Johns Hopkins 2023

[Finster]

Should we move on to talking about Tuesday's game,

Must prevent their dizzying runs and can't let LaSalla score - make them work for everything. Their Shots on Goal per game average is not far off from Hopkins Shot average (30 to 36) so I think that tells you Marcille better get in the way of anywhere from 14-18. It's a really tall order.

I would speculate that Hop surprises & plays this a lot tougher than some on here might suspect. I would also point out that UR tried to prevent Lasalla from going to the goal and the result was wing line mates, Chizmar and Sallade having big days on offense. There are no clear answers.. yet.....to stopping Virginia's offense. Shut off Shellenberger and there are 5 other guys who can score a hat trick or more on you. There is a lot of lacrosse left to play and the biggest challenges and best teams lie ahead for Virginia. So far, this offense appears to be Virginia's best since their undefeated 2006 team.

Chemotti did something as a coach which drives me insane, which is never mixing things up.

By sending both Richmond wings toward the Richmond end at the whistle, cutting off Lasalla sure, of course the other two UVA wings get to have a field day.

A coach should instead (in effect) call audibles, mixing up which wing drops back and which sprints to the Faceoff scrum. If Lasalla knows both the opponent wings are predictably headed south at the whistle, he can comfortably clamp and pitch to either of his own wings. If Lasalla is unsure who’s coming versus who’s dropping back, he’s not going to have it nearly as easily.

THINK!!!!!

[HopFan16]

The Jays have been pretty good at cutting off opponents' transition opportunities, especially after a faceoff. Perhaps this is misguided but I'm a lot more concerned about Shellenberger, Dickson, and Cormier racking up points than I am LaSalla. Petey may get one or two, but I doubt him scoring is going to be the difference in the game. If he has a hat trick and we lose by 3, you just have to tip your hat.

This is conjecture but I suspect that whenever Narewski does return, it's going to be slow and steady, ideally as the second or third option before he shows he's ready for a bigger workload. They're not going to throw him out there against Petey and say sink or swim. They need to be careful with him given the nature of his injuries. As 51 has alluded, we're lucky that he's going to play at all. Dunn and Callahan are the 1-2 punch and then anything we get out of Narewski this season will be a bonus IMO. I hope he's able to contribute down the stretch because he's been through a lot and has rehabbed his ass off to be able to give it one more go.

[51percentcorn]

Do they start Narewski for this game, essentially fresh, to maybe get an edge up on FOs, or hold him out until the SU game?
I can see an argument either way on this. He's definitely chomping at the bit to get in there.
I think the Jays need to win at the X to have a realistic chance in this one.

Narewski tore his patellar tendon - maybe more than once. The kid is as tough as they come. The expectations that he will ride in on his white horse and dramatically affect a game at this point is likely unrealistic. You'll notice he was under 50% last year and couldn't answer the bell for the start of the season. That tells you the injury was/is serious. He is doing everything he can I am told to try and play. I think it is fair to say size/strength were always hallmarks of his play but fleetness of foot was probably not the highest grade he receives. Chasing LaSalla around would be a huge ask - but maybe he could tie him up and make it more of a scrum but again it's a mountainous ask. I don't disagree that face-offs are critical - though I seem to remember somebody advising this forum that ground balls and face-offs were over-rated. While it's not necessarily the most fun to be the fan of the team that will hold the ball as much as possible - minimizing their possessions has to be a component of any strategy. Winning face-offs can help you chew 65-70 seconds and blunt their runs.

I will be disappointed if it's 6-0 and 10-1 or something resembling that once again. A decent probability scenario is a plucky focused bunch keeps it reasonably close for a while but talent and maybe the difference in the Saturday games takes effect on the legs and the Hoos pull away. Shellenberger/Cormier and Dickson scored 7 of UVA's first half goals last year and then Cormier scored 3 of the next 5 in the 3rd. They finished with 13 points in that game. That's below the average for this year but of course UVA had Moore who chipped in with 4 or 5 points. LaSalla scored last year as did Kastner. Not a single penalty was whistled last time so all 19 goals were even strength. Yikes.

[51percentcorn]

The Jays have been pretty good at cutting off opponents' transition opportunities, especially after a faceoff. Perhaps this is misguided but I'm a lot more concerned about Shellenberger, Dickson, and Cormier racking up points than I am LaSalla. Petey may get one or two, but I doubt him scoring is going to be the difference in the game. If he has a hat trick and we lose by 3, you just have to tip your hat.

