All Things Russia & Ukraine

[PizzaSnake]

There seems to be a ton of posts by folks who may or may not welcome a crash course on the facts of history in the region. This has been a helpful conversation below for folks who think Putin just decided to start a war “unprovoked.” And while some may feel like they know everything already, I’d still encourage them to listen to a few folks with hundreds of years between them knowing what’s transpired. Just like Listening to the neocons in the current White House helps inform me!

https://youtu.be/uAKI8n4Us7E

That's a disturbing recital. MacGregor sounds sober enough until he starts to devolve into partisan blame/shame near the end.

The Russian "starting point" in this narrative is that their fears of having NATO on their borders is a legitimate fear. It may be legitimate in the mind of the individual dictator, Vlad. A threat to authoritarianism. What if Russia was a more western-like nation, in terms of governance, economy, international relations, etc? A bad thing? What do the actual Russian PEOPLE think of THAT possibility??

..

not trying to beat a dead horse but again, could you imagine if Canada and Mexico were in a military alliance with Russia and had missiles pointed at us? And Russia’s policy towards the US was regime change? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand why Putin believes the threat is real. The only way to win is by organizing people from where they are. And right now there’s such little respect I doubt we will ever get back to Obama years.

Given the flow of chemical precursors for meth and fentanyl manufacture to Mexico from China and the flow of Chinese expatriates and their capital to Canada, I'd say China would be a more likely antagonist seeking to influence the North American continent. After all, doesn't China claim to be an Arctic state? Think of the possibilities if they controlled the second largest territory (Canada) in a rapidly warming world.

[a fan]

not trying to beat a dead horse but again, could you imagine if Canada and Mexico were in a military alliance with Russia and had missiles pointed at us? And Russia’s policy towards the US was regime change?

Yeah, and I addressed this horse of yours. You ignored it. Are you back here to have a discussion, or to lecture to us?

You're replying to what you perceive as one-sided media bias with your own one sided propaganda.

You left out a whole mess of details, my man. And since I know full well you're aware of these details, that tells me you're doing the far left thing of speaking to propaganda with your own propaganda.

You left out the fact that Putin already invaded Crimea.

You left out the fact that Putin has reneged on the Budapest Memorandum

You left out the fact that Putin hasn't left Ukraine alone....he's installed puppets, and messes with their politics all the time.

You left out that in the YouTube video, these policy wonks are saying that Putin doesn't want NATO next door to Russia. Do these guys have access to maps? In other words, what happens if Putin invades Ukraine, and annexes it? Have a look. As a result of Putin "not wanting missiles pointed at him along his border", now Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania now all have missiles on Putin's border.

What the heck kind of logic is this? This makes Putin's situation WORSE, not better. Invading Ukraine removes the neutral buffer between Russia and NATO. What's your response to that?

You also left out the reason that Putin gave for invading. If this is some noble, reasonable cause.....why has he lied to his people and the world as to why he invaded? Protip: it's because he knows he's full of it, and none of this makes sense.

And lastly: is Ukraine sovereign, or not? The Ukrainian people are telling you and the rest of the world's policy wonks to F off, we'll do what we want.

What's your response to that? To continue your metaphor: do Mexico and Canada get to do what the F they want, or not? Poland is on Russia's border. In what world are they allowed the sovereignty to join NATO, yet Ukraine is not? How the F does that make even a little sense?

You're a lefty, FFS. You're telling me you don't think the Ukrainians are free to run their country however they damn well please, so long as they do it peacefully?

You have this all backwards, my man. If you want to argue that the US shouldn't arm Ukraine, fine. Valid and solid criticism. It could make matters worse in the region....even the wisest among us can't see all ends. But telling us that Putin is justified in his invasion, or that Ukraine isn't free to do as it wishes? Come on. That's a big, fat, nope.

If Putin REALLY wanted to keep Ukraine neutral, and do it peacefully? Simple solution: give them their nukes back. Boom, done. Yet another fake problem solved. No one can mess with them if they're armed.

[old salt]

Petty. Small. Partisan. You demand perfection from Democrats. There isn't a poster here who isn't laughing at this sure, nobody's laughing at you , knowing full well you'd be defending Biden's performance if he had that little R by his name that is all-important to you.
I demand to hear from our President when the war is going to end & what he's doing to hasten the end.
He says that's up to the Ukrainians & sends another $40B

Did Joe get your communiqué??!! He must be scrambling to get you on his calendar!! He didn’t know you demanded it.

afan ok'd it.

