Johns Hopkins 2023

[Hoponboard]

Jays’ team face off percentage has declined every year
since 2019 (excluding the incomplete 2020 season).

.467 - 2023 (likely to decline further after facing OSU and MD)

.494 - 2022

.520 - 2021

.540 - 2019

Is it a coaching issue, a player development problem, or a recruiting/transfer issue? Most likely, a combination of all three.

Without Mazzone’s 50 GBs and Hawley’s 25, the face off problem would be much worse.

[Sagittarius A*]

Jays’ team face off percentage has declined every year
since 2019 (excluding the incomplete 2020 season).

.467 - 2023 (likely to decline further after facing OSU and MD)

.494 - 2022

.520 - 2021

.540 - 2019

Is it a coaching issue, a player development problem, or a recruiting/transfer issue? Most likely, a combination of all three.

Without Mazzone’s 50 GBs and Hawley’s 25, the face off problem would be much worse.

They've been saving Narewski for the 4th Quarter to come in as the closer, but it's becoming increasingly clear they can no longer afford to do that. When PSU was making a run in the second quarter off face-offs wins, make it take it, they should have got Narewski in there to stop the run. They need to move him from Closer to Starter status, with Dunn/Callahan working in.

[Basement Bias]

This was a winnable game that was gifted away in the 2nd OT.

Why in the world do the Jays stand around for 30 seconds when you’re a man up with one minute to go in regulation? Fear of a turnover? You’re a man up. Make the defense move! Maybe they’ll commit another penalty out of desperation. Instead, Hop made it easy on the defense. They just had to defend one man for 10 seconds.

What happened to the motion offense? Why not cut to the cage?
Hopkins looked paralyzed as if they had never practiced a last one minute, one man up drill. That’s on the coaches.

Penn State did their best to squander their big advantage at the X by committing 8 more turnovers than Hopkins. They tried to give the game to Hopkins on their failed clear in OT that Degnon gathered up at the midline. One pass to a WIDE open Angelus who could have ended it, but Degnon hesitated until a defender was in the picture.

Collison is definitely in a shooting slump, but the good news is defenses may pay him less attention. He needs a few slam dunks on cuts to the cage to get his confidence back. Collison, Brown and English are the stars of this freshman class. Live with their growth pains and keep them on the field for the long term health of the program.

Oh, start scouting possible grad transfers at the X with Narewski gone next season.

The last EMO wasn't the best but wasn't terrible. Degnon passed up 2 open looks from 12 yards, the first is understandable, but the last one was with less than 10 seconds left on the shot clock. He needs to take that, even if it's not the perfect EMO look. Overall, it looked like they thought there was more time on the shot clock than the game clock. In fact, it was the opposite.

I'm with you on the play in OT off the successful ride. That's a goal if Degnon connects with Angelus. Yes, it was about 30 yards and not a gimme, but in that situation I'm pulling the trigger. Maybe taking the "make the simple play" mantra too seriously?

The clock management is on the coaches. He tried to call a TO with 3 on the shot clock but it wasn't granted. My frustration also was with Melendez getting one look way too late. Why wouldn't you let the hot hand touch it more? Like I said before, just frustrating as it was a game they woulda/coulda/shoulda won.

[51percentcorn]

AHHh - one that got away - few thoughts
- Have to give alot of credit to the Penn State defense and Fracyon - ultimately the difference. For a great part of the game if you take Melendez's shooting out of the equation for a second - the offense looked like drecch. Nothing for Angelus - a fairly simple assist for Collison - 2 goals from Degnon but one was right handed which you'll take as a defense. They did an awesome job on the knowns and Melendez may not beat Fraycon 6 times again so if you play them again you better figure something out
- Milliman and Hopkins mismanaged the end of regulation - they still might not have scored but you would have felt better about it. First, if I am saying this out loud at the exact time a coach should have been able to figure out the approach and do the following : tell Angelus to hold the ball until the clock hits 60 - he was on your half of the field - then have him go so the first real attempt from some one is approximately with 40-45 seconds on the clock. This forced pass into McDermott I think was kind of a ehh - give it a try we have an EMO coming. Then regardless you HAVE to call a time out - draw up your best EMO play and have a great attempt to win the game. That way you have 2 shots to win the game when you didn't get a single one. OR - and I must admit I am not sure - but a penalty would carry over yes? So if you are going to pass it around the perimeter would you at least get the ball to start OT? The one thing you can't do is have a shot clock violation and Penn State came pretty close to scoring in those last 4 seconds.
- Everyone needs to remember Narewski is operating with I believe multiple repairs on his patellar tendon. I am pretty sure he has to be managed pretty carefully - while you can quibble about the timing maybe (but as '16 pointed out Matt was not winning draws early) - they did have him out there for critical face-offs at the end which is what was needed as Dunn and Callahan were a combined 2 for 13.
- Pretty wierd - for the first 20 minutes - you shut them out (though Marcille stole 2) - in the second half and OTs you allow 5 in 35 minutes or so but in 10 minutes you give up 7. Smith - for all his positives - needs to stop surrendering easy goals by approaching guys out of control and swinging the lumber as they love to say. That goal was preventable. Then why we decided to slump in so far that PSU was dropping fairly uncontested bombs seemed odd. And the Brett Martin play was unconscionable. It appeared like he simply thought I am frustrated so I am going to commit a penalty.
- Degnon has to throw that pass
- Still they got smacked in the mouth and responded in the 4th yet again