Of course this is true but the problem with LaSalla scoring is that it could ignite or be part of a run. One of the attackmen scores for UVA - LaSalla scores 10 seconds later and then you are faced with the real possibility of him winning another and you've got to defend them again. Must make them work for everything and figure out a way to even possessions. If they get to their averages of 50+ Shots and 30+ SOGs - in what universe does Hopkins win that game? It's pretty easy math - UVA is putting 31 shots on cage - they are averaging 21 goals a game so goalies are averaging 10 saves a game. So even if Marcille improves that save number by 50% - they are still putting up 16 on the new scoreboard. You almost HAVE to have the combo platter - fewer possessions for them so fewer shots and a goalie standing on his head.

[flalax22]

Quint was correct about one thing - they do need to paint the goal mouth better - can't tell where it is. Jays finally got a goal mouth call.

If you had told me Hopkins would only get 31 shots, turn the ball over 21 times, go to the penalty box 6 times - at least twice full time, fall apart in clearing in the 4th quarter playing against a relatively high scoring team with a top face-off man I would have been pretty confident CBB would not be handing out bananas. Dunn/Marcille outplaying his counterpart/Hopkins scrapping out a few more possessions with ground balls and almost 50% shooting were the keys.

Not sustainable however - especially against a team that has put up a mind boggling 84 goals in 4 games - and Michigan/Harvard/Ohio State/Richmond is not exactly cupcake central. They got to play 39 guys last night - Hopkins was 24 and 1 of those 24 was a single face-off attempt by Callahan. Speaking of the roster has Daniels implemented some type of rolling suspension I don't know about? Phillips now down? No English who looked like he had a nice burst last game? Still no McDermott? This is where this schedule is going to bite you in the butt.

BIG had a nice day yesterday even with Maryland letting one get away. Who had Penn State outscoring Penn 6-0 in the 4th? Handley BTW is shooting 15% and has 11 turnovers.

Paint the crease while they are at it

carson brown and ruddy have been better this year than szulak.

Either you or I need glasses because we are watching the same thing but seeing vastly different things. Ruddy was serviceable at best. The other two belong on the field regularly.

[flalax22]

watching the cuse defense today was like seeing an ex girlfriend and remembering all the reasons you broke up with her.

So it escaped your attention that your fancy new D coordinator gave up the same exact number of goals this weekend?

Duke hit 12 pipes and Syracuse's goalie made an almost equally unfathomable 27 stops. I watched the game and Duke created good looks at will. Cuse is lucky they didn't give up 25.

Not sure what the "fancy new D coordinator" dig is all about given Hopkins' defense has improved in every metric imaginable under his fancy tutelage. There are all kinds of fancy stats like adjusted defensive efficiency that show how much the defense has improved since the fancy coordinator took over but here's a very simple one for you: Through 6 games in 2020 Hop gave up 13.2 goals per game. Through 6 games this year they're giving up 10.8.

Here's defensive efficiency for what it's worth (lower is better):
2020: 31.4% (50th in D1)
2021: 29.4% (33rd)
2022: 27.5% (18th)
2023: 24.6% (18th)

Notice anything?

I’ve also noticed we have a lot better players back there now.

[flalax22]

I’m not really expecting anything out of Narewski. As previously mentioned he had a significant injury. I’d actually be surprised if he even takes a draw this year. I know he’s back to being dressed but I don’t think he’s anywhere near close to being ready to compete at 100%

[Gatsby]

congrats to hopkins on the dub, and glad they're getting guys back. makes for a bigger game this week, hope it's a good one.

