FanLax Forum Poll
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Last edited by Matnum PI on Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Not casting stones - but someone help me understand the arguments for the G'town rankings?
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
I may have them 2 or 3 spots too high. Pressed for time and some recency bias. Two more weeks will be illuminating for a lot of teams.
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Chosen1 interested to hear why you left JHU out of the top 25?
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Georgetown should be in the Top 25 but just barely. And that's about it. Recognizing that teams with 2 wins (and not 3) are at a disadvantage within my system, I have them at #24. So when they get that third win they'll jump up some but... You can't ignore that after 5 games, they only have 2 wins. the only way for masondixonlax to justify their G'town #13 ranking is an eyeball test or some other silly human rationalization.
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
My feedback:
- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.
- You have some teams 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 slots too high or too low. I don't want to hone in on those teams. But I do want to say, you're off. Just not enough off for me to waste my bandwidth.
- The team you're most off about is... Princeton. #19? Really? You *cannot* justify that one. 2023, humans, 2023. they're more like #33...
- Not as bad as P'ton but you're 6-7 spots too high with Maryland, Army, G'town, Delaware, and Syracuse.
- Loyola, Richmond, and UMass are too low. For heaven's sake, respect their Ws (and Ls).
I've seen worse and, still, human psychology baffles me...
- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.
- You have some teams 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 slots too high or too low. I don't want to hone in on those teams. But I do want to say, you're off. Just not enough off for me to waste my bandwidth.
- The team you're most off about is... Princeton. #19? Really? You *cannot* justify that one. 2023, humans, 2023. they're more like #33...
- Not as bad as P'ton but you're 6-7 spots too high with Maryland, Army, G'town, Delaware, and Syracuse.
- Loyola, Richmond, and UMass are too low. For heaven's sake, respect their Ws (and Ls).
I've seen worse and, still, human psychology baffles me...
“I do not fear computers. I fear lack of them.” -Isaac Asimov
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
laf's power rankings (which uses only data from this season, no carryover from last year) have G'town at #20:
https://www.laxnumbers.com/ratings.php?y=2023&v=401
But this far down the list, any ranking is +/-5 at best ...
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Good call out, was an accidental omission, would have had them slotted around 12-13 and then bump everyone else back a spotJaXKy0521S wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 12:35 pm Chosen1 interested to hear why you left JHU out of the top 25?
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
which of richmond's wins are you most impressed by?FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:45 pm My feedback:
- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.
- You have some teams 1 to 2 to 3 to 4 slots too high or too low. I don't want to hone in on those teams. But I do want to say, you're off. Just not enough off for me to waste my bandwidth.
- The team you're most off about is... Princeton. #19? Really? You *cannot* justify that one. 2023, humans, 2023. they're more like #33...
- Not as bad as P'ton but you're 6-7 spots too high with Maryland, Army, G'town, Delaware, and Syracuse.
- Loyola, Richmond, and UMass are too low. For heaven's sake, respect their Ws (and Ls).
I've seen worse and, still, human psychology baffles me...
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
A certain lax announcer completely trashes FanLax
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
I considered this. Penn State clearly has the two best wins, but:FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:45 pm My feedback:
- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.
Penn State 4-1 Lafayette, Stony Brook, Yale, Penn, Cornell (Villanova)
2 Top 10, 1 Top 20 (1 loss)
vs.
Virginia 6-0 Michigan, Harvard, Ohio State, Richmond, Hopkins, Towson
2 Top 20, 4 Top 30 (0 losses)
vs.
Notre Dame 5-0 Marquette, Cleveland State, Georgetown, Maryland, Ohio State
1 top 10, 2 top 20 (0 losses)
It depends on if you more highly value the top wins vs overall quality of wins and the impact of a loss.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
I take it back. Richmond and Towson are probably not top 30. Harvard maybe. I might have gone Notre Dame / Penn State / Virginiarolldodge wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 2:38 pmI considered this. Penn State clearly has the two best wins, but:FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 1:45 pm My feedback:
- After each round of games, you humans need to reevaluate *every* team. What was a "great win" 2 weeks ago, may not be so great weeks later. In other words, look again at UVA's wins. They're no longer the best team in the nation *based on their Ws and Ls in 2023 and the quality of those Ws and Ls. #1 is Notre Dame, #2 is Penn State, and #3 is... UVA.
Penn State 4-1 Lafayette, Stony Brook, Yale, Penn, Cornell (Villanova)
2 Top 10, 1 Top 20 (1 loss)
vs.
Virginia 6-0 Michigan, Harvard, Ohio State, Richmond, Hopkins, Towson
2 Top 20, 4 Top 30 (0 losses)
vs.
Notre Dame 5-0 Marquette, Cleveland State, Georgetown, Maryland, Ohio State
1 top 10, 2 top 20 (0 losses)
It depends on if you more highly value the top wins vs overall quality of wins and the impact of a loss.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
There is certainly a blend of the potential you see and the win/loss record.
But the "quality of loss" and "quality of win" can become tangled up in circular logic. And I think that is what a lot of folks wrestle with. The UVA/ND/PennSt discussion hits the same dynamics as a discussion around Georgetown or Ohio State or Harvard.
