa, Stone, and Newberry lose, I am wondering if that opens the door for Fla. Southern if FSU knocks off Rollins.

[Pitt12]

I think the top 4 in each region according to the last NCAA regional rankings have clinched and are just jockeying for position.

NORTH
Le Moyne
Adelphi
Mercyhurst
Mercy

The winner of the Pace/St. Anslem game this weekend will probably decide the 5th spot. Then it comes down to see if Bentley can beat Adelphi again
or Seton Hill beats Hurst for a 2nd time.


SOUTH
Rollins
Tampa
Wingate
UIndy

LR will probably lock in if they beat Newberry. Then the Colorado Mesa/Limestone debate will be determined by the Wingate/Limestone game Saturday.

Now if Mesa, Stone, and Newberry lose, I am wondering if that opens the door for Fla. Southern if FSU knocks off Rollins.

Limestone takes care of Wingate 22-15 this should get them in as long as they don't lose to BA.

[RedFromMI]

Stone played well enough that they certainly can win out the regular season. The offensive player of the year for the SAC was held to no goals, 2A, 1 shot, 2 GB, and had 3 TOs while exclusively guarded by a freshman (#22 Jaiden Terry).

Wingate had trouble figuring out how to guard Stone with two players having 5 goals apiece and 3 or 4 additional hat tricks.