Johns Hopkins 2023

[Farfromgeneva]

Syracuse, Navy, and Delaware … all 3 in just 9 days.

Obviously a crazy schedule, but all winnable games.

If Hopkins wants a “successful” season, they will need to win at least 2 of those 3. Sweep all 3 and I think they have a good shot at making the tournament.

DocBarrister

Navy is lock of the remaining season for you. Other two harder to say but should be able to split those or better.

Thanks, Ffg. Not sure any game at Navy is a lock for Hopkins (we have a “mixed” history there), but I hope you’re right.

DocBarrister

Just make sure Angelus is getting the rock often. He is on my son and my fantasy team and he won us last weeks round with that 8pt effort, never thought I’d be rooting for Hop but life is non linear..

[Finster]

Last year a 38% save percentage would send this group into a fit of rage...now it's acceptable???

he made enough saves, especially early. This game was lost with turnovers, offensive inefficiency to start and gbs.

Cuse nation has already written saturday off as a win. We'll see if that's the case.

Syracuse game is pretty close to must-win … maybe not quite, but pretty close.

DocBarrister

I would think that game would leave Hop fans with a lot of optimism, played a good game and hung with a darn good and deep Virginia team.
Yup, Doc, the Hop-Cuse game is a big one for both teams. Not big as it was in past years but big in morale for both team and fans I think. A W over the big rival that has a Pietramala v Gait (a sight to behold), and long history of being seen as the standard of lacrosse is a pretty big deal. Huge game in the Dome for these two teams.
Weather? No worries.

Syracuse is such a wild card. When Mark is on his game (which seems like always), the Orange are almost unbeatable. Off-ball D will be crucial for both teams. Blue Jays need to win their share of FOs and gbs to come away with a victory. None of that is Einsteinian analysis … Blue Jays need a strong performance with few mistakes to pull off the win.

DocBarrister

Jays will be a heavy favorite to win, the likely faceoff discrepancy will be very difficult for SU to overcome.

Oh no you don’t … you can’t jinx us that easily.

DocBarrister

LOL, I think SU matches up fairly well but not at FOGO which I think will be a major issue on Saturday and why I think Hop would be favored.

?????

Hopkins just LOST 70% to UVA at Faceoff, which is where they lost the game. Meaning they won only 30%. Which isn’t good.

You think Faceoff is what favors them against Syracuse?

[flalax22]

Last year a 38% save percentage would send this group into a fit of rage...now it's acceptable???

he made enough saves, especially early. This game was lost with turnovers, offensive inefficiency to start and gbs.

Cuse nation has already written saturday off as a win. We'll see if that's the case.

Syracuse game is pretty close to must-win … maybe not quite, but pretty close.

DocBarrister

I would think that game would leave Hop fans with a lot of optimism, played a good game and hung with a darn good and deep Virginia team.
Yup, Doc, the Hop-Cuse game is a big one for both teams. Not big as it was in past years but big in morale for both team and fans I think. A W over the big rival that has a Pietramala v Gait (a sight to behold), and long history of being seen as the standard of lacrosse is a pretty big deal. Huge game in the Dome for these two teams.
Weather? No worries.

Syracuse is such a wild card. When Mark is on his game (which seems like always), the Orange are almost unbeatable. Off-ball D will be crucial for both teams. Blue Jays need to win their share of FOs and gbs to come away with a victory. None of that is Einsteinian analysis … Blue Jays need a strong performance with few mistakes to pull off the win.

DocBarrister

Jays will be a heavy favorite to win, the likely faceoff discrepancy will be very difficult for SU to overcome.

Oh no you don’t … you can’t jinx us that easily.

DocBarrister

LOL, I think SU matches up fairly well but not at FOGO which I think will be a major issue on Saturday and why I think Hop would be favored.

?????

Hopkins just LOST 70% to UVA at Faceoff, which is where they lost the game. Meaning they won only 30%. Which isn’t good.

You think Faceoff is what favors them against Syracuse?

