THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

A couple more data points:

With all due respect, where are you going with that wombat? What good is a more accurate RPI? Why do we need additional date for a 6-6 team? Whether we are 15 or 25 matters not if we can't beat a team ahead of us.

If we lose next week and somehow tOSU takes the day off, we should decline the BiG invite to avoid another embarassment.

To answer some overnight questions:

Agreed on how pointless it is.

I’m mainly following some of the rankings just to watch how they devolve over these last few weeks. And to keep watch on the names of teams who have ascended above Hopkins.

Massey now has us falling to 16th:

https://www.masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings

But, hey, Hopkins is the highest ranked six-loss team in the country! And we’re ahead of UNC and Princeton! So, there’s that.

KFTC

Kentuckians For The Commonwealth? Or is this referring to a chicken? Page count?

It's a reference (to make people look it up) to an infamous utterance by a NY anchorman in SEP 2009.

It’s my way of finding an alternative way of saying:

Keep drinking that koolaid

or, more appropriately for some of the outrageous stuff here:

Keep smoking that crack.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

laf’s TSP has been updated:

LaxBytes TSP 22APR2019

8C2FB8AA-85E1-46AE-BDE2-ECDA20AB259B.jpeg (241.03 KiB) Viewed 3822 times

Down to 24th, ahead of Detroit Mercy.

AQ prob dropped to 19.3, while the at large jumped up from 5.55 to 7.55 percent. Still no quality wins though.

Mercy, mercy.

Now for a musical interlude to set the tone for the final six days:

[HopFan16]

We've been over this before, but there really isn't much depth behind them. The guy with a legitimate gripe, of course, is Evan Zinn, whose lack of playing time at the offensive midfield at this point is so painfully illogical that it could be the plot of a Franz Kafka novel. Cattoni is hurt, Ernst is a walk-on, so you're really only talking about Zinn, Mabbett, Lily, and Degnon. Mabbett's goal today was against PSU's backups but at least he showed the ability to square up his matchup and put the ball in the back of the net which is something the other guys have struggled to do all year. I've already advocated for Degnon to get playing time. Shilling and Fox can't play midfield. Stagnitta must be a Tewaaraton-level player in practice to have become a mainstay on the 2nd line at the expense of Zinn and the others. I mean he must be Kyle Harrison when the cameras aren't on. That's the only explanation I can think of. That's everyone. That's all the offensive players. Maybe you give Kuhn is short-stick back and let him play offense? Only half kidding.

You don't think Fox or Shilling would have more than three goals at this point running first line minutes? That is almost laughable.

They can play midfield as much as Forry or any of the munchkins.

But yes my real point is Zinn and Mabbett and may be even Lily. All are bigger, faster and more skilled than what Benson puts out. I know you have said Mabbett isn't fast but I disagree. He's faster than Forry and other guys with tiny little legs who get a full run at 1st and 2nd line.

BTW a nice workman like game from Coulter. Only took them four years to figure out a guy that competes hard may be a benefit to have on the field.

I absolutely do not think either of them would have any more goals, no. You did see Shilling get stripped near the midline on an EMO attempt against Princeton, right? And while Fox obviously has the box background and can do some nice things in tight, he can’t play midfield. In fact they actually tried that already a bit in the past.

Re: Mabbett, I never said he wasn’t fast, that was someone else. Now that you mention it though, from what I’ve seen, he doesn’t seem very fast, but he also doesn’t seem too slow either—at least not much if any slower than most of the other middies save Concannon.

Still think this is missing the forest for the trees. The D gave up a 20 spot yesterday. Every game it’s 18, 16, 15, etc. The defense is broken. Swapping in a few freshman middies, as much as I’d love to see that, wouldn’t change things. (That’s not a reason that they shouldn’t, of course—as I’ve argued before if the team is going to stink regardless, why NOT get your youngins more PT?)

[viper]

The defense is broken. Swapping in a few freshman middies, as much as I’d love to see that, wouldn’t change things. (That’s not a reason that they shouldn’t, of course—as I’ve argued before if the team is going to stink regardless, why NOT get your youngins more PT?)

Might not change things for this year, but getting some sea legs on the young ones could better prepare this team for future years. Just sayin......

[Peter Brown]

As a Loyola fan, let me say this: the whole lacrosse world sees that it is way past time for Hop to move on from Petro, and he from them. Sometimes, both the program and the coach need a break from each other. That time is past due. The team is not responding, and the fact is Petro has historically done a woeful job getting freshmen middies time to develop into superior D1 players, with few exceptions.

As someone who has followed Mabbett: he'd have gotten 10x more playing time on any other D1 team sitting at .500. Petro for whatever style he prefers, has waisted this kid's year, similar IMO to what he did with Brinton Valis (a kid who would have enjoyed far better success elsewhere). I know two other D1 coaches who wanted Mabbett badly.

