NCAA Selection Discussion - Containment Thread

[HopFan16]

Current RPI in parentheses. Assuming Cornell (3), Maryland (8), Villanova (7), and Loyola (10) all win their conferences, this is how I see the at-large field right now with the obvious caveat being it's only March 20 and things will change...

In
Notre Dame (1)
Duke (2)
Virginia (5)

Bubble in
Yale (4)
Penn State (6)
Johns Hopkins (9)
North Carolina (12)
Rutgers (14)

Bubble out
Penn (13)
Denver (15)
Ohio State (16)
Georgetown (17)
Jacksonville (19)
Army (21)

[jrn19]

Current RPI in parentheses. Assuming Cornell (3), Maryland (8), Villanova (7), and Loyola (10) all win their conferences, this is how I see the at-large field right now with the obvious caveat being it's only March 20 and things will change...

In
Notre Dame (1)
Duke (2)
Virginia (5)

Bubble in
Yale (4)
Penn State (6)
Johns Hopkins (9)
North Carolina (12)
Rutgers (14)

Bubble out
Penn (13)
Denver (15)
Ohio State (16)
Georgetown (17)
Jacksonville (19)
Army (21)

This pretty much nails it. Jacksonville is a non-factor. We do this every year. They're 19th in RPI, it's going to drop when they face a litany of teams with bad records in conference play. Not happening. I expect they win their conference though.

Army would need to beat Cornell and have no more than 1 regular season loss. They're 21 in RPI right now and it's probably not going up. Here's the average RPI of their remaining opponents: 35.

Unless they win out into the Patriot League Championship Game, they're not going to have a Top 20 RPI. You're not getting in the tournament without a Top 20 RPI. A H2H win over Rutgers isn't going to matter if you don't have a Top 20 RPI. So you can rule that out.

Denver has a shot, however if they lose to Villanova and Georgetown in Big East play that would take them out. Especially if they lose to Georgetown, since Georgetown has no OOC resume to speak of.

As always, it's a self-perpetuating loop. The better your teams RPI's are, the more you benefit from playing one another in conference play. This year, that's going to benefit the ACC the most. Then the Big Ten. That's why they're going to rack up the most bids. The ACC will get 3 for sure and 4 if UNC can pick off a win over UVA/ND. The Big Ten will get 3 and 4 is on table as well if the Top 4 can separate from the bottom 2. If it's sort of eating itself, maybe not.

[laxreference]

First look at LacrosseReference Bracketology. This is the result of 1,200 simulations of the remainder of the DI MLAX season. To qualify as a lock, you must have been selected for the NCAA tournament in every single one. To qualify as a bubble team, you must have at least a 1% chance at an at-large. I have changed the weighting this year to give more weight to final projected SOR and slightly less weight to projected final RPI.

What do you think?

ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230326.jpg (110.85 KiB) Viewed 1431 times

[Farfromgeneva]

First look at LacrosseReference Bracketology. This is the result of 1,200 simulations of the remainder of the DI MLAX season. To qualify as a lock, you must have been selected for the NCAA tournament in every single one. To qualify as a bubble team, you must have at least a 1% chance at an at-large. I have changed the weighting this year to give more weight to final projected SOR and slightly less weight to projected final RPI.

What do you think?


ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230326.jpg

Feels right. How many are in for 97% but not 100%? Maybe set the threshold at 2.5% of simulations each way?

[laxreference]

First look at LacrosseReference Bracketology. This is the result of 1,200 simulations of the remainder of the DI MLAX season. To qualify as a lock, you must have been selected for the NCAA tournament in every single one. To qualify as a bubble team, you must have at least a 1% chance at an at-large. I have changed the weighting this year to give more weight to final projected SOR and slightly less weight to projected final RPI.

What do you think?


ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230326.jpg

Feels right. How many are in for 97% but not 100%? Maybe set the threshold at 2.5% of simulations each way?

Here's the full list. Maryland and ND would be locks with your criteria. Bryant and Lehigh would fall off of the bubble list.

