Big Ten 2023
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Re: Big Ten 2023
Maybe PM was waiting for a close game before he would ask the refs.
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
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Re: Big Ten 2023
Maybe PM was waiting for a game where he didn't blow a 5-0 lead and have a shot clock violation on the final possession of regulation
Re: Big Ten 2023
Anyone want to talk about what an even match-up looks like?
Maryland: 30th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 1st adjusted faceoff percent, 14th adjusted save percent
Rutgers: 28th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 17th adjusted faceoff percent, 23rd adjusted save percent
Add in that Rutgers plays better at home, and they should be considered the favorite this weekend.
Maryland: 30th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 1st adjusted faceoff percent, 14th adjusted save percent
Rutgers: 28th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 17th adjusted faceoff percent, 23rd adjusted save percent
Add in that Rutgers plays better at home, and they should be considered the favorite this weekend.
Re: Big Ten 2023
It's a monkey the program needs to get off of it's back.Wheels wrote: ↑Mon Apr 10, 2023 6:56 am Anyone want to talk about what an even match-up looks like?
Maryland: 30th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 1st adjusted faceoff percent, 14th adjusted save percent
Rutgers: 28th adjusted offense eff, 9th adjusted defense eff, 17th adjusted faceoff percent, 23rd adjusted save percent
Add in that Rutgers plays better at home, and they should be considered the favorite this weekend.
How about the Big Ten? What an exciting conference. It feels like anyone can win it and any one can come in last.
The tournament is going to be incredible.
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Re: Big Ten 2023
Predictions for Rutgers @ Penn State, Ohio State @ Michigan, and Hopkins @ Maryland?
Re: Big Ten 2023
Given everything Rutgers lost, it's not too surprising they took a step back this season. Given everything OSU brought back, especially on defense, it is surprising how bad they've been.
Re: Big Ten 2023
Myers leaving Wahlund in there to get lit up. Maybe he needs to go yell at someone about gloves or something.
Re: Big Ten 2023
Legit question, who has Rutgers beaten this year? Not a hater. Just asking. They’ve beaten 2 teams with winning records this year. Seriously, Is this a team that can get an at large?
Re: Big Ten 2023
They weren’t exactly kicking it,
but yeah, that bad decision by Meyers had the reverse effect,
they’ve played deflated since then.
but yeah, that bad decision by Meyers had the reverse effect,
they’ve played deflated since then.
Last edited by 10stone5 on Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Big Ten 2023
Re: Big Ten 2023
So after tonight
Penn State 1 or 2.
Maryland 1 or 3
Hopkins 2 or 3
Michigan 4
Ohio State 5
Rutgers 6
am I wrong?
Penn State 1 or 2.
Maryland 1 or 3
Hopkins 2 or 3
Michigan 4
Ohio State 5
Rutgers 6
am I wrong?
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Re: Big Ten 2023
Not saying they've got an amazing set of wins, but this time of year is all about comparison. Using the current RPI ranking of their opponents, Rutgers's wins collectively rank better than the wins of all these teams:
Denver
Villanova
UNC
Penn
Syracuse
They've got the 10th best set of wins, but the issue for them is that their set of losses rank 19th.
Data Engineer/Lacrosse Fan --- Twitter: @laxreference --- Informed fans get Expected Goals, the new daily newsletter from LacrosseReference
Re: Big Ten 2023
is that by average rpi? the committee often stresses which top wins (and losses), not average. for that, rutgers doesn't come out great.laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 6:46 amNot saying they've got an amazing set of wins, but this time of year is all about comparison. Using the current RPI ranking of their opponents, Rutgers's wins collectively rank better than the wins of all these teams:
Denver
Villanova
UNC
Penn
Syracuse
They've got the 10th best set of wins, but the issue for them is that their set of losses rank 19th.
then again, semi-new committee in '23, and we broke the straight rpi streak last year.
