Johns Hopkins 2023

[Sagittarius A*]

In addition to DeSo and Epstein, the Jays are also losing Keogh; so that's actually almost half their point production from last year.
If you look Terry Foy's way-to-early projections:

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... time/60291

the Jays would be underdogs in 12 of 14 games next year.
If I assign a 45% win probability for the 12 games, and 55% win probability for the 2 other games, this projects out to 6.5 wins.
Getting to .500 next season could be a real challenge.

(I think) The argument for optimism that he and hf16 and maybe 51 are making is that the asset that 2022 has that 2020 and 2021 didn't have is "Time"-that PM and Jameson have now had over the last few years to begin to build their vision. That's about all I'm leaning on for hope right now. We crashed hard, we burned harder, they began to clean out the wreckage and now we're looking up.

Yes, but at some point blind optimism has to confront harsh reality.

[HopFan16]

In addition to DeSo and Epstein, the Jays are also losing Keogh; so that's actually almost half their point production from last year.
If you look Terry Foy's way-to-early projections:

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... time/60291

the Jays would be underdogs in 12 of 14 games next year.
If I assign a 45% win probability for the 12 games, and 55% win probability for the 2 other games, this projects out to 6.5 wins.
Getting to .500 next season could be a real challenge.

(I think) The argument for optimism that he and hf16 and maybe 51 are making is that the asset that 2022 has that 2020 and 2021 didn't have is "Time"-that PM and Jameson have now had over the last few years to begin to build their vision. That's about all I'm leaning on for hope right now. We crashed hard, we burned harder, they began to clean out the wreckage and now we're looking up.

06 as the voice of reason. It truly is End Times.

I'm not optimistic or pessimistic. I'm trying to be realistic. Epstein, DeSimone, and Keogh contributed a ton to this program but these were not All-Americans in 2022. You're swapping out a top 6 of DeSo, Epstein, Keogh, Degnon, Angelus, Peshko for (and I'm just spitballing here) a top 6 of Degnon, Angelus, Melendez, Peshko, a healthy Grimes, and let's say one of Collison/Marquis/English. Degnon was our best and most important player and he's back. And then you have Maher, maybe McDermott is healthier?, etc. It's not much of a stretch to say the new group will be more effective. I'm not guaranteeing anything — I don't know what the hell is going to happen. Just saying, it's not exactly a quantum leap. The offense stank last year. They've got some guys who are intriguing and a new coordinator who by several accounts, the players like. Let's see.

Projecting underdogs/favorites in October is a fool's errand. Yes, the schedule is hard. They won 4 in 2021, 7 last year with a similarly difficult schedule. Are they a lock to continue that progression and win more than 7 games in 2023? Of course not. Is there a reason why they can't? I don't see one. Narewski will also be back healthy (one assumes) and I can't see the goaltending being a whole lot worse so even absent an offensive improvement, the team can still do better than last year based on the strength of its FO unit and an improving defense. They are not a title contender. Are the playoffs out of the question? Again...we'll see.

[Ruffled_Feathers]

Yeah I'm definitely coming into the season with the intention of being optimistic about things on the offensive end but we'll see how quickly my hopes are dashed in this regard. Expectations are certainly low but hope is high. To be concerned over the losses from last season is foolish. While what has been lost may on paper have been more "talented" what that really means is name recognizable. The actual ultimate on field result last year was kind of a complete disaster. Thinking we could better that performance with this years roster having some new faces, some better health/a year older, and a new coordinator directing things is not out of the question but it also isn't a guarantee.

[AreaLax]

Late pickup addition to its ‘23 class by snagging former Harvard verbal Max McCarthy

McCarthy, who is PGing at Taft - close defenseman as a senior. Fluid 6-1, 180-pounder

[MDlaxfan76]

Late pickup addition to its ‘23 class by snagging former Harvard verbal Max McCarthy

McCarthy, who is PGing at Taft - close defenseman as a senior. Fluid 6-1, 180-pounder

Strange timing...but right now is just after when applications have been submitted and read in the Ivies.

[Sagittarius A*]

Yeah I'm definitely coming into the season with the intention of being optimistic about things on the offensive end but we'll see how quickly my hopes are dashed in this regard. Expectations are certainly low but hope is high. To be concerned over the losses from last season is foolish. While what has been lost may on paper have been more "talented" what that really means is name recognizable. The actual ultimate on field result last year was kind of a complete disaster. Thinking we could better that performance with this years roster having some new faces, some better health/a year older, and a new coordinator directing things is not out of the question but it also isn't a guarantee.