[Sagittarius A*]

As I said, I was underwhelmed with the officiating.
The no-call on Narewski in OT being clearly pushed from behind and then saying he was laying on the ball when he wasn't, was adding insult to injury.
In my mind, that goes from the "bad calls" category to the "something is seriously wrong" category.
And yes I'm a conspiracy theorist, but hey "the eyes don't lie."

[Hoponboard]

You never want to lose a game with your player making a hockey assist on the winning goal.

Alternatives in that situation.

1) Throw the ball out of bounds (At least, requires a restart)

2) Chuck the ball high upfield (Preferable, because it could have eaten up a lot of time and even given Hopkins possession)

3) At worst, fall on the ball and waste 20 seconds before getting called for a failed clear.

The winning goal was scored at 0.52. It took a dying quail of a pass in the direction of the Hopkins goal to set up Winkoff’s shot.

[HopFan16]

Shoulda woulda coulda. You can play Monday morning quarterback all you want but the bottom line is they had multiple chances to win the game in the 4th and then again in overtime and they didn't make the one play they needed to make. At 2-0 in-conference and on a 5-game win streak maybe they lost that killer instinct. I do think with the game on the line they were playing a bit too much not to lose, e.g. Degnon electing not to fire that long pass to Angelus.

You move on. It adds some importance to next weekend's Homecoming game vs. Ohio State. Had we entered that at 10-3 overall, 3-0 in the B1G and an NCAA berth looking extremely likely, you might have been in danger of laying an egg in front of the Golden Jays of 1953. But now we need this one. I expect the Jays to play well.

[DocBarrister]

Shoulda woulda coulda. You can play Monday morning quarterback all you want but the bottom line is they had multiple chances to win the game in the 4th and then again in overtime and they didn't make the one play they needed to make. At 2-0 in-conference and on a 5-game win streak maybe they lost that killer instinct. I do think with the game on the line they were playing a bit too much not to lose, e.g. Degnon electing not to fire that long pass to Angelus.

You move on. It adds some importance to next weekend's Homecoming game vs. Ohio State. Had we entered that at 10-3 overall, 3-0 in the B1G and an NCAA berth looking extremely likely, you might have been in danger of laying an egg in front of the Golden Jays of 1953. But now we need this one. I expect the Jays to play well.

Ohio State is now a must-win game.

Taking Penn State to two OTs at Penn State is a pretty good effort this season.

But the NCAA selection committee will probably look down on any team that finishes with a losing streak, and the Blue Jays are facing a realistic scenario where they lose their final four games.

This Hopkins squad has been resilient and their effort to date has been admirable.

Still, good effort won’t count for much anymore moving forward. Blue Jays have some deficiencies they need to fix if they want to accomplish more than a winning record.

The 2023 Blue Jays are a good team, but they are wildly inconsistent and streaky, even within a single game. Against maybe the toughest B1G conference schedule ever, that won’t get you very far.

I’m optimistic the Blue Jays will put things together for a strong finish to the season.

We’ll see.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Jays’ team face off percentage has declined every year
since 2019 (excluding the incomplete 2020 season).

.467 - 2023 (likely to decline further after facing OSU and MD)

.494 - 2022

.520 - 2021

.540 - 2019

Is it a coaching issue, a player development problem, or a recruiting/transfer issue? Most likely, a combination of all three.

Without Mazzone’s 50 GBs and Hawley’s 25, the face off problem would be much worse.

The Blue Jays will have trouble doing anything with a 0.467 FO percentage as the competition gets tougher. The fourth quarter comebacks have been fun to watch, but better competition will keep you from winning those games, as Penn State demonstrated.

I’m sure the solution to the FO problem is there, and it’s not just some guy named Narewski. Dunn and Callahan can do better. If not, then the coaches need to find some guys who can. Dunn, Callahan, and Narewski are not the only FO specialists on the roster. If Dunn and Callahan had just turned a few more faceoffs into gb battles rather than clean FO wins for Penn State, the Blue Jays might have pulled off the win.

