THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[viper]

Tuition is in the same ballpark as Yale, Princeton, Penn, and a dozen other competitive schools who seem to be doing just fine.

Look at how each of those three teams have done over the last decade. None of their records are acceptable to Hop fans, correct?

They have probably all done similarly, however it's not just past performance, but how things are trending and if Dave had this team be at least competitive after 10 years of frustration there would be less clamor. In contrast, they are arguable even worse than they have been in their recent "bad" years.

[viper]

I recall in a news conference sometime after the OSU loss in the tournament a few years back - Coach P was quick to say (paraphrasing) that they needed to get "bigger and stronger" in the middle of the field. Not sure what he meant based on what I see on the field.

[Wood Sticks 4ever]

E.g., how much is tuition at Hopkins again?

A fan - you make some good points in your posts, but we really need to back off this JHU is unusually expensive stuff. This is what a private college education costs. Duke, ND, Princeton, UDenver, and Loyola all have tuition between $45k and $50k. In fact, Loyola ($48,920) costs more than JHU ($48,710).

[a fan]

Ok, so which programs are where Hopkins wants to be in terms of year in year out performance over the last decade?

Maryland
Notre Dame
Duke

Am I missing anyone?

[a fan]

A fan - you make some good points in your posts, but we really need to back off this JHU is unusually expensive stuff. This is what a private college education costs. Duke, ND, Princeton, UDenver, and Loyola all have tuition between $45k and $50k. In fact, Loyola ($48,920) costs more than JHU ($48,710).

So does Syracuse. That's a fair point, but pointing out that tuition is a factor in recruiting is fair, too.

[HopFan16]

Ok, so which programs are where Hopkins wants to be in terms of year in year out performance over the last decade?

Maryland
Notre Dame
Duke

Am I missing anyone?

Denver: 7 quarterfinals, 5 Final Fours, and a championship in the last decade. I think most of us would be pretty happy with that. In fact that blows by steelhop's "get to a final four every few years" criteria. Now much of that was with the help of someone named Trevor Baptiste, and it looks like Denver is in a similar boat to Hop in 2019, but yeah, that's a very solid 10 year run.

It's true that it's not a big group that have had sustained success in recent years. Yale, Loyola, Virginia, Ohio State, Penn State, Penn, Towson are all "trending up" and have more to prove I think before we anoint them but certainly if you're a fan of any of those teams you have reason to be very optimistic while over here at Homewood the trend is decidedly in the opposite direction over a three/four year period.

I feel as though I'm pretty realistic about the situation—I don't expect Hopkins to ever get back to where it was, and I wouldn't even expect the "Final Four every few years" standard that some have adopted. It's really, really hard to make a Final Four these days, as we're all too aware of. I am at the point where I'd be content just making the playoffs every year and being competitive/looking the part. Maybe that means they sneak into a FF or better every once in awhile but I'd be happy just to more competitive with the other top teams than we are. That means no more giving up 20 goals to a conference foe, no matter how good their offense is. That means no more getting blown out in the first round of the tournament. At least make it respectable. At least show that you belong.

If you do that then my theory is some bounces go your way, you get lucky every few years and maybe you have a real shot at a trophy. But what we're dealing with right now is 1) a team that seems to struggle more often than not just to make the postseason (this year is likely to be a miss, barring a miracle) and 2) if by some grace of God they're able to make the playoffs, they look overmatched by the other teams. Obviously 2015 was an exception. But there are exceptions to every pattern. Hopkins is a team that not only should be playing in May but should be *competitive* in May. That can mean something different to each person. But I think it's clear that whatever you think that means, the team is not meeting that.

[Wheels]

Ok, so which programs are where Hopkins wants to be in terms of year in year out performance over the last decade?

Maryland
Notre Dame
Duke

Am I missing anyone?

Let's narrow this a little more. Of JHU, Loyola, and Towson, which program do you think will have best next 3 seasons (regular season conference title, conference tournament, NCAA tournament success)?

5 years ago, this would have been super easy. Now...?

[a fan]

It's true that it's not a big group that have had sustained success in recent years. Yale, Loyola, Virginia, Ohio State, Penn State, Penn, Towson are all "trending up" and have more to prove I think before we anoint them but certainly if you're a fan of any of those teams you have reason to be very optimistic while over here at Homewood the trend is decidedly in the opposite direction over a three/four year period.

Agreed.

I feel as though I'm pretty realistic about the situation—I don't expect Hopkins to ever get back to where it was, and I wouldn't even expect the "Final Four every few years" standard that some have adopted. It's really, really hard to make a Final Four these days, as we're all too aware of. I am at the point where I'd be content just making the playoffs every year and being competitive/looking the part. Maybe that means they sneak into a FF or better every once in awhile but I'd be happy just to more competitive with the other top teams than we are. That means no more giving up 20 goals to a conference foe, no matter how good their offense is.

Agree with your assessment, save the last sentence. These days, every program is going to have a bad game or bad season. And when you do----witness Loyola's 7 goal blowout loss to Boston University. Remember your blowout win in the Dome? I sure do.