Facing off success or lack of it was a contributing factor but not why they lost the game. They lost because they were outmatched in size and skill. Did you watch the game? Do the Jays move the ball like Virginia? No they don’t. They ran into a better team that has better talent and a deeper pool of talent. Despite that they gave one hell of an effort which bodes well for the direction of the program.

[51percentcorn]

Random Thoughts
- Hate moral victories but that is kind of what it was
- Aside from avoiding the penalty box - except for that incredibly stupid and unnecessary 2 man down gift - Hopkins did little in this game of what they had to do to win. The one other thing they did well was 3 players shot the lights out coming up with 9 of the 13 goals on 14 shots. That's almost 70% - which you can't depend on all the time.
- They needed face-offs - LaSalla was dominant
- They needed groundballs - They got whipped almost 2 to 1
- Nominally they were better than average on turnovers with 14 but some turnovers are worse than others and they had 10 in the first half and some of those were absolute backbreakers
- They needed more shots - they were under their season average with 31. If Nunes had been really on or those 3 players slightly off - the 1st quarter horror show could have continued

Grimes Peshko Bauer Melendez and Stuart Phillips all have more turnovers than goals. That can not happen.

- What on God's green earth does the fact the Stuart Phillips has 4 turnovers and 3 goals have to do with anything? He hasn't played in two games. Grimes? had 0 turnovers last night - his problem along with Peshko and Melendez is they don't shoot - more on Melendez later - but Grimes and Melendez are barely shooting 4 times a game - Peshko 3 times a game. If you shoot 45 times in 15 games you have to shoot 33% from the midfield just to get to 15 goals. That's what is so revelationary about Collison (13 goals on 29 shots) - and where would this team be without him? FYI - last year Epstein/Angelus and DeSimone all had more turnovers than goals. I'm not saying that's a great stat to have more turnovers than goals but BBQ'ing Bauer for essentially 1 turnover a game when he handles the ball alot is ridiculous (Bauer is also only taking about 3 shots per game)
- Which brings us to the #1 problem IMHO - the problem that has plagued the team for some time now and we were hopeful - especially after the Georgetown game - that Melendez could help address. Hopkins so desperately needs an attackman that can freak the defense out through his ability to go get his own AND set up teammates. You look at the stats and you would say Shellenberger was really quiet and you would take 0 goals and 3 assists all day every day - but any time he had the ball in his stick Hopkins - and most everybody else - starts getting the shimmy shakes and sliding all over the place and that's how ultimately Dickson/McIntosh/Shutz shoot 16 for 28. The Hopkins attack generated 11 shots and Degnon had to go 3 for 4 to get to 5 goals for the unit. Angelus is quick, unselfish, exceptional lacrosse IQ but he's producing a goal a game. Degnon has been on fire the last two games but for the most part needs time and room and someone else to do the dirty work. Melendez has been careful - not even 2 points per game - and just 23 shots. Krampf has produced exceptionally well in 2 games - more than you would ever think at the beginning of the season - but temper the enthusiasm just a slight notch and realize that UVA for example short sticked him the entire time and said to themselves OK who do I really care about stopping?

Bottom line - the starting attack for Johns Hopkins has generated 81 shots and 26 goals in 7 games and over half of those goals are Degnon (usually from range) - Spallina for example is 7.5 shots per game by himself. Cormier was averaging 8 shots per game - Dickson almost 7. You can't survive in this shot clock day and age generating 11 shots from your entire attack and 31 overall. Yes those stats and averages have been affected by the various concussions and missed time but the point is still there.

You might recall last year's game against Syracuse:
Shots Syracuse 54 Hopkins 29
Turnovers Syracuse 14 Hopkins 21
Face-offs Syracuse 14 Hopkins 7
Ground Balls Syracuse 38 Hopkins 27
Hopkins had 8 failed Clears

How in the world did Hopkins win that game? Well Syracuse shot 14% 7 for 54. They probably hit the ambulance by the Cordish Center more than the goal with an SOG% around 40% and the much maligned Josh Kirson chipped in with a save percentage of 67%. Dordevic was 3 for 15 which means the rest of the team was 4 for 39. I am pretty sure of one thing - that is not going to happen on Saturday - Orange Shot % is 33% and SOG is 65%. Their weakness has been the amount of shots generated by their opponents even though the opponents are only shooting 24% - so anyone thinking this is walk in the park because we will win more face-offs is nuts. Syracuse will be desperate - Syracuse will be focused for Petro and the embarrassment of last year's game. Syracuse has 2 more days rest. Because of the fame of the rivalry - probably a bigger crowd - this is a big mountain to climb not a sure thing to have slip away.