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Re: Big Ten 2023
No, it's not average RPI. I look at every team's best win and assign points based on the opponent's RPI. Then every team's second best weight (although that receives less weight), and so on down to their least impressive wins, which barely add anything to their total.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 10:52 amis that by average rpi? the committee often stresses which top wins (and losses), not average. for that, rutgers doesn't come out great.laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 6:46 am
Not saying they've got an amazing set of wins, but this time of year is all about comparison. Using the current RPI ranking of their opponents, Rutgers's wins collectively rank better than the wins of all these teams:
Denver
Villanova
UNC
Penn
Syracuse
They've got the 10th best set of wins, but the issue for them is that their set of losses rank 19th.
then again, semi-new committee in '23, and we broke the straight rpi streak last year.
So Denver's best win (Villanova) earns them 64 Strength-of-Record (SOR) points. Nova's best win (PSU) earns them 70 points. Rutgers best win (Princeton) earns them 61 points. So their best win doesn't match up against those teams, but when you look at the entirety of their list of wins, it's the best of this comparison group. This approach puts the most weight on your best victory, but doesn't discount the quality of the others.
( I also have the settings such that a team's wins are more important to their resume than their losses (personal preference on that one. )
Data Engineer/Lacrosse Fan --- Twitter: @laxreference --- Informed fans get Expected Goals, the new daily newsletter from LacrosseReference
Re: Big Ten 2023
ok. are you projecting an outcome with your formula here, or just your preferred ranking?laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 11:09 amNo, it's not average RPI. I look at every team's best win and assign points based on the opponent's RPI. Then every team's second best weight (although that receives less weight), and so on down to their least impressive wins, which barely add anything to their total.wgdsr wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 10:52 amis that by average rpi? the committee often stresses which top wins (and losses), not average. for that, rutgers doesn't come out great.laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 6:46 am
Not saying they've got an amazing set of wins, but this time of year is all about comparison. Using the current RPI ranking of their opponents, Rutgers's wins collectively rank better than the wins of all these teams:
Denver
Villanova
UNC
Penn
Syracuse
They've got the 10th best set of wins, but the issue for them is that their set of losses rank 19th.
then again, semi-new committee in '23, and we broke the straight rpi streak last year.
So Denver's best win (Villanova) earns them 64 Strength-of-Record (SOR) points. Nova's best win (PSU) earns them 70 points. Rutgers best win (Princeton) earns them 61 points. So their best win doesn't match up against those teams, but when you look at the entirety of their list of wins, it's the best of this comparison group. This approach puts the most weight on your best victory, but doesn't discount the quality of the others.
( I also have the settings such that a team's wins are more important to their resume than their losses (personal preference on that one. )
RutgersExample.PNG
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Re: Big Ten 2023
If you are asking whether I'm projecting what the committee would do with these teams, not really. But this is basically the idea of tiers taken to the logical extension of using tier sizes of one team each, so it's not implausible that they could look at it this way.
I am also using a setting that weights victories more than losses, and there's no guarantee that they would use the same approach. And in fact, if you were to emphasize losses but the same amount that I had wins emphasized, these three teams would see their SOR flipped, with Rutgers coming in last.
You can play around with whatever setting you want here.
Data Engineer/Lacrosse Fan --- Twitter: @laxreference --- Informed fans get Expected Goals, the new daily newsletter from LacrosseReference
Re: Big Ten 2023
gotcha and thanks. question... why does your rpi have vermont dropping from ~15 to 23 during the week? laxnumbers still has them at 15.laxreference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 22, 2023 11:29 amIf you are asking whether I'm projecting what the committee would do with these teams, not really. But this is basically the idea of tiers taken to the logical extension of using tier sizes of one team each, so it's not implausible that they could look at it this way.
I am also using a setting that weights victories more than losses, and there's no guarantee that they would use the same approach. And in fact, if you were to emphasize losses but the same amount that I had wins emphasized, these three teams would see their SOR flipped, with Rutgers coming in last.
You can play around with whatever setting you want here.
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Re: Big Ten 2023
Fixed. Thanks for pointing that out. Their game against BU was updated on the NCAA site a bit weird; didn't realize that would remove their result against the Terriers from their RPI calc.
Data Engineer/Lacrosse Fan --- Twitter: @laxreference --- Informed fans get Expected Goals, the new daily newsletter from LacrosseReference