All Things Russia & Ukraine

[Bandito]

What do those who want to give Putin his current (not his last for sure) land grab think he will do to the people and communities that will fall under his control?

They all become Russians and are treated like Moscovites???

Will he rebuild their lives, homes, jobs, infrastucture, etc...???

I think we should send $500 billion to Ukraine to stop him!!!

[Farfromgeneva]

This is how escalation can spin out of control.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-e ... rgn7djgbq6

In war, nothing is inevitable and not much is predictable. But the war in Ukraine has a direction that observers can see and that we should name. What began as a criminal Russian aggression against Ukraine has become a proxy war between Washington and Moscow. The two sides are locked in an escalatory cycle that, along current trends, will eventually bring them into direct conflict and then go nuclear, killing millions of people and destroying much of the world. ...

And yet makes predictions. What???

[Farfromgeneva]

Boy, Salty really goes off the deep end at these later hours in the day.

This is the definition of trolling fyi.

No it's not, they have a real relationship even if it may seem adversarial. What you do is flat out trolling and disresepctful to everyone on both sides of agendas who participate in good faith here. Its pathetic and disgusting.

[Bandito]

Boy, Salty really goes off the deep end at these later hours in the day.

This is the definition of trolling fyi.

No it's not, they have a real relationship even if it may seem adversarial. What you do is flat out trolling and disresepctful to everyone on both sides of agendas who participate in good faith here. Its pathetic and disgusting.

Posting facts is not trolling. Just because you don’t agree with the truth, doesn’t imply trolling. Personal insults, which you flung at me in a previous post from the other day does violate the TOS. Why are you so upset by the truth? It is sad. I feel sorry for you.

[MDlaxfan76]

Boy, Salty really goes off the deep end at these later hours in the day.

This is the definition of trolling fyi.

No it's not, they have a real relationship even if it may seem adversarial. What you do is flat out trolling and disresepctful to everyone on both sides of agendas who participate in good faith here. Its pathetic and disgusting.

That's correct, at least from my point of view.
Salty, Old Salt, participates thoughtfully and constructively, providing real facts and analysis, as part of ongoing discussions. He brings actual expertise and thoughtful perspective to those discussions.

I attempt to do the same.

We may disagree, even vehemently at times, but he's not a troll, nor am I.

Trolls exist only to inflame through gross misrepresentations and outright mistruths.

[Farfromgeneva]

Boy, Salty really goes off the deep end at these later hours in the day.

This is the definition of trolling fyi.

No it's not, they have a real relationship even if it may seem adversarial. What you do is flat out trolling and disresepctful to everyone on both sides of agendas who participate in good faith here. Its pathetic and disgusting.

Posting facts is not trolling. Just because you don’t agree with the truth, doesn’t imply trolling. Personal insults, which you flung at me in a previous post from the other day does violate the TOS. Why are you so upset by the truth? It is sad. I feel sorry for you.

Wrong wrong wrong.

You lost the credibility to ever cite the TOS here ever again.

[old salt]

This is how escalation can spin out of control.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-e ... rgn7djgbq6

In war, nothing is inevitable and not much is predictable. But the war in Ukraine has a direction that observers can see and that we should name. What began as a criminal Russian aggression against Ukraine has become a proxy war between Washington and Moscow. The two sides are locked in an escalatory cycle that, along current trends, will eventually bring them into direct conflict and then go nuclear, killing millions of people and destroying much of the world. ...

And yet makes predictions. What???

He's predicting what happened in 1914. I'm not predicting that it will. I'm not predicting that It won't.
I don't know, but (imho) the possibility is real & should not be discounted.

[old salt]

US military aid & training has saved the nation of Ukraine & guarantees it's survival. Russia is no longer advancing & adding territory.
The longer Ukraine survives & incorporates US & NATO weapons systems, the more secure they will become.
They knocked down 50% of the missiles in the most recent attack. That % will just get better as US air defense systems are added.

Translation: I'm too stubborn to answer an obvious question, because I don't like the answer.

