All Things Russia & Ukraine

[CU88]

Never trust Putin.

Yesterday he signs agreement to allow shipping of grain out of Ukraine ports:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ey-russia/


Then within 24 hours he bombs port:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ine-grain/

[old salt]

The battle for the 2 bridges crossing the lower Dneiper River -- 1 just E of the city of Kherson, & 1 upstream at Kakhovka, will be key to whether or not Russian forces can continue westward & threaten Odesa, or if they'll have forces cut off N of the Dneiper & stall their advance. It's starting as a battle between Ukraine's new HIMARS & Russia's air defense capability to counter them.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/us-himars ... cal-bridge

Latest from the BBC :
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62278010
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia of "barbarism" after a missile attack on the port of Odesa.
A landmark deal to resume Ukraine's grain exports - signed hours before the strike - now hangs in the balance.
Moscow has not commented on the attack and Kyiv has said preparations are still under way to resume the grain exports despite the apparent breach.
But just hours after the agreement was signed, two Kalibr missiles hit Odesa port, according to the Ukrainian military's southern command centre. Another two missiles were shot down by air defence systems, it added.
The strike caused no significant damage to the port, the command centre said.
The Kremlin has so far made no public comment on the attack, however the Turkish government, which brokered the deal, said Russian officials had denied responsibility.
"In our contact with Russia, the Russians told us that they had absolutely nothing to do with this attack and that they were examining the issue very closely and in detail," said Defence Minister Hulusai Akar.

In another development, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said Ukraine could not win against Russia.
Speaking at an international conference of conservatives, he said the war could only be ended by peace talks between Washington and Moscow.
"A new strategy is needed, which should focus on peace negotiations instead of trying to win the war," said Mr Orban, whose views on the conflict are often at odds with those of other EU leaders.

In the latest fighting on the ground, British defence officials said Russian troops in the Kherson region risked being cut off from their supply lines by Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian forces have used new long-range US supplied missile systems to target the Antonovsky Bridge in Kherson.
If the bridge were to be destroyed, Russian supply lines would be severely stretched.

This article has a helpful map of the mined areas :
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-61759692
Officials say the plan includes:
Ukrainian vessels guiding grain ships in and out through mined port waters
Russia agreeing to a truce while shipments move *
Turkey inspecting ships to allay Russian fears of weapons smuggling
Russian exports of grain and fertiliser via the Black Sea permitted
* the missle strike on Odesa may be a reminder from the Russians that they can still threaten the ports.

[PizzaSnake]

Ukraine needs to eliminate the Kerch Straits bridge. That would fnck the Russian supply lines to Crimea and southern Ukraine.

[a fan]

Speaking at an international conference of conservatives, he said the war could only be ended by peace talks between Washington and Moscow.
"A new strategy is needed, which should focus on peace negotiations instead of trying to win the war," said Mr Orban, whose views on the conflict are often at odds with those of other EU leaders.

If you ask me, this is a big reason why peace talks aren't happening.... and is part of why Zelensky is telling other leaders to F right off.

Peace talks between Washington and Moscow?? Here, Orban is telling Zelensky that he's not the leader of a sovereign nation in full international view.

For all the "we have to think and understand Putin" pieces....maybe the military wonks ought to spend five minutes trying to understand Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.

[PizzaSnake]

Speaking at an international conference of conservatives, he said the war could only be ended by peace talks between Washington and Moscow.
"A new strategy is needed, which should focus on peace negotiations instead of trying to win the war," said Mr Orban, whose views on the conflict are often at odds with those of other EU leaders.

If you ask me, this is a big reason why peace talks aren't happening.... and is part of why Zelensky is telling other leaders to F right off.

Peace talks between Washington and Moscow?? Here, Orban is telling Zelensky that he's not the leader of a sovereign nation in full international view.

For all the "we have to think and understand Putin" pieces....maybe the military wonks ought to spend five minutes trying to understand Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.

Fnck Orban. Authoritarian d-bag.