[MDlaxfan76]

I have to pat myself on the back for not moving once the Gilman contingent settled into the section where I was sitting. Tough crowd but I wasn’t about to give up a spot in the top row on the center line.

"tough crowd"...

[MDlaxfan76]

credit to espn on the rare W. the halftime interview was really really good and it was great to have harrison in there. I don't know how carc missed narewskis debut or why he couldn't breakdown the dunn/callahan/narewski mixture.

we had 2 ssdms score today.

also for all the hopkins is too violent and gross and urban and disgusting for my kid to attend crowd those Gilman youngsters looked safe, happy, a bit tired and way too into their phones they kept checking.

Gilman kids have little to do with Baltimore’s image.

He said Hopkins

[OCanada]

He said Gilman kids looked safe in contrast to the violent, gross and urban image of the City etc for kids to go to Hopkins. It is as irrelevant and meaningless as most strawmen and is not reflective of the situation in the City

Hopkins is so safe they are prepared to launch a police force. Crime is a problem around Hopkins institutions and Charles Village that has worsened over the years. That had been true of the City too with the flight of the middle class after the Schmoke election.

[molo]

For someone who went to a school that considered Gilman an arch rival, it was indeed a tough crowd. There was a time when a Hopkins-UVA game would be filled with MIAA grads. Not so much anymore. Years ago UVA was heavily Baltimore and LI. On the present team, one ssdm, the fourth attackman, and the background goalie, who is presumably redshirting, are from the MIAA, and the face-off man is from LI. The goalie is from Texas, the close d hails from Texas, California, and Minnesota. The best middies are from Canada, CT, and PA. The attack is from Canada, replaced by California for the time being, CT, and Virginia. The times they are achangin’.

[DMac]

51percentcorn wrote
You might recall last year's game against Syracuse:
Shots Syracuse 54 Hopkins 29
Turnovers Syracuse 14 Hopkins 21
Face-offs Syracuse 14 Hopkins 7
Ground Balls Syracuse 38 Hopkins 27
Hopkins had 8 failed Clears

How in the world did Hopkins win that game? Well Syracuse shot 14% 7 for 54. They probably hit the ambulance by the Cordish Center more than the goal with an SOG% around 40% and the much maligned Josh Kirson chipped in with a save percentage of 67%. Dordevic was 3 for 15 which means the rest of the team was 4 for 39

Yup, there were two players who took 28 shots between them, one fewer than the entire Hop team. Ten of those shots were on cage, four went in, no assists from either shooter. Nope, not a safe place to park the ambulance when the 2022 Cuse team was on the field.

[JeremyCuse]

Last year a 38% save percentage would send this group into a fit of rage...now it's acceptable???

he made enough saves, especially early. This game was lost with turnovers, offensive inefficiency to start and gbs.

Cuse nation has already written saturday off as a win. We'll see if that's the case.

Syracuse game is pretty close to must-win … maybe not quite, but pretty close.

DocBarrister

I would think that game would leave Hop fans with a lot of optimism, played a good game and hung with a darn good and deep Virginia team.
Yup, Doc, the Hop-Cuse game is a big one for both teams. Not big as it was in past years but big in morale for both team and fans I think. A W over the big rival that has a Pietramala v Gait (a sight to behold), and long history of being seen as the standard of lacrosse is a pretty big deal. Huge game in the Dome for these two teams.
Weather? No worries.

