All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

If the plan is to "think like a Russian", then you have to follow through, and not just pick and choose to do it here and there.

1. Russians think that Ukraine is theirs...who cares why. There will be no peace until they own every last inch. Act accordingly
2. Putin will not sue for peace until his popularity ratings drop. Act accordingly.
3. The Russians will not give up Crimea. Act accordingly

Exactly...Putin has been telling the world his intentions with for well over a decade...he means it and won't stop, until stopped.

I expect the Chinese will present a "truce" in the next weeks, which will be nothing more than a pause to enable Russia to build more weapons, train more combatants.

The Ukrainians will reject it and push forward over the next few months.

Over the past century, Russia has proven to be a highly malignant and destabilizing state.

Long term strategic planning should include efforts to promote the further dissolution of the Russian Federation, which is little more than a rump version of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union. Russia needs to be neutralized as a military power, and the unfortunate Ukrainians are shouldering the tragic burdens of that effort.

DocBarrister

Good luck with that. THAT is dangerous & unrealistic thinking. Tell us how you would achieve the dissolution of the Russian Federation.

[old salt]

If the plan is to "think like a Russian", then you have to follow through, and not just pick and choose to do it here and there.

1. Russians think that Ukraine is theirs...who cares why. There will be no peace until they own every last inch. Act accordingly
2. Putin will not sue for peace until his popularity ratings drop. Act accordingly.
3. The Russians will not give up Crimea. Act accordingly

IMHO -- neither side has the ability to achieve victory. This is why I've thought from the outset that the most likely outcome is a frozen conflict (like Korea) based on an armistice along a line of contact. Both sides are exhausted & in stalemate. The concern is that Russia will recover, reinforce & rearm faster than Ukraine can. I'm not convinced that's what would happen. As Ukraine continues to receive & adapt western weapons, their ability to defend themselves increases. Delay may work to Ukraine's advantage. Especially if there is an armistice & cease fire & Ukraine's economy can begin to recover & the Ukrainians can begin paying for their own defense, reconstruction & the subsistence of their returning population. Ukraine may have to accept the loss of the territory that Russia now holds. That would result in a more stable & mutually defensible border anyway & reduce Russia's motivation to push for total victory. The cost to rebuild & resettle that devastated territory will be enormous. Let Russia struggle with that burden while Ukraine resettles & rebuilds the rest of their country & builds a defense capable of deterring further Russian aggression. Ukraine is a complete US & EU client state. That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

[MDlaxfan76]

Nope, the Ukrainians are poised to push the Russians out, or at least that's definitely what they believe. I'm inclined to think they're right.

If this thing is stalemated 2 years from now, different matter.

[PizzaSnake]

If the plan is to "think like a Russian", then you have to follow through, and not just pick and choose to do it here and there.

1. Russians think that Ukraine is theirs...who cares why. There will be no peace until they own every last inch. Act accordingly
2. Putin will not sue for peace until his popularity ratings drop. Act accordingly.
3. The Russians will not give up Crimea. Act accordingly

IMHO -- neither side has the ability to achieve victory. This is why I've thought from the outset that the most likely outcome is a frozen conflict (like Korea) based on an armistice along a line of contact. Both sides are exhausted & in stalemate. The concern is that Russia will recover, reinforce & rearm faster than Ukraine can. I'm not convinced that's what would happen. As Ukraine continues to receive & adapt western weapons, their ability to defend themselves increases. Delay may work to Ukraine's advantage. Especially if there is an armistice & cease fire & Ukraine's economy can begin to recover & the Ukrainians can begin paying for their own defense, reconstruction & the subsistence of their returning population. Ukraine may have to accept the loss of the territory that Russia now holds. That would result in a more stable & mutually defensible border anyway & reduce Russia's motivation to push for total victory. The cost to rebuild & resettle that devastated territory will be enormous. Let Russia struggle with that burden while Ukraine resettles & rebuilds the rest of their country & builds a defense capable of deterring further Russian aggression. Ukraine is a complete US & EU client state. That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

How about 20 years and $2.2T?

[old salt]

That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

How about 20 years and $2.2T?

Are you anxious to do it again ? How many Ukrainian or Russian terrorists attacked us on 9-11 ?

Let's pay to defend & rebuild Ukraine so they can become EUroburghers & screw us on trade, while we continue to defend them.

[PizzaSnake]

That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

How about 20 years and $2.2T?

Are you anxious to do it again ? How many Ukrainian or Russian terrorists attacked us on 9-11 ?