[MDlaxfan76]

Ok the treasury piece linked uses “so called” in quotes and describes it as Russia/Putin’s declared which actually proves something different than the claim being made.

...& I prefaced with "declared".

Why “parrot” those propaganda points….it’s a choice.

Because it is not propaganda. It's a simple way to refer to a specific geographic area, more precise than "the Donbas"', & it is in common use by media for that purpose.

The simple way to say it is is "Ukraine's Donbas", etc. simply make clear, each time, that is is Ukraine's territory, not some "independent" much less Russian area.

Want to understand a bit about Ukraine?

https://www.amazon.com/Mr-Jones-James-N ... B089XVJB9S

inspiration for George Orwell's Animal Farm

[DocBarrister]

Too many morons in the press and elsewhere have tried to advocate for a “peace” where Ukraine surrenders territory.

As many of us have stated (repeatedly), that is an idiotic, ignorant, uninformed delusion. Putin has one major objective in Ukraine, and that is regime change.

Don’t need to believe me. Just ask Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign Minister, who finally revealed the truth (reported by some rather Russia-friendly media outlets):

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that the occupying country will help the people of Ukraine to get rid of an "anti-people and anti-historical regime".

Lavrov said this at a meeting with the ambassadors of the member countries of the League of Arab States in Cairo, quoted by Meduza

"We feel sorry for the Ukrainian people, who deserve far better. We feel sorry for Ukrainian history, which is collapsing before our eyes, and we feel sorry for those who have succumbed to the state propaganda of the Kyiv regime which aims to make Ukraine an eternal enemy of Russia.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022 ... /index.amp

Ukraine latest updates: Russia says aim is regime change in Kyiv

… Lavrov confirms regime change plans for Ukraine

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says, in contrast to earlier statements, that Russia is seeking to overthrow the Ukrainian government.

“We will definitely help the Ukrainian people to free themselves from the regime that is absolutely anti-people and anti-history,” Lavrov said in Cairo.

The Russian and Ukrainian people would live together in the future, he said.

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/live ... -kyiv-says

I would hope that this blunt statement (to a relatively Russia-friendly audience of diplomats) shatters the delusions of some of the pro-Putin advocates out there. I am skeptical ….

In order for this war to end, Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

DocBarrister

[a fan]

I would hope that this blunt statement (to a relatively Russia-friendly audience of diplomats) shatters the delusions of some of the pro-Putin advocates out there. I am skeptical ….

In order for this war to end, Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

DocBarrister

Great.

A. So....what's your plan for doing that, Doc? Nukes? Send in US Troops?

B. You realize that you now have only one guy to blame for "Ukraine not winning the war", right?

[CU88]

Speaking at an international conference of conservatives, he said the war could only be ended by peace talks between Washington and Moscow.
"A new strategy is needed, which should focus on peace negotiations instead of trying to win the war," said Mr Orban, whose views on the conflict are often at odds with those of other EU leaders.

If you ask me, this is a big reason why peace talks aren't happening.... and is part of why Zelensky is telling other leaders to F right off.

Peace talks between Washington and Moscow?? Here, Orban is telling Zelensky that he's not the leader of a sovereign nation in full international view.

For all the "we have to think and understand Putin" pieces....maybe the military wonks ought to spend five minutes trying to understand Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.

Fnck Orban. Authoritarian d-bag.

Do the opposite of what Orban says

[DocBarrister]

Ok the treasury piece linked uses “so called” in quotes and describes it as Russia/Putin’s declared which actually proves something different than the claim being made.

...& I prefaced with "declared".

Why “parrot” those propaganda points….it’s a choice.

Because it is not propaganda. It's a simple way to refer to a specific geographic area, more precise than "the Donbas"', & it is in common use by media for that purpose.

The difference is that “the Donbas” exists.

In contrast, the DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR exist only in the propagandistic lexicon of Putin’s lies.

It is obvious that you choose to use DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR because you sympathize with the perspective of Putin and Russia on this war.