Syracuse is such a wild card. When Mark is on his game (which seems like always), the Orange are almost unbeatable. Off-ball D will be crucial for both teams. Blue Jays need to win their share of FOs and gbs to come away with a victory. None of that is Einsteinian analysis … Blue Jays need a strong performance with few mistakes to pull off the win.

DocBarrister

Jays will be a heavy favorite to win, the likely faceoff discrepancy will be very difficult for SU to overcome.

Oh no you don’t … you can’t jinx us that easily.

DocBarrister

LOL, I think SU matches up fairly well but not at FOGO which I think will be a major issue on Saturday and why I think Hop would be favored.

?????

Hopkins just LOST 70% to UVA at Faceoff, which is where they lost the game. Meaning they won only 30%. Which isn’t good.

You think Faceoff is what favors them against Syracuse?

Hop won 30% against arguably the top FOGO in the country at worst #2. Look at their Faceoff % against every other team besides UVA. Syracuse has struggled mightily at the X save for one game ( I know I have watched them all). Hop is going to have a significant advantage at the X on Saturday on paper. Maybe SU features a new guy or has some trick up their sleeve but if not Hop is likely to win 60%+.

[rolldodge]

Syracuse is such a wild card. When Mark is on his game (which seems like always), the Orange are almost unbeatable.

DocBarrister

What you talking about, Willis? He had 27 saves and 12 pipes against Duke and they .... lost. 18 saves against Maryland and they....lost. 17 saves against UNC and they...lost.

[44WeWantMore]

27 saves! The Jays will be lucky to get 27 shots on goal.

[Finster]

Last year a 38% save percentage would send this group into a fit of rage...now it's acceptable???

he made enough saves, especially early. This game was lost with turnovers, offensive inefficiency to start and gbs.

Cuse nation has already written saturday off as a win. We'll see if that's the case.

Syracuse game is pretty close to must-win … maybe not quite, but pretty close.

DocBarrister

I would think that game would leave Hop fans with a lot of optimism, played a good game and hung with a darn good and deep Virginia team.
Yup, Doc, the Hop-Cuse game is a big one for both teams. Not big as it was in past years but big in morale for both team and fans I think. A W over the big rival that has a Pietramala v Gait (a sight to behold), and long history of being seen as the standard of lacrosse is a pretty big deal. Huge game in the Dome for these two teams.
Weather? No worries.

Syracuse is such a wild card. When Mark is on his game (which seems like always), the Orange are almost unbeatable. Off-ball D will be crucial for both teams. Blue Jays need to win their share of FOs and gbs to come away with a victory. None of that is Einsteinian analysis … Blue Jays need a strong performance with few mistakes to pull off the win.

DocBarrister

Jays will be a heavy favorite to win, the likely faceoff discrepancy will be very difficult for SU to overcome.

Oh no you don’t … you can’t jinx us that easily.

DocBarrister

LOL, I think SU matches up fairly well but not at FOGO which I think will be a major issue on Saturday and why I think Hop would be favored.

?????

Hopkins just LOST 70% to UVA at Faceoff, which is where they lost the game. Meaning they won only 30%. Which isn’t good.

You think Faceoff is what favors them against Syracuse?

Hop won 30% against arguably the top FOGO in the country at worst #2. Look at their Faceoff % against every other team besides UVA. Syracuse has struggled mightily at the X save for one game ( I know I have watched them all). Hop is going to have a significant advantage at the X on Saturday on paper. Maybe SU features a new guy or has some trick up their sleeve but if not Hop is likely to win 60%+.

I don’t think Hop has a very good Faceoff group. If Narewski was healthy, they might be good. But Syracuse won’t lose to Hopkins at the dot. I like Syracuse’s chances in this game, actually.

Also, ftr, before yesterday, Lasalla was like #19 in the nation for FO win %. The kid from Dartmouth is crushing the field.