Let's pay to defend & rebuild Ukraine so they can become EUroburghers & screw us on trade, while we continue to defend them.

Since you bring up free-riders (your Euroburghers), I think we'd get a better return on investment than we have on the last forty odd years of tax cuts for the 1%...

[old salt]

That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

How about 20 years and $2.2T?

Are you anxious to do it again ? How many Ukrainian or Russian terrorists attacked us on 9-11 ?

Let's pay to defend & rebuild Ukraine so they can become EUroburghers & screw us on trade, while we continue to defend them.

Since you bring up free-riders (your Euroburghers), I think we'd get a better return on investment than we have on the last forty odd years of tax cuts for the 1%...

I agree.

[PizzaSnake]

That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

How about 20 years and $2.2T?

Are you anxious to do it again ? How many Ukrainian or Russian terrorists attacked us on 9-11 ?

Let's pay to defend & rebuild Ukraine so they can become EUroburghers & screw us on trade, while we continue to defend them.

Since you bring up free-riders (your Euroburghers), I think we'd get a better return on investment than we have on the last forty odd years of tax cuts for the 1%...

I agree.

When the American "bread basket" disappears with the depletion of the Ogalalla aquifer (sooner than you think), we're going to need a source of grain.

[DocBarrister]

If the plan is to "think like a Russian", then you have to follow through, and not just pick and choose to do it here and there.

1. Russians think that Ukraine is theirs...who cares why. There will be no peace until they own every last inch. Act accordingly
2. Putin will not sue for peace until his popularity ratings drop. Act accordingly.
3. The Russians will not give up Crimea. Act accordingly

Exactly...Putin has been telling the world his intentions with for well over a decade...he means it and won't stop, until stopped.

I expect the Chinese will present a "truce" in the next weeks, which will be nothing more than a pause to enable Russia to build more weapons, train more combatants.

The Ukrainians will reject it and push forward over the next few months.

Over the past century, Russia has proven to be a highly malignant and destabilizing state.

Long term strategic planning should include efforts to promote the further dissolution of the Russian Federation, which is little more than a rump version of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union. Russia needs to be neutralized as a military power, and the unfortunate Ukrainians are shouldering the tragic burdens of that effort.

DocBarrister

Good luck with that. THAT is dangerous & unrealistic thinking. Tell us how you would achieve the dissolution of the Russian Federation.

Putin has been doing the deed himself. First by treating the Russian Federation’s many regions more like occupied territories than integral parts of Russia. Second, by launching his doomed crusade to resurrect the Russian Empire.

Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at the international affairs think tank Chatham House, believes it's inevitable that Russian President Vladimir Putin and his army will be defeated by Ukraine. As the war head into its eleventh month, Ash said the real issue looming over Moscow's invasion is what will happen to Putin's Russia, and whether history will repeat itself.

In an op-ed published by the Kyiv Post on Saturday, Ash, who has advised various governments on Ukraine-Russia policy, said that he believes Russia will break off into new states—resulting in the exact opposite of what Putin had hoped to achieve when he launched the invasion into Ukraine almost a year ago.

"I see a decent chance that we see the end of Putin and, while not my base case, I think it's possible we see a collapse of the Federation into many new states—as with the USSR in 1991," Ash wrote.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-c ... 5841?amp=1

DocBarrister

[Brooklyn]

Good luck to the ICC in trying to get Putin arrested. Too bad they didn't do the same for Bush ~ would have served as good practice for executing international warrants.

As I think about it, too bad the ICC did not do the same to tRump when he supposedly kidnapped refugee children and separated them from their families. Don't recall how that turned out but it was said to be the same thing the ICC accused Putin of doing.

[DocBarrister]

Good luck to the ICC in trying to get Putin arrested. Too bad they didn't do the same for Bush ~ would have served as good practice for executing international warrants.

Although it wasn’t the ICC (another war crimes court, the ICTY), it should be noted that Slobodan Milošević, the former murderous leader of Serbia, died in prison in The Hague.

One can hope that Putin faces a similar fate.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

Good luck to the ICC in trying to get Putin arrested. Too bad they didn't do the same for Bush ~ would have served as good practice for executing international warrants.

Although it wasn’t the ICC (another war crimes court, the ICTY), it should be noted that Slobodan Milošević, the former murderous leader of Serbia, died in prison in The Hague.

One can hope that Putin faces a similar fate.

That'll be great. The largest nation on the planet, with the most nucs, becoming a failed state, flying apart in a scramble for power, with no logical expectation of what will result. ...& you think things can't get any worse than under Putin. Be careful what you wish for.