[10stone5]

First look at LacrosseReference Bracketology. This is the result of 1,200 simulations of the remainder of the DI MLAX season. To qualify as a lock, you must have been selected for the NCAA tournament in every single one. To qualify as a bubble team, you must have at least a 1% chance at an at-large. I have changed the weighting this year to give more weight to final projected SOR and slightly less weight to projected final RPI.

What do you think?

ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230326.jpg

I prefer working my way from At Large bids.
So rounding, this works out to,
2 At Large for B1G
3 ACC
1 Ivies
1 Big East
1 Patriot

There are your 8 at large, I wouldn’t have much of a
problem with that kind of distribution.
UNC could really throw this mix out of whack.

[Farfromgeneva]

First look at LacrosseReference Bracketology. This is the result of 1,200 simulations of the remainder of the DI MLAX season. To qualify as a lock, you must have been selected for the NCAA tournament in every single one. To qualify as a bubble team, you must have at least a 1% chance at an at-large. I have changed the weighting this year to give more weight to final projected SOR and slightly less weight to projected final RPI.

What do you think?

ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230326.jpg

I prefer working my way from At Large bids.
So rounding, this works out to,
2 At Large for B1G
3 ACC
1 Ivies
1 Big East
1 Patriot

There are your 8 at large, I wouldn’t have much of a
problem with that kind of distribution.
UNC could really throw this mix out of whack.

Hard to see Patriot getting an at large at this point maybe Army if BU beats them and wins the Pl but that UMass loss is going to bite them.

[laxreference]

Hard to see Patriot getting an at large at this point maybe Army if BU beats them and wins the Pl but that UMass loss is going to bite them.

Agree that it would likely take Army winning out until the PL tournament and then someone else grabbing the AQ. That said, BU & Loyola have a chance to build a resume that would at least merit consideration as an at-large (without winning the AQ). So it's not necessarily AQ or bust for those teams yet.

[laxreference]

Here's how DI MLAX Bracketology looks after Saturday's games.

Lock = Made field in every single sim
Likely In = Made field in >=75% of sims
Work-to-Do = Made field in >=1% of sims

ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230402.jpg (104.43 KiB) Viewed 1201 times

[laxreference]

Here's how DI MLAX Bracketology looks after Saturday's games.

Lock = Made field in every single sim
Likely In = Made field in >=75% of sims
Work-to-Do = Made field in >=1% of sims

Still time for a lot of teams to make a run and earn a berth. With the chaos in the Big Ten, nobody outside of the ACC has earned Lock status. Big Ten gets 3 or 4 in most simulations, but I suppose it's possible that things could break right for them to get 5 or maybe 6. Cuse still with work to do to get into the work to do category. Denver jumps Nova for 2nd most likely to get a berth out of the Big East.

ncaa_projections_NCAAD1Men_20230409.jpg (104.7 KiB) Viewed 1023 times

[10stone5]

Right now,

it looks like Terps, Jays, PSU are locking in on the bottom half of the bracket seedings, 5 through 8.

Their numbers are just too too good - top 10 in RPI, SoS, Quality Wins - and the other contenders, from say the Ivies, are falling back.

I mean if Hopkins, PSU and Maryland just beat each other up, they don’t move anywhere, they just stay where they are - top five to eight.

[jrn19]

Top 6 seeds are probably locked as some combo of the ACC/B1G trios.

Cornell beats Army and takes care of business the rest of the way in Ivy play and they'll get a home game. Lose and that might be it, they're on the bubble. Army would take their spot for a home game for now, but they wouldn't have any margin for error for a loss with their RPI so low at 19. Think Cornell winds up getting one though.

Last spot is totally up in the air. North Carolina will get it if they can get in the tournament but as we've seen they've been totally uncompetitive against the top ACC teams. Georgetown wins out and they're probably set for it. I don't think a 2nd Ivy team will get it. If a 4th B1G team can make a run they could have a good shot at it. But I'd give Georgetown the best shot right now.

[blue angels]

Top 6 seeds are probably locked as some combo of the ACC/B1G trios.

Cornell beats Army and takes care of business the rest of the way in Ivy play and they'll get a home game. Lose and that might be it, they're on the bubble. Army would take their spot for a home game for now, but they wouldn't have any margin for error for a loss with their RPI so low at 19. Think Cornell winds up getting one though.

