2019 Bracketology Thread

[laxreference]

I have updated the Bracketology page so that you can see how a team's projections change depending on a win or loss in their upcoming schedule.

Here is the example panel for Cornell, as an example.

cornellExample.png (29.89 KiB) Viewed 4338 times

[Hawkeye]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field with 2 weeks left... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/pcHeomD

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 3 (Pennsylvania, Yale, Cornell)

There's been very little movement from last week on the at-large front, but quite few AQs changed hands: AEC, CAA, MAAC, and NEC.

In addition to the five at-large teams that I have as locks, Penn State, Pennsylvania, and Loyola* are also assured of being invited to the dance, no matter how their conference tournaments play out.
* unless Loyola somehow inexplicably loses to Lafayette next week, in which case, forget what I just said.

Update on on the teams on the outside looking in, both UNC and Hopkins lost last week and have a ton of work to do now, with basically no margin for error left. I think both need at least two wins to have a chance, and that feels pretty unlikely. None of the other teams on the wrong side of the bubble look to have enough opportunities left to put together an at-large worthy resume. I think the bubble for at-large is solidifying around the following teams:

Cornell
Denver
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Towson
Villanova (if they lose the AQ spot they currently hold)

As things stand, there would be three at-large bids available for the teams in that group that do not earn an AQ. Out of this group, the Big East teams seem to be in the most trouble as far as at-large bids go.

And of course the bubble can always shrink if there's an upset for an AQ. The following conferences seem capable of producing an AQ that would shrink the bubble by a spot. I'm not entirely convinced that the Big East or CAA can secure two bids, so I'm not including them here.

Big Ten - Rutgers, maybe Hopkins
Ivy League - Brown/Princeton (one or both will make the ILT)
Patriot League - anyone but Loyola

[Hawkeye]

I have updated the Bracketology page

I have a request from the SoCon thread. How would High Point's resume for an at-large look had they beaten St. John's? (If you have the capabilities to do hypotheticals like this. )

I said in that thread that I thought this was the loss that really killed their chances for an at-large bid.

[laxreference]

The Bracketology page has been updated to reflect the Cuse/UNC result.

Headline is that Cuse may have cost themselves a shot at a home game. With the loss, they ended up seeded in just 39.4% of the sims

[Big Dog]

I think a bigger headline is that UNC just burst someone's bubble hopes.

[TheBigIguana]

I think a bigger headline is that UNC just burst someone's bubble hopes.

I don't think they have yet but beating Virginia and they skip straight over the bubble and are easily in. Lose and I think they're the wrong side of it.

[DALaxDad]

Wait, isn't this how UNC won in 2016?

[calourie]

Can't win it if you aren't in it, and without a win against Virginia tomorrow, UNC won't be in it according to Laxbytes and their 99% NCAA tourney prediction record.

[laxreference]

The projection model did not look kindly on Ohio State's result against Michigan. Buckeyes drop from an 83.5% chance of getting into the field all the way down to a 1.1% chance. They would need a lot of help to get in at this point.

Cornell, ND, Towson, Denver, Villanova all got a bump as a result.

Here is the updated list of projections .

[ICGrad]

The projection model did not look kindly on Ohio State's result against Michigan. Buckeyes drop from an 83.5% chance of getting into the field all the way down to a 1.1% chance. They would need a lot of help to get in at this point.

Cornell, ND, Towson, Denver, Villanova all got a bump as a result.

Here is the updated list of projections .

How come when I click that link, it shows OSU at 26.1%, not 1.1%?

[laxreference]

How come when I click that link, it shows OSU at 26.1%, not 1.1%?

Oops, forgot to update my post here. Yeah, the 1.1% was inaccurate. I re-ran it and their odds jumped up into that 25-35% range. Took a few hits today with the Cornell victory though. UNC and Villanova helped them out though.

[laxreference]

Heading into the final game of the day, here is where we stand with respect to projected # of bids by league :

Atlantic Coast Conference: 3.95
Ivy League: 2.72
Big Ten: 2.43
Colonial Athletic Association: 1.57
Patriot League: 1.33

One bid leagues:
NEC
Big East
Southern
America East
MAAC

[cu21]

Certainly this is just a computer model and nothing is final in till next weeks games, and I definitely a slight bias, but if a 7-7 JHU team gets in over Cornell I would be shocked and pretty disappointed in the selection committee given the season that JHU has turned in.

[laxreference]

Certainly this is just a computer model and nothing is final in till next weeks games, and I definitely a slight bias, but if a 7-7 JHU team gets in over Cornell I would be shocked and pretty disappointed in the selection committee given the season that JHU has turned in.