Janusz Bugajski, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, has warned that Western policymakers are gravely unprepared for an "impending" collapse of Russia.

"Instead of planning contingencies for external spillovers and capitalizing on Russia's de-imperialization, however, Western officials appear to be stuck in a bygone era, believing they can return to the post-Cold War status quo," he wrote in a January 12 op-ed for Politico..

As you read below, substitute USA for Russia & Washington DC for Moscow.

https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion ... tegration/

The benefits of Russia’s coming disintegration

by JANUSZ BUGAJSKI, JANUARY 12, 2023

The West made a grave mistake when it assumed the collapse of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism.

The rupture of the Russian Federation will be the third phase of imperial collapse after the unravelling of the Soviet bloc and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s

We are currently witnessing an unfolding revolution in global security that Western policy makers are clearly unprepared for — the impending collapse of the Russian Federation.

Instead of planning contingencies for external spillovers and capitalizing on Russia’s de-imperialization, however, Western officials appear to be stuck in a bygone era, believing they can return to the post-Cold War status quo, with some even offering Moscow security guarantees to keep the country intact.

But Russia is a failed state. It’s been unable to transform itself into a nation-state, a civic state or even a stable imperial state. It is a federation in name only, as the central government pursues a policy of ethnic and linguistic homogenization and denies any powers to the country’s 83 republics and regions. However, hyper-centralization has exposed the country’s multiple weaknesses, including a contracting economy squeezed by international sanctions, military defeats in Ukraine that reveal the incompetence and corruption of its ruling elite, and disquiet in numerous regions over their shrinking budgets.

Moscow is finally being exposed as a rapacious imperial center that’s exhausting its capacities to hold the country together. Yet, most Western leaders still fail to see the benefits of Russia’s disintegration.

The rupture of the Russian Federation will be the third phase of imperial collapse after the unravelling of the Soviet bloc and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. It’s driven by elite power struggles and intensifying rivalries between the central government and disaffected regions, which in some parts of the country, could lead to civil wars and border disputes. However, it will also embolden the emergence of new states and inter-regional federations, which will control their own resources and no longer send their men to die for Moscow’s empire.

As Moscow turns inward, its capacity for foreign aggression will diminish. And as a rump state, under intense international sanctions and shorn of its resource base in Siberia, it will have severely reduced capabilities to attack neighbors. From the Arctic to the Black Sea, NATO’s eastern front will become more secure; while Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will regain their occupied territories, and petition for European Union and NATO integration without fear of Russia’s reaction.

Countries in Central Asia will also feel increasingly liberated, and they will be able to turn to the West for energy, security and economic connections. China will be in a weaker position to expand its influence as it can no longer collaborate with Moscow, and new pro-Western states can emerge from within the Russian federation, enhancing stability in several regions of Europe and Eurasia.

Although nuclear weapons will remain a potential threat, Russia’s leaders won’t commit national suicide by launching them against the West. Instead, they will try to salvage their political futures and economic fortunes — as did the Soviet elite. And even if some emerging states acquire such weapons, they won’t have any reason to deploy them while seeking international recognition and economic assistance. Post-Russian states are instead likely to pursue nuclear disarmament — much like Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan after the Soviet demise.

The notion that Western leaders only help President Vladimir Putin by talking about Russia’s collapse is misleading. The Kremlin claims the West wants to destroy Russia regardless of actual policy, and denials from Washington and Brussels simply fuel Kremlin conspiracies.

Rather, a much more effective approach would be to clearly specify what the West supports. Openly backing pluralism, democracy, federalism, civil rights and the autonomy of its republics and regions can help embolden Russia’s citizens by demonstrating they aren’t globally isolated. They will also need access to the information that Moscow suppresses, especially when it comes to providing security, economic development and cultivating peaceful, productive relations with neighbors.

Even after the horrors of Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the justifications the country’s government leaders and advisers have given for genocide, Western officials’ hope that beneficial relations can be established with a post-Putin Kremlin, or that liberals can democratize the empire, is wishful thinking.

The West made a grave mistake when it assumed the collapse of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism. And as imperial states invariably collapse when they overreach and when centrifugal pressures are fueled by economic distress, regional resentments and national revivals, it must now avoid repeating that mistake — this time by wrongly presuming the current empire is permanent.

[PizzaSnake]

Good luck to the ICC in trying to get Putin arrested. Too bad they didn't do the same for Bush ~ would have served as good practice for executing international warrants.