You're so full of it. You protected our nation for how long? And yet here you are, pretending that if you were the leader of a country that you'd sit idly by and let another country lob missiles into our cities, trying to kill as many civilians as possible because the enemies troops can't beat you on the battlefield.

Nukes, Old Salt. Ukraine is gonna get nukes. Wake up, and stop blaming Biden's little D because you're petty and ideologically lazy.

They removed their nukes, and are now paying the price for choosing the peaceful past. And yet you're on here, blaming them for the invasion ...blaming them for making the peaceful choice.

They won't make the mistake of listening to guys like you ever again.

And they're not gonna get icbms, because.... what for? They're gonna build the little f'ers that Putin is threatening to use.

And now Asia is a mess, and it has NOTHING to do with whether or not the US helps.

You have really gone off the deep end now. Attributing things to me that I have never even considered, let alone proposed.
They removed their nukes 20 years ago & then did little-to-nothing to defend themselves since, in the face of an obviously threatening neighbor.
That's not how things work in the real world. Now, with continued US & NATO support, they're able to defend themselves without nukes.

[Farfromgeneva]

This is how escalation can spin out of control.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-e ... rgn7djgbq6

In war, nothing is inevitable and not much is predictable. But the war in Ukraine has a direction that observers can see and that we should name. What began as a criminal Russian aggression against Ukraine has become a proxy war between Washington and Moscow. The two sides are locked in an escalatory cycle that, along current trends, will eventually bring them into direct conflict and then go nuclear, killing millions of people and destroying much of the world. ...

And yet makes predictions. What???

He's predicting what happened in 1914. I'm not predicting that it will. I'm not predicting that It won't.
I don't know, but (imho) the possibility is real & should not be discounted.

Give me your probability

[old salt]

This is how escalation can spin out of control.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-e ... rgn7djgbq6

In war, nothing is inevitable and not much is predictable. But the war in Ukraine has a direction that observers can see and that we should name. What began as a criminal Russian aggression against Ukraine has become a proxy war between Washington and Moscow. The two sides are locked in an escalatory cycle that, along current trends, will eventually bring them into direct conflict and then go nuclear, killing millions of people and destroying much of the world. ...

And yet makes predictions. What???

He's predicting what happened in 1914. I'm not predicting that it will. I'm not predicting that It won't.
I don't know, but (imho) the possibility is real & should not be discounted.

Give me your probability

How many ways can I say -- I don't know. Too many un-quantifiable variables.

[MDlaxfan76]

This is how escalation can spin out of control.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/the-e ... rgn7djgbq6

In war, nothing is inevitable and not much is predictable. But the war in Ukraine has a direction that observers can see and that we should name. What began as a criminal Russian aggression against Ukraine has become a proxy war between Washington and Moscow. The two sides are locked in an escalatory cycle that, along current trends, will eventually bring them into direct conflict and then go nuclear, killing millions of people and destroying much of the world. ...

And yet makes predictions. What???

He's predicting what happened in 1914. I'm not predicting that it will. I'm not predicting that It won't.
I don't know, but (imho) the possibility is real & should not be discounted.

Give me your probability

How many ways can I say -- I don't know. Too many un-quantifiable variables.

I find the article an interesting and generally reasonable description of the scenario that could end in nuclear exchange.

That said, I find that scenario still incredibly remote, though clearly the outcome costs are so extreme as to have to be considered carefully and serious work needs to be done to discourage that possibility, given the Russian rhetoric.

I find the tone of the article to be insufficiently recognizing that the Russian aggression and then war crimes are the driving factors in the necessity to be opposed forcefully. The conflict was of Putin's making, supported by ideologue hawks who don't believe Ukraine has any right to exist as an independent country, not by the expansion of NATO.

The article seems to be supportive of a notion that Ukraine should be supported less, either to the point of a stalemate or to outright loss, thereby avoiding "escalation" which has undetermined outcomes but which might include a catastrophic scenario.

The writer is sharper in tone when he sarcastically refers to "some genius" in Russia, but it's insufficient IMO.