[wgdsr]

For someone who went to a school that considered Gilman an arch rival, it was indeed a tough crowd. There was a time when a Hopkins-UVA game would be filled with MIAA grads. Not so much anymore. Years ago UVA was heavily Baltimore and LI. On the present team, one ssdm, the fourth attackman, and the background goalie, who is presumably redshirting, are from the MIAA, and the face-off man is from LI. The goalie is from Texas, the close d hails from Texas, California, and Minnesota. The best middies are from Canada, CT, and PA. The attack is from Canada, replaced by California for the time being, CT, and Virginia. The times they are achangin’.

they changed 15-20 years ago for uva. they have still gotten v good players out of the miaa (and long island), but they have made up minorities of the team, as recruiting has focused on players, not zip codes.

[HopFan16]

- Which brings us to the #1 problem IMHO - the problem that has plagued the team for some time now and we were hopeful - especially after the Georgetown game - that Melendez could help address. Hopkins so desperately needs an attackman that can freak the defense out through his ability to go get his own AND set up teammates. You look at the stats and you would say Shellenberger was really quiet and you would take 0 goals and 3 assists all day every day - but any time he had the ball in his stick Hopkins - and most everybody else - starts getting the shimmy shakes and sliding all over the place and that's how ultimately Dickson/McIntosh/Shutz shoot 16 for 28.

For what it's worth, Virginia put who I believe is their best defenseman on Melendez and he stuck to him like glue and the guy has like a 9-foot wingspan. This was never going to be a game where Russell would be able to spook the D into sliding unless we made a concerted effort to switch that matchup.

Maybe they should have, but the offense was not an issue yesterday IMO. What they did worked pretty well. If you put 13 on the board at home you have a chance to win. I believe heading into the game PM was something like 10-1 at Hopkins in games in which we scored 11+. Those 13 goals were all the more impressive when you consider the faceoff and groundball disparity. Once they settled in I thought the offense moved the ball well and they did a decent job of identifying the matchups they could exploit. And, as you mentioned, they shot well. Nunes didn't have his best day especially in the 2nd/3rd quarters but a bunch of those shots were not easy saves. Degnon with time and room from 10 yards, turn and rake.

I think we are closely approaching the point where we need to put Collison in a Sam Handley-esque role where he's nominally a "midfielder" in that he comes in through the box and primarily dodges from up top but also rarely if ever leaves the field. You don't want to run him into the ground so you've got to be careful and make sure it doesn't create issues but if he's up for it, run him out there basically every possession with 2 other midfielders and rotate who those 2 guys are. It's pretty clear the kid is a truly special talent. You can put a shortie or a pole on him and it doesn't seem to matter. He's getting to his spot and shooting with power and accuracy and when he doesn't, he's at least drawing a slide.

[10stone5]

I counted 3 who UVA put on Collison,
Zinn of course, another short stick and an LSM,
he didn’t seem to have a problem with any of them.

[MDlaxfan76]

For someone who went to a school that considered Gilman an arch rival, it was indeed a tough crowd. There was a time when a Hopkins-UVA game would be filled with MIAA grads. Not so much anymore. Years ago UVA was heavily Baltimore and LI. On the present team, one ssdm, the fourth attackman, and the background goalie, who is presumably redshirting, are from the MIAA, and the face-off man is from LI. The goalie is from Texas, the close d hails from Texas, California, and Minnesota. The best middies are from Canada, CT, and PA. The attack is from Canada, replaced by California for the time being, CT, and Virginia. The times they are achangin’.

I understood the reference.

Still a bunch of MIAA on those two teams, but more importantly, this was a weeknight game in early March...were there a bunch of honeys from the local girls schools in attendance? I'm doubting that as well...get this game back to a weekend, with the sun out, and the stands will be full of youngsters and high schoolers again....some watching the game, some watching each other...

Same for Hopkins Maryland, Hopkins UNC...great games for seeing the sport played at its highest level, with lots of area alums.

But yes, team composition is hugely more diverse...a great thing in the overall, but understand the point about more Baltimore (and Island) kids in yesteryear.

[MDlaxfan76]

He said Gilman kids looked safe in contrast to the violent, gross and urban image of the City etc for kids to go to Hopkins. It is as irrelevant and meaningless as most strawmen and is not reflective of the situation in the City

Hopkins is so safe they are prepared to launch a police force. Crime is a problem around Hopkins institutions and Charles Village that has worsened over the years. That had been true of the City too with the flight of the middle class after the Schmoke election.