[stupefied]

Feel for Foley, sure it's not the way he envisioned things.

[DougELax]

The defense is broken. Swapping in a few freshman middies, as much as I’d love to see that, wouldn’t change things. (That’s not a reason that they shouldn’t, of course—as I’ve argued before if the team is going to stink regardless, why NOT get your youngins more PT?)

Might not change things for this year, but getting some sea legs on the young ones could better prepare this team for future years. Just sayin......

What if Coach puts in young ones for the final game and Hopkins O has better results? That would make Coach look bad wouldn't it? Expect same old, same old on Saturday night.

[HopFan16]

The defense is broken. Swapping in a few freshman middies, as much as I’d love to see that, wouldn’t change things. (That’s not a reason that they shouldn’t, of course—as I’ve argued before if the team is going to stink regardless, why NOT get your youngins more PT?)

Might not change things for this year, but getting some sea legs on the young ones could better prepare this team for future years. Just sayin......

What if Coach puts in young ones for the final game and Hopkins O has better results? That would make Coach look bad wouldn't it? Expect same old, same old on Saturday night.

If he's worried about "looking bad" at the expense of the team actually playing well then he needs to be fired into the sun. I don't know that this is the case. Just saying, hypothetically.

As a Loyola fan, let me say this: the whole lacrosse world sees that it is way past time for Hop to move on from Petro, and he from them. Sometimes, both the program and the coach need a break from each other. That time is past due. The team is not responding, and the fact is Petro has historically done a woeful job getting freshmen middies time to develop into superior D1 players, with few exceptions.

As someone who has followed Mabbett: he'd have gotten 10x more playing time on any other D1 team sitting at .500. Petro for whatever style he prefers, has waisted this kid's year, similar IMO to what he did with Brinton Valis (a kid who would have enjoyed far better success elsewhere). I know two other D1 coaches who wanted Mabbett badly.

I don't know if this is quite the same situation as Valis. Valis played quite a bit as a freshman and did not register a single point. He had 5 goals on 29 shots through his first three years. Whether or not he was managed properly throughout his career is another question but as far as his freshman year goes, he had more of an opportunity. Never really put it together until his senior year. But boy do we miss a player like him right now.

[51percentcorn]

OK - here are my thoughts on Hopkins lacrosse. We all know the reported (and actual as in this case perception is reality) shortcomings of Hopkins as a lacrosse destination (in no particular order of importance) - difficult academically, Baltimore's current decline/crime rate, no other DI teams or facilities, small student body, small female population with the intelligence stereotype of unattractiveness, diverse population with over 50% not looking like 95% of the lacrosse team - I am sure I have missed some. Petro long ago decided - IMO - that he had to combat this with a quantitative strategy rather than a qualitative one - i.e. he would take in 13-15 or so kids per class - he would recruit as early as possible - let the commitment process and no room at other inns get most of the kids to Hopkins - let the cream float to the top and deal with the fall-out. He decided that if he had to have long protracted battles for Top kids with UNC, UVA, Duke, Notre Dame, Maryland, and now the three sports behemoths in the Big 10 he would lose most of the time. The problem is that for the most part he got flotsam and jetsam instead of cream. Projecting lacrosse talent when you are dealing with freshmen and sophomores in high school is near impossible except for the very few. This is how you end up with no true mid-fielders on offense, and undersized and to some degree unathletic SSDMs. This has to be fixed - the new rules help but discipline needs to be adopted, committed to and enforced. Even though technically the juniors for the 2021 class cannot be officially contacted until September (I guess) - I know that through club/high school coaches etc. - thoughts/offers/whatever are likely being exchanged.

In addition to the recruiting debacle and roster construction - again it's possible Hopkins will have 16 longpoles next year - Why? - there has definitely been a coaching fall-off - one the hallmarks of the better Petro teams was discipline and doing the simple/correct things. Yesterday was embarrassing from that standpoint. I don't know why everybody is on Darby for the open net Ament goal - he was obviously told to adopt that strategy as he kept doing it - and it was more Foley's fault for going to the same side and running into Darby.They can't catch and throw - Marr was AWFUL yesterday - I am taken back to what Al McGuire once said about one of his Marquette players - "keep shooting - maybe you'll break your arm". I tlooks like the senior captain has checked out.

The defensive troubles begin and almost end with the SSDMs and their inability to deal with top middies to any degree. We now see why Hopkins slides early and then can get to the state where they look like the proverbial headless chickens - they have to cover up for the fact that Jones is too small and Hubler has no lateral quickness. The LSMs are nothing to write home about either - Kuhn has 13 or whatever goals in his career - I wish he had more than 29 ground balls and 7 CTOs - a Penn State middie ran through Reinson like he wasn't there.