What I'm seeing from afar of the Biden Admin's moves, NATO's and various European countries' signals of resolve, is a clear message to any listening Russian that escalation to nuclear would be catastrophic for Russia, piercing the ballon of rhetoric and argument that it would "demonstrate" Russian willingness to face armageddon and force the West to not support Ukraine. Rather, the messaging makes clear it would do the opposite...making any such "demonstration" a complete failure...the more that Russia realizes this, the better.

The other thing I find problematic is the whole discussion of "red lines" as if any aggressor, committing war crimes, EVER has a red line that it can impose credibly. They've already crossed multiple 'red lines', there's no compunction already demonstrated to human destruction at horrible scale .

By contrast, the attacked and those who come to their aid have the moral high ground to resist until successful.

The author seems to acknowledge this somewhat, pivoting to the argument that the problem of nuclear escalation happens when Putin and his allies become convinced that the West will completely destroy their regime and force them out, possibly to be executed by their own people ala Khaddafi.

That's why I think Biden's rhetoric makes sense...Putin badly miscalculated, thought he would be welcomed with open arms, and was simply wrong...recognizing that mistake, he should withdraw...it's clear that if he did so, the pressure on Russia would naturally abate. Putin would face the hardliners inside Russia but it's not the West which would invade and force them out...the kleptocracy could continue...at least for some time.

[old salt]

If the war continues on it's present course it could come down to a supply battle between Russian cruise missiles & Ukrainian SAMs.
Russia has the advantage now because Ukraine is expending their inventory of Soviet legacy SAMs while US/NATO replacements are just trickling in & will take over a year for full delivery. It makes sense for the Russians to aggressively use their cruise missile inventory advantage before Ukraine's SAM supply catches up. The number of available Iranian suicide drones will also be a factor.

Cruise missiles are not envisioned for lengthy bombardment campaigns. They're for isolated strikes & the first few days of a war, preparing for an invasion. The most effective defense against cruise missiles is to deny them launching points within range of the targets. That's not practical in a stationary war between neighboring nations, especially when Russia controls the Black Sea & Crimea. Russia might as well go all in with their cruise missile inventory now. Why save them ? Who else are they preparing to invade in the near term ? They might as well use them now, when it might make a difference. Their new General in charge is an air force guy who bombed Syria to rubble.

Ukraine does not have the deep strike or targeting capability to take them out before launch & the US/NATO are not giving them the weapons needed to strike into Russia.

[a fan]

US military aid & training has saved the nation of Ukraine & guarantees it's survival. Russia is no longer advancing & adding territory.
The longer Ukraine survives & incorporates US & NATO weapons systems, the more secure they will become.
They knocked down 50% of the missiles in the most recent attack. That % will just get better as US air defense systems are added.

Translation: I'm too stubborn to answer an obvious question, because I don't like the answer.

You're so full of it. You protected our nation for how long? And yet here you are, pretending that if you were the leader of a country that you'd sit idly by and let another country lob missiles into our cities, trying to kill as many civilians as possible because the enemies troops can't beat you on the battlefield.

Nukes, Old Salt. Ukraine is gonna get nukes. Wake up, and stop blaming Biden's little D because you're petty and ideologically lazy.

They removed their nukes, and are now paying the price for choosing the peaceful past. And yet you're on here, blaming them for the invasion ...blaming them for making the peaceful choice.

They won't make the mistake of listening to guys like you ever again.

And they're not gonna get icbms, because.... what for? They're gonna build the little f'ers that Putin is threatening to use.

And now Asia is a mess, and it has NOTHING to do with whether or not the US helps.

You have really gone off the deep end now. Attributing things to me that I have never even considered, let alone proposed.
They removed their nukes 20 years ago & then did little-to-nothing to defend themselves since, in the face of an obviously threatening neighbor.
That's not how things work in the real world. Now, with continued US & NATO support, they're able to defend themselves without nukes.

Pay attention.

What I said was: if Urkaine does what you are suggesting.

Let's walk through what you think the US and Ukraine should have done, as well as what they should do now.

Before the invasion, Old Salt advises the following:

-US offers no aid, let's Ukraine fend for themselves
-Putin somehow ONLY takes the Luhansk, Donestz, Zap., and Kherson (Old Salt's imagined outcome)
-Ukraine doesn't join NATO, and remains neutral.

