THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[HopFan16]

As I walked past the Hopkins bench on Sunday there was a player in street clothes with his shooting shirt on (jersey number in the 20;s on the sleeve of the shirt) - looked like Lyne maybe? So hurt again? If true kid has had an unbelievable run of bad luck. Maybe it was someone else - that's entirely possible. He was definitely a big tall young man.

That may have been Cam Hyde (#22) who is no longer on the playing roster but has still been with the team this year, and was honored on senior day.

I'm not sure I agree wholeheartedly with your observation that there's plenty of talent - there's always plenty of bodies - the talent level? Ehh. He gave Lily, Mabbett, Degnon some runs early in the year - they did nothing with them and as a group looked unfortunately slow. I will certainly question his use of Zinn. You put him on the wings of face-offs so you are willing to suffer with him playing defense but you don't like his 4 goals, speed and outside shot on offense? Must be a practice thing.

You can count the number of actual runs Lily and Mabbett have gotten on one hand. Degnon has not been given any opportunity whatsoever. The only time I remember seeing him was one or two shifts in the dying seconds of the 4th quarter in games that were already well over. According to the box scores, Lily and Mabbett appeared in the Syracuse and Delaware games, while Degnon did not. All three "appeared" in the Towson, MSM, and Michigan games.

I think McManus should be getting more shifts at SSDM. I don't think his defensive ability is that much of a drop-off from the other two, and if giving him a few more runs on D helps to keep those other guys fresh for the 4th quarter, then it's a trade-off you take, IMO.

I know that most teams exclusively play just 2 LSMs, so I'm not going to blame Reinson getting schooled by Jasinski on that one goal on tired legs but you would think that at some point over the course of the season that a 3rd LSM might see the field. Unlike the midfield, there actually is some depth at the pole on this team. A lot of it is inexperienced depth, but depth nonetheless.

[jhu06]

stevens bracketology

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... -win-socon

"Johns Hopkins has more opportunities left than just about anyone. The Blue Jays must go to Penn State and Maryland the next two weekends before a potential trip to the Big Ten tournament"

and my view on the current season right now- "was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbor?" (for the maryland/cuse grads the Japanese bombed pearl harbor)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE

[10stone5]

stevens bracketology

https://www.uslaxmagazine.com/college/m ... -win-socon

"Johns Hopkins has more opportunities left than just about anyone. The Blue Jays must go to Penn State and Maryland the next two weekends before a potential trip to the Big Ten tournament"

and my view on the current season right now- "was it over when the germans bombed pearl harbor?" (for the maryland/cuse grads the Japanese bombed pearl harbor)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q7vtWB4owdE

Hah !

So you’re telling me there’s a chance ?!

[51percentcorn]

Look - I am not going to argue that the offensive performance of the mid-fields has been anything more than poor - exacerbated by the incredible drop-off from DeSimone who I think - if the season was to be a golf par or birdie - had to take his mid-teen goal total as a freshmen into the low 20's not back to a virtually unimaginable 2. BUT - if you look at the roster - the only offensive middies who are not currently playing could be the following:
Hawley - tiny 155 lbs
Mabbet/Lilly/Degnon - essentially all the same guy 6'4" 210 lbs or thereabouts - played in 3-5 games - have virtually no stats - Mabbett and Lilly have taken 1 shot each

That's it - qualitatively - to my eye - the 3 "big" baby Jays are not exceptionally fast or quick - so I am not sure where the talent lies.
This all comes down for me - in terms of coaching decisions and roster construction - to two issues:
1. Zinn has speed/outside shooting speed and certainly some level of talent - he has doubled up DeSimone's goal production while only playing wing essentially - there has been harping on his defense but with wing play he's more likely to have to play defense than offense so he's the clear outlier to me in terms of puzzling utilization. Otherwise - don't see it.
2. How did you end up with virtually no upperclass true middies? There are absolutely none. That's THE issue to me

[primitiveskills]

2. How did you end up with virtually no upperclass true middies? There are absolutely none. That's THE issue to me

Correct. Barring grad transfer, doesn't look like much in the till for next year either. There are some talented kids (Angelus, Chauvette, Murphy), but more of the same (smallish dodgers). You'd have to think that Zinn gets more run, but unless there's considerable development of other guys on the bench, this is a problem for several more years.