I hope it's not 10-0 out of the gate or whatever like last year - there should be no moral victories in that locker room but aside from being at home it's hard to see Hopkins with a bunch of advantages. UVA does present a very conspicuous set of problems that you have to solve:
- Their face-off man - as good as anyone - is averaging 60% and 1.5 goals per game. If he was on Hopkins roster he would be tied for 5th in goals. A really tall order for Dunn who took 32 face-offs yesterday (LaSalla took 26). Callahan will likely HAVE to contribute as I equate Narewski to Cage from Pet Semetary - he might come back but he also probably will not be like he was before. That kids has battled for sure.
- They are close to 70% on EMO - 6 trips to the box like yesterday with some full time could mean 4-6-8 goals goals - take your pick
- It seems like a team where you have to take away - or try - the attack to whatever degree you can. Cormier/Dickson and Shellenberger have 40 of the 84 goals. You can't play them straight up and think you'll be successful. Cormier with 5/Dickson with 4 and Shellenberger with 2-3 while passing out 5 helpers is how you get boat raced. I would give someone like Carson Brown a very simple assignment - you follow Cormier everywhere - you don't slide - you don't do anything but stay in front of him. If the Virginia middies have a field day - shake their hand at the end of the game but you probably can't play an attack averaging over 16 - I repeat 16 - points per game with a standard approach.
- Oh their defense has a couple monsters with wingspans like condors

JHU will have another advantage against UVA. Both teams just played on Saturday. Jays' contest started six hours earlier so they will have fresher legs while the Hoos will be dragging by the second half.

As some have pointed out earlier, this is enough to make you lose games like UNC, and lose championships on Memorial Day because of the deficit of 2-3 recovery hours in that case...

[Finster]

congrats to hopkins on the dub, and glad they're getting guys back. makes for a bigger game this week, hope it's a good one.

I hope it's not 10-0 out of the gate or whatever like last year - there should be no moral victories in that locker room but aside from being at home it's hard to see Hopkins with a bunch of advantages. UVA does present a very conspicuous set of problems that you have to solve:
- Their face-off man - as good as anyone - is averaging 60% and 1.5 goals per game. If he was on Hopkins roster he would be tied for 5th in goals. A really tall order for Dunn who took 32 face-offs yesterday (LaSalla took 26). Callahan will likely HAVE to contribute as I equate Narewski to Cage from Pet Semetary - he might come back but he also probably will not be like he was before. That kids has battled for sure.
- They are close to 70% on EMO - 6 trips to the box like yesterday with some full time could mean 4-6-8 goals goals - take your pick
- It seems like a team where you have to take away - or try - the attack to whatever degree you can. Cormier/Dickson and Shellenberger have 40 of the 84 goals. You can't play them straight up and think you'll be successful. Cormier with 5/Dickson with 4 and Shellenberger with 2-3 while passing out 5 helpers is how you get boat raced. I would give someone like Carson Brown a very simple assignment - you follow Cormier everywhere - you don't slide - you don't do anything but stay in front of him. If the Virginia middies have a field day - shake their hand at the end of the game but you probably can't play an attack averaging over 16 - I repeat 16 - points per game with a standard approach.
- Oh their defense has a couple monsters with wingspans like condors

JHU will have another advantage against UVA. Both teams just played on Saturday. Jays' contest started six hours earlier so they will have fresher legs while the Hoos will be dragging by the second half.

As some have pointed out earlier, this is enough to make you lose games like UNC, and lose championships on Memorial Day because of the deficit of 2-3 recovery hours in that case...

UVA was resting starters after Q1 this past weekend. Even their third string beat Richmond.

The only *gassed* Hoos for tomorrow night are the 3rd string who played a lot on Saturday.

[HopFan16]

congrats to hopkins on the dub, and glad they're getting guys back. makes for a bigger game this week, hope it's a good one.

I hope it's not 10-0 out of the gate or whatever like last year - there should be no moral victories in that locker room but aside from being at home it's hard to see Hopkins with a bunch of advantages. UVA does present a very conspicuous set of problems that you have to solve:
- Their face-off man - as good as anyone - is averaging 60% and 1.5 goals per game. If he was on Hopkins roster he would be tied for 5th in goals. A really tall order for Dunn who took 32 face-offs yesterday (LaSalla took 26). Callahan will likely HAVE to contribute as I equate Narewski to Cage from Pet Semetary - he might come back but he also probably will not be like he was before. That kids has battled for sure.
- They are close to 70% on EMO - 6 trips to the box like yesterday with some full time could mean 4-6-8 goals goals - take your pick
- It seems like a team where you have to take away - or try - the attack to whatever degree you can. Cormier/Dickson and Shellenberger have 40 of the 84 goals. You can't play them straight up and think you'll be successful. Cormier with 5/Dickson with 4 and Shellenberger with 2-3 while passing out 5 helpers is how you get boat raced. I would give someone like Carson Brown a very simple assignment - you follow Cormier everywhere - you don't slide - you don't do anything but stay in front of him. If the Virginia middies have a field day - shake their hand at the end of the game but you probably can't play an attack averaging over 16 - I repeat 16 - points per game with a standard approach.
- Oh their defense has a couple monsters with wingspans like condors

JHU will have another advantage against UVA. Both teams just played on Saturday. Jays' contest started six hours earlier so they will have fresher legs while the Hoos will be dragging by the second half.

