2022 Midterms

[ggait]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

538 is out with their 2022 forecast.

GOP has an 84% change of taking control of the House. Average GOP seats is 236. +26 seats for the GOP. Nothing near, for example, the +63 seat wave against Obama in 2010.

Senate control is a toss-up -- GOP has a 53% chance of taking control.

So, basically, a normal mid-term election outcome.

So, of course, nothing near the tsunami wipe out of the Dems and Sleepy Joe that Petey has been predicting. So what else is new.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Herschel's secret kids, again.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/herschel- ... n-campaign

If Herschel invites you to dinner, it might be because there's a chance he's your Dad.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Herschel's secret kids, again.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/herschel- ... n-campaign

If Herschel invites you to dinner, it might be because there's a chance he's your Dad.

Those kids belong to one of the other Herschel Walkers.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Herschel's secret kids, again.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/herschel- ... n-campaign

If Herschel invites you to dinner, it might be because there's a chance he's your Dad.

Those kids belong to one of the other Herschel Walkers.

Tell you what: I'm going to take a good look at my son when I see him over the weekend.

[Peter Brown]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

538 is out with their 2022 forecast.

GOP has an 84% change of taking control of the House. Average GOP seats is 236. +26 seats for the GOP. Nothing near, for example, the +63 seat wave against Obama in 2010.

Senate control is a toss-up -- GOP has a 53% chance of taking control.

So, basically, a normal mid-term election outcome.

So, of course, nothing near the tsunami wipe out of the Dems and Sleepy Joe that Petey has been predicting. So what else is new.

Gosh if Nate Silver says something’s gonna happen, you can take it to the bank!!!! Especially when it favors the Democrats!!

https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-el ... en-1544730

[dislaxxic]

Team Normal Is Doing It Again

Herschel Walker is, by any measure, a flawed candidate. It’s a fact readily observable to anyone with a basic familiarity with his confessed history of self-harm, acts of violence against others, whack-a-doodle beliefs, and steady stream of lies about his supposed academic and business achievements.

Walker was audacious enough to lie to his aides about the secret children he fathered, even when they confronted him with irrefutable evidence of paternity.

But what those aides did in response is telling: They didn’t quit. Instead, they vented to the Daily Beast about what a “pathological liar” Walker is and how the campaign is “like a shirtshow on a train in the middle of a wreck.”

Anonymously, of course. Chalk another one up for “Team Normal.”

Just as they did with former President Trump, instead of letting voters see Walker for who he really is, the professional Republican class is devoting itself to coddling the candidate and covering up for him. And when it gets too icky, they dish quotes to their favorite reporters to make themselves feel better about their life choices. These people aren’t stupid enough to believe that their candidates are fit for office; they’re just trying to trick voters into being that dumb.

Current GOP SOP...

..

[NattyBohChamps04]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

538 is out with their 2022 forecast.

GOP has an 84% change of taking control of the House. Average GOP seats is 236. +26 seats for the GOP. Nothing near, for example, the +63 seat wave against Obama in 2010.

Senate control is a toss-up -- GOP has a 53% chance of taking control.

So, basically, a normal mid-term election outcome.

So, of course, nothing near the tsunami wipe out of the Dems and Sleepy Joe that Petey has been predicting. So what else is new.

That estimate was less than two weeks after the various colossal SCOTUS blunders.

On the abortion side, we're gonna see a massive vote drive by the left. We'll see similar on the right now that they can put statewide or countrywide abortion bans on the books. It will be interesting to see if there are true single-issue voters surrounding abortion.

We'll see where inflation and the economy is. There is enough boiling outrage that this midterm will be very different than most, regardless of the outcome.

Voter registration up more than 1,000% in Kansas since overturn of Roe v. Wade

“For Kansas and Missouri registrations, comparing Friday, June 17 to Friday, June 24, we saw a 1,038% increase in Kansas and a 627% increase in Missouri,”

[PizzaSnake]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

538 is out with their 2022 forecast.

GOP has an 84% change of taking control of the House. Average GOP seats is 236. +26 seats for the GOP. Nothing near, for example, the +63 seat wave against Obama in 2010.

Senate control is a toss-up -- GOP has a 53% chance of taking control.

So, basically, a normal mid-term election outcome.

So, of course, nothing near the tsunami wipe out of the Dems and Sleepy Joe that Petey has been predicting. So what else is new.

That estimate was less than two weeks after the various colossal SCOTUS blunders.

On the abortion side, we're gonna see a massive vote drive by the left. We'll see similar on the right now that they can put statewide or countrywide abortion bans on the books. It will be interesting to see if there are true single-issue voters surrounding abortion.

We'll see where inflation and the economy is. There is enough boiling outrage that this midterm will be very different than most, regardless of the outcome.

Voter registration up more than 1,000% in Kansas since overturn of Roe v. Wade

“For Kansas and Missouri registrations, comparing Friday, June 17 to Friday, June 24, we saw a 1,038% increase in Kansas and a 627% increase in Missouri,”

Which political affiliation will have the most disqualifications of these new registrations?

[DocBarrister]

Generic Congressional polls have been trending towards the Democrats recently.