[HopFan16]

2. How did you end up with virtually no upperclass true middies? There are absolutely none. That's THE issue to me

The combination of bad luck/lack of foresight is pretty remarkable. This senior class is supposed to have:

1) Lane Odom—not really an offensive middie but could have potentially helped at SSDM (and, perhaps, by extension allow Zinn to play more offense?)
2) Jack Olson—was never clear to me if they intended for him to play middie or take faceoffs but in any event he transferred to Michigan and is no longer on the roster there either
3) Drew Supinski—we all know what happened
4) Henry Grass—highly touted A/M hybrid, transferred to Cuse and lasted in that program for all of like two months

Something was in the water with that 2016 freshman class. Obviously if we get 4 healthy years out of Supinski things could be different. I don't know why the kid transferred to Denver but in retrospect it's clear to me at least they tried to rush him back in 2017 when he wasn't ready and that may have zapped his confidence. I recall the debates on LaxPower quite well about whether or not he should have been out there. Doesn't matter now.

A lot of people here were excited about Grass. Whoops.

And then you have Brendan O'Neill—he was not getting any playing time to begin with so it's not a shock to see him go but he would have been another upperclassman middie.

I don't know if this Ernst kid was given a roster spot purely for symbolic reasons or if they actually thought he might crack the lineup someday but he's listed at 6'1'' 205, prototypical size for a middie. Maybe they should throw him out there to see if the guy can do anything. If they let you put a Hopkins jersey on you must have SOME game.

With all due respect to Shack who had a wonderful career it's obvious that this team misses Joel Tinney more than anyone by a good margin. He impacted the game in so many ways, not least of all with his ability to break down defenses and make guys miss from the midfield. The lack of any kind of dodging or shooting threat up top puts a lot of pressure on the attack. And it results in having to convert munchkin attackmen to middie where they're useless in transition/getting back to the hole to play D...which tends to happen a lot.

To make matters worse, one of our incoming midfield recruits (Cole Witman) recently announced he's playing at D2 Tampa instead.

[Wheels]

There's been a lot of round and round on this thread about the root cause of this middling team. Talent isn't the issue. The size and athleticism issue is only a problem on the defensive midfield. Lots of teams have smallish offensive midfielders or converted attack that haven't struggled like Hopkins has this year.

Like Denver, Hopkins has not adjusted its offense to the shot clock. The pieces in place on offense fit better in a pre-shot clock game. Marr is great at finding space off ball for step down shots. Williams needs time and room to dodge. The midfielders, regardless of size, can cut off-ball or run the alleys from up top.

With only one player who can really create for himself (Epstein) - and he's really being forced into a dual facilitator-scorer role in this offense, which is a lot to ask of a freshman - defenses can pack in more and defend the knowns of your offense. Let Williams take forever to sweep around or back down his defender...right into a double team. Take away Marr's space. Let the midfielders alley dodge down the hashmarks of the field. They're non-threats on the run from 15 yards out, and there's no need to slide to them.

Talent ain't the problem. An out-dated system is. And now you have to adapt as an offense with players who were recruited to fit into a different system. Imagine letting Epstein run a Penn State-style offense. Marr is the O'keefe equivalent. Run everyone else off of picks and screens. Now, it's a lot to ask of Epstein to have eyes in the back of his head like Ament, but that offense would be better than what your OC runs now. I suspect if Petro survives this year that he's going to dump his OC.

[HopFan16]

There's been a lot of round and round on this thread about the root cause of this middling team. Talent isn't the issue. The size and athleticism issue is only a problem on the defensive midfield. Lots of teams have smallish offensive midfielders or converted attack that haven't struggled like Hopkins has this year.

Like Denver, Hopkins has not adjusted its offense to the shot clock. The pieces in place on offense fit better in a pre-shot clock game. Marr is great at finding space off ball for step down shots. Williams needs time and room to dodge. The midfielders, regardless of size, can cut off-ball or run the alleys from up top.

With only one player who can really create for himself (Epstein) - and he's really being forced into a dual facilitator-scorer role in this offense, which is a lot to ask of a freshman - defenses can pack in more and defend the knowns of your offense. Let Williams take forever to sweep around or back down his defender...right into a double team. Take away Marr's space. Let the midfielders alley dodge down the hashmarks of the field. They're non-threats on the run from 15 yards out, and there's no need to slide to them.

Talent ain't the problem. An out-dated system is. And now you have to adapt as an offense with players who were recruited to fit into a different system. Imagine letting Epstein run a Penn State-style offense. Marr is the O'keefe equivalent. Run everyone else off of picks and screens. Now, it's a lot to ask of Epstein to have eyes in the back of his head like Ament, but that offense would be better than what your OC runs now. I suspect if Petro survives this year that he's going to dump his OC.