Big names or little names, it's still points walking out the door.
Teams can just focus on Degnon and Angelus now. If they can shut them down, they curtail the offense unless younger players can step up.
I can envision some low scoring affairs next year.
If Nawreski is healthy, then faceoffs should improve next year, but it won't matter unless the team's offensive efficiency improves.
Also, clearing needs to improve and turnovers need to drop.
If all those things happen AND they get quality goal tending, then the Jays could punch above their weight next season and pull off some upsets.
They certainly aren't dodging anyone but if people are waiting for PM to get his recruits in the door, change the culture etc, expectations for 2023 should be tempered. 2024 is PM's make or break year, so that may be what he's shooting for IMO.

[jhu06]

Yeah I'm definitely coming into the season with the intention of being optimistic about things on the offensive end but we'll see how quickly my hopes are dashed in this regard. Expectations are certainly low but hope is high. To be concerned over the losses from last season is foolish. While what has been lost may on paper have been more "talented" what that really means is name recognizable. The actual ultimate on field result last year was kind of a complete disaster. Thinking we could better that performance with this years roster having some new faces, some better health/a year older, and a new coordinator directing things is not out of the question but it also isn't a guarantee.

Big names or little names, it's still points walking out the door.
Teams can just focus on Degnon and Angelus now. If they can shut them down, they curtail the offense unless younger players can step up.
I can envision some low scoring affairs next year.
If Nawreski is healthy, then faceoffs should improve next year, but it won't matter unless the team's offensive efficiency improves.
Also, clearing needs to improve and turnovers need to drop.
If all those things happen AND they get quality goal tending, then the Jays could punch above their weight next season and pull off some upsets.
They certainly aren't dodging anyone but if people are waiting for PM to get his recruits in the door, change the culture etc, expectations for 2023 should be tempered. 2024 is PM's make or break year, so that may be what he's shooting for IMO.

All 6 wins of teams they beat last year who are on this years schedule are on the road. 6/8 home games are 2022 ncaa tournament teams and the 7th is unc. This could get ugly.

[HopFan16]

Big names or little names, it's still points walking out the door.

That's not necessarily how it works. It's not like the 109 pts those three players combined for just disappear and don't come back. There are several other factors you have to consider. For instance, those players combined to shoot about 20%. Not great. It's not straightforward. It's a new offense with several new faces and guys in bigger/smaller/different roles.

What would be concerning is if you're losing guys with irreplaceable skill sets — things that can't be replaced (or improved upon) via those new faces or the sum of the remaining parts. I'm not seeing that as being the case.

BTW, pretty much every team has "points walking out the door."

Teams can just focus on Degnon and Angelus now.

They were already doing that. Angelus was getting opposing teams' #1 defenseman. He and Degnon were the offense's top two options for the entire second half of the season.

[wgdsr]

Yeah I'm definitely coming into the season with the intention of being optimistic about things on the offensive end but we'll see how quickly my hopes are dashed in this regard. Expectations are certainly low but hope is high. To be concerned over the losses from last season is foolish. While what has been lost may on paper have been more "talented" what that really means is name recognizable. The actual ultimate on field result last year was kind of a complete disaster. Thinking we could better that performance with this years roster having some new faces, some better health/a year older, and a new coordinator directing things is not out of the question but it also isn't a guarantee.

Big names or little names, it's still points walking out the door.
Teams can just focus on Degnon and Angelus now. If they can shut them down, they curtail the offense unless younger players can step up.
I can envision some low scoring affairs next year.
If Nawreski is healthy, then faceoffs should improve next year, but it won't matter unless the team's offensive efficiency improves.
Also, clearing needs to improve and turnovers need to drop.
If all those things happen AND they get quality goal tending, then the Jays could punch above their weight next season and pull off some upsets.
They certainly aren't dodging anyone but if people are waiting for PM to get his recruits in the door, change the culture etc, expectations for 2023 should be tempered. 2024 is PM's make or break year, so that may be what he's shooting for IMO.