Most schools have their own police force, heck we have one in Hanover NH, not exactly the crime capital of the country. The challenge Hopkins has is that they want to patrol more than the actual campus, because a significant portion of the buildings they either own or kids live in aren't on campus proper. Meaning they're going to be patrolling areas in which non-Hopkins people live, work, shop, drive through etc.

I think they should be allowed to do so, and manage that relationship carefully in cooperation with the City. Some of the students and faculty, however, are concerned that the policing would be heavy handed and discriminatory, so they're trying to figure it out. I think they will.

It would be fiscally smart for the City to cooperate with such an effort. But there's politics around that as well.

But it's quite ridiculous to say that Hopkins local environment close to campus is more dangerous than say Yale's. Or Harvard's or Penn's.

Urban campus, crime is an everlasting problem.

And while you say crime is up, the area has rather dramatically been improved physically over the last two decades, with more to come.

I just think it's a specious argument feeding a negative narrative...from Hop people, I don't understand why other than as an excuse. From competitors, they just want those recruits to read this stuff...

[jhu06]

One of the commenters or carc said that the uva fogo was excellent at knowing where his wings were and getting them the ball off the faceoff. He did that superbly yesterday. I thought our fogos competed very well and it's a question of who you start and how you build chemistry. Dare I say we have depth in goal/ssdm/fogo.

what is the argument against starting krampf?

[primitiveskills]

Last year a 38% save percentage would send this group into a fit of rage...now it's acceptable???

he made enough saves, especially early. This game was lost with turnovers, offensive inefficiency to start and gbs.

Cuse nation has already written saturday off as a win. We'll see if that's the case.

Syracuse game is pretty close to must-win … maybe not quite, but pretty close.

DocBarrister

I would think that game would leave Hop fans with a lot of optimism, played a good game and hung with a darn good and deep Virginia team.
Yup, Doc, the Hop-Cuse game is a big one for both teams. Not big as it was in past years but big in morale for both team and fans I think. A W over the big rival that has a Pietramala v Gait (a sight to behold), and long history of being seen as the standard of lacrosse is a pretty big deal. Huge game in the Dome for these two teams.
Weather? No worries.

Syracuse is such a wild card. When Mark is on his game (which seems like always), the Orange are almost unbeatable. Off-ball D will be crucial for both teams. Blue Jays need to win their share of FOs and gbs to come away with a victory. None of that is Einsteinian analysis … Blue Jays need a strong performance with few mistakes to pull off the win.

DocBarrister

Jays will be a heavy favorite to win, the likely faceoff discrepancy will be very difficult for SU to overcome.

Oh no you don’t … you can’t jinx us that easily.

DocBarrister

LOL, I think SU matches up fairly well but not at FOGO which I think will be a major issue on Saturday and why I think Hop would be favored.

?????

Hopkins just LOST 70% to UVA at Faceoff, which is where they lost the game. Meaning they won only 30%. Which isn’t good.

You think Faceoff is what favors them against Syracuse?

Hop won 30% against arguably the top FOGO in the country at worst #2. Look at their Faceoff % against every other team besides UVA. Syracuse has struggled mightily at the X save for one game ( I know I have watched them all). Hop is going to have a significant advantage at the X on Saturday on paper. Maybe SU features a new guy or has some trick up their sleeve but if not Hop is likely to win 60%+.

I don’t think Hop has a very good Faceoff group. If Narewski was healthy, they might be good. But Syracuse won’t lose to Hopkins at the dot. I like Syracuse’s chances in this game, actually.

Also, ftr, before yesterday, Lasalla was like #19 in the nation for FO win %. The kid from Dartmouth is crushing the field.

That "not very good group" includes a guy who just destroyed the FO guy everyone in the country was already slotting into an AA team (Cole). So there's that. Predicting specific FO outcomes beforehand is hard. It's so dependent on individual match ups/ strengths/ moves/ counters. We'll see how it goes on Saturday.