Just a day or so ago you were praising the decision calling it a "game changer"

old salt wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:07 pm
Finally, Patriots headed to Ukraine. Long overdue. Game changer.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics ... index.html

Agreed; could matter a lot...if enough of them.

I'd really like to see more sophisticated, longer range drones, with heavier impact, to continue to target command and control and other strategic targets. The more that the Russian military finds themselves unable to operate, the better.

Patriots could make it possible for Ukraine to prevail without having to mount further counter offensive operations.
This could blunt Russia's primary remaining tactic & allow Ukraine to rearm, recover & make it through the winter, depleting Russia's stock of cruise missiles in the process. Time is now on Ukraine's side. This could prompt Putin's elite supporters to pull the plug on the war & even his time in power. We're finally give Ukraine what they need to prevail, without escalating.

Geez, what changed in 48 hours??????????

This happens quite often with you Salty and makes me think you're just mostly looking for an argument.

What changed ? Apparently Biden's finally given in on sending Patriots.

I'm giving Biden credit for FINALLY doing this . ...it's just 6 mos too late. I want the war ended asap & this will help/

[old salt]

“Fear of NATO” is pure Putin balderdash. As everybody knows, Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Also, NATO is a defensive treaty. NATO hasn’t invaded anybody ever. Nobody was going to invade Russia, although it might happen now due to what will go down in history as Putin‘s folly.

The Serbs & Afghans would disagree.

[a fan]

I'm giving Biden credit for FINALLY doing this . ...it's just 6 mos too late. I want the war ended asap & this will help/

Exactly what I've been saying: you want Biden to be PERFECT. In your world, he and his advisors aren't allowed to think, or consider options and the consequences of their actions. He has to shoot first, think later, and if he doesn't, you're all over him.

How many times have you mocked me, saying "the perfect is the enemy of the good".

[old salt]

A-10 Warthog?

BBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Be amusing to see how the Russian's "Maginot" line holds up to that flying 30mm gatling gun. Throw in a few depleted uranium rounds for shites and giggles. Too bad the Russian version probably isn't airworthy or has no pilots.

Ukraine needs to drag the Russian dciks in the dirt for a long time so they never try it again.

A-10's are great in uncontested airspace, but they'd suffer the same fate as Ukraine's SU-25's against Russia's air defense system.

Soviet legacy air defense systems, employed by both sides, own the skies.
That's why we haven't sent A-10's, Predator/Reaper drones or any other aircraft. We're sending air defense systems instead.

[PizzaSnake]

A-10 Warthog?

BBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Be amusing to see how the Russian's "Maginot" line holds up to that flying 30mm gatling gun. Throw in a few depleted uranium rounds for shites and giggles. Too bad the Russian version probably isn't airworthy or has no pilots.

Ukraine needs to drag the Russian dciks in the dirt for a long time so they never try it again.

A-10's are great in uncontested airspace, but they'd suffer the same fate as Ukraine's SU-25's against Russia's air defense system.

Soviet legacy air defense systems, employed by both sides, own the skies.
That's why we haven't sent A-10's, Predator/Reaper drones or any other aircraft. We're sending air defense systems instead.

Sure about that? How is Ukraine striking inside Russia?

[old salt]

I'm giving Biden credit for FINALLY doing this . ...it's just 6 mos too late. I want the war ended asap & this will help/

Exactly what I've been saying: you want Biden to be PERFECT. In your world, he and his advisors aren't allowed to think, or consider options and the consequences of their actions. He has to shoot first, think later, and if he doesn't, you're all over him.

How many times have you mocked me, saying "the perfect is the enemy of the good".

It's far from perfect. It's late. Look at the damage inflicted upon Ukraine while this decision was deferred. It might be too late to matter.
We haven't even started training the Ukrainians yet. Russia may have depleted their stocks of cruise missiles by the time the Patriots are finally deployed. They're already removing nuc warheads from cruise missiles & can only manufacture replacements @ 4/month.

The value in the Patriot deployment is to show Putin that his current strategy of missile attacks on the civilian population & infrastructure won't be possible indefinitely.

[MDlaxfan76]

Petty. Small. Partisan. You demand perfection from Democrats. There isn't a poster here who isn't laughing at this sure, nobody's laughing at you , knowing full well you'd be defending Biden's performance if he had that little R by his name that is all-important to you.
I demand to hear from our President when the war is going to end & what he's doing to hasten the end.
He says that's up to the Ukrainians & sends another $40B

Did Joe get your communiqué??!! He must be scrambling to get you on his calendar!! He didn’t know you demanded it.

afan ok'd it.