Last spot is totally up in the air. North Carolina will get it if they can get in the tournament but as we've seen they've been totally uncompetitive against the top ACC teams. Georgetown wins out and they're probably set for it. I don't think a 2nd Ivy team will get it. If a 4th B1G team can make a run they could have a good shot at it. But I'd give Georgetown the best shot right now.

I am no North Carolina fan but looks like the Ivy League, will be awarded more spots than their teams deserve for a 2nd year. I am very confident Princeton and Cornell would get boat raced by the Heels if they played.

[SkipPass]

What makes you think a Big East team gets in without an AQ? It’s a weak conference, and outside of Denver has no record of recent success in the NCAAs.

[laxreference]

What makes you think a Big East team gets in without an AQ? It’s a weak conference, and outside of Denver has no record of recent success in the NCAAs.

These are the probabilities for the Big East big 3

Georgetown makes it 90% of the time, winning the AQ 52% of the time. So in about half of the simulations, someone else won the Big East tournament. With Georgetown's current RPI and likely remaining wins, even when they don't win the AQ, they still get in 80% of the time. So a lot of the two-bid scenarios for the Big East involve someone else winning the AQ.

Denver makes it as an at-large in 15% of the simulations; for Villanova, it's 10%. Denver's average Selection Sunday RPI is 14.6, which is right on the cusp, but if they are able to get to 11 wins, they are going to be a lock.

Not likely, but not impossible.

[HopFan16]

April 10 at-large update. Projected conference winners (based on RPI): Johns Hopkins (4), Cornell (7), Georgetown (8), Army (19). I'm placing these teams below about where I think they'd fall in the at-large discussion if they don't end up winning their conferences.

Locks
Notre Dame
Virginia
Duke

Likely in, but not locks
Penn State
(Johns Hopkins)
Maryland

Bubble in
(Cornell)
(Georgetown)
North Carolina
Denver
Rutgers

Bubble out
Yale
Penn
Ohio State
Michigan
Villanova
(Army)
Loyola

I'm not considering anyone past 20 in RPI right now but in theory Syracuse (27) could enter the discussion with some more wins.

[10stone5]

Too bad for Army.
I’m guessing the coaches realize they need to upgrade their schedule, they’re better off losing to a high RPI team than beating a low RPI team.
Their SoS is in the tank.
But their Quality Wins are solid.

[10stone5]

What makes you think a Big East team gets in without an AQ? It’s a weak conference, and outside of Denver has no record of recent success in the NCAAs.

Georgetown has 5 decent wins, not top ten,
but their numbers are as good as anyone’s in the 6-15 or so range, that and the dramatic fall back of the Ivy teams - a not so great team is likely to get an At Large this year.

[jrn19]

Top 6 seeds are probably locked as some combo of the ACC/B1G trios.

Cornell beats Army and takes care of business the rest of the way in Ivy play and they'll get a home game. Lose and that might be it, they're on the bubble. Army would take their spot for a home game for now, but they wouldn't have any margin for error for a loss with their RPI so low at 19. Think Cornell winds up getting one though.

Last spot is totally up in the air. North Carolina will get it if they can get in the tournament but as we've seen they've been totally uncompetitive against the top ACC teams. Georgetown wins out and they're probably set for it. I don't think a 2nd Ivy team will get it. If a 4th B1G team can make a run they could have a good shot at it. But I'd give Georgetown the best shot right now.

I am no North Carolina fan but looks like the Ivy League, will be awarded more spots than their teams deserve for a 2nd year. I am very confident Princeton and Cornell would get boat raced by the Heels if they played.

Princeton isn’t even Top 20 in the RPI so they’re not getting in without the AQ

I’d love to see any evidence for Cornell getting blown out by North Carolina, not sure I’ve seen that, but nonetheless Cornell has a better resume right now than North Carolina. UNC hasn’t beaten any team remotely within the Top 20 aside from Hopkins. If North Carolina beats Notre Dame though, they’ll get in.

[laxpert]

Will they still be seeding eight and then pairing up the the eight at large based on travel and other indefinite criteria? Some formidable opponents could be in the at large pool. Could we see not only first round upsets but an unseeded team make it to the Final Four weekend?