Some of this may ultimately be true, but the offense still managed to put up 13 against Ohio State. Scoring wasn't really the issue. It was the defense, which is giving up 13 per game. The Jays offense could certainly be better, but for me it's "good enough" to win games. The defense, right now, is not. In 4 of our 5 losses, the offense still got to double digits. It wasn't that long ago when a Petro-coached team won almost every game it played in which the offense got to 10 goals. Now if they score 10 it's almost certainly a loss. I don't really feel comfortable until we get to 15+ and even then, you never know. In those losses the defense has allowed 18, 14, 16, and 14 goals. Abysmal. Hard to blame that on Benson.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Why not recruit, per year:

2 outstanding hopefully can’t miss 9th graders
2 HS sophs
2 jrs
2 srs
+ 1 or 2 flex should an extra can’t miss person develops


Hell, our recruiting classes consist entirely of kids who haven’t even been PW yet. (EDIT: At the time of their recruitment.)

[Wheels]

Some of this may ultimately be true, but the offense still managed to put up 13 against Ohio State. Scoring wasn't really the issue. It was the defense, which is giving up 13 per game. The Jays offense could certainly be better, but for me it's "good enough" to win games. The defense, right now, is not. In 4 of our 5 losses, the offense still got to double digits. It wasn't that long ago when a Petro-coached team won almost every game it played in which the offense got to 10 goals. Now if they score 10 it's almost certainly a loss. I don't really feel comfortable until we get to 15+ and even then, you never know. In those losses the defense has allowed 18, 14, 16, and 14 goals. Abysmal. Hard to blame that on Benson.

You're right about getting to 10 in the past. The shot clock has changed that, though. For as seldom as I admit to agreeing with Quint, he's right about the Hop defense. They play way too much defense and get completely worn out. Some of that could be on the rope unit and small SSDMs. But with more possessions now from the shot clock, teams can't rest their defense by playing a ton of offense. Putting up a ton of goals in the first half doesn't have the staying power that it used to have.

Denver is getting exposed because they can't hog possessions. Their defense and goalie have been liabilities for years. Baptiste masked that. Without Tinney and Shack to draw slides and find skip passes, your offense takes too long to get going. With more possessions, your defense is wearing down. I think that explains a lot of the second half comebacks your opponents have mounted...not from a lack of adjustments on defense. Maybe it's a lack of adjustments on offense.

[51percentcorn]

I know a little bit about Olson - nothing specific about his situation - that's honest (I probably wouldn't say if I even knew) - but he was a do everything mid-fielder with Prep who also happened to face-off because Prep needed him to. He did not truly enjoy facing off and never considered himself a FOGO. His offensive constraint was he was beyond exclusively left-handed and likely didn't have that Canadian ability to survive with an uber dominant hand. His motor never stopped, however, and I would have penciled him in as a quality SSDM for 4 years. Maybe he didn't want to embrace that role - maybe he just became burned out - I don't know but it was unlikely he would have ever been a heavy component of the offensive diet.

Henry Grass - i always thought older brother Jack was the more mobile potential mid-fielder amongst the two. I thought Henry was more of a classic finishing attackman. Could be wrong - regardless - we didn't have too much luck with the Grass brothers.

Ernst almost has to be symbolic and it is clear O'Neill/Odom were never going to play offense. So again - even if Supinski was around - where are the other recruits?

To make matters worse, one of our incoming midfield recruits (Cole Witman) recently announced he's playing at D2 Tampa instead.

I have nothing against Cole Witman but why are matters worse? When Hopkins 2019 recruiting class stood at 20/21 kids - you had to know there was going to be attrition - either by the recruit's choosing or Hopkins laying out the reality of the situation. If I remember correctly, the big deal with Witman was his dad played in the NFL? And he was described as a classic "between the lines" middie? I read that as - not incredible offensive statistics (or if so questionable competition) - maybe has some athleticism. Going to D2 Tampa may suggest he didn't have alot of options. Again, no knowledge of the situation but maybe look for more folks to leave the class and it would have nothing to do with Hopkins current record. Hopkins senior class was small.

I like Wheels' observations but talent/roster construction is an issue IMO.

