D1 Men Rankings

[NYSection1]

Ultimately, it is a choice made by the coaches and the individual conferences. If there is a will, there is a way. Mike Corrado made it a focal point of his coaching philosophy to schedule games against strong non-conferences. This year, the 'Cats played 7 non-conference games: Maryland and Penn State from the Big10, Yale and Penn from the Ivies, and UDel, Drexel and Fairfield from the CAA.

[runrussellrun]

Was pointing out a possible flaw in the Carberry/Z ratings that included an overall conference metric for non conference wins. Overall.
Sorry to assume that you guys had read the zratings link included in the post. and how the Z ratings arrive at their rankings. How this metric is, compared to RPI.

Sometimes the 1% smart guy holds the wheel, until the 99% mental bull in a china shop comes back with beers. But, the smart thoughts are incomplete by the beer arrival of 99%, but like toothpaste, the thoughts can't be put back. Only the 99% bull-shop thinks it can. By putting the thought out there. Unintelliglible.

In other words, thank you for the lessons in how conferences work. And think, for a moment, that if ALL acc basketball conference schools had lacrosse, and so did the B1g, what would playing the new Georgia Tech, Wake Forest and VAtech do too the Wahoo's RPI ? You think Iowa and Indiana , when losing to Maryland......and B1G-ly, will consider those loses "good" ? Will the ncaa rules/criteria think so?

[calourie]

I'm pretty sure I don't get your point R3. If all ACC and BIG schools played lax, the 6 new ACCs (Ga Tech, Va Tech, Wake et al) or the Indians and Iowas etc. in the BIG would have a hard time winning many OOC games no matter what conference they played against which would of course lower the final season RPIs of the Dukes and Marylands for having beaten a bunch of in league "cupcakes". A loss to Duke or Maryland et al would then be less of a "good" loss in the metrics of all concerned. What's the problem, other than your bias that all leagues should be treated as equals which they aren't.

[CU77]

Was pointing out a possible flaw in the Carberry/Z ratings that included an overall conference metric for non conference wins. Overall.

This is not how the Z ratings work. They are the exact same thing as the KRACH ratings that I posted for several years at laxpower. Conferences do not enter into their computation in any way. Once the ratings are computed, Matt computes an expected winning percentage for games of a given team against all possible non-conference opponents. But that number does not enter into the computation of the ratings.

[runrussellrun]

Was pointing out a possible flaw in the Carberry/Z ratings that included an overall conference metric for non conference wins. Overall.

This is not how the Z ratings work. They are the exact same thing as the KRACH ratings that I posted for several years at laxpower. Conferences do not enter into their computation in any way. Once the ratings are computed, Matt computes an expected winning percentage for games of a given team against all possible non-conference opponents. But that number does not enter into the computation of the ratings.

So this column is just for shirts and gaggles, not computed into the overall ranking?

nCWP/nDWP non-(Conference/Division) Winning Percentage: a team's expected winning percentage in an equal number of games against every other team in the group, except for the other teams in its own conference.

[CU77]

So this column is just for shirts and gaggles, not computed into the overall ranking?

nCWP/nDWP non-(Conference/Division) Winning Percentage: a team's expected winning percentage in an equal number of games against every other team in the group, except for the other teams in its own conference.

Exactly.

[admin]

D1 MEN: RoMo beat Lehigh, Notre Dame beat Marquette, and we shifted our Computer Ranking metric from Normalized Top Wins to Normalized All Wins.

[admin]

Don't know where to put this so I'm putting it here.

D1 MEN: Yesterday, relatively quietly, the biggest upset thus far this season happened.

[stupefied]

Don't know where to put this so I'm putting it here.

D1 MEN: Yesterday, relatively quietly, the biggest upset thus far this season happened.

Are all weeks weighted equally or are opening weeks when upsets were prevalent somewhat discounted by model?

[Drcthru]

I'm sorry, I just don't see Rutgers as the #19 ranked squad at all. They certainly have the talent to be a top 20 team, but they are 6-5. And as a wise man once said, "You are what your record says you are." And the fact is, it's true, they are a very mediocre team

The win over Ohio State last week was really impressive. But their other five wins were against injured or just very mediocre teams. And their losses for the most part were not too competitive. The Hopkins game on Saturday was never really close. Hell, they even lost to Army who for some reason is ranked behind them. In the end it is all meaningless, but it makes you wonder how accurate these polls really are.

I'd put both Army and UMass (7-4) with three one-goal losses (Yale, Hofstra and Army) ahead of them.

I'll be happy to admit I was wrong if they somehow win 2 of the next three games (MD, Michigan, Penn State). But they are staring at a a 7-7 record this year and another missed NCAA tournament. It's a shame because I have pulled for this team to break through every year. They are LOADED with talent - Charalambides, Rose, Mullins, Gallagher, Coyne, Pless, Bullett Michaeli and arguably the best goalie in D1, Max Edelmann (.603) - but don't play like a great team.

My $.02

Brecht? Career Record 116-102 .532
Rutgers Record 51-53 .490
Big Ten Record (Four Seasons) 8-12 .400

[admin]

Are all weeks weighted equally or are opening weeks when upsets were prevalent somewhat discounted by model?

