Preseason Top 10

[MDGrad2012]

The “the team who ended last year #1 should always start the next season #1” thing is silly logic. They’re not the same team as the year before, it’s not the 2022 Maryland team defending the title in 2023, it’s the 2023 team. You inevitably run yourself into an incredulous #1 pick if there’s a total shock champion, like when UNC won in 2016 and then some people had them #1 to start 2017 and they were hardly a Top 10 team.

This. I do think MD should be #1 (obviously I have my biases), but that is based on Wierman, McNaney, and the incredible stable of poles they're returning, not on the fact that they won the title. I think their SSDMs are going to obviously drop off, but still be above average. People forget how good Coffman was in 2021. I think he had a better year than Puglise that year.

The offense loses a lot, but I think it is totally reasonable to look at their talent and see somewhere between 13-15 gpg. That could be enough with the possession advantage they'll have and the defense. When it comes to the rankings, to me UVA is the other possible choice for #1. I can't stop thinking about the 2nd game. Petey and Shellenberger are UVA's most impactful returners and they both got dominated by dudes MD has coming back. MD returns 6 guys who got USILA AA honors last year (2 first, 1 third, 3 HM). Virginia returns 7 (1 first, 1 second, 1 third, 4 HM). ND and Georgetown, if you include their transfers, have 5 each. I don't think those lists fully represent talent, but it definitely reflects the fact that MD is a reasonable candidate for #1 based on returning talent and not just because they won it all last year.

[jrn19]

I would have MD #1 to start next year as well, but for the reasons you outlined, not because they won the title last year. And if someone wanted to put UVA or Princeton above them, I would listen to that argument. It's not going to be the '22 Terps out there in '23, much as I would love to have that every year.

[Gobigred]

Those of us who feel the reigning-champ-has-to-be-#1 theory is nonsense can still feel Maryland should be preseason #1 in 2023, based upon returning rosters...and the fact that John Tillman may be the best coach in college lacrosse.

[HooDat]

I'm a tweener on the topic of reigning champ and pre-season #1.

I fall into the camp of, you should begin with the presumption that they are #1 and have a good reason to knock them out of the top spot.

The terps make it pretty easy to slot them up top this year - so I am really confused as to why THIS year of all years we are having this debate?


.... oh, that's right! because ND is supposed to be #1!

[MoralTerpitude]

Regarding UVa, I think Moore’s graduation will have a major impact on their offensive production, and will put alot of pressure on Shellenberger. Aside from Moore, only Shell averaged 2 assists/game, and there are no other candidates among their current team to play the second QB role. I think this will probably affect a guy like Cormier the most; he’s a guy who thrives on offball movement to take advantage of defensive rotation opening up space (particularly near the crease), then being found by Shell or Moore. He needs to be fed by creative players to be effective. Same is true for Dickson to a lesser degree. Neither of those guys can create alot of offense on their own against quality defenses. This means Shellenberger will likely focus even more on playmaking, leading to shooting less than he already was.

We’ll see how Schutz develops… perhaps UVa will rely more on runs from midfield to create offense. Without the second QB, their 2023 offense will look very different than 2022. (Caveat being that I don’t know too much about their incoming class.)

[Wheels]

Shellenberger is following the path of Jared Bernhardt. Crazy athleticism, work ethic, and talent but not comfortable with just taking over a game. Too much of a team player. Too unselfish. He's going to become self-aware this season and just start taking over games. If he flips that switch, and I think he will, he's not going to need a Moore-like second QB. He's going to put so much pressure on defenses that a lot of his teammates end up with pretty easy scoring opportunities. All UVA needs is a couple of players up top who can win match-ups if teams load up too much on Shellenberger. UVA has guys that can do that in Shutz and McConvey.