[primitiveskills]

The given reason is communication. No one has stepped up to take charge of the D, GK is quiet. When I watch I see what appears to be poor communication so that is part of it. I live a bit distant to drive up for a few practices and find out

The irony is that, at least in the past, the whole philosophy was to communicate/ slide effectively to limit lay-ups, encourage the opponent to take 12-15 yard shots, and have a goalie that could 1) communicate and 2) stop 12-15 yard shots. Ability to make showy in-close saves was completely optional. Now, apparently, we have the opposite.

[primitiveskills]

Why not recruit, per year:

2 outstanding hopefully can’t miss 9th graders
2 HS sophs
2 jrs
2 srs
+ 1 or 2 flex should an extra can’t miss person develops


Hell, our recruiting classes consist entirely of kids who haven’t even been PW yet. (EDIT: At the time of their recruitment.)

Well, those 9th and 10th graders would need to be "soft" commitments (i.e. violations). Will be interesting to see. Rules aside, simply no need to recruit early anymore. HS game is so big right now, you can afford to see how players look as juniors and make decisions then. Real problem is how to effectively scout. Club circuit and showcases aren't great indicators of how most kids will perform when they need to play real games against real competition.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Why not recruit, per year:

2 outstanding hopefully can’t miss 9th graders
2 HS sophs
2 jrs
2 srs
+ 1 or 2 flex should an extra can’t miss person develops


Hell, our recruiting classes consist entirely of kids who haven’t even been PW yet. (EDIT: At the time of their recruitment.)

Well, those 9th and 10th graders would need to be "soft" commitments (i.e. violations). Will be interesting to see. Rules aside, simply no need to recruit early anymore. HS game is so big right now, you can afford to see how players look as juniors and make decisions then. Real problem is how to effectively scout. Club circuit and showcases aren't great indicators of how most kids will perform when they need to play real games against real competition.

UVa and DBA have done a lot of things that screwed up Hopkins.

[wgdsr]

There's been a lot of round and round on this thread about the root cause of this middling team. Talent isn't the issue. The size and athleticism issue is only a problem on the defensive midfield. Lots of teams have smallish offensive midfielders or converted attack that haven't struggled like Hopkins has this year.

really? like who? who is loaded at the midfield with about only small, converted attackmen?

maryland has 2, one on each of the 1sts and 2nds... and a bunch of productive mids. o state has several. and a bunch of big dudes and canadians yale a couple. they all have actual middies playing.

lots?

With only one player who can really create for himself (Epstein) - and he's really being forced into a dual facilitator-scorer role in this offense, which is a lot to ask of a freshman - defenses can pack in more and defend the knowns of your offense. Let Williams take forever to sweep around or back down his defender...right into a double team. Take away Marr's space. Let the midfielders alley dodge down the hashmarks of the field. They're non-threats on the run from 15 yards out, and there's no need to slide to them.

Talent ain't the problem. An out-dated system is.

sooooo...... what do you consider talent?

[Wheels]

There's been a lot of round and round on this thread about the root cause of this middling team. Talent isn't the issue. The size and athleticism issue is only a problem on the defensive midfield. Lots of teams have smallish offensive midfielders or converted attack that haven't struggled like Hopkins has this year.

really? like who? who is loaded at the midfield with about only small, converted attackmen?

maryland has 2, one on each of the 1sts and 2nds... and a bunch of productive mids. o state has several. and a bunch of big dudes and canadians yale a couple. they all have actual middies playing.

lots?

With only one player who can really create for himself (Epstein) - and he's really being forced into a dual facilitator-scorer role in this offense, which is a lot to ask of a freshman - defenses can pack in more and defend the knowns of your offense. Let Williams take forever to sweep around or back down his defender...right into a double team. Take away Marr's space. Let the midfielders alley dodge down the hashmarks of the field. They're non-threats on the run from 15 yards out, and there's no need to slide to them.

Talent ain't the problem. An out-dated system is.

sooooo...... what do you consider talent?

Penn State doesn't run many huge midfielders. If I'm not mistaken, neither does Loyola. Cornell has a mix, so does Yale. Denver has a mix. OSU flips LeClaire and Jasinsky between A and M. On Maryland's first line, the only true midfielder is Snider. Bubba and DeMaio are converted attackmen. Long on their second line is a converted attackman. Masci and Zawadzki are midfielders.

But if you read what I said, I said smallish midfielder OR converted attack. JHU's issue is that the talent they have doesn't match the system they're trying to run, especially in the shot clock era.