@ 2022's rate, it's not points walking out that door, it's playing time opening up. name a top 10 (or 20?) team that had 2 guys with the bulk of attack pt averaging 2.5 ppg.

penn? unc? is that the list? and they each had unicorns in handley and gray.

at 5 points, divide that by 1.5 (half an assist for every goal on ave), it's 3.33. considering they take up 1/3 of the pt on the offensive end all year, that is 10 goals per game for the team. you cannot win with that production in this era, particularly with the guys closest to the goal, that get their share of points that others' serve up on a platter for them. a uniform can get 2 points just being on the field all day at attack.

sure, if the players don't do better, then the offense won't. but it's not an incredibly high bar.

[Sagittarius A*]

@ 2022's rate, it's not points walking out that door, it's playing time opening up. name a top 10 (or 20?) team that had 2 guys with the bulk of attack pt averaging 2.5 ppg.

penn? unc? is that the list? and they each had unicorns in handley and gray.

at 5 points, divide that by 1.5 (half an assist for every goal on ave), it's 3.33. considering they take up 1/3 of the pt on the offensive end all year, that is 10 goals per game for the team. you cannot win with that production in this era, particularly with the guys closest to the goal, that get their share of points that others' serve up on a platter for them. a uniform can get 2 points just being on the field all day at attack.

sure, if the players don't do better, then the offense won't. but it's not an incredibly high bar.

Consider though that they were the best the team had. If there were better players, they would have been playing.
Who replaces them now?
You can make an argument that offensive production will be even worse going forward.
Again, shut down two guys with your top D men and slides and it's not clear right now where the production would be coming from.

[wgdsr]

@ 2022's rate, it's not points walking out that door, it's playing time opening up. name a top 10 (or 20?) team that had 2 guys with the bulk of attack pt averaging 2.5 ppg.

penn? unc? is that the list? and they each had unicorns in handley and gray.

at 5 points, divide that by 1.5 (half an assist for every goal on ave), it's 3.33. considering they take up 1/3 of the pt on the offensive end all year, that is 10 goals per game for the team. you cannot win with that production in this era, particularly with the guys closest to the goal, that get their share of points that others' serve up on a platter for them. a uniform can get 2 points just being on the field all day at attack.

sure, if the players don't do better, then the offense won't. but it's not an incredibly high bar.

Consider though that they were the best the team had. If there were better players, they would have been playing.
Who replaces them now?
You can make an argument that offensive production will be even worse going forward.
Again, shut down two guys with your top D men and slides and it's not clear right now where the production would be coming from.

please think about this for a short second. by your logic, every team would get worse unless they brought everyone back. and they'd only be v good if they were v good to begin with.

there is a new set of characters (transfer and freshmen, in addition to maybe freshmen+ that weren't ready to unseat anyone last year), and more than 1 guy that took to supposed injuries last year.

today is spring training. it's the time for optimism, hope. a douse of realism is warranted. why folks would choose end of the world at every turn seems defeatist for your goal as a fan.

maybe you can take comfort in the fact there hasn't been an anointing of a player that's shown flashes as the next great saviour on here, like many spring trainings have seen.

[Sagittarius A*]

please think about this for a short second. by your logic, every team would get worse unless they brought everyone back. and they'd only be v good if they were v good to begin with.

Typically, teams that have less graduation losses tend to do better.
You can also improve by having good transfers come in, like Rutgers and UMD are doing now.
Or you have hotshot players waiting in the wings for their chance or superstar all-everything freshmen stepping on the field.
Not sure either of these are the case for the Jays in 2023.
Sure, you can get your hopes sky-high in the offseason only to have them crash down to reality when the season starts.
My expectations are extremely low right now, hence I will not likely be disappointed come Spring.

[HopFan16]

Typically, teams that have less graduation losses tend to do better.

Yeah, teams that were already good.

Anyways, relative to other teams, we DO have less graduation losses. Take two minutes to Google and see what other teams are losing.

Or you have hotshot players waiting in the wings for their chance or superstar all-everything freshmen stepping on the field.
Not sure either of these are the case for the Jays in 2023.

We did have two Under Armor All Americans on offense in this freshman class. Only one school (Cuse) had more. So...if we're not allowed to get excited about any freshmen on offense then I guess Duke, UVA, and UNC aren't either.

Sure, you can get your hopes sky-high in the offseason only to have them crash down to reality when the season starts.

Literally no one has "sky-high" hopes if you'd bother to read what anyone else is saying

[wgdsr]

please think about this for a short second. by your logic, every team would get worse unless they brought everyone back. and they'd only be v good if they were v good to begin with.