As some have pointed out earlier, this is enough to make you lose games like UNC, and lose championships on Memorial Day because of the deficit of 2-3 recovery hours in that case...

Their game with Richmond was over in the first quarter though. They subbed liberally in the second half. I doubt their starters even broke a sweat.

LaSalla did take 26 faceoffs, so maybe that's a factor on short rest but that kid is an energizer bunny.

[Gatsby]

congrats to hopkins on the dub, and glad they're getting guys back. makes for a bigger game this week, hope it's a good one.

I hope it's not 10-0 out of the gate or whatever like last year - there should be no moral victories in that locker room but aside from being at home it's hard to see Hopkins with a bunch of advantages. UVA does present a very conspicuous set of problems that you have to solve:
- Their face-off man - as good as anyone - is averaging 60% and 1.5 goals per game. If he was on Hopkins roster he would be tied for 5th in goals. A really tall order for Dunn who took 32 face-offs yesterday (LaSalla took 26). Callahan will likely HAVE to contribute as I equate Narewski to Cage from Pet Semetary - he might come back but he also probably will not be like he was before. That kids has battled for sure.
- They are close to 70% on EMO - 6 trips to the box like yesterday with some full time could mean 4-6-8 goals goals - take your pick
- It seems like a team where you have to take away - or try - the attack to whatever degree you can. Cormier/Dickson and Shellenberger have 40 of the 84 goals. You can't play them straight up and think you'll be successful. Cormier with 5/Dickson with 4 and Shellenberger with 2-3 while passing out 5 helpers is how you get boat raced. I would give someone like Carson Brown a very simple assignment - you follow Cormier everywhere - you don't slide - you don't do anything but stay in front of him. If the Virginia middies have a field day - shake their hand at the end of the game but you probably can't play an attack averaging over 16 - I repeat 16 - points per game with a standard approach.
- Oh their defense has a couple monsters with wingspans like condors

JHU will have another advantage against UVA. Both teams just played on Saturday. Jays' contest started six hours earlier so they will have fresher legs while the Hoos will be dragging by the second half.

As some have pointed out earlier, this is enough to make you lose games like UNC, and lose championships on Memorial Day because of the deficit of 2-3 recovery hours in that case...

Their game with Richmond was over in the first quarter though. They subbed liberally in the second half. I doubt their starters even broke a sweat.

LaSalla did take 26 faceoffs, so maybe that's a factor on short rest but that kid is an energizer bunny.

I guess it was a four-hour difference in start time, not six. Anyway, if the UVA starters only played the first half, which I don't think is true (they played a majority of the second half too), that's still a 2-3 hour difference in rest time they missed out on. I've heard people saying the top seed on Memorial Day shouldn't have to play last because they miss those extra 2-3 hours of rest. The tired legs argument had a lot of legs in the UNC discussion. Well, Hoos will have the tired legs this time around.

[BigTom5]

congrats to hopkins on the dub, and glad they're getting guys back. makes for a bigger game this week, hope it's a good one.

I hope it's not 10-0 out of the gate or whatever like last year - there should be no moral victories in that locker room but aside from being at home it's hard to see Hopkins with a bunch of advantages. UVA does present a very conspicuous set of problems that you have to solve:
- Their face-off man - as good as anyone - is averaging 60% and 1.5 goals per game. If he was on Hopkins roster he would be tied for 5th in goals. A really tall order for Dunn who took 32 face-offs yesterday (LaSalla took 26). Callahan will likely HAVE to contribute as I equate Narewski to Cage from Pet Semetary - he might come back but he also probably will not be like he was before. That kids has battled for sure.
- They are close to 70% on EMO - 6 trips to the box like yesterday with some full time could mean 4-6-8 goals goals - take your pick
- It seems like a team where you have to take away - or try - the attack to whatever degree you can. Cormier/Dickson and Shellenberger have 40 of the 84 goals. You can't play them straight up and think you'll be successful. Cormier with 5/Dickson with 4 and Shellenberger with 2-3 while passing out 5 helpers is how you get boat raced. I would give someone like Carson Brown a very simple assignment - you follow Cormier everywhere - you don't slide - you don't do anything but stay in front of him. If the Virginia middies have a field day - shake their hand at the end of the game but you probably can't play an attack averaging over 16 - I repeat 16 - points per game with a standard approach.
- Oh their defense has a couple monsters with wingspans like condors

JHU will have another advantage against UVA. Both teams just played on Saturday. Jays' contest started six hours earlier so they will have fresher legs while the Hoos will be dragging by the second half.