You have the right to adopt that view, but I think you should be honest about it.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

I would hope that this blunt statement (to a relatively Russia-friendly audience of diplomats) shatters the delusions of some of the pro-Putin advocates out there. I am skeptical ….

In order for this war to end, Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

DocBarrister

Great.

A. So....what's your plan for doing that, Doc? Nukes? Send in US Troops?

B. You realize that you now have only one guy to blame for "Ukraine not winning the war", right?

What is YOUR alternative? Give up Ukraine to Putin?

Putin will NOT stop this war until he effects regime change in Ukraine. Maybe he will pause, or agree to a temporary cease fire to rebuild his forces, but he will NOT stop until he changes the government in Ukraine. He has been waging an eight-year war against Ukraine. He is not going to stop until he LOSES THIS WAR.

And if you give Putin Ukraine in exchange for “peace in our time?”

Do you think Putin, having witnessed the West surrender Ukraine, will stop there? Do you think NATO membership will stop his invasion of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania?

You still don’t understand, do you?

If Putin wins in Ukraine, he will invade NATO members next. Because that is what Peter the Great would do, and he fancies himself a successor to Peter the Great. And that means WWIII with the United States directly at war with Russia.

For those who might not know their history, Peter the Great never truly stopped waging wars. He waged a war against Sweden for two decades. He threw in a war against the Ottoman Empire while still fighting up North. And not long before he died, he started a war against the Persians. THAT is the lunatic that Putin emulates.

If you want to avoid WWIII, then we must defeat Putin and Russia IN UKRAINE.

DocBarrister

[a fan]

I would hope that this blunt statement (to a relatively Russia-friendly audience of diplomats) shatters the delusions of some of the pro-Putin advocates out there. I am skeptical ….

In order for this war to end, Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

DocBarrister

Great.

A. So....what's your plan for doing that, Doc? Nukes? Send in US Troops?

B. You realize that you now have only one guy to blame for "Ukraine not winning the war", right?

What is YOUR alternative? Give up Ukraine to Putin?

Asked and answered already.

Putin will NOT stop this war until he effects regime change in Ukraine. Maybe he will pause, or agree to a temporary cease fire to rebuild his forces, but he will NOT stop until he changes the government in Ukraine. He has been waging an eight-year war against Ukraine. He is not going to stop until he LOSES THIS WAR.

And if you give Putin Ukraine in exchange for “peace in our time?”

Do you think Putin, having witnessed the West surrender Ukraine, will stop there? Do you think NATO membership will stop his invasion of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania?

You still don’t understand, do you?

So now you're a full on right wing Neo-Con, Doc? I've heard this tune before. Same BS handed out before the Gulf War. And the Iraq War.

Bush's "preemptive war"....that's what you want?

Hilarious listening to a latte liberal telling us how we MUST "start a war to stop a war".

If Putin wins in Ukraine, he will invade NATO members next. Because that is what Peter the Great would do, and he fancies himself a successor to Peter the Great. And that means WWIII with the United States directly at war with Russia.

Same reason given for both the Korean and the Vietnam war....but back then it was called the Domino theory.

Yeah---hard pass, Doc. Thanks but no thanks.

If you want to avoid WWIII, then we must defeat Putin and Russia IN UKRAINE.

That's odd, Doc----you forgot to tell us how. HOW do we do that, Doc?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Ok the treasury piece linked uses “so called” in quotes and describes it as Russia/Putin’s declared which actually proves something different than the claim being made.

...& I prefaced with "declared".

Why “parrot” those propaganda points….it’s a choice.

Because it is not propaganda. It's a simple way to refer to a specific geographic area, more precise than "the Donbas"', & it is in common use by media for that purpose.

The difference is that “the Donbas” exists.

In contrast, the DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR exist only in the propagandistic lexicon of Putin’s lies.

It is obvious that you choose to use DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR because you sympathize with the perspective of Putin and Russia on this war.