Typically, teams that have less graduation losses tend to do better.
You can also improve by having good transfers come in, like Rutgers and UMD are doing now.
Or you have hotshot players waiting in the wings for their chance or superstar all-everything freshmen stepping on the field.
Not sure either of these are the case for the Jays in 2023.
Sure, you can get your hopes sky-high in the offseason only to have them crash down to reality when the season starts.
My expectations are extremely low right now, hence I will not likely be disappointed come Spring.

you should be delighted, then. as most opponents on the jays' schedule will have more in the way of graduation losses.

i doubt you can find many opinions that are *sky-high* on jhu to date. dour and dark for however long so you potentially avoid disappointment is a bold strategy, cotton. let's see if it pays off.

what were the red flags on milliman that the brass ignored?

[Sagittarius A*]

what were the red flags on milliman that the brass ignored?

My response to that would be more along the lines that the brass wanted a culture change.
I don't think they really care to have a DI athletic profile, and want more of an academic profile that they can leverage for the school.
They're fine if D3 does well, but I believe they are just as happy if D1 lacrosse is marginal.
Run a clean program, stay out of trouble, expectations are not high anymore.
Otherwise, why would Milliman have taken the risk of coming here?

[wgdsr]

what were the red flags on milliman that the brass ignored?

My response to that would be more along the lines that the brass wanted a culture change.
I don't think they really care to have a DI athletic profile, and want more of an academic profile that they can leverage for the school.
They're fine if D3 does well, but I believe they are just as happy if D1 lacrosse is marginal.
Run a clean program, stay out of trouble, expectations are not high anymore.
Otherwise, why would Milliman have taken the risk of coming here?

$$$$.
and sometimes people are ok with expectations as they do things they believe are aligned with the career aspirations and goals.

in any event, i guess you're no longer saying that the brass ignored all the red flags in hiring him.

[Backinshape]

Nebraska Football. They were a juggernaut. There was a time where their willingness to invest as much as they possibly could into their program was enough to win them national championships and propel them into the mix as a national championship contender on an annual basis. TV revenue started to spread out amongst conferences which caused more and more programs to join the arms race. Nebraska still has the willingness to invest as much as possible into their program, but that willingness is no longer enough of a catalyst to prop them up as a national title contender. Too many other schools are doing it as well....
Johns Hopkins had a lot of years where there was a better chance of them playing in the final 4 then them missing out on memorial day weekend. They invested heavily into the program and it resulted in sustained success. That sustained success, while still expected by seemingly every alum, is a thing of the past. There are so many more schools offering 12.6 scholarships now. Johns Hopkins built an incredible lacrosse facility- but so did others. Johns Hopkins still admits lacrosse players that do not fit the academic profile of the general student body- so does everyone else. Johns Hoopkins' coaches can still generate supplemental income- so can everyone else.
The amount of schools that are willing to invest heavily into their lacrosse programs has risen exponentially. That is the hurdle for the Hopkins program being a perennial national championship contender.

[Sagittarius A*]

what were the red flags on milliman that the brass ignored?

My response to that would be more along the lines that the brass wanted a culture change.
I don't think they really care to have a DI athletic profile, and want more of an academic profile that they can leverage for the school.
They're fine if D3 does well, but I believe they are just as happy if D1 lacrosse is marginal.
Run a clean program, stay out of trouble, expectations are not high anymore.
Otherwise, why would Milliman have taken the risk of coming here?

$$$$.
and sometimes people are ok with expectations as they do things they believe are aligned with the career aspirations and goals.

in any event, i guess you're no longer saying that the brass ignored all the red flags in hiring him.

I'm saying I don't think he's the guy to turn the program around, for various reasons, but also it wasn't their goal in hiring him.
Everything with them is a smoke-screen, like the press release of hiring a search firm when they already had the guy picked out.
UMD, for instance, wants to be a sports powerhouse. That's part of their image. The image they want for JHU is a high end academic/medical/research institution.
So I don't think they actually care that much about lacrosse and probably prefer if the Lacrosse powerhouse image is decoupled from the University. That's my take of reading between the lines.
From Milliman's perspective, if he doesn't make the playoffs in the next couple years (assuming worst case) he can still argue he didn't get the support he was promised from the University. The Cornell team he put together went on to reach the Championship game, so he can leverage that for a new role. I'm sure other AD's etc can see what's been going on at Hop so I think he will be able to safely move on.
Everyone laughs at me on here (to each his own LOL) but I think we need a change at the top if the program is ever going to come back to prominence again. That's my take for what it's worth.