Democrats hold a 4-percentage point lead against Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, according to a new poll that comes amid low approval ratings for President Biden.

The Politico-Morning Consult poll released on Wednesday found that 46 percent of respondents would choose the Democrat when asked which candidate they would most likely vote for if the election for Congress in their district was held today, compared to 42 percent who said the Republican.


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3 ... ot-survey/

DocBarrister

[kramerica.inc]

This specific problem isn't helping the Democrats:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/politics ... index.html

White House assurances on inflation spark backlash from frustrated swing-state Democrats
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN
Updated 12:10 AM ET, Thu July 14, 2022

(CNN)The White House has been so wrong, so often, on inflation that its latest assurance that the painfully high cost of living has peaked, after more record-busting data, didn't pass muster -- especially with swing state Democrats in an election year.

New statistics on Wednesday showing consumer prices rocketing 9.1% in June year-over-year -- a 40-year high -- dealt another blow to a reeling administration and posed a fresh test of President Joe Biden's capacity to drag his party out of a deepening political hole.

After months of failing to accurately predict the inflationary crisis, the White House was back on a tightrope from which it has often toppled, trying to show Biden feels Americans' pain but confidently predicting relief is around the corner.

Biden insisted in a statement that the figures, while "unacceptably high," were "out-of-date" since they did not properly take into account 30 days of falls in gasoline costs as well as easing prices in commodities like wheat. The President's claim on the granularity of the figures may well be justified. And Biden is hardly the only Western leader saddled by high prices following pandemic-caused supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the war in Ukraine.

But his message was also oddly discordant given the months of frustration millions of Americans have felt. While improvements are possible next month, prices are likely to remain elevated for some time. And since Biden last year said high inflation would "change" more rapidly than people expected, while his aides were calling high prices "transitory," his predictions are unlikely to instill much confidence in imminent relief.

In the states that will decide whether Biden faces a Republican House and Senate after the midterm elections -- a scenario that would strangle his domestic program -- the impact of inflation is cutting deep. And it's opening gaps between Democrats experiencing the harsh political impact of inflation on the frontlines and a White House that has so far failed to tame it or to shape an effective political message to project confidence that it can.

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin, an endangered Democrat in November, faulted the administration on its earlier forecasts that the worst of the crisis was already over.

"I remember being with a bunch of senior leaders in November, screaming my head off about the price of gas in November and being patted on my head and saying like, 'Don't worry, we got to get through Christmas and it'll be better in 2022,'" Slotkin told reporters on Wednesday. "I don't think that we have a great sense of where this is going."

Another Democrat from an electoral battleground, Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin, faulted Biden's argument that the record inflation figures were out of date. "I know that people are really suffering with the inflation and while it is great news that in the last month that gas prices have gone down by about 40 cents per gallon, that's not really the break people are looking for," she said. Baldwin is not up for reelection in November but the race for her state's other Senate seat will help decide control of the chamber in November.
What can Biden actually do about inflation? History is a guide

One of the most politically damaging characteristics of inflation is that it is felt by every voter, since it hits vital commodities like dairy products, bread, eggs, rent and gasoline and tends to impact less well-off people in a more extreme way. It's also demoralizing since no one knows when things will improve.

"I don't feel like I have any confidence on when the prices are going to go down, so it's been a little frustrating," Northern Virginia motorist Kristin Allstadt told CNN's Brian Todd on Wednesday at a gas station.

A threat many thought vanquished is roaring back. The corrosive political nature of inflation is being exacerbated by the fact that it hasn't really been a threat for decades in Western economies, so voters are unaccustomed to it. And because it affects food and gas -- purchases families cannot easily stop making -- it causes considerable anguish and difficult choices. One of the most pernicious impacts of inflation is that in order to fight it, the Federal Reserve may have to use harsh medicine in the form of further interest rate hikes that risk throwing the economy into recession and causing even more discomfort.

The inflation crisis is particularly uncomfortable for Biden since he's always prided himself on maintaining a genuine connection with middle class and blue collar Americans, which is central to his brand. But empathizing with the hurt many voters are feeling and fixing their problems are two different things.

The bad news for Democrats is that while Biden is predicting a fall in inflation, it is unlikely to be large enough to offset voter frustration in time for the midterms. The factors causing higher prices, including the war in Ukraine, Covid-19 disruptions in manufacturing hubs in Asia, and high demand and limited supplies are unlikely to ease in the short term. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday that there is unlikely to be a quick turnaround.

"My guess is that inflation will be lower next year than it was this year and quite likely will be lower in 2024 than in 2023. But I think is not going to be easy to bring inflation back to the kind of levels we have been accustomed to in recent decades," Summers said.

[dislaxxic]

"A double-edged sword”: Trump's thrilled to be back in the spotlight — but is it already backfiring?

Trump is the gift that keeps on giving — for Democrats. If he'd kept a low profile, cooperated with the FBI and shut his mouth, this election might have been the cakewalk they all expected it to be. But with the hearings and Dobbs and Trump endorsing a crop of fascist weirdos, it looks like it's going to be a real race. If Democrats actually save their majority this fall they should send Trump a case of Diet Coke and a very nice thank-you card.

