NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread

[10stone5]

They should have applied the Jeff Teat bonus that year.

Instead we got yet another Hopkins 1st round hammering.

[wgdsr]

As someone who's followed this for a LONG time, my opinion is that, ever since the 2009 criteria change, Cornell has been treated fairly by the committee.

As indeed have all other schools.

Which is not to say that the committee's decisions are consistent from year to year: they are definitely not.

If you want consistency, the only way to get it is to do what hockey does: use a definite mathematical formula with no discretion for the committee.

But prior to 2009, there were many debacles, of which 2007 was the worst. Happily, that one led directly to the 2009 criteria change.

^^^^
agree with the exception of 2022.
once they put themselves @ tosu vs nd, which i can't endorse AT ALL on that decision.... even though i disagreed as a fan on other years, inclusive of my hate for straight rpi as even a valid criteria, much less a primary... they were defensible.

unless and until we go to a straight numerical, it's fodder.

not commenting on pre-2009.... pre- my understanding and also maybe around the time they started making a structure around things.... and aq's.

[CU77]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

[DocBarrister]

2007 was a seeding issue, but the same set of bad criteria also led to bad selections in other years; 1996 was particularly egregious:

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/05/12/spor ... -snub.html

Ahh the fatty bucknell reference used like Hop fans citing titles from 1914 against the YWCA.

But yeah Albany and Cornell were boned on seeding in 2007/

Hey! The YWCA had a very good team that year. Even had a big win against Joe’s Deli.

DocBarrister

[jrn19]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

Hopkins resume is better than Rutgers, Cornell, and Georgetown. Rutgers and Georgetown resumes aren’t even in the same universe to Hopkins. Plus they lost to them H2H.

[wgdsr]

2007 was a seeding issue, but the same set of bad criteria also led to bad selections in other years; 1996 was particularly egregious:

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/05/12/spor ... -snub.html

Ahh the fatty bucknell reference used like Hop fans citing titles from 1914 against the YWCA.

But yeah Albany and Cornell were boned on seeding in 2007/

Hey! The YWCA had a very good team that year. Even had a big win against Joe’s Deli.

DocBarrister

are u referencing hop's 44? champs?

[Farfromgeneva]

2007 was a seeding issue, but the same set of bad criteria also led to bad selections in other years; 1996 was particularly egregious:

https://www.nytimes.com/1996/05/12/spor ... -snub.html

Ahh the fatty bucknell reference used like Hop fans citing titles from 1914 against the YWCA.

But yeah Albany and Cornell were boned on seeding in 2007/

Hey! The YWCA had a very good team that year. Even had a big win against Joe’s Deli.

DocBarrister

Yeah buts Katz didn’t start a club until 1917.

[joewillie78]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

Hopkins resume is better than Rutgers, Cornell, and Georgetown. Rutgers and Georgetown resumes aren’t even in the same universe to Hopkins. Plus they lost to them H2H.

Ahh, the old H2H argument, yet in your 2019 scenario of Cornell NOT being a lock, they beat Notre Dame AT NOTRE DAME, yet ND was in and Cornell out. Does H2H mean anything or nothing? Which is it?
Gobigred
Joewillie78

[joewillie78]

They should have applied the Jeff Teat bonus that year.

Instead we got yet another Hopkins 1st round hammering.

They did but that Damn Rule 13, superseded even JT51.

Gobigred
Joewillie78

[jrn19]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

Hopkins resume is better than Rutgers, Cornell, and Georgetown. Rutgers and Georgetown resumes aren’t even in the same universe to Hopkins. Plus they lost to them H2H.

Ahh, the old H2H argument, yet in your 2019 scenario of Cornell NOT being a lock, they beat Notre Dame AT NOTRE DAME, yet ND was in and Cornell out. Does H2H mean anything or nothing? Which is it?
Gobigred
Joewillie78

If you go back and look at my post, here was the Cornell and Notre Dame comparison:

Notre Dame

RPI: 9
Top 5 wins: 1
Top 10 wins: 3
Top 20 wins: 3
SOS: 2
Bad losses: None

Cornell

RPI: 12
Top 5 wins: 0
Top 10 wins: 2
Top 20 wins: 0
SOS: 8
Bad losses: None

If you want to argue Cornell should have got in over Notre Dame because the RPI margin is close and therefore indistinguishable and the Top 10 wins are close and Cornell won H2H, go ahead. Again, I'm not saying you can't present the argument. But this is what the whole picture looks like and the whole picture pretty clearly favored Notre Dame.