[TheBigIguana]

Ok, so which programs are where Hopkins wants to be in terms of year in year out performance over the last decade?

Maryland
Notre Dame
Duke

Am I missing anyone?

Let's narrow this a little more. Of JHU, Loyola, and Towson, which program do you think will have best next 3 seasons (regular season conference title, conference tournament, NCAA tournament success)?

5 years ago, this would have been super easy. Now...?

It would have been easy since in the Spring of 2014 Loyola was the #1 team for most of the year before being stunned by the Thompson show and were only 2 years removed from a title. The answer is the same now even with Spencer graduating.

With that in mind Petro is coaching for his job the next two weeks right? Or are they going to let him coach in a contract year next season with his job truly on the line?

[a fan]

Let's narrow this a little more. Of JHU, Loyola, and Towson, which program do you think will have best next 3 seasons (regular season conference title, conference tournament, NCAA tournament success)?

5 years ago, this would have been super easy. Now...?

Yes. Now Hopkins is in the Big Ten.

So to answer your question: Loyola needs to win the Patriot to get a NCAA bid, Towson the CAA to get a NCAA bid, and Hopkins the Big Ten.

Think about that for a moment, and assume that Hopkins is having a solid season until each program hits their conference tournaments.

Which of the three is the hardest path to an NCAA bid?

Do you think it's a coincidence that parity arrived with the arrival of the conference tournament AQ's? I don't.

[HopFan16]

Loyola needs to win the Patriot to get a NCAA bid

Barring total chaos/bid thefts in the Ivy and Big Ten tournaments (I'm talking like Brown or Princeton winning the Ivy tournament or Rutgers/Hopkins winning the Big Ten), Loyola almost certainly will get an at-large bid if they don't win their conference. They're in a good position right now to make the playoffs regardless.

Agree with your assessment, save the last sentence. These days, every program is going to have a bad game or bad season. And when you do----witness Loyola's 7 goal blowout loss to Boston University. Remember your blowout win in the Dome? I sure do.

For the purposes of this discussion I'll keep this to margins of greater than 5 goals only. Since 2015—the last time Hopkins was in a Final Four—we've gotten the following results:

2016: Loss 16-9 vs. Rutgers, Loss 17-8 vs. Brown in 1st round NCAAs
2017: Loss 18-7 vs. Princeton, Loss 12-5 vs. Maryland, Loss 19-6 vs. Duke 1st round NCAAs
2018: Loss 12-5 vs. Loyola
2019: Loss 17-8 vs. Towson, Loss 18-12 vs. Loyola, Loss 20-9 vs. Penn State

Save 2018 when the only real blowout was an early-season game at Loyola, every year has had multiple big-time shellackings. Outside of Cuse's 2018 which had the obvious games against Hop and Albany in the Dome, I'm struggling to find a similar pattern. I'm seeing not only fewer losses in general but far fewer blowout losses. A lot of 1-2 goal losses in which they were at least competitive. For Hop it hasn't just been a bad game. It's a longterm trend. Loyola's big loss to BU this year was the first time they've lost to someone other than Duke by more than 5 goals since 2015. (Looking back at these results, boy has Loyola struggled against Duke. But that's neither here nor there.)

[TheBigIguana]

Let's narrow this a little more. Of JHU, Loyola, and Towson, which program do you think will have best next 3 seasons (regular season conference title, conference tournament, NCAA tournament success)?

5 years ago, this would have been super easy. Now...?

Yes. Now Hopkins is in the Big Ten.

So to answer your question: Loyola needs to win the Patriot to get a NCAA bid, Towson the CAA to get a NCAA bid, and Hopkins the Big Ten.

Think about that for a moment, and assume that Hopkins is having a solid season until each program hits their conference tournaments.

Which of the three is the hardest path to an NCAA bid?

Do you think it's a coincidence that parity arrived with the arrival of the conference tournament AQ's? I don't.

Beating Army last week secured Loyola's spot unless they lost to Lafayette or there is a bunch of bids stolen by conference tournament upsets. Hopkins has a chance of making it by winning next week even if they were to lose in the B1G tournament but losing next week means they can't be at large eligible. The only team with close to a 0% chance of an at large of the three is probably Towson but even they aren't totally out. It'll require a monumental amount of help though for them if they lose the CAA.

[a fan]

Safe to say we're on the same page here. Absolutely agree that Hopkins is trending down.

But you're not a Cuse fan, so you won't remember the first round exits to Siena, Army, etc., blowout losses to Hopkins, Maryland, etc.

Syracuse is trending up, but I'm under no illusions: they could very well lose in the 1st round this year. Luck of the draw.

Appreciate the conversation, thank you.

[Hawkeye]

https://imgur.com/a/vyzkUqz
^ That is for the 2010s, so the last nine seasons. Judge for yourself.

[Hawkeye]

Let's narrow this a little more. Of JHU, Loyola, and Towson, which program do you think will have best next 3 seasons (regular season conference title, conference tournament, NCAA tournament success)?