[lorin]

Shellenberger is following the path of Jared Bernhardt. Crazy athleticism, work ethic, and talent but not comfortable with just taking over a game. Too much of a team player. Too unselfish. He's going to become self-aware this season and just start taking over games. If he flips that switch, and I think he will, he's not going to need a Moore-like second QB. He's going to put so much pressure on defenses that a lot of his teammates end up with pretty easy scoring opportunities. All UVA needs is a couple of players up top who can win match-ups if teams load up too much on Shellenberger. UVA has guys that can do that in Shutz and McConvey.

I agree Shellenberger will be Tewaaraton winner or Handley

[MoralTerpitude]

Shellenberger is following the path of Jared Bernhardt. Crazy athleticism, work ethic, and talent but not comfortable with just taking over a game. Too much of a team player. Too unselfish. He's going to become self-aware this season and just start taking over games. If he flips that switch, and I think he will, he's not going to need a Moore-like second QB. He's going to put so much pressure on defenses that a lot of his teammates end up with pretty easy scoring opportunities. All UVA needs is a couple of players up top who can win match-ups if teams load up too much on Shellenberger. UVA has guys that can do that in Shutz and McConvey.

Bernhardt was always more of a pure scorer than Shellenberger. He averaged 2.2, 3, and 3.3 goals/game before his insane senior season, while only averaging 0.9, 1.6, and 1.5 assists/game during those same seasons. Shellenberger has flipped those averages his first two seasons: 2.1 and 2.0 goals/game, and 2.3 and 2.75 assists/game. Perhaps he will develop into a Bernhardt-level goal scorer, but I don't think he is quite that player.

Bernhardt also had Wisnauskas, Long, and Demaio to take the pressure off of him from both a scoring and creating standpoint. I would argue that with Moore gone, there isn't a single UVa attacker or o-mid that has the combined skillset of any of those three to help support Shellenberger.

That's why I put teams like Cornell and Georgetown above UVa. While Shellenberger is perhaps the most skilled player in the college game, I don't see enough support from the rest of the offense, while the other three have better second and third options.

[HooDat]

Regarding UVa, I think Moore’s graduation will have a major impact on their offensive production, and will put alot of pressure on Shellenberger. [...] Without the second QB, their 2023 offense will look very different than 2022. (Caveat being that I don’t know too much about their incoming class.)

It is hard to overstate just how good Moore was. And the fact that the overall points leader in UVA history (a program that has had a lot of legendary offensive talent roll through) was on the field and we were talking about a kid two years his junior - well that tells you a lot about Shelly.

Moore will be missed. The offense will have to look different without him on the field, but I am pretty confident the 23 version of the Hoos will be able to put the ball in the back of the net.

[Antonio114]

I think Shellenberger McConvey Shutz and Cormier is a stronger top 4 than Murphy Long Malaver and Brennan, but MD has some potential in their depth after that. Maltz is still a heck of a player. Koras has looked great at times. Expect a big jump in Murphy's points next year too. UVA might have a slight edge on O when it all shakes out, but I still have MD over UVA to start next year since they are at least a little stronger at x, in goal, and on close D. Something like:

1. MD
2. UVA
3. Princeton
4. Yale
5. Cornell
6. GTown
7. ND

After that its a gap then OSU, Duke, Penn in some order. If Jacksonville somehow gets Waldbaum back then maybe they deserve a spot in the conversation. Don't know the details of his eligibility but it would be his third(!) year in a row listed as a senior on the IL stats pages, which seems impossible.

[wgdsr]

I think Shellenberger McConvey Shutz and Cormier is a stronger top 4 than Murphy Long Malaver and Brennan, but MD has some potential in their depth after that. Maltz is still a heck of a player. Koras has looked great at times. Expect a big jump in Murphy's points next year too. UVA might have a slight edge on O when it all shakes out, but I still have MD over UVA to start next year since they are at least a little stronger at x, in goal, and on close D. Something like:

1. MD
2. UVA
3. Princeton
4. Yale
5. Cornell
6. GTown
7. ND

After that its a gap then OSU, Duke, Penn in some order. If Jacksonville somehow gets Waldbaum back then maybe they deserve a spot in the conversation. Don't know the details of his eligibility but it would be his third(!) year in a row listed as a senior on the IL stats pages, which seems impossible.