A regime change does seem to be called for. It is not working on any level. It will be interesting to see if anything happens - one might argue that if Daniels and Shanahan don't really care about Hopkins men's lacrosse - then they will let him at least finish his contract. It's really bad that anybody would already be speculating that Hopkins' two best freshmen going forward could be thinking about transferring.

As an aside - that piece with Petro and Carc was beyond embarrassing for both parties - who cares that Petro would want to be Bono in another life? I wanted to hear what he thinks he needs to with the team.

I guess if RPI is the final tiebreaker - assuming Rutgers does not beat Penn State - Ohio State goes in the 3 way 2-3 record (also assuming an OSU victory over Michigan)? Somewhat of a blessing - a PSU re-match would not be any different. We would slide to everything and O'Keefe would score 10.

Oh well - no angst this May at least

[51percentcorn]

One more thing - as distasteful as it sounds - I think Hopkins has to join the ranks of the attempted poachers. I am not blind - I am sure Petro sends and receives signals - but it is not as effective as contacting a family directly (within the rules of course) - which I know for a fact he will not do - or wouldn't as of a year or two ago. Not wanting to disrespect any school - but there are kids at or going to (fill in the blank) that are better than what Hopkins has now and would love the opportunity to play Hopkins' schedule and get that exposure (which is one of the dwindling advantages of Hopkins lax).

Also - priorities for me in terms of the team's roster are (no matter what the regime looks like):
1. Somehow convincing Epstein and Zinn to stay - if they are having any thoughts about jumping ht esinking ship
2. Don't know how you do it - but you must try to protect the 2020 class - 2019 appears to be light on offensive talent - but 2020 does not - I have been told Grimes and McDermott can be real deals - and there are several others listed as middies.

[Hawkeye]

small female population with the intelligence stereotype of unattractiveness,

I guess if RPI is the final tiebreaker - assuming Rutgers does not beat Penn State - Ohio State goes in the 3 way 2-3 record (also assuming an OSU victory over Michigan)? Somewhat of a blessing - a PSU re-match would not be any different. We would slide to everything and O'Keefe would score 10.

Hopkins undergrad population is slightly over 50% female.

Based on the new tiebreaker information (if it is correct...), Hopkins is in the Big Ten tournament unless RU>PSU and UMCP>JHU. Hopkins will most likely play Maryland in the first round if they make it.

[Wood Sticks 4ever]

Thanks for sharing you thoughts - I think in many areas you nailed it. One area I disagree with is

shortcomings of Hopkins as a lacrosse destination (in no particular order of importance) - difficult academically, Baltimore's current decline/crime rate, no other DI teams or facilities, small student body, small female population with the intelligence stereotype of unattractiveness, diverse population with over 50% not looking like 95% of the lacrosse team - I am sure I have missed some. Petro long ago decided - IMO - that he had to combat this with a quantitative strategy rather than a qualitative one - i.e. he would take in 13-15 or so kids per class - he would recruit as early as possible - let the commitment process and no room at other inns get most of the kids to Hopkins

If you look at the non-public schools the are historically good (Duke, Notre Dame, Yale, ...) they are no bigger than JHU, the academics are comparable, Hopkins women are beautiful (my daughter was Class of '17, so KMA on that one) and although parts of Baltimore are a pit, the campus is an oasis and is probably all a recruit will see on a visit.
My worry is Petro doesn't recruit early because he is combating anything; he does it because it is easier. Face it: signing an 8th grader is easier that being in contact with a family for two years and then signing them as a junior. It also keeps the Alumni off his back (at least the ones who pay attention to IL Young Guns ranking). IMO, the new recruiting rules will be a huge benefit to JHU, for no reason than to protect us from ourselves

[Peter Brown]

OK - here are my thoughts on Hopkins lacrosse. We all know the reported (and actual as in this case perception is reality) shortcomings of Hopkins as a lacrosse destination (in no particular order of importance) - difficult academically, Baltimore's current decline/crime rate, no other DI teams or facilities, small student body, small female population with the intelligence stereotype of unattractiveness, diverse population with over 50% not looking like 95% of the lacrosse team - I am sure I have missed some. ...........

51percent: the thing is, Hop will always be an attractive spot for any serious lax kid. There is a dedicated (and not going anywhere) fan base which is massive and energetic. Homewood is somewhat like Yankee Stadium to most lax purists. And Hopkins offers a superior education getting better every day with Bloomberg's largesse. (btw, as a Baltimoron, I'd say the crime issue is more convoluted than the stats; stay away from the rougher parts of East and West Baltimore and generally you'll be okay. Between JHU + the hospital, and Under Armour, the city is changing for the better ever day; plus as woodstix says, JHU itself is an oasis)

I think you have some valid points, but the reality is really good lacrosse players continue to enroll at Hop. The problem isn't getting them apparently; the problem is assembling a great team. That falls on the coach. Sometimes a coach overstays his tenure; it's apparent to many outside the Hopkins world that Petro's time is well past done. He needs a break from the sport, to re-energize. Hopkins needs a break from Petro, to instill new energy. Here's my hail mary; hire Dom Starsia as a one-year interim coach while you conduct a great nation-wide search.

