THE 2019 Hopkins Lacrosse Fallout Shelter (44, we want more!)

[HopFan16]

The days of lopsided faceoff numbers in our favor are over. All three of OSU, PSU, and Maryland have excellent faceoff units. We'll be lucky to keep those games near 50%. Going to have to start finding other ways to win. A great way to make up for any loss in faceoff advantage is to not turn the ball over on offense and make more stops on defense. I know, rocket science.

Jays were 37% shooting as a team against a very good goaltender. The attack of Epstein (5/10), Williams (3/6), and Marr (2/4) were all 50%. 15 combined points, 4 turnovers. If they keep shooting like that and taking care of the ball—maybe, just maybe, this team can make some noise. Still a lot of "ifs," and that doesn't solve the glaring issues on defense. There are things to be optimistic about but it just seems like they still can't put a complete game together.

Epstein is 20 points shy of Brian Piccola's record for points as a freshman. Probably not going to happen if we only have three games left. If we make the Big Ten tourney and—god willing—go on a run in May, he might have a chance.

[Big Dog]

Doc, I disagree with you on the 8-6 outcome. If Hopkins wins 2 of the next 3, and then loses in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, I think that team is a lock.

A lock is likely overstating. It more depends on how many upsets win AQ's. And, I have no doubt that the selection committee would love to bring in new teams to the tourney. So if they can make a case for a High Point, they will.

[DocBarrister]

Doc, I disagree with you on the 8-6 outcome. If Hopkins wins 2 of the next 3, and then loses in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, I think that team is a lock.

A lock is likely overstating. It more depends on how many upsets win AQ's. And, I have no doubt that the selection committee would love to bring in new teams to the tourney. So if they can make a case for a High Point, they will.

I agree with Le Grand Dog. No 8-6 team will be a “lock” for the NCAA tournament. Hopkins would be a bubble team needing plenty of help. But win 9 total games ... then I think Hopkins will be a lock (either with an AQ or an at large).

DocBarrister

[Hoponboard]

Darby had a 20% save percentage in the second half (2 saves and 10 goals) which is one of the worst halves I can ever remember for a Hopkins GK. In his defense, the close D allowed numerous layups. Mullins had six assists in the span of seventeen minutes. I thought the defensive approach was very poor. No one guarded Kieran as he stood behind the net and all the Jays’ defenders had their backs turned to him as Rutgers ran their criss cross patterns. Most teams would have left one defender in front of the goal to intercept the passes to cutting teammates.

[Big Dog]

^^Even worse the Save Percentage was zero in the 4th qtr! Defenders/middies gassed?

https://lacrossereference.com/game-win- ... tclaxpower

[laxreference]

^^Even worse the Save Percentage was zero in the 4th qtr! Defenders/middies gassed?

https://lacrossereference.com/game-win- ... tclaxpower

It's true that the save percentage was zero, but Rutgers' overall shooting percentage (including shots not on cage) was 46%. That is barely higher than the 2nd and 3rd quarters (43% and 44%). So I'm not sure I'd put it on the defense as a whole.

[OCanada]

Petro will tell you the R GK is the best in D1. He may or may not be but he is elite.

R had four quick goals off unforced turnovers eg a defense D man throws a lob pass that is intercepted for a quick goal. GK throws a soft pass off target at midfield for a quick goal. There were two others. I think we have a very good GK based on what I saw. I see much more in person than I see on TV.

FOGO was amazing.

Defense communication was not good. Someone needs to step up and take charge.

Epstein is the real deal. He has proven off the season. Sceptics were wrong.

[OCanada]

Doc, you suffer from amnesia. Kind of Trumpian. You claim to be a great fan and mouth all the platitudes..,but

Both are true in my recollection. I wrote about it. Perhaps it’s was the fact you were in your first year but your go to is always to look for whose fault rather than ask the right questions. It happens with people who have your approach.

Both statements are true. You developing “amnesia” is not a surprise. I have no interest in bringing this to the forum any longer.

[Hawkeye]

Doc, I disagree with you on the 8-6 outcome. If Hopkins wins 2 of the next 3, and then loses in the first round of the Big Ten tournament, I think that team is a lock.

