2019 Bracketology Thread

[TheBigIguana]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field with a month left... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/YYIN35B

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Syracuse)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Colonial: 2 (Delaware, Towson)
Ivy League: 2 (Pennsylvania, Yale)

With Delaware currently being in line for an AQ (per my stated criteria), the bubble is a spot below where it would be if Towson wins the Colonial.

I stand firm in my belief that High Point can no longer earn an at-large bid. I believe that we can just about add Denver to this group too... they have no margin for error remaining. The group of teams that seem to be in a position to reasonably grab an at-large spot is dwindling pretty quickly now.

Out of the teams currently on the outside looking in, I'd say Cornell, Hopkins, UNC, and Rutgers have chances left to majorly help their resumes. Most other teams currently on the wrong side of the bubble are counting on circumstances going their way (if they don't get an AQ).

Cornell @ Syracuse tomorrow is between my current first team out and last team in. This game could have huge implications come selection Sunday.

I don't think the Colonial will be a two bid league by the end of the year. Any losses Towson takes losing the AQ will drop them to the wrong side of the bubble. My guess is the last spot goes a second Big East team, another B1G Ten team, Cornell or is just lost to someone pulling an upset in a conference tourney.

[Noonan]

CAA only shot to get 2 teams is Towson goes 5-0 and loses final. Even then its not 100 percent.
It matters with other conferences and upsets in tourney play

[Hawkeye]

Yes, I agree that the CAA seems to be a likely one bid league by the end of the season, and I expect the projections to trend that way in coming weeks.

[Hawkeye]

Mid week projections that include some games that my last projection does not (Syracuse over Cornell is the big one)

IL: https://imgur.com/a/ipwm1U0
CC: https://imgur.com/a/ZDO1BiP

[Chousnake]

How do Ohio State (IL) or Hopkins get in over Cornell. Neither has an impressive win and both have worse losses.

[Big Dog]

How do Ohio State (IL) or Hopkins get in over Cornell.

Not to worry, Inside Lacrosse has all three of them out. Altho one of Hopkins or OSU should be back in after this Sunday.

But to answer your question, Cornell has 1 top 10 win while Hopkins has 2, and has a stronger RPI..

Per IL:
14. Johns Hopkins (6-4)
RPI: 11
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 10 Wins: None
Top 20 Wins: North Carolina, Rutgers

17. Cornell (7-4)
RPI: 15
Top 5 Wins: None
Top 10 Wins: None
Top 20 Wins: Towson

[laxreference]

In my projections, OSU and JHU both project to have their RPI rise by a few slots, where Cornell is projected to stay roughly the same even though they have a significantly better chance to win their league tournament.

OSU: projected final RPI 9.4 - probability of winning Big Ten Tournament - 7.3% - overall chance of getting in 69.4%
Hopkins: projected final RPI 9.4 - probability of winning Big Ten Tournament - 5.5% - overall chance of getting in 70.8%
Cornell: projected final RPI 14.4 - probability of winning Big Ten Tournament - 18.1% - overall chance of getting in 27.8%

Cornell can't really afford to lose any regular season games, but especially today against ND. In simulations where they win this game, they get in 35.6% of the time. In sims where they lose, it's just 17.8%.

[CU77]

Hmm … I think the probability of Cornell winning the Big Ten Tournament is much closer to 0% …

[laxreference]

Hmm … I think the probability of Cornell winning the Big Ten Tournament is much closer to 0% …

Touche...

[Wheels]

Okay...I think I got the selection committee's release in the right order. I didn't write it down and was trying to get this typed before I forgot!! With Towson and Loyola losing, these rankings are already obsolete. Forgive me if I got some of the ordering incorrect.

1) Penn St
2) Duke
3) Loyola
4) Yale
5) Virginia
6) Penn
7) Maryland
8 Towson
9) Ohio St
10) Notre Dame

[calourie]

I think it went Virginia 4, Penn 5, Yale 6, and then my computer went into searching for internet mode

[Wheels]

Classic example of primacy and recency effect for me...got the first few and the last few...and the middle all jumbled up!