5 years ago, this would have been super easy. Now...?

Would it? Was Hopkins that far ahead (if at all) of Loyola 5 years ago? Loyola wasn't very far removed from their 2012 championship at that point.

[Wheels]

Let's narrow this a little more. Of JHU, Loyola, and Towson, which program do you think will have best next 3 seasons (regular season conference title, conference tournament, NCAA tournament success)?

5 years ago, this would have been super easy. Now...?

Would it? Was Hopkins that far ahead (if at all) of Loyola 5 years ago? Loyola wasn't very far removed from their 2012 championship at that point.

So which of the 3 programs do you think will have the best results over the next 3 years?

5 years ago, I'd imagine that all Hopkins fans would have said Hopkins, even with Loyola's title just happening. 5 years ago, you all weren't too far removed from the recent titles.

The spreadsheet you posted was kind of eye opening for me.

[Hawkeye]

So which of the 3 programs do you think will have the best results over the next 3 years?

I defer my answer on this one until July.

[DMac]

Syracuse is trending up, but I'm under no illusions: they could very well lose in the 1st round this year. Luck of the draw.

Yet with anything other than the NC all of the JD naysayers will come out of the bushes (you can bet they're chomping at the bit but have had to remain silent as of late) with all of the, "he can't attract the right recruits anymore, can't coach anymore, blah, blah, blah, etc, etc, etc."

[51percentcorn]

I am afraid "a fan" is correct for the most part - Hopkins does not have the talent - there is not one player Tambroni would trade to Hopkins for one of his current players - Penn State was better at EVERY position on the field. Sure Tambroni would probably love Epstein but not at the expense of Ament. The old joke about using lack of speed to make up for lack of size is way too true. Go position by position on the field:
Goalie - Darby has shown some ability to track close in shots and low shots - he gets demolished by high heat - his save percentage is 48% - outlet decisions have been poor at times - others have said he doesn't direct the defense well

Defense - Starting defense has 61 ground balls and 29 caused turnovers - which one of them you ask? No that's for all 3 - That's 4.5 ground balls per game and 2.2 CTOs per game. Those stats are pretty meager. I think the unit could be acceptable talent wise under a different scheme where they didn't have to worry so much about the defensive mid-field

LS Defensive mid-field - 41 ground balls and 16 CTOs - given they are on the wings the ground ball totals are pathetic - 3 ground balls and barely 1 CTO per game - and I have seen Reinson make some horrible mistakes in defense

SS Defensive Mid-field - 33 ground balls 12 CTOs - 12 penalties for 10 minutes in penalty time - they have been oft discussed and simply comprise one of the weakest SSDM tandems around. Virtually all the ground balls are Hubler's, virtually all the CTOs are Jones'

1st Offensive mid-field - the entire year - 28 goals - 17 assists- 26% shot % a mind boggling 20 ground balls - the only thing you can positively say is 16 turnovers is not horrible - there are likely many DI mid-fielders that can exceed those stats all by themselves. Concannon' s 14 and 6 would be pretty good for a second line middie

2nd offensive mid-field - current edition - 18 goals 7 assists - 26% shot % - another mind boggling ground ball total of 7 and 13 turnovers - Cattoni and Mabbett add 4 goals and 1 assist and 3 ground balls and 4 turnovers - given that Cattoni played in two routs and Mabbett scored his in complete garbage time - virtually all of those goals are meaningless

Attack - When your star attackman is a freshman and he leads the team in goals with only 31 - that's a problem - your senior captain lethal shooter has regressed 28% shot percentage 19 ground balls and 16 turnovers is worse than last year I believe. Epstein is the only attackman with a shot % that has a 3 handle - Williams is down to 23% As a unit they have 49 ground balls and 62 turnovers. If you didn't know anything about anything and just saw the Hopkins statistics sheet - you would come to one conclusion - as the ol ball coach for the Redskins used to say "Not very good"

FOGO - a slight bright spot in the dim forest - Prouty at 61% and Matt N at 50% - likely better than anyone could have hoped for. In two years when they are the elder statesmen they could likely be a force

You can't just just lay this on the coaching staff for the performance on the field - you can absolutely lay it on Petro because he chooses the players - look at it another way - Foley will likely get some AA recognition - mainly because he was predicted to be a 1st team before the season. Epstein might get HM AA just because there is no one else. There is an outside chance neither does - when was the last time you ever said that about Johns Hopkins?

[a fan]

Syracuse is trending up, but I'm under no illusions: they could very well lose in the 1st round this year. Luck of the draw.

Yet with anything other than the NC all of the JD naysayers will come out of the bushes (you can bet they're chomping at the bit but have had to remain silent as of late) with all of the, "he can't attract the right recruits anymore, can't coach anymore, blah, blah, blah, etc, etc, etc."

True. But they said that all the way back in 1999. Shut up, is my response to them.

How much fun has it been watching them the last two years? That's enough for me. The kids look like they're having a ball out there.