So this is how Cornell stacks up against JHU as well as 2 other bubble teams

BubbleComp_Johns_Hopkins_Cornell_Towson_Ohio_State_20190428.png (16.4 KiB) Viewed 3070 times

Hopkins advantage is all about RPI, which is enamored with their #2 SOS. They certainly had a difficult schedule but a) so did these other teams and 2) TEAMS HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONTROL OVER HOW HARD THEIR SCHEDULE ENDS UP BEING!!!!!!!!

If you use a metric like SOR that tries to account for the vagaries of SOS, Hopkins would easily be the odd man out in this quartet. But the committee prioritizes RPI, so there you go.

[Sllaxdad]

Ohio St should not be on the bubble. Enough with the football schools controlling these NCAA committees. They did not qualify for B10 tournament. Only played 12 games (could play another 3 games). Qualifying for your own league tournament should be the first disqualifying factor . End of discussion.

[HopFan16]

Certainly this is just a computer model and nothing is final in till next weeks games, and I definitely a slight bias, but if a 7-7 JHU team gets in over Cornell I would be shocked and pretty disappointed in the selection committee given the season that JHU has turned in.

So this is how Cornell stacks up against JHU as well as 2 other bubble teams

BubbleComp_Johns_Hopkins_Cornell_Towson_Ohio_State_20190428.png

Hopkins advantage is all about RPI, which is enamored with their #2 SOS. They certainly had a difficult schedule but a) so did these other teams and 2) TEAMS HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONTROL OVER HOW HARD THEIR SCHEDULE ENDS UP BEING!!!!!!!!

If you use a metric like SOR that tries to account for the vagaries of SOS, Hopkins would easily be the odd man out in this quartet. But the committee prioritizes RPI, so there you go.

I don't get why you use a bunch of criteria that the committee doesn't use. The only things there that they pay attention to are RPI and SOS. They are pretty clear what metrics they make their decisions by, and ELO and efficiency are not among them:

Strength of schedule index.
• Results of the RPI.
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
• Head-to-head competition:
- Results versus common opponents.
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI).
- Locations of contests.
• Input from the regional advisory committee (comprised of lacrosse coashes from all AQ conferences).

What are the average RPI wins and losses of the teams above?

[NElaxtalent]

Ohio St should not be on the bubble. Enough with the football schools controlling these NCAA committees. They did not qualify for B10 tournament. Only played 12 games (could play another 3 games). Qualifying for your own league tournament should be the first disqualifying factor . End of discussion.

I'd actually go a step further... If you are sub-.500 in your conference, you should be ineligible for an NCAA bid. That would do 2 things:

1) magnify the importance of all league games (regular season & tourney). Every ACC & B1G game would be must-see TV all season long.
2) even more rapidly grow the game beyond the ACC/B1G. Yes, it might weaken the NCAA field a tad for a (few years) by spreading out an extra 1-2 at-large bids but.... see #1

[laxreference]

What are the average RPI wins and losses of the teams above?

I don't have the averages tabulated off-hand, but the RPI table that I publish has the records for all the RPI tiers that the committee specified.

[Hawkeye]

I'd actually go a step further... If you are sub-.500 in your conference, you should be ineligible for an NCAA bid. That would do 2 things:

1) magnify the importance of all league games (regular season & tourney). Every ACC & B1G game would be must-see TV all season long.
2) even more rapidly grow the game beyond the ACC/B1G. Yes, it might weaken the NCAA field a tad for a (few years) by spreading out an extra 1-2 at-large bids but.... see #1

And this gives strong programs an incentive to join weak conferences. Hopkins to the MAAC or NEC to go 8-0 in conference every season? Next.

[10stone5]

Certainly this is just a computer model and nothing is final in till next weeks games, and I definitely a slight bias, but if a 7-7 JHU team gets in over Cornell I would be shocked and pretty disappointed in the selection committee given the season that JHU has turned in.

So this is how Cornell stacks up against JHU as well as 2 other bubble teams

BubbleComp_Johns_Hopkins_Cornell_Towson_Ohio_State_20190428.png

Hopkins advantage is all about RPI, which is enamored with their #2 SOS. They certainly had a difficult schedule but a) so did these other teams and 2) TEAMS HAVE ONLY MODERATE CONTROL OVER HOW HARD THEIR SCHEDULE ENDS UP BEING!!!!!!!!

If you use a metric like SOR that tries to account for the vagaries of SOS, Hopkins would easily be the odd man out in this quartet. But the committee prioritizes RPI, so there you go.

Also wins over top 20s.