Got it? So the result from this is that Urkaine fights Putin because they want to defend their homeland. They can't do this, and Putin takes the above provinces, at a minimum.

What I am telling you that the next thing Ukraine will do is get to work building Nukes because A. NATO won't help them, and B. Putin is CLEARLY undeterred by conventional weapons UNLESS it's an overwhelming force.

Get it? Ukraine will arm itself, because of course they will. They TRIED to disarm their nukes, and it cost them a big fat part of their country, and thousands dead. They won't make this mistake again.

-----------------

Moving on, Old Salt recommend the following as of Oct 13, 2022

-US should slow arms to Urkaine, forcing Zelensky to the table
-Zelensky should capitulate to Putin's demands, meaning: 1. cede the four territories, and pledging neutrality.

So what's the result?

Same result: the next thing Ukraine will do is get to work building Nukes because A. NATO won't help them, and B. Putin is CLEARLY undeterred by conventional weapons UNLESS it's an overwhelming force.

In either case, the region is less stable, and you have a bunch of bitter Ukrainians who have lost thousands of loved one, have withstood billions in damage, and who want their land back from Putin.

There is no winning move for Biden. You just don't want to hear it.

[DocBarrister]

Just how stupid is Vladimir Putin?

He recently boasted that 16,000 of his recent draftees (out of a planned 300,000) have already been deployed for combat duty in Ukraine.

That is totally nuts. Putin only ordered the emergency draft on or around September 21, 2022, less than a month ago. In all likelihood, the 16,000 draftees who are already in Ukraine probably received only about two weeks of training.

No soldier is ready for combat duty after just two weeks of training, even if they have prior military experience. They are simply being sent to Ukraine for slaughter.

With criticism from pro-war bloggers over the reported deaths of new recruits fighting in Ukraine intensifying, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Friday defended his recent draft, saying that he had no regrets about the war in Ukraine.

His remarks came as prominent military bloggers have accused the Kremlin’s defense officials of throwing unprepared recruits into battle. The draft has also run into resistance across Russia as villagers, activists and even some elected officials have asked why the conscription drive has appeared to hit minority groups and rural areas harder than the big cities. In late September, anger with the call-up spilled over into street protests.

Some 222,000 Russians already have been drafted and 16,000 of them have been deployed “in units that get involved in fulfilling combat tasks,” Mr. Putin told a news conference in Astana, Kazakhstan, adding that he expects the mobilization to be completed within two weeks.

When Mr. Putin announced a “partial mobilization” in September, he said that servicemen called up for active duty would “undergo mandatory additional military training.” The Russian government said that such training could take up to one month.

Russian media has reported at least seven deaths among people who were recently drafted. Asked on Friday why some mobilized servicemen had died so soon after mobilization began, Mr. Putin said that in some cases training could take just 10 days.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/10/14 ... e-war-news

My sympathies are not with the Russians, but promising a month of training (hardly enough) and then admitting you’re giving them ten days before deploying them for combat …

… that is seriously f*cked up.

Russia and Putin are going to lose this war.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

Assuming they had enough weapons and ammo to give to these 200k recruits, how soon do they turn them on Moscow?

That one video of a Russian soldier claimed they'd only fired 3 rounds in training before being sent to the front line to be cannon fodder.

They may not be spetsnaz, but that's a lot of guys who don't want to be there who might well turn on those forcing them...

[MDlaxfan76]

If the war continues on it's present course it could come down to a supply battle between Russian cruise missiles & Ukrainian SAMs.
Russia has the advantage now because Ukraine is expending their inventory of Soviet legacy SAMs while US/NATO replacements are just trickling in & will take over a year for full delivery. It makes sense for the Russians to aggressively use their cruise missile inventory advantage before Ukraine's SAM supply catches up. The number of available Iranian suicide drones will also be a factor.