Just a day or so ago you were praising the decision calling it a "game changer"

old salt wrote: ↑
Tue Dec 13, 2022 3:07 pm
Finally, Patriots headed to Ukraine. Long overdue. Game changer.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/13/politics ... index.html

Agreed; could matter a lot...if enough of them.

I'd really like to see more sophisticated, longer range drones, with heavier impact, to continue to target command and control and other strategic targets. The more that the Russian military finds themselves unable to operate, the better.

Patriots could make it possible for Ukraine to prevail without having to mount further counter offensive operations.
This could blunt Russia's primary remaining tactic & allow Ukraine to rearm, recover & make it through the winter, depleting Russia's stock of cruise missiles in the process. Time is now on Ukraine's side. This could prompt Putin's elite supporters to pull the plug on the war & even his time in power. We're finally give Ukraine what they need to prevail, without escalating.

Geez, what changed in 48 hours??????????

This happens quite often with you Salty and makes me think you're just mostly looking for an argument.

What changed ? Apparently Biden's finally given in on sending Patriots.

I'm giving Biden credit for FINALLY doing this . ...it's just 6 mos too late. I want the war ended asap & this will help/

Could you share with us any posts 6 months or longer ago when you were saying we should send them Patriots asap?

I don't recall them, but I'm getting old and foggy at times.

My recollection is more that you were in the camp of not sending more of our highest tech military capabilities, that such would be 'provocative' etc, etc I realize that you may have been talking more about offensive weaponry (I was arguing that such was needed to actually beat back Russia and ultimately force them out) but I don't recall calls from you re Patriot systems.

[old salt]

A-10 Warthog?

BBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Be amusing to see how the Russian's "Maginot" line holds up to that flying 30mm gatling gun. Throw in a few depleted uranium rounds for shites and giggles. Too bad the Russian version probably isn't airworthy or has no pilots.

Ukraine needs to drag the Russian dciks in the dirt for a long time so they never try it again.

A-10's are great in uncontested airspace, but they'd suffer the same fate as Ukraine's SU-25's against Russia's air defense system.

Soviet legacy air defense systems, employed by both sides, own the skies.
That's why we haven't sent A-10's, Predator/Reaper drones or any other aircraft. We're sending air defense systems instead.

Sure about that? How is Ukraine striking inside Russia?

That's not in the airspace over Ukraine where Russian forces are in the field, where the A-10 would operate.

Russia has the S-400 in Crimea & on ships in the Black Sea & medium/short range air defense systems in the field with their forces in Ukraine.

[a fan]

I'm giving Biden credit for FINALLY doing this . ...it's just 6 mos too late. I want the war ended asap & this will help/

Exactly what I've been saying: you want Biden to be PERFECT. In your world, he and his advisors aren't allowed to think, or consider options and the consequences of their actions. He has to shoot first, think later, and if he doesn't, you're all over him.

How many times have you mocked me, saying "the perfect is the enemy of the good".

It's far from perfect. It's late. Look at the damage inflicted upon Ukraine while this decision was deferred.

And you're gonna pretend you're too dumb to understand why he'd wait a few months before pulling the trigger?

You know....do things like make sure Russia isn't just gonna plow through Ukraine, and take control of these missiles? Or: can we trust Zelensky's army to use them properly? Or: will this provoke a nuclear armed Putin to act rashly if we show we're all-in just weeks into the conflict? Or, or, or.....

And you'd be on here, telling me all this, if Biden was a R. Instead, you're telling me that he should have given them Patriots months ago. It's so transparently stupid.

[MDlaxfan76]

A-10 Warthog?

BBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Be amusing to see how the Russian's "Maginot" line holds up to that flying 30mm gatling gun. Throw in a few depleted uranium rounds for shites and giggles. Too bad the Russian version probably isn't airworthy or has no pilots.

Ukraine needs to drag the Russian dciks in the dirt for a long time so they never try it again.

A-10's are great in uncontested airspace, but they'd suffer the same fate as Ukraine's SU-25's against Russia's air defense system.

Soviet legacy air defense systems, employed by both sides, own the skies.
That's why we haven't sent A-10's, Predator/Reaper drones or any other aircraft. We're sending air defense systems instead.

Sure about that? How is Ukraine striking inside Russia?

That's not in the airspace over Ukraine where Russian forces are in the field, where the A-10 would operate.

Russia has the S-400 in Crimea & on ships in the Black Sea & medium/short range air defense systems in the field with their forces in Ukraine.