A lock is likely overstating. It more depends on how many upsets win AQ's. And, I have no doubt that the selection committee would love to bring in new teams to the tourney. So if they can make a case for a High Point, they will.

It all comes down to two teams: Loyola and Towson. Hopkins needs both of them to roll from here on, for multiple reasons.

Outside of them, there are no teams outside of the 3 strongest leagues that look like they can fall back on an at-large bid. Maybe Denver/Villanova, but that's a stretch. High Point has no case for an at-large at this point.

If both of Loyola and Towson win their leagues, think about this:

The ACC likely will get no more than 4. The Ivy League will get no more than 3 (2 at-larges). That leaves 2 at-larges for the Big Ten. In my scenario, Hopkins is clearly in the top 3 of the conference. All other leagues would be single bid leagues.

[HopFan16]

Towson or Loyola losses in their conference tournaments would certainly be no bueno for us and every other bubble team. If Towson does lose, we'll have to hope it's to Delaware, as maybe that'd give us another top 20 RPI win. Delaware is still 28 in RPI according to Lax Bytes, even with a 9-2 record. Don't know exactly how all the math works, I'll leave that to the experts, but even if Delaware wins out I'm not sure that'd be enough for them to become a "quality win" for us. UNC (17 RPI) and Rutgers (19 RPI) are our only top 20 RPI wins right now, and those may not last.

On the plus side, we have no "bad losses," and even if we lose the next three (let's not, though), none of those will be bad either. And no matter what the SOS is going to be strong, definitely top 10 and very likely top 5. (We're #6 in SOS right now with the hardest remaining schedule in all of D1.) The numbers don't look as dire as they did a few weeks ago, but the bubble is going to be very small this year, and we still lack a definitive big win to hang our hats on. It'd go a long way for our at-large case if we could win one or two of the next three games. Starting with a W on Sunday sounds good to me, especially as that'd probably put us ahead of OSU for both the conference tourney and the at-large discussion. Sunday is still a must win, IMO.

[Hawkeye]

Sunday is still a must win, IMO.

I agree, but only because I don't think Hop can beat both of PSU and Maryland.

If Ohio State is a loss, there's also a possible a 3-way tie for 3rd-5th in conference play brewing. And then we all have to pull out our abacuses to figure out who gets in the Big Ten tournament.

[Big Dog]

It all comes down to two teams: Loyola and Towson. Hopkins needs both of them to roll from here on, for multiple reasons.

.....High Point has no case for an at-large at this point.

All other leagues would be single bid leagues.

I like your thinking (as a Hop fan) but still think its optimistic. (Been using Doc's blue-colored glasses?)

Think about this: HP was ranked above Hop last week, and both won. (yes, Hop beat a stronger team.) HP has two wins over top 10 teams. If they run the table and lose in the Championship, they'd have 14 wins. Since I believe that the NCAA is big on expanding beyond the NE: two bid league. Goodbye bubble #1.

Ditto Big East: if Denver or 'Nova run the table but loses in their championship game, they have 11 or 12 wins, respectively. Denver has 2 quality wins and 'Nova has 1. Possible another two bid league. Goodbye bubble #2, particularly if Denver....

[Hawkeye]

I like your thinking (as a Hop fan) but still think its optimistic. (Been using Doc's blue-colored glasses?)

Think about this: HP was ranked above Hop last week, and both won. (yes, Hop beat a stronger team.) HP has two wins over top 10 teams. If they run the table and lose in the Championship, they'd have 14 wins. Since I believe that the NCAA is big on expanding beyond the NE: two bid league. Goodbye bubble #1.

I really don't think High Point has the resume for an at-large. Their RPI is already underwater and will not get any higher than it is right now. They have two very bad losses... I just don't see it. I think they're AQ or bust.

I'm much more worried about Villanova/Denver than I am High Point.

Also on the topic of AQ or bust, if Cornell loses to Syracuse on Tuesday night, they might join that club.

[HopFan16]

High Point is cooked. If Bucknell didn't get in last year with its big wins, HP isn't getting in this year. No team is getting in with a 20+ RPI and a 40+ SOS. "Expanding" the field to nontraditional teams is not among the committee's selection criteria. They tend to adhere pretty strictly to the numbers. And like Hawkeye said, they did lose to St. John's and Jacksonville, both more recently than those two ACC wins. Luckily for them, they still have a great chance to get in by winning the SoCon.