Cruise missiles are not envisioned for lengthy bombardment campaigns. They're for isolated strikes & the first few days of a war, preparing for an invasion. The most effective defense against cruise missiles is to deny them launching points within range of the targets. That's not practical in a stationary war between neighboring nations, especially when Russia controls the Black Sea & Crimea. Russia might as well go all in with their cruise missile inventory now. Why save them ? Who else are they preparing to invade in the near term ? They might as well use them now, when it might make a difference. Their new General in charge is an air force guy who bombed Syria to rubble.

Ukraine does not have the deep strike or targeting capability to take them out before launch & the US/NATO are not giving them the weapons needed to strike into Russia.

Which is why my view is that the US/NATO should indeed provide a limited # of longer range targeted capabilities and then closely monitor their usage. Be sure that they're striking only launch points, if not from Ukraine (incl Crimea)...Black Sea certainly. Work with them closely on target priorities.

But most importantly, take out every military or supply chokepoint in Ukraine or ala bridge. Every command and control center in Ukraine. Rain hell on their military strongholds from the sky (doesn't matter as much re soldiers, take out their artillery, communications, command centers, weapons depots, etc). Targeted.

What the Russians are doing is trying to terrorize the Ukrainian civilians with the randomness...not going to work, though truly awful. More problematic are the efforts to destroy energy infrastructure, again to terrorize civilians. I don't think that's going to work either.

Yes, Russia is likely to expend its cruise missile arsenal and any drones it can get its hands on...ramping up air defenses is very, very important, but not really possible to prevent all strikes when so many sent, so many targets.

But the Ukrainian resolve will only strengthen at this point.

And the Russian capabilities will dwindle.

[DocBarrister]

Assuming they had enough weapons and ammo to give to these 200k recruits, how soon do they turn them on Moscow?

That one video of a Russian soldier claimed they'd only fired 3 rounds in training before being sent to the front line to be cannon fodder.

They may not be spetsnaz, but that's a lot of guys who don't want to be there who might well turn on those forcing them...

The Russians were well-known to provide little training for their soldiers.

For example, this U.S. general wrote a recent article about his discussion with a Russian officer, who boasted that his tank crews were allowed to fire one live round a year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ee-russia/

In contrast, U.S. tank crews fire dozens of live rounds during their training.

No wonder Russia is getting smashed in Ukraine.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

A caveat, I'd target Wagner mercenaries specifically wherever they concentrate.
Those are some evil and sometimes effective goons.

[old salt]

US military aid & training has saved the nation of Ukraine & guarantees it's survival. Russia is no longer advancing & adding territory.
The longer Ukraine survives & incorporates US & NATO weapons systems, the more secure they will become.
They knocked down 50% of the missiles in the most recent attack. That % will just get better as US air defense systems are added.

Translation: I'm too stubborn to answer an obvious question, because I don't like the answer.

You're so full of it. You protected our nation for how long? And yet here you are, pretending that if you were the leader of a country that you'd sit idly by and let another country lob missiles into our cities, trying to kill as many civilians as possible because the enemies troops can't beat you on the battlefield.

Nukes, Old Salt. Ukraine is gonna get nukes. Wake up, and stop blaming Biden's little D because you're petty and ideologically lazy.

They removed their nukes, and are now paying the price for choosing the peaceful past. And yet you're on here, blaming them for the invasion ...blaming them for making the peaceful choice.

They won't make the mistake of listening to guys like you ever again.

And they're not gonna get icbms, because.... what for? They're gonna build the little f'ers that Putin is threatening to use.

And now Asia is a mess, and it has NOTHING to do with whether or not the US helps.

You have really gone off the deep end now. Attributing things to me that I have never even considered, let alone proposed.
They removed their nukes 20 years ago & then did little-to-nothing to defend themselves since, in the face of an obviously threatening neighbor.
That's not how things work in the real world. Now, with continued US & NATO support, they're able to defend themselves without nukes.

Pay attention.

What I said was: if Urkaine does what you are suggesting.

Let's walk through what you think the US and Ukraine should have done, as well as what they should do now.