You have the right to adopt that view, but I think you should be honest about it.

DocBarrister

He chooses to parrot the propaganda.

[old salt]

Why “parrot” those propaganda points….it’s a choice.

Because it is not propaganda. It's a simple way to refer to a specific geographic area, more precise than "the Donbas"', & it is in common use by media for that purpose.

The difference is that “the Donbas” exists.

In contrast, the DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR exist only in the propagandistic lexicon of Putin’s lies.

It is obvious that you choose to use DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR because you sympathize with the perspective of Putin and Russia on this war.

You have the right to adopt that view, but I think you should be honest about it.

DocBarrister

He chooses to parrot the propaganda.

...this is absurd PC trolling & suppression of free speech. Accuracy is not Advocacy.
Not mentioning DPR/DNR/LPR/LNR is not going to make them go away.

Actual boundaries do matter. Saying just "Ukraine's Donbas" is like saying the Southwest US without specifying the states, or parts of states being referenced.
The Donbas is not the same territory that is being claimed as the LNR/LPR/DNR/DPR.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/how-d ... t-5047949/
How do you identify locations subject to the new U.S. embargo on the DNR & LNR?

The new U.S. embargo on the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) regions of Ukraine present U.S. companies with the complicated task of determining whether a transaction or account involves a person located within either region.

The situation is similar to the challenge presented by the 2014 Crimea embargo. To comply with the embargo on Crimea, many U.S. companies developed lists of city names and postal codes associated with the Crimea region and added those locations to automated screening programs to identify transactions and customer accounts belonging to persons in or ordinarily resident in Crimea. A similar approach could be deployed to comply with the new embargo, with the added wrinkle that the two self-proclaimed republics each currently control only part of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (administrative regions of Ukraine).

There are variety of tools available online to identify postal codes and cities or towns located in the two oblasts at issue, including those available here, here, and here. Those tools will be over-inclusive based on the current line of contact between Ukrainian forces and the separatists. To determine whether a specific location is subject to separatist control, companies will need to take an additional step and determine whether the location is east of the line of contact. Detailed maps of the current line of contact can be found here and here.

As noted in our prior post, the territory subject to the embargo could change depending on how the situation develops in Ukraine.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Why “parrot” those propaganda points….it’s a choice.

Because it is not propaganda. It's a simple way to refer to a specific geographic area, more precise than "the Donbas"', & it is in common use by media for that purpose.

The difference is that “the Donbas” exists.

In contrast, the DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR exist only in the propagandistic lexicon of Putin’s lies.

It is obvious that you choose to use DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR because you sympathize with the perspective of Putin and Russia on this war.

You have the right to adopt that view, but I think you should be honest about it.

DocBarrister

He chooses to parrot the propaganda.

...this is absurd PC trolling & suppression of free speech. Accuracy is not Advocacy.
Not mentioning DPR/DNR/LPR/LNR is not going to make them go away.

Actual boundaries do matter. Saying just "Ukraine's Donbas" is like saying the Southwest US without specifying the states, or parts of states being referenced.
The Donbas is not the same territory that is being claimed as the LNR/LPR/DNR/DPR.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/how-d ... t-5047949/
How do you identify locations subject to the new U.S. embargo on the DNR & LNR?

The new U.S. embargo on the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) regions of Ukraine present U.S. companies with the complicated task of determining whether a transaction or account involves a person located within either region.

The situation is similar to the challenge presented by the 2014 Crimea embargo. To comply with the embargo on Crimea, many U.S. companies developed lists of city names and postal codes associated with the Crimea region and added those locations to automated screening programs to identify transactions and customer accounts belonging to persons in or ordinarily resident in Crimea. A similar approach could be deployed to comply with the new embargo, with the added wrinkle that the two self-proclaimed republics each currently control only part of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (administrative regions of Ukraine).