Blue Jays’ D has played well this season, but they have also played too much D overall. The FO crew needs to improve, and fast.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Jays’ team face off percentage has declined every year
since 2019 (excluding the incomplete 2020 season).

.467 - 2023 (likely to decline further after facing OSU and MD)

.494 - 2022

.520 - 2021

.540 - 2019

Is it a coaching issue, a player development problem, or a recruiting/transfer issue? Most likely, a combination of all three.

Without Mazzone’s 50 GBs and Hawley’s 25, the face off problem would be much worse.

Anyone know if Nick Lane is injured? Any reason he can’t take some faceoffs?

Sure, he’s a freshman, but as the saying goes, you’re no longer a freshman after most of the freshman season is done.

Assuming Lane is still available to play, why not give him a chance? All three FO guys are sub-0.500. Lane won 77% of FOs in HS. Was runner-up MI lax player of the year.

More importantly, the kid weighs 225 lbs. If nothing else, he can help wear down an opposing FO specialist.

DocBarrister

[HopFan16]

The Blue Jays will have trouble doing anything with a 0.467 FO percentage as the competition gets tougher.

The FO crew needs to improve, and fast.

Blue Jays now have a 0.467 FO win percentage (165 out of 353).

Serious problem.

Blue Jays aren’t going to make any noise this season unless they fix that issue.

Anyway, it’s not on one guy … coaches need to fix FOs if they want to go anywhere this season.

If your team’s season FO percentage is 0.467, then you have a problem that needs fixing.

Hey Doc just wondering what your thoughts are on the faceoff situation?

[DocBarrister]

The Blue Jays will have trouble doing anything with a 0.467 FO percentage as the competition gets tougher.

The FO crew needs to improve, and fast.

Blue Jays now have a 0.467 FO win percentage (165 out of 353).

Serious problem.

Blue Jays aren’t going to make any noise this season unless they fix that issue.

Anyway, it’s not on one guy … coaches need to fix FOs if they want to go anywhere this season.

If your team’s season FO percentage is 0.467, then you have a problem that needs fixing.

Hey Doc just wondering what your thoughts are on the faceoff situation?

What are yours?

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

The coaches blew the game in the 2nd quarter. Either Narewski can play or he can’t. PM’s response to the question of what they’re going to do about FOs in the second half … “We’re going to try Matt, Matt Narewski” … almost made me want to throw my phone at the screen.

He's on a pitch count. He can't take every draw. If he started and played the entire first half he would not have been able to help down the stretch. Dunn and Callahan and the wings needed to do a better job in the first half. This was not exactly TD Ierlan they were up against.

Marcille had only one save in the 4th quarter and both overtimes combined. Fracyon had 7 in that stretch. That's not going to get it done.

Despite all that, the Jays had multiple chances to win, just could not get it across the finish line tonight. It's hard to win on the road in this conference, especially this year. Fairly encouraged by how the defense buckled down late despite having to play a lot of it due to the faceoff disparity.

Game balls to Fracyon and Mullins as the difference makers.

Nevertheless, sometimes the ball doesn't bounce your way.

[primitiveskills]

F*ck, Deans has a cast on his right hand

Kind of got buried in the thread, but it would suck if he has a significant injury. Looked more like a splint, but what do I know? He was becoming a real force at LSM. Would be a big loss.

[HopFan16]

F*ck, Deans has a cast on his right hand

Kind of got buried in the thread, but it would suck if he has a significant injury. Looked more like a splint, but what do I know? He was becoming a real force at LSM. Would be a big loss.

He had been playing so well. Would be a big bummer indeed if he can't return this season.

Kaufman is the next man up. He was playing a lot in the first half but as the game went on it felt like Brown was taking virtually every shift at LSM. Obviously his length is tantalizing but I think he's still figuring out how to use his body to his advantage.

Dixon mentioned we might see Raposo with a pole. Didn't happen but that'd be wild. Give Todaro or Bowler a chance before you resort to that.

We're lucky Brown has burst onto the scene as well as he has otherwise there'd be an issue at pole given Deans' injuries. Although that issue was already mitigated to some extent with both Smith and especially Mazzone's ability to play on the faceoff wings.

Jays are still #4 in the RPI after the loss last night. A top 10 win over GTown and three other top 20 wins. No bad losses (for now...we'll see where Loyola ends up). I think our magic number is 1. Would sure be nice to unofficially "clinch" an NCAA tourney berth in front of all the alums next week.

[laxpert]

A few positives:
........