Before the invasion, Old Salt advises the following:

-US offers no aid, let's Ukraine fend for themselves Wrong. Stop misreprepresenting me. I've always approved DEFENSIVE aid. I just resent that we have to do it.
-Putin somehow ONLY takes the Luhansk, Donestz, Zap., and Kherson (Old Salt's imagined outcome) That is all he has taken -- look at a map. It's played out as I predicted. Russian forces in northern Kherson may still be driven back across the Dneiper river making that the natural border.
-Ukraine doesn't join NATO, Ukraine is not in the process of joining NATO. That will take the approval of all NATO members. Good luck getting Turkey, Hungary & likely others to vote yes.and remains neutral.

Got it? So the result from this is that Urkaine fights Putin because they want to defend their homeland. They can't do this, and Putin takes the above provinces, at a minimum.It's debatable that those provinces & Crimea are Ukrainian "homeland".

What I am telling you that the next thing Ukraine will do is get to work building Nukes because A. NATO won't help them, and B. Putin is CLEARLY undeterred by conventional weapons UNLESS it's an overwhelming force. Do the Ukrainians have the ability to develop nukes ? Will the US & NATO continue to provide support if they do ?

Get it? Ukraine will arm itself, because of course they will. They TRIED to disarm their nukes, and it cost them a big fat part of their country, and thousands dead. They won't make this mistake again. With continued US & NATO support in DEFENSIVE CONVENTIONAL weapons, Ukraine can deter another Russian invasion, just as Poland & the Baltic states have.

-----------------

Moving on, Old Salt recommend the following as of Oct 13, 2022

-US should slow arms to Urkaine, forcing Zelensky to the table Wrong. I haven't recommended further slowing them -- we already are. We're still not giving them what they want.
-Zelensky should capitulate to Putin's demands, meaning: 1. cede the four territories, and pledging neutrality.
A cease fire/frozen conflict requires neither. Zelensky should face reality. He failed to defend the territory he lost & does not have the ability to take it back without the US & NATO doing more than they are willing to risk. He has at least ensured the survival of his country. He should make the best deal he can & rebuild his country.

So what's the result?

Same result: the next thing Ukraine will do is get to work building Nukes because A. NATO won't help them, and B. Putin is CLEARLY undeterred by conventional weapons UNLESS it's an overwhelming force. Fantasyland. Putin is already deterred by the conventional defense Ukraine has mounted. He's struggling to hold what he has. He won't be invading anyone in his remaining time in power. He does not have the forces to do so.

In either case, the region is less stable, and you have a bunch of bitter Ukrainians who have lost thousands of loved one, have withstood billions in damage, and who want their land back from Putin. Both Ukraine & Russia are exhausted & in no shape to threaten NATO.

There is no winning move for Biden. You just don't want to hear it.
Biden's (so far) staying within my limits -- you're just too determined to have an irrelevant RvD argument to see it.
Biden may not (yet) be able to force Putin & Zelensky to the table, but he can limit & slow walk our military aid so that Ukraine can't drive Russia out of all the territory they now hold & won't trap Putin or prompt him to escalate. Biden has admitted that he's looking for an off ramp for Putin & he's trying to get Putin & Zelensky to the table.

[PizzaSnake]

US military aid & training has saved the nation of Ukraine & guarantees it's survival. Russia is no longer advancing & adding territory.
The longer Ukraine survives & incorporates US & NATO weapons systems, the more secure they will become.
They knocked down 50% of the missiles in the most recent attack. That % will just get better as US air defense systems are added.

Translation: I'm too stubborn to answer an obvious question, because I don't like the answer.

You're so full of it. You protected our nation for how long? And yet here you are, pretending that if you were the leader of a country that you'd sit idly by and let another country lob missiles into our cities, trying to kill as many civilians as possible because the enemies troops can't beat you on the battlefield.

Nukes, Old Salt. Ukraine is gonna get nukes. Wake up, and stop blaming Biden's little D because you're petty and ideologically lazy.

They removed their nukes, and are now paying the price for choosing the peaceful past. And yet you're on here, blaming them for the invasion ...blaming them for making the peaceful choice.

They won't make the mistake of listening to guys like you ever again.

And they're not gonna get icbms, because.... what for? They're gonna build the little f'ers that Putin is threatening to use.

And now Asia is a mess, and it has NOTHING to do with whether or not the US helps.