[HopFan16]

If early recruiting is such a problem then how have Maryland, Duke, Denver, Yale, etc. been able to succeed? They're all doing it too. Duke, Maryland, and Ohio State all have 2021 recruits already (Hopkins does not). I'm not saying early recruiting hasn't hurt this team but it does not come close to telling the whole story. Tillman, Danowski, and those guys have done a lot more with the early-recruited talent they've acquired than Hop's staff has.

Anyway, what's the point of recruiting early to make sure you get your guy if you're not even going to play the kid at the position where he thrives? (and where he would most help the team?) That to me is a bigger issue. Why did you want that kid on your team? To lead the midfield for four years, or to be a fourth-string SSDM? Has that decision helped the team?

I have no inside info on any player but I am not too worried about Epstein. He's the anchor of this offense as long as he stays healthy. He's got a chance to be one of this program's all-time greats. I wouldn't be completely shocked if he's a sophomore captain next year. (Ok I would be shocked, but hell, I'd give it to the kid at this point.) And I forget the specifics but isn't his father involved with the school somehow? I don't think he will leave. I am more worried about Zinn. This couldn't have been what he imagined when he committed.

Either way, whoever the coaches are next year, they simply must, MUST look into a transfer or two at the midfield. I know it's not like free agency and you can't just sign whoever you want but there will be guys in the transfer portal who'd love a chance to play at Homewood. You have to roll the dice on one. This incoming class of freshman may not provide any help at the position.

[johnnyonthegunpowder]

JHU is too busy becoming an autonomous state within Baltimore City to care much about winning and losing lacrosse games.

[Wheels]

With regards to Petro and his staff, are any high profile alumni sticking up for him? Rabil might be too busy...but what about Harrison, Brown, etc.?

I seldom see or hear anything from former JHU players defending Petro. Of course, I might not be looking in the right place for it.

[51percentcorn]

Let me be clear - I do not think Hopkins co-eds are un-attractive AT ALL. A very conspicuous group to someone who visits mostly for lax games are the lady laxers who watch their male compatriots on the fence on the opposite side - very pretty young women. I am discussing the stereotype - which DOES exist. It exists at places like Duke and the Ivies too I am sure.

The point about other successful lax schools having similar enrollments is a great point - probably counteracted by some of the other things that Hopkins does not have that those schools do.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Spotted the team bus on the way back from State College:

[DocBarrister]

Thanks for sharing you thoughts - I think in many areas you nailed it. One area I disagree with is

shortcomings of Hopkins as a lacrosse destination (in no particular order of importance) - difficult academically, Baltimore's current decline/crime rate, no other DI teams or facilities, small student body, small female population with the intelligence stereotype of unattractiveness, diverse population with over 50% not looking like 95% of the lacrosse team - I am sure I have missed some. Petro long ago decided - IMO - that he had to combat this with a quantitative strategy rather than a qualitative one - i.e. he would take in 13-15 or so kids per class - he would recruit as early as possible - let the commitment process and no room at other inns get most of the kids to Hopkins

If you look at the non-public schools the are historically good (Duke, Notre Dame, Yale, ...) they are no bigger than JHU, the academics are comparable, Hopkins women are beautiful (my daughter was Class of '17, so KMA on that one) and although parts of Baltimore are a pit, the campus is an oasis and is probably all a recruit will see on a visit.
My worry is Petro doesn't recruit early because he is combating anything; he does it because it is easier. Face it: signing an 8th grader is easier that being in contact with a family for two years and then signing them as a junior. It also keeps the Alumni off his back (at least the ones who pay attention to IL Young Guns ranking). IMO, the new recruiting rules will be a huge benefit to JHU, for no reason than to protect us from ourselves

A “diverse population” is not a “shortcoming” at Hopkins, and any recruit who thinks so should not be welcomed to the Blue Jay program.

DocBarrister

[Big Dog]

It is not working on any level. It will be interesting to see if anything happens - one might argue that if Daniels and Shanahan don't really care about Hopkins men's lacrosse - then they will let him at least finish his contract.

That would be Admin malpractice. If Petro is just on a one-year remaining contract, other coaches/recruiters will have a field day with that fact: come here and I'll be with you for four years; go to Bawlamer and you won't even know will be coaching there by the time you arrive.

Really only three choices: 1) Petro steps down/forced out/retires now; 2) Petro announces his retirement at the end of 2020 AND the school announces his replacement at the same time; 3) Petro is given an 'extension' with a simple buyout clause after next year. (The latter would be ridiculous, however, as no one would buy it.)

(IMO, an interim coach as noted above will put recruiting back a year.)