Edited to add: Jackson Raposo. I’ll admit to raising an eyebrow when he switched to SSDM (scarred by the tired “small SSDM” narrative as I am), but he’s played very well on the defensive end and is as reliable a clearing option as we’ve had in awhile.

Former Blue Jay Evan Zinn is contributing at Virginia as a SSDM. Do you think he would have accepted that role at JHU?

[molo]

He did play some ssdm at Hopkins.

[flalax22]

A few positives:
........

Edited to add: Jackson Raposo. I’ll admit to raising an eyebrow when he switched to SSDM (scarred by the tired “small SSDM” narrative as I am), but he’s played very well on the defensive end and is as reliable a clearing option as we’ve had in awhile.

Former Blue Jay Evan Zinn is contributing at Virginia as a SSDM. Do you think he would have accepted that role at JHU?

He did play SSDM at Hopkins and by all reports I heard was miserable in that role. He seems to have embraced it at UVA. Winning will do that

[steel_hop]

Shoulda woulda coulda. You can play Monday morning quarterback all you want but the bottom line is they had multiple chances to win the game in the 4th and then again in overtime and they didn't make the one play they needed to make. At 2-0 in-conference and on a 5-game win streak maybe they lost that killer instinct. I do think with the game on the line they were playing a bit too much not to lose, e.g. Degnon electing not to fire that long pass to Angelus.

You move on. It adds some importance to next weekend's Homecoming game vs. Ohio State. Had we entered that at 10-3 overall, 3-0 in the B1G and an NCAA berth looking extremely likely, you might have been in danger of laying an egg in front of the Golden Jays of 1953. But now we need this one. I expect the Jays to play well.

Ohio State is now a must-win game.

Taking Penn State to two OTs at Penn State is a pretty good effort this season.

But the NCAA selection committee will probably look down on any team that finishes with a losing streak, and the Blue Jays are facing a realistic scenario where they lose their final four games.

This Hopkins squad has been resilient and their effort to date has been admirable.

Still, good effort won’t count for much anymore moving forward. Blue Jays have some deficiencies they need to fix if they want to accomplish more than a winning record.

The 2023 Blue Jays are a good team, but they are wildly inconsistent and streaky, even within a single game. Against maybe the toughest B1G conference schedule ever, that won’t get you very far.

I’m optimistic the Blue Jays will put things together for a strong finish to the season.

We’ll see.

DocBarrister

I find the new pessimistic Doc very disturbing given I'm not happy they lost but see it for what it was. (The sun might be rising in the West).

The team lost on Saturday for the reasons someone posted higher up. Sometimes the ball doesn't bounce your way or a call goes against you. The call withholding call was awful because it should have been a push from behind. It happens.

I don't think PM had a great final minutes in that game. The EMO play was not a great idea. I understand the idea of holding the ball for the last shot in practice but I'd rather score and force PSU to make a play. In the end it cause Hopkins to not even take a shot. Agreed that Degnon has to take one of those two 12-14 yard shots. Gotta get a ball on cage than lose the ball. PM's call with 3-4 second left in the EMO that the refs didn't see didn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Hopkins isn't getting a good shot off there - maybe he was setting up the defense.

I think overall the offense didn't look very good. If Melendez doesn't have a career game, PSU wins that in a walk. But, I also think that is a testament to Hopkins depth this year (not something said in the past) that Hopkins can get scoring from all over the line-up to keep them in games. The final turnover was brutal. Bad decision (probably should have looked back farther to the goalie) compounded by not a great throw. Shrug shoulders - it happens.

Hats off to PSU, they didn't make any real big mistakes in the last part of the game.

[HopFan16]

Hats off to PSU, they didn't make any real big mistakes in the last part of the game.

They kinda did — they failed a clear with 30 seconds left in the first overtime (I think their guy literally just dropped the ball?) which Degnon picked up. We had a chance for an odd-man rush but elected to slow it down. Didn't make them pay for that mistake.

There were so many "what-ifs." Jays nearly won that game like 5 times but just couldn't finish it. The game-losing turnover is getting all the attention but what the heck was Szuluk doing on PSU's game-tying goal off the restart to make it 11-11 at the end of the 4th? He was in no man's land. Even still, that's a jump shot from 10 yards away and not the greatest angle — that's a save Marcille can make.

Melendez's shot from up top with two minutes left in the second OT nearly went in — Fracyon made the save he needed to make. I didn't notice this at the time but Grimes picked up the rebound and his shot hit the post. We didn't get the shot clock reset.

I would not recommend watching the end of this game back. Play this game 10 times and Hopkins might win it 9. But unfortunately we live in the universe of the 10th.

Win Saturday and we can pretend this never happened.