You have really gone off the deep end now. Attributing things to me that I have never even considered, let alone proposed.
They removed their nukes 20 years ago & then did little-to-nothing to defend themselves since, in the face of an obviously threatening neighbor.
That's not how things work in the real world. Now, with continued US & NATO support, they're able to defend themselves without nukes.

Pay attention.

What I said was: if Urkaine does what you are suggesting.

Let's walk through what you think the US and Ukraine should have done, as well as what they should do now.

Before the invasion, Old Salt advises the following:

-US offers no aid, let's Ukraine fend for themselves Wrong. Stop misreprepresenting me. I've always approved DEFENSIVE aid. I just resent that we have to do it.
-Putin somehow ONLY takes the Luhansk, Donestz, Zap., and Kherson (Old Salt's imagined outcome) That is all he has taken -- look at a map. It's played out as I predicted. Russian forces in northern Kherson may still be driven back across the Dneiper river making that the natural border.
-Ukraine doesn't join NATO, Ukraine is not in the process of joining NATO. That will take the approval of all NATO members. Good luck getting Turkey, Hungary & likely others to vote yes.and remains neutral.

Got it? So the result from this is that Urkaine fights Putin because they want to defend their homeland. They can't do this, and Putin takes the above provinces, at a minimum.It's debatable that those provinces & Crimea are Ukrainian "homeland".

What I am telling you that the next thing Ukraine will do is get to work building Nukes because A. NATO won't help them, and B. Putin is CLEARLY undeterred by conventional weapons UNLESS it's an overwhelming force. Do the Ukrainians have the ability to develop nukes ? Will the US & NATO continue to provide support if they do ?

Get it? Ukraine will arm itself, because of course they will. They TRIED to disarm their nukes, and it cost them a big fat part of their country, and thousands dead. They won't make this mistake again. With continued US & NATO support in DEFENSIVE CONVENTIONAL weapons, Ukraine can deter another Russian invasion, just as Poland & the Baltic states have.

-----------------

Moving on, Old Salt recommend the following as of Oct 13, 2022

-US should slow arms to Urkaine, forcing Zelensky to the table Wrong. I haven't recommended further slowing them -- we already are. We're still not giving them what they want.
-Zelensky should capitulate to Putin's demands, meaning: 1. cede the four territories, and pledging neutrality.
A cease fire/frozen conflict requires neither. Zelensky should face reality. He failed to defend the territory he lost & does not have the ability to take it back without the US & NATO doing more than they are willing to risk. He has at least ensured the survival of his country. He should make the best deal he can & rebuild his country.

So what's the result?

Same result: the next thing Ukraine will do is get to work building Nukes because A. NATO won't help them, and B. Putin is CLEARLY undeterred by conventional weapons UNLESS it's an overwhelming force. Fantasyland. Putin is already deterred by the conventional defense Ukraine has mounted. He's struggling to hold what he has. He won't be invading anyone in his remaining time in power. He does not have the forces to do so.

In either case, the region is less stable, and you have a bunch of bitter Ukrainians who have lost thousands of loved one, have withstood billions in damage, and who want their land back from Putin. Both Ukraine & Russia are exhausted & in no shape to threaten NATO.

There is no winning move for Biden. You just don't want to hear it.
Biden's (so far) staying within my limits -- you're just too determined to have an irrelevant RvD argument to see it.
Biden may not (yet) be able to force Putin & Zelensky to the table, but he can limit & slow walk our military aid so that Ukraine can't drive Russia out of all the territory they now hold & won't trap Putin or prompt him to escalate. Biden has admitted that he's looking for an off ramp for Putin & he's trying to get Putin & Zelensky to the table.

"Fantasyland. Putin is already deterred by the conventional defense Ukraine has mounted. He's struggling to hold what he has. He won't be invading anyone in his remaining time in power. He does not have the forces to do so."

Really? Why do you say that? Fantasy (and stupidity) would be Ukraine counting on the whim and caprice of countries like the US and Germany.

Honestly, would you trust the US? Given the current political and cultural upheaval here? If so, I've got a nice bridge to sell you. Don't worry about those scratches in the paint -- they'll buff out.