I was tough on ND early in the season, because they hadn't "beaten anybody good" yet. Others saw the potential and ranked them very high.
Ohio State has one of the hardest schedules in D1 thus far. They are .500. Are they a better or worse team than 4-2 Merrimack? What about 5-1 UMBC?
Why did I drop Cornell so far, when I have been very high on them so far this year? Heck if I know, it just felt right.
Now do 2-3 Georgetown...
In three weeks we will know a lot more about this UVA team. I guess the same can be said about all the teams - but they don't have to face UMD, ND and Duke one after the other....
But the "quality of loss" and "quality of win" can become tangled up in circular logic. And I think that is what a lot of folks wrestle with. The UVA/ND/PennSt discussion hits the same dynamics as a discussion around Georgetown or Ohio State or Harvard.
I was tough on ND early in the season, because they hadn't "beaten anybody good" yet. Others saw the potential and ranked them very high.
Ohio State has one of the hardest schedules in D1 thus far. They are .500. Are they a better or worse team than 4-2 Merrimack? What about 5-1 UMBC?
Why did I drop Cornell so far, when I have been very high on them so far this year? Heck if I know, it just felt right.
Now do 2-3 Georgetown...
In three weeks we will know a lot more about this UVA team. I guess the same can be said about all the teams - but they don't have to face UMD, ND and Duke one after the other....
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
I have them at #21, they aren't taking D1 Mens Lacrosse by storm... but they're better than #32. In order, Towson, Mercer, Bucknell, Fairfield...
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Yes, yes, yes. 100%. And that is precisely what I detangle. You have A at #1 in the nation because they beat B, C, and D but I have B, C, and D ranked much lower than you do so I have A at #4. But why do you have have B, C, and D as higher ranked than I do? Who did they beat that you like? They beat E, F, and G who you have well ranked because they beat H, I, and J and it goes on and on. For every team, you have to ask "Why?" and then "yeah, but why?" and then etc.. And, inevitably, the "why"s result in chasing your tail, following a circle, an endless loop. So, at some point, you have to create an anchor, create a set of variables that are immovable and are not questioned with "why?". In this case, the anchor is... the March 13th FanLax Forum Rankings. Everybody gets their vote and then, in theory, everyone agrees that the cumulative Rankings are "the rankings" we all agree on. That is our "anchor ranking". Now, from that anchor ranking, we can create a relatively objective, accurate ranking. Without this "anchor ranking", Hoo, as you're saying, logically, rationally, we'll always be chasing our tails. With the anchor, I'm able to do what I do. 3 Best Wins, 3 Worst Losses.
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
so 1 and 5 towson? that's the sell? you're probably aware, they're @ 53 rpi. and richmond's at 42. and the other 3 are 60, 63 and 67.FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:01 pmI have them at #21, they aren't taking D1 Mens Lacrosse by storm... but they're better than #32. In order, Towson, Mercer, Bucknell, Fairfield...
the combined record of opponents for their 4 wins is 5 and 21, or 5 and 17 excluding those games. that's... not good. & the best win of the 5 is... mt st mary's??? and the spiders have gotten absolutely hammered twice. they (and their opponents) will have chances to get better wins, but maybe computers have flaws like humans do.
Re: FanLax Forum Poll
But still based on a variety of pollster weightings regarding: (a) eye-test -vs- (b) record / head-to-head-to-head-to-head...FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:18 pm That is our "anchor ranking". Now, from that anchor ranking, we can create a relatively objective, accurate ranking. Without this "anchor ranking", Hoo, as you're saying, logically, rationally, we'll always be chasing our tails. With the anchor, I'm able to do what I do. 3 Best Wins, 3 Worst Losses.
STILL somewhere back in the day....
...and waiting/hoping for a tinfoil hat emoji......
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Tigers are the best 1 and 5 team out there,wgdsr wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:27 pmso 1 and 5 towson? that's the sell? you're probably aware, they're @ 53 rpi. and richmond's at 42. and the other 3 are 60, 63 and 67.FanLax Computer wrote: ↑Mon Mar 13, 2023 3:01 pmI have them at #21, they aren't taking D1 Mens Lacrosse by storm... but they're better than #32. In order, Towson, Mercer, Bucknell, Fairfield...
the combined record of opponents for their 4 wins is 5 and 21, or 5 and 17 excluding those games. that's... not good. & the best win of the 5 is... mt st mary's??? and the spiders have gotten absolutely hammered twice. they (and their opponents) will have chances to get better wins, but maybe computers have flaws like humans do.
just behind 2 and 4 Vermont,
and 1 and 4 Albany
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
The only flaws that I have are via bad programming. i.e. The flaws are the programmers fault, not mine. A calculator isn't flawed. It's perfect. Though, as you're speaking to, an RPI is flawed. It looks at the overall SOS, the overall records, etc. I don't do that. I look at each match-up individually, 1 game at a time.
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Re: FanLax Forum Poll
Yes. That is correct. I could (and have) used the rankings with the human error (like your describing) just to start the season and then ignored the humans for the rest of the season and... Humans do *not* like this. Without the human error, humans are lost. This may be verging into the realm of philosophy, psychology, and deeper sciences but... Humans need irrationality.
“I do not fear computers. I fear lack of them.” -Isaac Asimov