All weeks are equal but... typically, for the later games, teams have more Points.

[Cooter]

Sort of a Mass beat Baltimore day:
UMass 14 Towson 10
Boston U 18 Loyola 11

That will shake things up a bit.

[Cooter]

Duke knocks off UVa 12-7

[admin]

D1 MEN: With a difference of 415 Points, BU beating Loyola was a big upset but, strangely, this season, 13 others were bigger. So Loyola dropped 3 spots, BU jumped up 7, PSU is running away from the pack, and... Computer Rankings and Game Results updated.

[admin]

D1 MEN: Today, Cornell beat Notre Dame, Ohio State beat Johns Hopkins, Maryland beat Rutgers (and moved to #2), and... Computer Rankings updated.

[Cooter]

With Loyola losing, UMd should move up to 2, and with UVa losing, Yale probably moves to 3, Duke to 4 with win over UVa.
Then you have the problem of comparing Loyola and Virginia to Penn and OSU.
Loyola's loss was to a non-top 20 team BU. Several laxpower posters were claiming BU was essentially a "cake" win for OSU early this season.
1 Penn State
2 Maryland
3 Yale
4 Duke
5 Penn
6 Virginia
7 Ohio State
8 Loyola
9 Syracuse
10 Cornell

[admin]

Cooter: the computer agrees with you (pretty closely).

1 Penn State 2,124 11 10
2 Maryland 1,907 12 10
3 Yale 1,904 10 8
4 Duke 1,835 13 10
5 Penn 1,830 10 7
6 Virginia 1,807 12 9
7 Syracuse 1,791 11 8
8 Ohio State 1,774 10 8
9 Loyola 1,738 11 8
10 High Point 1,665 12 10

[Farfromgeneva]

With Loyola losing, UMd should move up to 2, and with UVa losing, Yale probably moves to 3, Duke to 4 with win over UVa.
Then you have the problem of comparing Loyola and Virginia to Penn and OSU.
Loyola's loss was to a non-top 20 team BU. Several laxpower posters were claiming BU was essentially a "cake" win for OSU early this season.
1 Penn State
2 Maryland
3 Yale
4 Duke
5 Penn
6 Virginia
7 Ohio State
8 Loyola
9 Syracuse
10 Cornell

I don’t recall people saying Bu was cake, feel free to spend time finding properly contextualized quotes to the contrary, but we’re simply pointing out in the first 1-1.5mo of the season that OSUs win profile wasn’t nearly as good as others. Obviously as the season changes we see things like Colgate as now a 3 win season and BU w 9 wins (and 4 losses) so the perspectives changes.

That being said, I don’t see OSUs top wins against Bu, umass, Nd & JHU as better than UVA, Hop, GT & Lehigh. If we’re going to use the BU common opponent, the. We should note that OsU scraped by JHU Where Loyola emasculates them and throw in the RU results. I’m no Loyola booster but might note Loyola lost this game after games against lehigh and GTown (midweek) before making the trip to boston aa a factor.

To me Loyola still should be above OSU

[Cooter]

Coaches Rankings:
1 Penn State (19) 380 10-1 1
2 Maryland 350 10-2 3
3 Duke 336 10-3 6
4 Yale 320 8-2 5
5 Penn 298 7-3 7
6 Virginia 273 9-3 4
7 Ohio State 250 8-2 8
8 Loyola Maryland 248 9-3 2
9 Syracuse 242 8-3 11
10 Cornell 223 8-4 10
11 Notre Dame 158 6-5 12
12 Denver 153 7-4 13
13 Towson 146 7-4 9
13 HighPoint 146 10-2 14
15 Massachusetts 94 8-4 NR
16 Johns Hopkins 81 6-5 15
17 Army West Point 79 9-3 20
18 Boston University 61 9-4 NR
19 Georgetown 38 9-4 NR
20 Villanova 36 7-5 16

Others receiving votes: Delaware, 23; North Carolina, 17; Rutgers, 16; Lehigh,10; Air Force, 2.

[Cooter]

I don’t recall people saying Bu was cake, feel free to spend time finding properly contextualized quotes to the contrary, but we’re simply pointing out in the first 1-1.5mo of the season that OSUs win profile wasn’t nearly as good as others. Obviously as the season changes we see things like Colgate as now a 3 win season and BU w 9 wins (and 4 losses) so the perspectives changes.

That being said, I don’t see OSUs top wins against Bu, umass, Nd & JHU as better than UVA, Hop, GT & Lehigh. If we’re going to use the BU common opponent, the. We should note that OsU scraped by JHU Where Loyola emasculates them and throw in the RU results. I’m no Loyola booster but might note Loyola lost this game after games against lehigh and GTown (midweek) before making the trip to boston aa a factor.

To me Loyola still should be above OSU

I would remind you that at this earlier time, of which we our speaking off, Ohio State was undefeated - while other teams had losses. Certainly, people were discounting OSU wins over BU and UMass as worth little at the time.

Again, you forgetting about the losses now, Loyola has 3 losses to OSU's 2. Perhaps, RU and BU tend to soak off. Perhaps losses, to Duke for Loyola and PSU for OSU tend to equalize. But you still have the loss to Towson for Loyola.