Certainly seem like ideal targets for offensive weapons to strike. What are the best weapons technologies and systems for doing so? What would the US do with our own arsenal if we needed to do so to retake our territory as swiftly as possible?

[old salt]

I'm giving Biden credit for FINALLY doing this . ...it's just 6 mos too late. I want the war ended asap & this will help/

Exactly what I've been saying: you want Biden to be PERFECT. In your world, he and his advisors aren't allowed to think, or consider options and the consequences of their actions. He has to shoot first, think later, and if he doesn't, you're all over him.

How many times have you mocked me, saying "the perfect is the enemy of the good".

It's far from perfect. It's late. Look at the damage inflicted upon Ukraine while this decision was deferred.

And you're gonna pretend you're too dumb to understand why he'd wait a few months before pulling the trigger?

You know....do things like make sure Russia isn't just gonna plow through Ukraine, and take control of these missiles? Or: can we trust Zelensky's army to use them properly? Or: will this provoke a nuclear armed Putin to act rashly if we show we're all-in just weeks into the conflict? Or, or, or.....

And you'd be on here, telling me all this, if Biden was a R. Instead, you're telling me that he should have given them Patriots months ago. It's so transparently stupid.

DoD was opposed (& probably still is) to sending the Patriot, though the chances of them falling into Russian hands ended months ago when the Ukrainians started their counteroffensive. We offered Patriots to backfill NATO allies who would provide their S-300's & other Soviet legacy air defense sysyems. When it became obvious that would not be sufficient, that would have been the time to commit to sending the Patriot & begin training the Ukrainian crews.

[old salt]

A-10 Warthog?

BBBBBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Be amusing to see how the Russian's "Maginot" line holds up to that flying 30mm gatling gun. Throw in a few depleted uranium rounds for shites and giggles. Too bad the Russian version probably isn't airworthy or has no pilots.

Ukraine needs to drag the Russian dciks in the dirt for a long time so they never try it again.

A-10's are great in uncontested airspace, but they'd suffer the same fate as Ukraine's SU-25's against Russia's air defense system.

Soviet legacy air defense systems, employed by both sides, own the skies.
That's why we haven't sent A-10's, Predator/Reaper drones or any other aircraft. We're sending air defense systems instead.

Sure about that? How is Ukraine striking inside Russia?

That's not in the airspace over Ukraine where Russian forces are in the field, where the A-10 would operate.

Russia has the S-400 in Crimea & on ships in the Black Sea & medium/short range air defense systems in the field with their forces in Ukraine.

Certainly seem like ideal targets for offensive weapons to strike. What are the best weapons technologies and systems for doing so? What would the US do with our own arsenal if we needed to do so to retake our territory as swiftly as possible?

Wave's of cruise missiles followed by airstrikes using stealth & jamming aircraft firing HARM missiles. We would take losses.

[a fan]

DoD was opposed (& probably still is) to sending the Patriot,

Thank you!!!! Since even I understand that, it should be EASY for you to both understand and acknowledge that.

ASSUMING (big assumption) you think that the US should have gotten involved in this, and armed the Ukrainians? Biden's played this war as perfectly as possible.

Heck, give credit to the DoD and don't mention Biden if it helps you swallow that pill. Works for me. OF COURSE everyone wishes the war was over, or that there was less death and destruction...or that Putin left Ukraine alone entirely.

But Biden has played the sh*t hand he was dealt damn near perfectly, given all the ridiculous constraints he's dealing with here.

[old salt]

Could you share with us any posts 6 months or longer ago when you were saying we should send them Patriots asap?

I don't recall them, but I'm getting old and foggy at times.

My recollection is more that you were in the camp of not sending more of our highest tech military capabilities, that such would be 'provocative' etc, etc I realize that you may have been talking more about offensive weaponry (I was arguing that such was needed to actually beat back Russia and ultimately force them out) but I don't recall calls from you re Patriot systems.

I never thought Biden would buck DoD on this, which is why I was for giving them to NATO allies to backfill for their S-300's & other Soviet legacy air defense systems. They're not provocative. They're defensive only. They can't strike into Russia like cruise missiles or our drones could. The drones are the technology we don't want compromised. The Patriots are mobile & far enough behind front lines that the odds of them being captured are minimal.

[old salt]

DoD was opposed (& probably still is) to sending the Patriot,

Thank you!!!! Since even I understand that, it should be EASY for you to both understand and acknowledge that.

ASSUMING (big assumption) you think that the US should have gotten involved in this, and armed the Ukrainians? Biden's played this war as perfectly as possible.

