I think Warnock will hold on here despite some ludicrous ads that are getting more mentally deficient, dishonest and gross by the week.njbill wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:40 pm Well, the pollsters and prognosticators haven’t been doing a very good job of late.
I’m not as optimistic as Moore. I think the Dems pick up the Senate seat in Pennsylvania. Beyond that, I’m not sure. They have tough holds in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Two for three might be a realistic. All three would be gravy.
Dems have tough pick ups in North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida. Frankly, I would take one for four.
Just don’t see the Dems holding the House. Putting aside all of the mumbo-jumbo about the party in power usually losing in the midterms, Biden‘s approval ratings, the economy, blah blah blah, a factor that doesn’t get enough attention, in my mind, is the shift in seats from state to state following the 2020 consensus (e.g., CA losing seats and TX and Fla picking up). Almost all of those changes favor the Republicans. And then there are the redistricting games the Republicans play. The Dems do too, but they control a lot fewer states.
I live in a swing district which historically is moderately Republican. A Dem (Andy Kim) won in 2018 and 2020 in razor tight races. His district has been redistricted to make it safer for him, but it was at the cost of making another district in New Jersey safer for Republicans.
Beauty to sliver is he put quantitative analysis to aggregating all the polls, effectively making a market equilibrium out of them. He’s pretty good at it. Will be harder as the “bid/ask” (range of extreme positions and related polling) diverges further to find the middle and it’s not exactly a Gaussian distribution.