Although it wasn’t the ICC (another war crimes court, the ICTY), it should be noted that Slobodan Milošević, the former murderous leader of Serbia, died in prison in The Hague.

One can hope that Putin faces a similar fate.

That'll be great. The largest nation on the planet, with the most nucs, becoming a failed state, flying apart in a scramble for power, with no logical expectation of what will result. ...& you think things can't get any worse than under Putin. Be careful what you wish for.

Janusz Bugajski, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, has warned that Western policymakers are gravely unprepared for an "impending" collapse of Russia.

"Instead of planning contingencies for external spillovers and capitalizing on Russia's de-imperialization, however, Western officials appear to be stuck in a bygone era, believing they can return to the post-Cold War status quo," he wrote in a January 12 op-ed for Politico..

As you read below, substitute USA for Russia & Washington DC for Moscow.

https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion ... tegration/

The benefits of Russia’s coming disintegration

by JANUSZ BUGAJSKI, JANUARY 12, 2023

The West made a grave mistake when it assumed the collapse of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism.

The rupture of the Russian Federation will be the third phase of imperial collapse after the unravelling of the Soviet bloc and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s

We are currently witnessing an unfolding revolution in global security that Western policy makers are clearly unprepared for — the impending collapse of the Russian Federation.

Instead of planning contingencies for external spillovers and capitalizing on Russia’s de-imperialization, however, Western officials appear to be stuck in a bygone era, believing they can return to the post-Cold War status quo, with some even offering Moscow security guarantees to keep the country intact.

But Russia is a failed state. It’s been unable to transform itself into a nation-state, a civic state or even a stable imperial state. It is a federation in name only, as the central government pursues a policy of ethnic and linguistic homogenization and denies any powers to the country’s 83 republics and regions. However, hyper-centralization has exposed the country’s multiple weaknesses, including a contracting economy squeezed by international sanctions, military defeats in Ukraine that reveal the incompetence and corruption of its ruling elite, and disquiet in numerous regions over their shrinking budgets.

Moscow is finally being exposed as a rapacious imperial center that’s exhausting its capacities to hold the country together. Yet, most Western leaders still fail to see the benefits of Russia’s disintegration.

The rupture of the Russian Federation will be the third phase of imperial collapse after the unravelling of the Soviet bloc and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. It’s driven by elite power struggles and intensifying rivalries between the central government and disaffected regions, which in some parts of the country, could lead to civil wars and border disputes. However, it will also embolden the emergence of new states and inter-regional federations, which will control their own resources and no longer send their men to die for Moscow’s empire.

As Moscow turns inward, its capacity for foreign aggression will diminish. And as a rump state, under intense international sanctions and shorn of its resource base in Siberia, it will have severely reduced capabilities to attack neighbors. From the Arctic to the Black Sea, NATO’s eastern front will become more secure; while Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will regain their occupied territories, and petition for European Union and NATO integration without fear of Russia’s reaction.

Countries in Central Asia will also feel increasingly liberated, and they will be able to turn to the West for energy, security and economic connections. China will be in a weaker position to expand its influence as it can no longer collaborate with Moscow, and new pro-Western states can emerge from within the Russian federation, enhancing stability in several regions of Europe and Eurasia.

Although nuclear weapons will remain a potential threat, Russia’s leaders won’t commit national suicide by launching them against the West. Instead, they will try to salvage their political futures and economic fortunes — as did the Soviet elite. And even if some emerging states acquire such weapons, they won’t have any reason to deploy them while seeking international recognition and economic assistance. Post-Russian states are instead likely to pursue nuclear disarmament — much like Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan after the Soviet demise.

The notion that Western leaders only help President Vladimir Putin by talking about Russia’s collapse is misleading. The Kremlin claims the West wants to destroy Russia regardless of actual policy, and denials from Washington and Brussels simply fuel Kremlin conspiracies.

Rather, a much more effective approach would be to clearly specify what the West supports. Openly backing pluralism, democracy, federalism, civil rights and the autonomy of its republics and regions can help embolden Russia’s citizens by demonstrating they aren’t globally isolated. They will also need access to the information that Moscow suppresses, especially when it comes to providing security, economic development and cultivating peaceful, productive relations with neighbors.

Even after the horrors of Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the justifications the country’s government leaders and advisers have given for genocide, Western officials’ hope that beneficial relations can be established with a post-Putin Kremlin, or that liberals can democratize the empire, is wishful thinking.