Heck, give credit to the DoD and don't mention Biden if it helps you swallow that pill. Works for me. OF COURSE everyone wishes the war was over, or that there was less death and destruction...or that Putin left Ukraine alone entirely.

But Biden has played the sh*t hand he was dealt damn near perfectly, given all the ridiculous constraints he's dealing with here.

My beef with Biden is promising an open ended blank check & not pushing Zelensky & Putin to the table & forcing Z to agree to an off ramp for Putin. Then let Turkey & France take the lead (& heat) for working the details. Let Erdogan take the blame for letting Putin off the hook.

[dislaxxic]

There seems to be a ton of posts by folks who may or may not welcome a crash course on the facts of history in the region. This has been a helpful conversation below for folks who think Putin just decided to start a war “unprovoked.” And while some may feel like they know everything already, I’d still encourage them to listen to a few folks with hundreds of years between them knowing what’s transpired. Just like Listening to the neocons in the current White House helps inform me!

https://youtu.be/uAKI8n4Us7E

That's a disturbing recital. MacGregor sounds sober enough until he starts to devolve into partisan blame/shame near the end.

The Russian "starting point" in this narrative is that their fears of having NATO on their borders is a legitimate fear. It may be legitimate in the mind of the individual dictator, Vlad. A threat to authoritarianism. What if Russia was a more western-like nation, in terms of governance, economy, international relations, etc? A bad thing? What do the actual Russian PEOPLE think of THAT possibility??

..

not trying to beat a dead horse but again, could you imagine if Canada and Mexico were in a military alliance with Russia and had missiles pointed at us? And Russia’s policy towards the US was regime change? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand why Putin believes the threat is real. The only way to win is by organizing people from where they are. And right now there’s such little respect I doubt we will ever get back to Obama years.

My quibble would be that Putin's "belief" is illegitimate. He's an authoritarian that doesn't care one whit about the country writ large, he cares about maintaining his own personal power...the power that has him absolutely slathered in corrupt riches. If Russia was an actual democracy, with systems and morals that conformed with western ones, there would be ZERO appetite in the west for any SORT of invading or moving aggressively against that country. They'd be welcomed warmly into the western league of cooperating nations.

In other words, he himself is creating a NATO boogeyman via which he directs his country's military to "protect" Mother Russia. Nope. They're being used to protect Father Vlad. That ain't RIGHT!

..

[MDlaxfan76]

Could you share with us any posts 6 months or longer ago when you were saying we should send them Patriots asap?

I don't recall them, but I'm getting old and foggy at times.

My recollection is more that you were in the camp of not sending more of our highest tech military capabilities, that such would be 'provocative' etc, etc I realize that you may have been talking more about offensive weaponry (I was arguing that such was needed to actually beat back Russia and ultimately force them out) but I don't recall calls from you re Patriot systems.

I never thought Biden would buck DoD on this, which is why I was for giving them to NATO allies to backfill for their S-300's & other Soviet legacy air defense systems. They're not provocative. They're defensive only. They can't strike into Russia like cruise missiles or our drones could. The drones are the technology we don't want compromised. The Patriots are mobile & far enough behind front lines that the odds of them being captured are minimal.

So, you didn't call for Patriots to Ukraine.
But thought sending to other NATO countries was fine...'cause it's ok if Ukraine falls, just not NATO countries...

Yup, I'm in the camp of providing Ukraine with the weaponry we would use to take back Ukraine's territory. Yes, they will have losses...they have a lot now. But winning this faster is better than slower.

Appeasement is not the answer, especially with these rationales of "it's really Russia anyway"...

[MDlaxfan76]

DoD was opposed (& probably still is) to sending the Patriot,

Thank you!!!! Since even I understand that, it should be EASY for you to both understand and acknowledge that.

ASSUMING (big assumption) you think that the US should have gotten involved in this, and armed the Ukrainians? Biden's played this war as perfectly as possible.

Heck, give credit to the DoD and don't mention Biden if it helps you swallow that pill. Works for me. OF COURSE everyone wishes the war was over, or that there was less death and destruction...or that Putin left Ukraine alone entirely.

But Biden has played the sh*t hand he was dealt damn near perfectly, given all the ridiculous constraints he's dealing with here.

My beef with Biden is promising an open ended blank check & not pushing Zelensky & Putin to the table & forcing Z to agree to an off ramp for Putin. Then let Turkey & France take the lead (& heat) for working the details. Let Erdogan take the blame for letting Putin off the hook.

You seriously think Putin could be pushed to the table? Not a chance.
He could be temporarily bought off, but he's the aggressor and that would be an enormous mistake with profound repercussions.