[Typical Lax Dad]

what were the red flags on milliman that the brass ignored?

My response to that would be more along the lines that the brass wanted a culture change.
I don't think they really care to have a DI athletic profile, and want more of an academic profile that they can leverage for the school.
They're fine if D3 does well, but I believe they are just as happy if D1 lacrosse is marginal.
Run a clean program, stay out of trouble, expectations are not high anymore.
Otherwise, why would Milliman have taken the risk of coming here?

$$$$.
and sometimes people are ok with expectations as they do things they believe are aligned with the career aspirations and goals.

in any event, i guess you're no longer saying that the brass ignored all the red flags in hiring him.

I'm saying I don't think he's the guy to turn the program around, for various reasons, but also it wasn't their goal in hiring him.
Everything with them is a smoke-screen, like the press release of hiring a search firm when they already had the guy picked out.
UMD, for instance, wants to be a sports powerhouse. That's part of their image. The image they want for JHU is a high end academic/medical/research institution.
So I don't think they actually care that much about lacrosse and probably prefer if the Lacrosse powerhouse image is decoupled from the University. That's my take of reading between the lines.
From Milliman's perspective, if he doesn't make the playoffs in the next couple years (assuming worst case) he can still argue he didn't get the support he was promised from the University. The Cornell team he put together went on to reach the Championship game, so he can leverage that for a new role. I'm sure other AD's etc can see what's been going on at Hop so I think he will be able to safely move on.
Everyone laughs at me on here (to each his own LOL) but I think we need a change at the top if the program is ever going to come back to prominence again. That's my take for what it's worth.

How about lacrosse just ain’t that important. When those Hopkins officials got off the plane and saw the Michigan and Ohio State athletic facilities they may have realized it.

[wgdsr]

what were the red flags on milliman that the brass ignored?

My response to that would be more along the lines that the brass wanted a culture change.
I don't think they really care to have a DI athletic profile, and want more of an academic profile that they can leverage for the school.
They're fine if D3 does well, but I believe they are just as happy if D1 lacrosse is marginal.
Run a clean program, stay out of trouble, expectations are not high anymore.
Otherwise, why would Milliman have taken the risk of coming here?

$$$$.
and sometimes people are ok with expectations as they do things they believe are aligned with the career aspirations and goals.

in any event, i guess you're no longer saying that the brass ignored all the red flags in hiring him.

I'm saying I don't think he's the guy to turn the program around, for various reasons, but also it wasn't their goal in hiring him.
Everything with them is a smoke-screen, like the press release of hiring a search firm when they already had the guy picked out.
UMD, for instance, wants to be a sports powerhouse. That's part of their image. The image they want for JHU is a high end academic/medical/research institution.
So I don't think they actually care that much about lacrosse and probably prefer if the Lacrosse powerhouse image is decoupled from the University. That's my take of reading between the lines.
From Milliman's perspective, if he doesn't make the playoffs in the next couple years (assuming worst case) he can still argue he didn't get the support he was promised from the University. The Cornell team he put together went on to reach the Championship game, so he can leverage that for a new role. I'm sure other AD's etc can see what's been going on at Hop so I think he will be able to safely move on.
Everyone laughs at me on here (to each his own LOL) but I think we need a change at the top if the program is ever going to come back to prominence again. That's my take for what it's worth.

oh, i don't care about any of that. there are more cloak and dagger conspiracy theories on here about admin than you can swing a dead cat at. you should join the uva football boards, you could feel right at home.

i've only been asking about this:

Petro kept his staff together for like 15 years. In retrospect, he probably should have made some changes, especially with the D coordinator.
But this Coach has turned his staff over within two years. In addition, you got the Epstein debacle and the Murphy debacle, plus more guys walking out the door this year. This is all so messed up.
They needed to see the red flags with this guy before bringing him in here.
I just don't think they did their due diligence at all and as a result the program is on a clear downslope.

what were the red flags before bringing him in?

seems like you're now saying none of that little assassination is accurate, and he's the perfect stooge for this cabal.

have at it, and ftr, i've never met the guy.