The West made a grave mistake when it assumed the collapse of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism. And as imperial states invariably collapse when they overreach and when centrifugal pressures are fueled by economic distress, regional resentments and national revivals, it must now avoid repeating that mistake — this time by wrongly presuming the current empire is permanent.

If you meant that the US will be losing its empire, now that's an interesting topic.

But, to concentrate on the article, I find the comments re the break-up of the Russian state and the devolution of control of Central and Eastern Asia Russia more interesting.

I think that China will slurp up that territory, finally allowing it to be an Arctic state and move towards resource exploitation and energy assurance, a long-term problem. Why "buy" "Russian" (Siberian) petroleum when they can just take it? Russia is already China's btich, they just haven't made peace with it yet. If I were Europe I would be more concerned about the coming conflict between Russia and China re the Siberian territory and its storehouse of natural resources than any fight between the dying embers of Russian European hegemony.

[Brooklyn]

Good luck to the ICC in trying to get Putin arrested. Too bad they didn't do the same for Bush ~ would have served as good practice for executing international warrants.

Although it wasn’t the ICC (another war crimes court, the ICTY), it should be noted that Slobodan Milošević, the former murderous leader of Serbia, died in prison in The Hague.

One can hope that Putin faces a similar fate.

DocBarrister

There have been a few African leaders who went on trial for war crimes (esp from Liberia). Charles Taylor comes to mind immediately. But that doesn't seem to stop the wars that go on in that continent.

As for Putin, yeah, he may his faults but he's an angel compared to Bush who killed over a million innocents with the blessing of the right wing delusionals who thought they were doing the world a big favor.

[DocBarrister]

That financial burden can't & won't be sustained indefinitely.

How about 20 years and $2.2T?

Are you anxious to do it again ? How many Ukrainian or Russian terrorists attacked us on 9-11 ?

Let's pay to defend & rebuild Ukraine so they can become EUroburghers & screw us on trade, while we continue to defend them.

I seem to recall a lot of Europeans helping us out in Afghanistan and even Iraq. Maybe we should appreciate their efforts more.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Good luck to the ICC in trying to get Putin arrested. Too bad they didn't do the same for Bush ~ would have served as good practice for executing international warrants.

Although it wasn’t the ICC (another war crimes court, the ICTY), it should be noted that Slobodan Milošević, the former murderous leader of Serbia, died in prison in The Hague.

One can hope that Putin faces a similar fate.

DocBarrister

There have been a few African leaders who went on trial for war crimes (esp from Liberia). Charles Taylor comes to mind immediately. But that doesn't seem to stop the wars that go on in that continent.

As for Putin, yeah, he may his faults but he's an angel compared to Bush who killed over a million innocents with the blessing of the right wing delusionals who thought they were doing the world a big favor.

No, Putin is not “an angel” compared to Bush.

I’m no defender of W, whom I consider one of the worst presidents in American history. Having said that, W did initiate PEPFAR, one of the most successful anti-HIV programs in history, which has saved tens of millions of lives.

Unless you don’t really give a sh*t about the people of Africa.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Good luck to the ICC in trying to get Putin arrested. Too bad they didn't do the same for Bush ~ would have served as good practice for executing international warrants.

Although it wasn’t the ICC (another war crimes court, the ICTY), it should be noted that Slobodan Milošević, the former murderous leader of Serbia, died in prison in The Hague.

One can hope that Putin faces a similar fate.

That'll be great. The largest nation on the planet, with the most nucs, becoming a failed state, flying apart in a scramble for power, with no logical expectation of what will result. ...& you think things can't get any worse than under Putin. Be careful what you wish for.

Janusz Bugajski, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, has warned that Western policymakers are gravely unprepared for an "impending" collapse of Russia.

"Instead of planning contingencies for external spillovers and capitalizing on Russia's de-imperialization, however, Western officials appear to be stuck in a bygone era, believing they can return to the post-Cold War status quo," he wrote in a January 12 op-ed for Politico..

As you read below, substitute USA for Russia & Washington DC for Moscow.

https://www.politico.eu/article/opinion ... tegration/

The benefits of Russia’s coming disintegration

by JANUSZ BUGAJSKI, JANUARY 12, 2023

The West made a grave mistake when it assumed the collapse of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism.

The rupture of the Russian Federation will be the third phase of imperial collapse after the unravelling of the Soviet bloc and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s

We are currently witnessing an unfolding revolution in global security that Western policy makers are clearly unprepared for — the impending collapse of the Russian Federation.