[AreaLax]

Committee Top-10 Rankings (for games through 4/7)

1. PennStateMLAX
2. DukeMLAX
3. LoyolaMLAX
4. UVAMensLax
5. PennMensLax
6. YaleMLacrosse
7. Maryland MLax
8. Towson_MLAX
9. OhioStateMLAX
10. NDlacrosse

[QuakerSouth]

Didn't Loyola lose today? To BU?

And didn't UVa lose today to Duke?

Lose and stay put? Or even move up?

[Wheels]

Didn't Loyola lose today? To BU?

And didn't UVa lose today to Duke?

Lose and stay put? Or even move up?

Their first rankings came out before any of the game. Expect Loyola, Towson, and UVA to all drop.

[laxreference]

4 games today, all with varying degrees of NCAA tournament impacts:

Notre Dame vs Cornell

For ND:

They get a bid to the tournament 96.9% of the time with a win vs 64.3% of the time if they lose to Cornell. With a win, they are projected to get a home-game 67.4% of the time. With a loss, it's just 26.3%.

For Cornell:

They get a bid to the tournament 42.5% of the time with a win vs 19.3% of the time if they lose to the Irish. With a win, they are projected to get a home-game 8.9% of the time. With a loss, it's just 0.3%. Cornell's potential NCAA bid is an at-large bid in 25.9% of the simulations where they win this game vs 2.7% if they lose. Basically, a loss here means no at-large for Cornell.

Johns Hopkins vs Ohio State

For Hopkins:

They get a bid to the tournament 57.6% of the time with a win vs 15.8% of the time if they lose. With a win, they are projected to get a home-game 53.2% of the time. With a loss, it's just 14.0%.


For Ohio State:

They get a bid to the tournament 95.2% of the time with a win vs 50.9% of the time if they lose. With a win, they are projected to get a home-game 65.9% of the time. With a loss, it's just 18.2%.

A lot of the signs point to this being a virtual elimination game in a lot of ways. Whoever wins has a better than even shot at a home-game in the NCAAs, the loser is basically grasping at straws from that perspective. But at the same time, it's bigger for JHU, largely because of their remaining schedule. A loss here makes losses in their next two games more probable, and that would really hurt their chances of getting a big to the tournament at all.

Georgetown vs Villanova

For Georgetown:

Georgetown comes into this one with their NCAA tournament hopes right where they were last year: resting on a run through the Big East tournament. They did win the Big East in 12.5% of the simulations, but as far as at-large stuff, this game is meaningless to them.

For Villanova:

The Wildcats are still alive for an at-large berth (10.3% chance). The simulator also gives them about a 22.4% chance to win the conference tournament, so their overall odds are sitting at 32.7%

Rutgers vs Maryland

For Rutgers:

Rutgers is in a tough spot, NCAA-wise. Even if they beat the Terps, they are only at a 10.9% to make the field. If they lose this game, they have zero shot at an at-large, and their entire 2.7% chance rests on getting into and then winning the Big Ten tournament.

For Maryland:

A win against Rutgers would basically clinch a bid for the Terps. They would have a 98.5% chance. If they lose to Rutgers, they are still in pretty good shape with an 88.4% chance to be in the field. For the Terps, the big thing in this game is pushing closer to locking down a home-game in the first round. With a win, their chance of that would be 88.2%; with a loss, it would be down to 56.8%, basically a toss-up.



If you are curious about the simulator or how these estimates came to be, check this post out. If you want to see the current projections (updated after each game), they are here .

[calourie]

If the selection committee's rankings move uniformly the new top six this week will be:

1. Penn State
2. Duke
3. Penn
4. Yale
5. Maryland
6. Ohio State

with perhaps UVA, Loyola and Syracuse currently vying for the last two seed spots. A ton of meaningful regular season and conference playoff games to go so no need for despair on anyone's part just yet. There does seem to be a bit of an eye-test factor in the committee's early rankings as opposed to straight forward statistical analysis which may please some and upset others, but I think by selection Sunday the seedings will make reasonably compelling sense.