There are variety of tools available online to identify postal codes and cities or towns located in the two oblasts at issue, including those available here, here, and here. Those tools will be over-inclusive based on the current line of contact between Ukrainian forces and the separatists. To determine whether a specific location is subject to separatist control, companies will need to take an additional step and determine whether the location is east of the line of contact. Detailed maps of the current line of contact can be found here and here.

As noted in our prior post, the territory subject to the embargo could change depending on how the situation develops in Ukraine.

Stop whining

[old salt]

Why “parrot” those propaganda points….it’s a choice.

Because it is not propaganda. It's a simple way to refer to a specific geographic area, more precise than "the Donbas"', & it is in common use by media for that purpose.

The difference is that “the Donbas” exists.

In contrast, the DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR exist only in the propagandistic lexicon of Putin’s lies.

It is obvious that you choose to use DPR/DNR and LPR/LNR because you sympathize with the perspective of Putin and Russia on this war.

You have the right to adopt that view, but I think you should be honest about it.

DocBarrister

He chooses to parrot the propaganda.

...this is absurd PC trolling & suppression of free speech. Accuracy is not Advocacy.
Not mentioning DPR/DNR/LPR/LNR is not going to make them go away.

Actual boundaries do matter. Saying just "Ukraine's Donbas" is like saying the Southwest US without specifying the states, or parts of states being referenced.
The Donbas is not the same territory that is being claimed as the LNR/LPR/DNR/DPR.

https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/how-d ... t-5047949/
How do you identify locations subject to the new U.S. embargo on the DNR & LNR?

The new U.S. embargo on the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) and Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) regions of Ukraine present U.S. companies with the complicated task of determining whether a transaction or account involves a person located within either region.

The situation is similar to the challenge presented by the 2014 Crimea embargo. To comply with the embargo on Crimea, many U.S. companies developed lists of city names and postal codes associated with the Crimea region and added those locations to automated screening programs to identify transactions and customer accounts belonging to persons in or ordinarily resident in Crimea. A similar approach could be deployed to comply with the new embargo, with the added wrinkle that the two self-proclaimed republics each currently control only part of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (administrative regions of Ukraine).

There are variety of tools available online to identify postal codes and cities or towns located in the two oblasts at issue, including those available here, here, and here. Those tools will be over-inclusive based on the current line of contact between Ukrainian forces and the separatists. To determine whether a specific location is subject to separatist control, companies will need to take an additional step and determine whether the location is east of the line of contact. Detailed maps of the current line of contact can be found here and here.

As noted in our prior post, the territory subject to the embargo could change depending on how the situation develops in Ukraine.

Stop whining

Stop trolling.

[old salt]

From Axios:

If the Kremlin follows through with its purported plans to annex large swaths of southern and eastern Ukraine, as the White House expects, it could fundamentally shift the stakes of the war and make a negotiated settlement all but impossible.

Why it matters: Kyiv and its western backers hope an influx of NATO-caliber weaponry will allow Ukraine to reverse Russia’s gains. But if Russia follows the “playbook” the White House laid out this week, Moscow will claim that fighting is now taking place on Russian soil.

Driving the news: White House spokesperson John Kirby said Tuesday that the U.S. has intelligence indicating the Kremlin is "reviewing detailed plans" to annex four Ukrainian oblasts, or regions: Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk.

• A senior German official tells Axios they share the U.S. assessment about planned annexations.
From Vladimir Putin’s perspective, annexing the four regions dramatically raises the stakes of defending them — and potentially the tools he’s willing to use to do so.
• Western countries would never recognize such annexations, but the move could scramble the risk-reward calculus for providing arms and political support.
• For Ukraine, the threat is more existential: partition, long-term destabilization and the demise of any possible peace deal. It also increases the incentive to counterattack now, before Russia can put any annexation plans into practice.
The big picture: The four oblasts are contiguous and would link Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014, to Russia.
• Russian forces took Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine in the early days of the war. Then, after failing to capture Kyiv, they launched a massive offensive in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
• Putin claimed full control of Luhansk earlier this month and is now turning his attention to Donetsk.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov acknowledged Wednesday that Russia's military ambitions extend beyond the Donbas, to Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and "a number of other territories" — including potentially Ukrainian-held territory to the West.