[Big Dog]

to keep legs fresh, gotta rotate bench players in more often. But if they are inexperienced, that means a higher chance of a turnover or goal given up.

I know this thread had a long discussion earlier about keeping the big rivalry games (for posterity?). Personally, I think it's time to drop one or two in favor of some cupcakes. (Playing a cupcake doesn't seem to hurt Alabama's football rankings, nor has it hurt High Point's lofty lax rankings.) Sometimes you just need wins; a win over a cupcake can be better than losing top-ranked team week after week. But more importantly, the cupcakes allow the starters to rest, particularly the grinding positions like FO, while giving the second team some real game experience. A losing record with the #1 SoS is worthless.

Forget the home-and-home, why not invite new D1 entrants to visit Homewood?

[primitiveskills]

There's been a lot of round and round on this thread about the root cause of this middling team. Talent isn't the issue. The size and athleticism issue is only a problem on the defensive midfield. Lots of teams have smallish offensive midfielders or converted attack that haven't struggled like Hopkins has this year.

really? like who? who is loaded at the midfield with about only small, converted attackmen?

maryland has 2, one on each of the 1sts and 2nds... and a bunch of productive mids. o state has several. and a bunch of big dudes and canadians yale a couple. they all have actual middies playing.

lots?

With only one player who can really create for himself (Epstein) - and he's really being forced into a dual facilitator-scorer role in this offense, which is a lot to ask of a freshman - defenses can pack in more and defend the knowns of your offense. Let Williams take forever to sweep around or back down his defender...right into a double team. Take away Marr's space. Let the midfielders alley dodge down the hashmarks of the field. They're non-threats on the run from 15 yards out, and there's no need to slide to them.

Talent ain't the problem. An out-dated system is.

sooooo...... what do you consider talent?

Penn State doesn't run many huge midfielders. If I'm not mistaken, neither does Loyola. Cornell has a mix, so does Yale. Denver has a mix. OSU flips LeClaire and Jasinsky between A and M. On Maryland's first line, the only true midfielder is Snider. Bubba and DeMaio are converted attackmen. Long on their second line is a converted attackman. Masci and Zawadzki are midfielders.

But if you read what I said, I said smallish midfielder OR converted attack. JHU's issue is that the talent they have doesn't match the system they're trying to run, especially in the shot clock era.

I agree that its not so much size but skill set. You need guys that are a threat from beyond 10 yards. Hopkins has Epstein and Marr; that's it. And Epstein comes with an asterisk since ideally he's a dodger/facilitator; hard to be both at the same time. Last year worked because of Fraser and Tinney. They weren't replaced. And unless Zinn steps up, next year is worse.

[HopFan16]

To make matters worse, one of our incoming midfield recruits (Cole Witman) recently announced he's playing at D2 Tampa instead.

I have nothing against Cole Witman but why are matters worse? When Hopkins 2019 recruiting class stood at 20/21 kids - you had to know there was going to be attrition - either by the recruit's choosing or Hopkins laying out the reality of the situation. If I remember correctly, the big deal with Witman was his dad played in the NFL? And he was described as a classic "between the lines" middie? I read that as - not incredible offensive statistics (or if so questionable competition) - maybe has some athleticism. Going to D2 Tampa may suggest he didn't have alot of options. Again, no knowledge of the situation but maybe look for more folks to leave the class and it would have nothing to do with Hopkins current record. Hopkins senior class was small.

Matters are worse because he was one of only a few guys in the upcoming class even listed as a midfielder. This is what we’re looking at:

Brett Handsor—plays on the wings for Culver. Projects as an SSDM
Quinn Chambers—pretty sure he’s already playing SSDM for Episcopal, recall Xanders or someone calling him “the best defensive middie in PA” or something
John Schreiber—switched from Princeton to us, his dad is an alum. Don’t know anything about him other than that
Edward Glassmeyer—athletic two-way middie, more likely to play wings/SSDM than offense IMO
Jacob Brunner—from Colorado, don’t know anything else about him. Fingers crossed he’s the next Rabil

Sounds like they are trying to address the SSDM issue but I don’t see much help coming in the way of offensive-minded middies who can dodge and shoot. The 2020 class might have a few. I have no idea if highly touted guys like Murphy can play midfield. Angelus is a classic X attackman. Someone mentioned Chauvette—pretty sure he’s not coming till 2020. He’s also an attackman through and through.

[WOMBAT, Mod Emeritus]

Massey ranking score predictions for the next two weeks.

15-11 loss
12-10 loss