[Hawkeye]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field with 3 weeks left... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/iFSlnm2

Bids by conference in my current projection:
ACC: 4 (Duke, Virginia, Syracuse, Notre Dame)
Big Ten: 3 (Penn State, Maryland, Ohio State)
Ivy League: 3 (Pennsylvania, Yale, Cornell)

The Colonial is now almost certainly a one bid league following Towson's loss to UMass. High Point has taken the lead in the SoCon and is currently in line for an AQ. I still do not believe they can earn an at-large bid.

I have introduced a new "status" of "Lock" for teams as of this week. I believe that these teams have done enough to assure themselves of an at-large bid and cannot fall out of the tournament no matter what they do from here on out. In addition to the teams that I currently have in this category as at-larges, I also think Penn State and Pennsylvania have clinched tournament berths. Loyola is getting very close... I think they can afford one more loss. If they win out the rest of the regular season (Army and Lafayette), they are in no matter what happens in the Patriot League tournament.

Of the teams currently sitting on the outside, I would say that Hopkins and UNC are the only ones with substantial enough schedules left to control their own destiny as far as playing into an at-large, and neither has much room for error left. I would say that both need 2 wins from here on out to earn an at-large bid.
For Hopkins that would be two of these three: @PSU, @Maryland, vs. likely PSU/UMCP again in the first round of the Big Ten tournament
For UNC that would be two of these three: @Notre Dame, ACC tournament (either 1 or 2 wins here depending on what happens @UND)

I think everyone else is either playing for an AQ or needs help in the form of other at-large teams slipping up.

[laxreference]

How I currently see the NCAA tournament field with a month left... if the tournament started today:
https://imgur.com/a/iFSlnm2

Great stuff Hawkeye. The projection model agrees in most cases, but there are a few points where my results differ from your assessment:

1. Colonial being a one-bid league

In the specific scenario where UMass beats Towson in the CAA Finals, the model gives Towson a better than even-odds shot at an at-large bid (71.7% of the simulations). Alternatively, in cases where Towson wins 3 straight and loses to any team in the CAA Finals, they get in 91.2% of the time. The average final RPI for Towson across all simulations is 11.5, so in the more favorable scenarios, their resume is certainly in the conversation.

2. Bubble-out teams with a shot

I agree that both Hopkins and UNC still have a fighting chance at an at-large bid. The only add I would have is that if you are going to say UNC has a chance, then Villanova also has to be considered alive. Now part of the reason I say that is that the model is not giving UNC much of a chance at grabbing those next two wins (just a 16.7% chance to beat ND and win the play-in game).

Compare that with Villanova. The model thinks they have a 30% to win their next 3 (Prov, StJ, BE Semis). In 18.7% of the sims, they win these three and then lose in the Big East finals. They get selected in 10.7% of those scenarios. So I wouldn't count out the Wildcats just yet.

Overall, in the simulations, here are the average number of slots that each conference ended up with:

Conference - # Slots
Atlantic Coast Conference - 3.68
Big Ten - 3.07
Ivy League - 2.42
Patriot League - 1.44
Colonial Athletic Association - 1.31
Big East Conference - 1.08


Northeast Conference - 1
Southern - 1
America East Conference - 1
Metro Atlantic Athletic - 1
Total - 17

Again, not far off from what you've got. If any wants to know the detail behind any of the team's resume projections, happy to share.

[Hawkeye]

2. Bubble-out teams with a shot

I agree that both Hopkins and UNC still have a fighting chance at an at-large bid. The only add I would have is that if you are going to say UNC has a chance, then Villanova also has to be considered alive.

Ah, I actually agree with you on this one. I wasn't including/forgot about Villanova because they are currently in line for an AQ. But, yes, I agree that they could end up in the at-large conversation if they end up not winning the Big East.