Zoom in: In Russian-held Kherson, Russia has installed a puppet government, restricted the internet, mandated the use of the ruble and started issuing Russian passports.
• Kirby said the U.S. believes the next steps of the "annexation playbook" will include a fraudulent referendum on joining Russia, perhaps in mid-September to align with regional elections in Russia.
• Kirby vowed the U.S. and its allies would respond with stiff sanctions and added, "We would remind Mr. Putin that over time he may prove unable to hold this territory."

Such an audacious move would actually be a "logical next step" for Putin, contends Alexander Gabuev, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment.
• Knowing that Ukraine seeks to retake these territories, Putin could up the ante by immediately bringing them under the Russian nuclear umbrella and responding to any Ukrainian counteroffensive with the threat of a tactical nuclear strike, Gabuev says.
• "I think the calculation is that this will be the defining moment where the Western leaders will get very cautious and the goals will shift from retaking all of the pre-Feb. 24 possessions to keeping what Zelensky has right now," Gabuev says.

The other side: By declaring a massive chunk of Ukraine to be part of Russia, Putin would effectively be committing to a large, sustained military presence inside Ukraine and risking embarrassment if Ukrainian counterattacks prove successful.
• But it could also further his objectives of keeping Ukraine divided and weak and placing wedges between Kyiv and its Western backers — and between those backers themselves.
• That's a bet Putin may be willing to make. "The risk appetite of this guy is very different from the risk appetite of Joe Biden," Gabuev says.

Part II: A hinge moment for Ukraine

The annexation threat comes during a "transitional phase" of the war, says Michael Kofman, a leading expert on Russia's military at CNA.
State of play: Russia has been utilizing its artillery advantage over the last three months to make gradual progress in the Donbas.
• CIA director Bill Burns said Wednesday that perhaps 15,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and 45,000 wounded in the war. While Burns says Kyiv's losses are likely "a little less than that," they include some of Ukraine's best-trained troops.
• But Ukraine is now hitting back with longer-range artillery of its own. The Russian offensive doesn't seem to be over, Kofman says, but it hasn't yielded any clear progress over the past two weeks.
"I think they're about to run out of steam," MI6 director Richard Moore said today at the Aspen Security Forum. "Our assessment is that the Russians will increasingly find it difficult to supply manpower and materiel over the next few weeks."
• The Ukrainians, meanwhile, have been conducting small-scale counteroffensives, including around Kherson city.
• "It looks very clearly like a positional game in order to put themselves in place for an offensive down the line," Kofman says, noting that Ukrainian forces are doing the same in southern Donbas and in Zaporizhzhia.

What to watch: Ukraine has a clear incentive to make its move before September to try to disrupt any Russian annexation plans.
• Russia, meanwhile, seems to be attempting to secure the boundaries of Kherson and the other oblasts it controls without pushing beyond them, Kofman says, potentially setting the stage for annexation.
• "They would be taking a huge risk trying to annex Kherson because they might lose a large part of it," he says. Kofman thinks the Kremlin may wait until the military outlook in Kherson is clearer before announcing its next moves.

Part III: Where annexations would leave the war

Because the U.S. wouldn't recognize the annexations, the Biden administration's position on the deployment of U.S.-made weaponry — which Kyiv has promised only to use on Ukrainian soil — is unlikely to change.
• But if the Kremlin sets new red lines, all sides will have to reconsider their own risk calculus.
• While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would presumably want to fight full force, Gabuev says, some European countries could feel differently with nuclear weapons on the table and Putin threatening to throttle the gas supply.
Russian annexations would certainly change the diplomatic calculus.
• Western officials have expressed hope that their arms shipments will help create a more favorable status quo, allowing Ukraine to negotiate a cease-fire from a position of strength.
• But Zelensky has vowed not to sign a deal that cedes territory to Russia — let alone nearly one-fifth of the country.
Where it stands: Lavrov said Wednesday that now is not the time for peace talks. It remains unclear whether it ever will be, as far as Putin is concerned.
• Burns noted that Putin repeats in private what he's said in public: "Ukraine is not a real country" and "it's his entitlement, Russia's entitlement, to dominate Ukraine."