Instead of planning contingencies for external spillovers and capitalizing on Russia’s de-imperialization, however, Western officials appear to be stuck in a bygone era, believing they can return to the post-Cold War status quo, with some even offering Moscow security guarantees to keep the country intact.

But Russia is a failed state. It’s been unable to transform itself into a nation-state, a civic state or even a stable imperial state. It is a federation in name only, as the central government pursues a policy of ethnic and linguistic homogenization and denies any powers to the country’s 83 republics and regions. However, hyper-centralization has exposed the country’s multiple weaknesses, including a contracting economy squeezed by international sanctions, military defeats in Ukraine that reveal the incompetence and corruption of its ruling elite, and disquiet in numerous regions over their shrinking budgets.

Moscow is finally being exposed as a rapacious imperial center that’s exhausting its capacities to hold the country together. Yet, most Western leaders still fail to see the benefits of Russia’s disintegration.

The rupture of the Russian Federation will be the third phase of imperial collapse after the unravelling of the Soviet bloc and the disintegration of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. It’s driven by elite power struggles and intensifying rivalries between the central government and disaffected regions, which in some parts of the country, could lead to civil wars and border disputes. However, it will also embolden the emergence of new states and inter-regional federations, which will control their own resources and no longer send their men to die for Moscow’s empire.

As Moscow turns inward, its capacity for foreign aggression will diminish. And as a rump state, under intense international sanctions and shorn of its resource base in Siberia, it will have severely reduced capabilities to attack neighbors. From the Arctic to the Black Sea, NATO’s eastern front will become more secure; while Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will regain their occupied territories, and petition for European Union and NATO integration without fear of Russia’s reaction.

Countries in Central Asia will also feel increasingly liberated, and they will be able to turn to the West for energy, security and economic connections. China will be in a weaker position to expand its influence as it can no longer collaborate with Moscow, and new pro-Western states can emerge from within the Russian federation, enhancing stability in several regions of Europe and Eurasia.

Although nuclear weapons will remain a potential threat, Russia’s leaders won’t commit national suicide by launching them against the West. Instead, they will try to salvage their political futures and economic fortunes — as did the Soviet elite. And even if some emerging states acquire such weapons, they won’t have any reason to deploy them while seeking international recognition and economic assistance. Post-Russian states are instead likely to pursue nuclear disarmament — much like Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan after the Soviet demise.

The notion that Western leaders only help President Vladimir Putin by talking about Russia’s collapse is misleading. The Kremlin claims the West wants to destroy Russia regardless of actual policy, and denials from Washington and Brussels simply fuel Kremlin conspiracies.

Rather, a much more effective approach would be to clearly specify what the West supports. Openly backing pluralism, democracy, federalism, civil rights and the autonomy of its republics and regions can help embolden Russia’s citizens by demonstrating they aren’t globally isolated. They will also need access to the information that Moscow suppresses, especially when it comes to providing security, economic development and cultivating peaceful, productive relations with neighbors.

Even after the horrors of Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the justifications the country’s government leaders and advisers have given for genocide, Western officials’ hope that beneficial relations can be established with a post-Putin Kremlin, or that liberals can democratize the empire, is wishful thinking.

The West made a grave mistake when it assumed the collapse of Soviet communism meant the end of Russian imperialism. And as imperial states invariably collapse when they overreach and when centrifugal pressures are fueled by economic distress, regional resentments and national revivals, it must now avoid repeating that mistake — this time by wrongly presuming the current empire is permanent.

Russia is already a failed state. Its government is a criminal enterprise and Russia’s leader is a war criminal who has initiated the largest war in Europe since the days of Adolf Hitler.

Do you think the Russian Federation is worth preserving?

The Russian Federation is a rump malignancy … the remnant of two prior failed states, the Soviet Union and Russian Empire.

The Russian Federation is dangerous … nothing will change that. The long-term strategic goal should be to neutralize Russia politically and economically, while castrating its military.

DocBarrister

[Brooklyn]

No, Putin is not “an angel” compared to Bush.

I’m no defender of W, whom I consider one of the worst presidents in American history. Having said that, W did initiate PEPFAR, one of the most successful anti-HIV programs in history, which has saved tens of millions of lives.

Unless you don’t really give a sh*t about the people of Africa.

DocBarrister

Too bad he didn't spend that type of money to solve the Great Recession mess he created. While he may have saved a million African lives with our money, he killed a million Middle Easterners as well. But then, so many people in the USA don't give a flying sh*t about those people.

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-ke ... 2023-3?amp

[Typical Lax Dad]

https://www.indiewire.com/2023/03/steve ... 20295/amp/