..

[a fan]

This specific problem isn't helping the Democrats:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/14/politics ... index.html

White House assurances on inflation spark backlash from frustrated swing-state Democrats
Analysis by Stephen Collinson, CNN
Updated 12:10 AM ET, Thu July 14, 2022

Meh. You better get on your knees and pray that Republicans don't win the midterms.

You've got two tools in the tool chest for inflation, and your team despises either.....

-cut spending
-raise taxes

Those are your two choices to pull money out of circulation, reducing inflation.

So what is your team gonna do when the dog catches the car, Kram?

Because you have haven't done either for 20+ years and counting......


My guess? If they win, they'll keep right on spending, pass zero bills, beat Biden in 2024.....and then make Trump's spending look like a joke.

Borrowing ever penny, naturally.....

[youthathletics]

All that matters is that there is an (r) in office, havent yo figured that out yet. By the time the r's get in office, the wheels will have already fallen off the bus and they'll be on the upswing; you know, to clean you the d's mess.

[ggait]

So 538's forecast for house control was 86% R/14% D on June 1. 78R/22D today.

The House (due to small districts, gerry-mandering and geographical self sorting) has very few competitive seats. So that overall outcome is hard to move.

In contrast, the Senate forecast has gone from 60% R/40% D on June 1 to 37R/63D today. You can't gerry-mander a state. So you can see the overall impact of the Roe overturn and doofus GOP candidates backed by toxic DOPUS.

Which explains how the GOP leaders act.

McCarthy is still smooching Trump's butt like crazy. McConnell prays to be free of the Trump albatross, but can't really do or say anything to make that happen. Serves Mitch right -- impeaching Trump over 1/6 was the biggest no-brainer in the history of the world. He could have easily made it happen.

[a fan]

All that matters is that there is an (r) in office, havent yo figured that out yet

I'm holding out hope for the better natures of our Forum members to place a higher value on ideas than these stupid corrupt parties.

But you and Kram have to be stoked----that infrastructure bill surely threw some coin your way, gents!

[HooDat]

You've got two tools in the tool chest for inflation, and your team despises either.....

-cut spending
-raise taxes

Those are your two choices to pull money out of circulation, reducing inflation.

this might be better suited for the financial threads, but I am not sure I think that is the case. This is not a kind of inflation we have really faced in the era of modern finance. Inflation - right now anyway - is being fueled by a huge fed injection of money into the markets and a shortage of supply. I think our economists are all trained to think about inflation that is caused by excess demand and those are the only tools they understand how to use.

If I am right, the economy is going to be total sh!t unless something changes, but I am not betting on it because our problem is China is crashing - and that was where ALL our supply originates.

But, I think the way out of this coming recession is for the gov to figure out a way to invest heavily into production assets and infrastructure. It pains me to say it, but if I am right, it has to be the federal government on this. (I know you like hearing me say that afan )

If I am wrong, and someone tries it, oh boy buckle your seatbelts, because you just lit a fuse under the inflation bomb and it could auger the economy into the ground.

[a fan]

You've got two tools in the tool chest for inflation, and your team despises either.....

-cut spending
-raise taxes

Those are your two choices to pull money out of circulation, reducing inflation.

this might be better suited for the financial threads, but I am not sure I think that is the case. This is not a kind of inflation we have really faced in the era of modern finance. Inflation - right now anyway - is being fueled by a huge fed injection of money into the markets and a shortage of supply.

Agree. And the supply chain is the fuel to the fire. I think this will work its way out in a year or two.

But, I think the way out of this coming recession is for the gov to figure out a way to invest heavily into production assets and infrastructure. It pains me to say it, but if I am right, it has to be the federal government on this. (I know you like hearing me say that afan )

The infrastructure bills has stuff in it like car batteries for EV must be American made, and the cars themselves must be assembled here.

Stuff like that will work.

Make all Federal purchases mandate US chips. Simple PO's like that from the Fed snap things into line in a big hurry.

If I am wrong, and someone tries it, oh boy buckle your seatbelts, because you just lit a fuse under the inflation bomb and it could auger the economy into the ground.

I'm not seeing what you're seeing. If nothing else, China has all the motivation in the world to continue to fill US purchase orders.

[HooDat]

I'm not seeing what you're seeing. If nothing else, China has all the motivation in the world to continue to fill US purchase orders.

Yes, China does, but for some reason (that I don't have insight into) it seems to me like they are worried about their ability to do so over the medium to long term. I'd love to hear from someone more connected to China than I am, but the sense I get is their economy is in more trouble than ours. Which is why Xi is so twitchy and puffing up over Taiwan.

[a fan]

I'd love to hear from someone more connected to China than I am, but the sense I get is their economy is in more trouble than ours. Which is why Xi is so twitchy and puffing up over Taiwan.

And it's also why filling orders for Export are key, so long at they are able.

I don't see China being the problem. And I know NOTHING about China......but they want money as much as the next guy.

[dislaxxic]

Anybody know the level of US paper (debt) the Chinese hold at the moment?

..