The bottom line: Annexations could be one step in that direction. But they could also be one more bad bet from a Russian leader who has already made several in this war.

^^^^ = all the more reason to use the precise terms LNR/LPR/DNR/DPR when referring to the territory in SE Ukraine that Russia claims to be independent & intends to annex (according to US intel).

[old salt]

Do you think Putin, having witnessed the West surrender Ukraine, will stop there? Do you think NATO membership will stop his invasion of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania?

You still don’t understand, do you?

If Putin wins in Ukraine, he will invade NATO members next. Because that is what Peter the Great would do, and he fancies himself a successor to Peter the Great.

If you want to avoid WWIII, then we must defeat Putin and Russia IN UKRAINE.

DocBarrister

...serious question Doc : do you support military action by US forces to help Ukraine to win back all the territory lost to Russia ? ...since 2014 ?

Do you really think the Ukrainians can do it by themselves with just military aid from the west ?
Not just wishful thinking, but an actual prediction.

[MDlaxfan76]

Ok the treasury piece linked uses “so called” in quotes and describes it as Russia/Putin’s declared which actually proves something different than the claim being made.

...& I prefaced with "declared".

Why “parrot” those propaganda points….it’s a choice.

Because it is not propaganda. It's a simple way to refer to a specific geographic area, more precise than "the Donbas"', & it is in common use by media for that purpose.

The simple way to say it is is "Ukraine's Donbas", etc. simply make clear, each time, that is is Ukraine's territory, not some "independent" much less Russian area.

Want to understand a bit about Ukraine?

https://www.amazon.com/Mr-Jones-James-N ... B089XVJB9S

inspiration for George Orwell's Animal Farm

I repeat; use whatever "precise" terms you wish (Donbas, LNR/LPR/DNR/DPR etc), but be clear that they are Ukraine's territory. Anything else opens the question, bolstering Putin's propaganda.

They are not merely "in" SE Ukraine...they are wholly part of Ukraine.

re a fan, I reject the comparison to Iraq. Putin has told anyone paying attention what he intends, and he has demonstrated those intentions to very bloody effect. there's zero basis to believe he will stop. We don't know the timing of each forward action, but we know that there's no price for the Russian people or the world that he isn't willing to pay for his objectives. He'll only be stopped when he's stopped by fellow Russians or otherwise removed from power, dead, etc, and the most likely way that will occur is if the Russian military turns on him. And it's not reasonable to expect that to occur when the Russian military is not thoroughly defeated on the battlefield.

[MDlaxfan76]

Do you think Putin, having witnessed the West surrender Ukraine, will stop there? Do you think NATO membership will stop his invasion of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania?

You still don’t understand, do you?

If Putin wins in Ukraine, he will invade NATO members next. Because that is what Peter the Great would do, and he fancies himself a successor to Peter the Great.

If you want to avoid WWIII, then we must defeat Putin and Russia IN UKRAINE.

DocBarrister

...serious question Doc : do you support military action by US forces to help Ukraine to win back all the territory lost to Russia ? ...since 2014 ?

Do you really think the Ukrainians can do it by themselves with just military aid from the west ?
Not just wishful thinking, but an actual prediction.

I believe the Ukrainians can and will accomplish this with "just" military aid from the West, but I think they need our best. And it won't be easy.

But if you're asking whether, if push truly came to shove, whether the West (NATO) should put forces into action to accomplish this, then yes. But only as a last resort. Putin needs to lose, the aggression needs to be thoroughly defeated, no "win" for this aggression.

I think we need to be patient. And very supportive, so that this doesn't need to happen.