Here is what the whole picture looks like right now between Johns Hopkins, Rutgers, and Georgetown

Hopkins:

RPI: 4
Top 5 wins: 0
Top 10 wins: 1
Top 20 wins: 5
SOS: 3
Bad losses: 1

Rutgers
RPI: 11
Top 5 wins: 0
Top 10 wins: 0
Top 20 wins: 3
SOS: 16
Bad losses: 1

Georgetown
RPI: 7
Top 5 wins: 0
Top 10 wins: 0
Top 20 wins: 2
SOS: 13
Bad losses: 1

If you look at those whole resumes and think there is any conceivable world in which case either of those teams gets in the tournament over Hopkins when you ALSO add in that Hopkins beats them H2H, then my only question to you is what possible reasoning are you using to reach that conclusion because I can't find any possible facts or logic that could in any way support it whatsoever.

[laxreference]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

Hopkins resume is better than Rutgers, Cornell, and Georgetown. Rutgers and Georgetown resumes aren’t even in the same universe to Hopkins. Plus they lost to them H2H.

I think I nailed the scenario that CU77 suggested; I think he's at least not incorrect (although I can't say for sure because obviously there were many games not entered). Full list of hypothetical games is at the bottom. With those games entered, the selections look like this.

scenario1Selections.JPG (31.4 KiB) Viewed 823 times

Under this scenario, JHU would be the first one out

scenario1H2H.JPG (128.78 KiB) Viewed 823 times

Hypothetical Results Used to Get Here:

scenario1HypoGames.JPG (85.62 KiB) Viewed 823 times

[PizzaSnake]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

Yale? Not Princeton or Penn? What makes you think Yale will prevail?

[jrn19]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

Hopkins resume is better than Rutgers, Cornell, and Georgetown. Rutgers and Georgetown resumes aren’t even in the same universe to Hopkins. Plus they lost to them H2H.

I think I nailed the scenario that CU77 suggested; I think he's at least not incorrect (although I can't say for sure because obviously there were many games not entered). Full list of hypothetical games is at the bottom. With those games entered, the selections look like this.

scenario1Selections.JPG


Under this scenario, JHU would be the first one out

scenario1H2H.JPG



Hypothetical Results Used to Get Here:

scenario1HypoGames.JPG

In this scenario, Hopkins is ahead of Georgetown in RPI, both teams have 1 Top 10 win and 4 Top 20 wins, Hopkins best Top 10 win and best Top 20 win is better than Georgetown's best win and Hopkins beat Georgetown H2H. Hopkins would get in over Georgetown.

I'm also not sure for the purposes of this scenario why we are assuming Rutgers beats Maryland

[CU77]

Yale? Not Princeton or Penn? What makes you think Yale will prevail?

Yale currently has the highest RPI, making Cornell's hypothetical loss less bad for this scenario (where Cornell gets the nod over Hop).

[laxreference]

In this scenario, Hopkins is ahead of Georgetown in RPI, both teams have 1 Top 10 win and 4 Top 20 wins, Hopkins best Top 10 win and best Top 20 win is better than Georgetown's best win and Hopkins beat Georgetown H2H. Hopkins would get in over Georgetown.

I'm also not sure for the purposes of this scenario why we are assuming Rutgers beats Maryland

I wouldn't disagree. This is literally the one scenario where H2H makes sense. They are literally one point apart in SOR.

[PizzaSnake]

Yale? Not Princeton or Penn? What makes you think Yale will prevail?

Yale currently has the highest RPI, making Cornell's hypothetical loss less bad for this scenario (where Cornell gets the nod over Hop).

Ah, backing your way into a scenario.

Any conjecture as to which team will win the ILT?

[CU77]

Well, I hope it's Cornell of course, and they have the best Ivy resume as of now, but I think it's pretty open. Any given Friday/Sunday, and all that.

[lorin]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

Yale? Not Princeton or Penn? What makes you think Yale will prevail?

Why the hell would GT get an at large, their best win is Denver who lost to AF and they just almost lost to St Johns. If they lose one of next 3 games the only way in should be to win big east.

[laxreference]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

Yale? Not Princeton or Penn? What makes you think Yale will prevail?

Why the hell would GT get an at large, their best win is Denver who lost to AF and they just almost lost to St Johns. If they lose one of next 3 games the only way in should be to win big east.

Hoyas have the 10th most impressive set of wins and only two teams have a less damaging set of losses. (As measured by the RPI rank of their opponents.) Collectively, their wins and losses rate as the 8th most impressive nationally.

[RURICK]

If anyone thinks they’re not a lock they should have to present the scenario where Hopkins doesn’t get in.

Hop loses to Maryland, loses to Rutgers in the first round of the BT tournament (I don't know if this match-up is possible), Michigan or Ohio State wins the BT tournament, Cornell wins out except for losing the ILT championship to Yale, Georgetown wins out but loses the BE championship to Denver. Eight at-larges are Duke, UVa, ND, UMd, RU, PSU, Cornell, GT (not in order).

I like how you think.