As some have pointed out earlier, this is enough to make you lose games like UNC, and lose championships on Memorial Day because of the deficit of 2-3 recovery hours in that case...

Their game with Richmond was over in the first quarter though. They subbed liberally in the second half. I doubt their starters even broke a sweat.

LaSalla did take 26 faceoffs, so maybe that's a factor on short rest but that kid is an energizer bunny.

I guess it was a four-hour difference in start time, not six. Anyway, if the UVA starters only played the first half, which I don't think is true (they played a majority of the second half too), that's still a 2-3 hour difference in rest time they missed out on. I've heard people saying the top seed on Memorial Day shouldn't have to play last because they miss those extra 2-3 hours of rest. The tired legs argument had a lot of legs in the UNC discussion. Well, Hoos will have the tired legs this time around.

*UVA pulled Shellenberger and Cormier early in the 3rd quarter last weekend
**The Memorial Day turnaround is 2 days vs 3 days here, each additional day lessens the effect of 4 extra hours of rest
***Counting on tired legs late in the game to be the difference may be foolish, the last 3 weeks UVAs been leading by 11, 8, and 15 through 3 quarters.

[wgdsr]

mich made it a game with uva, don't see why hopkins couldn't. faceoff has to be encouraging vs st joe's, marcille back and shooting % ^^.

short week, i doubt you'll see anything different in schemes at either end from either team.

[HopFan16]

Fun stat from the game notes for UVA: Matt Collison is the first freshman middie to score multiple goals in four straight games since...Paul Rabil in 2005

[DocBarrister]

Fun stat from the game notes for UVA: Matt Collison is the first freshman middie to score multiple goals in four straight games since...Paul Rabil in 2005

Quint has already used the word “greatness” when discussing Collison. Almost certainly too early for that, but he’s an impressive freshman middie.

Blue Jays are a good team. They have beaten three currently ranked teams (Jacksonville, GT, and St. Joe’s) and their only two losses have been to ranked teams (UNC and Loyola).

If the Blue Jays bring their “A” game, they can be competitive with Virginia.

DocBarrister

[BigTom5]

If the Blue Jays bring their “A” game, they can be competitive with Virginia.

*If Virginia brings their “B” game or below

[GSP]

With the very significant divergence in the quality of lacrosse played by Hopkins and UVA over the last few years, it would be far more representative of their respective lacrosse' relevance if the series were to switch to a 2 home games for UVA, followed by 1 home game format for Hopkins, then back to UVA for 2 home games etc. JHU cannot afford to lose UVA off of their schedule.

[10stone5]

Fun stat from the game notes for UVA: Matt Collison is the first freshman middie to score multiple goals in four straight games since...Paul Rabil in 2005

The funniest moment from the St Joe game,
they’re holding for a last shot, the St Joe middie I don’t
know what he was thinking decides to stick check Collison,
stick bounces off Collison, hits the turf, Collison skates in for
a slam dunk, no one from St Joe’s bothered to pick up Collison.

[flalax22]

Fun stat from the game notes for UVA: Matt Collison is the first freshman middie to score multiple goals in four straight games since...Paul Rabil in 2005

Quint has already used the word “greatness” when discussing Collison. Almost certainly too early for that, but he’s an impressive freshman middie.

Quint needs to chill. Epstein was labelled great after one season and made a sophomore captain. Injuries, interest, coaching changes. Things happen. Collison has the potential to be great but let’s give him some time.

[jhu06]

With the very significant divergence in the quality of lacrosse played by Hopkins and UVA over the last few years, it would be far more representative of their respective lacrosse' relevance if the series were to switch to a 2 home games for UVA, followed by 1 home game format for Hopkins, then back to UVA for 2 home games etc. JHU cannot afford to lose UVA off of their schedule.

dixon said this is going back to the weekend next year as is unc.