i doubt the il stats pages keeps track of everyone's eligibility accurately.
if waldbaum caught a medical redshirt in 2018 and/or 2020, he'd maybe have eligibility. 2018 doesn't seem likely as he played in a game in the back half of the season, and 2020 he played only in their final game of 4. so he would've had to have gotten injured/reinjured then. if it was only one of them, he'd then have to petition for '21 to be his covid year vs. '20, as d3 got both but d1 only granted '20.

but no one has explained kirst's eligibility exception at rutgers after insider knowledge of it maybe going thru, so maybe it's just a world of letting kids play until whenever post-covid.

[jrn19]

Waldbaum was a freshman in 2018, sophomore in 2019, COVID year in 2020, so a senior in 2021 but had 3rd year eligibility, and, and then had his final year of eligibility in 2022. No clue how he could possibly have another year in 2023.

[wgdsr]

Waldbaum was a freshman in 2018, sophomore in 2019, COVID year in 2020, so a senior in 2021 but had 3rd year eligibility, and, and then had his final year of eligibility in 2022. No clue how he could possibly have another year in 2023.

i edited my post above. he'd need medical for both or if only one of them... a petition granted on 2021 being his covid . which i'd say all is unlikely. but ya never know anymore.

somebody had brought savio up before, and that was zero chance.

[lilax]

My biggest question for UVA is how is their O Mid depth?

I feel like they have some good complimentary pieces, but no proven guy who can take a game over. Outside of Conner, Schultz, and Dickson, they did not have any other middies register double-digit goals.

It puts a lot of pressure on the attack if they don't have many middies who are constant threats.

They had 6 double-digit middies in 2021 and 5 in 2019.

Is that a position where Sunderland and Terenzi step into immediately?

[wgdsr]

https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/ ... ille/58946

the source for sports. do i believe them near 100%. no. no, i do not. but they're putting it out there.

[wgdsr]

My biggest question for UVA is how is their O Mid depth?

I feel like they have some good complimentary pieces, but no proven guy who can take a game over. Outside of Conner, Schultz, and Dickson, they did not have any other middies register double-digit goals.

It puts a lot of pressure on the attack if they don't have many middies who are constant threats.

They had 6 double-digit middies in 2021 and 5 in 2019.

Is that a position where Sunderland and Terenzi step into immediately?

they ran 6 guys with the 2nd mids and occasionally the 1sts w injuries. and the 1s got a large bulk of the runs, some decent production. not surprising they didn't see a big scorer on the 2s.

they lose moore but have at least 5 guys hoo didn't play last year who'll be competing into the 1st 6 + 2nd mids, with 2 or maybe 3 getting spots. and another in maybe bienkowski who has been nicked. they'll be loaded as can be coming into a season on offense.

defense has got to upgrade performance. it's possible, but the big question for competing for a title. offense wasn't great when not cruising, mostly panic or lack of composure. that has to get better.

[10stone5]

USA lacrosse magazine has started rolling out their count down

https://www.usalaxmagazine.com/college/ ... sion-i-men

https://www.usalaxmagazine.com/college/ ... sion-i-men

https://www.usalaxmagazine.com/college/ ... sion-i-men

https://www.usalaxmagazine.com/college/ ... sion-i-men

6 Yale
7 Princeton
8 Duke
9 Penn
10 Rutgers
11 Ohio State
12 Delaware
13 Brown
14 Harvard
15 UNC
16 Jacksonville
17 Boston U
18 Denver
19 Richmond
20 Navy
21 Villanova
22 Army
23 Loyal
24 Utah
T25 Cuse
T25 Hopkins

Jacksonville and Saint Joe’s, both, are absolutely stacked.
And also, St. Joe’s with lots of size on that roster,
as well as a very good schedule - with the move to the A-10.
Those two are teams who could very well compete for top
10 to 15.