I like our spot better than Denver's, as of this moment, at least. Things can change. But we've got a slight edge in both RPI and SOS and have more "bites at the apple" opportunities in the weeks ahead while they really only have a potential rematch with Villanova in the Big East tourney to look to, and if they win that they'll probably have won the conference anyways. They did beat Towson, but they also lost to Princeton. None of their other wins are particularly impressive. We have mutual wins over UNC.

Agree that Villanova is concerning—they have comparable numbers, but with better wins than anything we have, over Yale and Denver. We have a chance to change that over the next few weeks, of course, while Nova's remaining schedule is much weaker. So by season's end we may have the numbers edge. They also have a bad loss to Drexel. It's close.

The nightmare scenario is we lose our next three, finish at 6-7 overall and 2-3 in the conference, miss out on the B1G tourney due to a tiebreaker (still have no idea how they work), and are then ineligible for the NCAAs for being below .500. I'm sure this place will be real fun if that happens.

Can avoid a lot of headaches by beating Ohio State next weekend. That virtually ensures a berth in the conference tournament and an overall record no worse than .500.

[DocBarrister]

Sunday is still a must win, IMO.

I agree, but only because I don't think Hop can beat both of PSU and Maryland.

If Ohio State is a loss, there's also a possible a 3-way tie for 3rd-5th in conference play brewing. And then we all have to pull out our abacuses to figure out who gets in the Big Ten tournament.

As a practical (not mathematical) matter, yes, Blue Jays must beat Ohio State. If they do that, then Hopkins basically has three games left to win one game for NCAA tournament bubble status. I don’t think the third place B1G team is guaranteed a tournament spot this year.

Now, beat Ohio State and win any two additional B1G games after that and the Blue Jays will almost certainly be at least the second place team in the B1G (or, obviously the AQ, if those two wins are in the B1G tournament) and that’s the Golden Ticket to the NCAA tournament.

But it all starts with beating Ohio State next week at home.

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

Rutgers has a kid who could play 7 years. If he's not getting a law/med/phd degree, time to move on man.

there are many other useful degrees out there besides the aforementioned for someone's own personal scenario. and i don't know what his plans are for future degrees, nor what time he had to take off for surgeries, etc. maybe you do.
he'll also play 4 years in games, not 7, if he stays healthy going forward.
what i do know is that like the rest of us, you get decades to work in the work force if you're lucky to last that long. and 4 years of eligibility to play a sport in college, if you're lucky enough to be that good.

- Refs blew one of the worst offsides calls I've ever seen. Luckily it didn't matter in the end.

not really that egregious when hopkins only has the ball for 2 seconds and turns it over by not backing up the shot. imo.

[OCanada]

As to the call. It might have been correct. One of the people in the section I sat in who is also a ref said he thought they didn’t have enough players on the field so the call was correct if that’s true. I didn’t look ok at the time. I don’t know if film would show if that is true

[HopFan16]

Rutgers probably should have considered playing with 7 guys for the whole game if the refs weren't going to call it. Might have helped stop Epstein.

[wgdsr]

right. by the time folks, or at least the announcers, were calling for offsides when rutgers had the ball back, it seemed related to the fact that they only had 3 back.

with the camera panning, they actually had 8 guys on the field by then and weren't offsides.

your screenshot is when they were, 2 guys were trailing the play from rutgers, and hopkins had the ball for all of 2 seconds in the O end, and gave up possession on the shot.

it's probable at least the coaches caught the knights doubling back, but by then it was too late. with any 2 second possession well ahead of the offside, that'd happen quite a bit and get missed.

[10stone5]

Rutgers has a kid who could play 7 years. If he's not getting a law/med/phd degree, time to move on man.

there are many other useful degrees out there besides the aforementioned for someone's own personal scenario. and i don't know what his plans are for future degrees, nor what time he had to take off for surgeries, etc. maybe you do.
he'll also play 4 years in games, not 7, if he stays healthy going forward.

Charalambides got two red shirts, if that is the reference.
Franckowiak, this is also his 4th year, did a two year mission.
Both are still sophomores I believe.