All Things Russia & Ukraine

[old salt]

Putin
Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR because that is the ONLY WAY THIS WAR CAN END.

Any concession of territory in exchange for “peace” only delays a final push by Putin to take all of Ukraine.

You keep pushing for fantasy resolutions to this war while ignoring the nightmarish truth …

… Putin won’t be stopped until he is forced to stop.

This is going to be a long and brutal war, and that is completely Putin’s fault.

DocBarrister

Hey Doc, who won the Korean War ?

[Typical Lax Dad]

Putin
Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR because that is the ONLY WAY THIS WAR CAN END.

Any concession of territory in exchange for “peace” only delays a final push by Putin to take all of Ukraine.

You keep pushing for fantasy resolutions to this war while ignoring the nightmarish truth …

… Putin won’t be stopped until he is forced to stop.

This is going to be a long and brutal war, and that is completely Putin’s fault.

DocBarrister

Hey Doc, who won the Korean War ?

Remember Grenada!!

[jhu72]

Very interesting turn of events.

[MDlaxfan76]

Why? What would the benefit to Putin be of a war that continues to bleed and bleed Russia? An endless war?

How are his polling numbers in Russia? High, right? Well...there you go.

He doesn't care that Russia is bleeding. If he did? He would never have, for example, opened military bases in Syria....when his GDP has been pretty much flat since he took office. He can't afford those bases. And he can't afford this war his is fighting.

And yet.....here we are.

Except that his ambition is empire, not an endless war, bleeding the economy, frustrating the Russian people...his polling is and will remain high...until and if they are defeated or exhausted by the lack of progress...right now there's a credible claim that they're making progress, the West is weak and feckless, and that they will ultimately prevail. the fastest end to this is to defeat them thoroughly, push them out of Ukraine.

I assume you mean he's waiting for winter and then will put the screws to the Europeans under the hope that their resolve and support for Ukraine will buckle? Yup, that could be...and, if we don't back stop Ukraine, Putin can then roll over Ukraine, and then onward to each new target of his ambitions.

He's already proven to the world that his army is a sh*tshow. And you think he'll go after NATO countries? Because it's either that, or head towards China's sphere of influence...and he won't do that.

To your question about whether Putin would move beyond Ukraine, if the West abandons them, yes.
It doesn't matter to him if Russians die, his ambitions are to restore the Empire, and he believes the West is weak and feckless...unless it is fully proven to his military that they would be obliterated, they're gonna follow his orders.

mmm, that sounds very, very unlikely to work for him...the Ukrainian people, even Russian speaking, have greatly hardened in their negative views towards Putin

Some. Not all. And money talks....and Ukraine is clearly a Kleptocracy. Has a few months of war changed that? Maybe.

I don't think we should expect a radical change in whether they're a kleptocracy or not (especially in the East), they NOW hate the Russians. They're gonna fight and they're not going to put up with any leader who is a puppet to Putin.

Like what? And how does that matter...serious question, I just don't see what you're getting at...

Zelensky could have personal motives (stay in power, for example) that trump the Ukrainian people's interest.

What would those secret motives be? And could he maintain his position if he bends the knee to Putin? I don't think so, the Ukrainian people are very resolved.

hmmm, any notion as to which, if any, of these has a probability above 10% or so...much less any above 50%?

Policy choices need to be made for the most likely pathways, with contingency planning for others emerging.

The nice thing for Biden is: none of the above matters. Nor does any other speculation.

He has one choice: Give Ukraine enough arms and training to force a stalemate. That's it. That's his "choice".

Any other move would likely cause escalation, and who the F knows what Putin will do if he thinks he's losing this war.

Or Ukraine pushes Russia out...that's not an "escalation". It's western weapons and Ukrainian fighters (and Chechens etc) defeating a less well equipped, lower morale Russian military.

[old salt]

Why? What would the benefit to Putin be of a war that continues to bleed and bleed Russia? An endless war?

How are his polling numbers in Russia? High, right? Well...there you go.

He doesn't care that Russia is bleeding. If he did? He would never have, for example, opened military bases in Syria....when his GDP has been pretty much flat since he took office. He can't afford those bases. And he can't afford this war his is fighting.

And yet.....here we are.

Except that his ambition is empire, not an endless war, bleeding the economy, frustrating the Russian people...his polling is and will remain high...until and if they are defeated or exhausted by the lack of progress...right now there's a credible claim that they're making progress, the West is weak and feckless, and that they will ultimately prevail. the fastest end to this is to defeat them thoroughly, push them out of Ukraine.

I assume you mean he's waiting for winter and then will put the screws to the Europeans under the hope that their resolve and support for Ukraine will buckle? Yup, that could be...and, if we don't back stop Ukraine, Putin can then roll over Ukraine, and then onward to each new target of his ambitions.

Putin can't roll over any more of the former Russian Empire with the army he has. They have demonstrated that they cannot conduct maneuver warfare & employ combined arms against a competent, even under-equipped, opposing force.
He's already proven to the world that his army is a sh*tshow. And you think he'll go after NATO countries? Because it's either that, or head towards China's sphere of influence...and he won't do that.

To your question about whether Putin would move beyond Ukraine, if the West abandons them, yes.
To where ? He won't invade NATO. Belarus is already under his thumb via their Union State partnership.
The west won't abandon Ukraine. There will be sufficient support to enable Ukraine to defend against complete defeat & loss of all territory. That does not mean there will be sufficient support to enable the retaking of all territory already lost.
It doesn't matter to him if Russians die, his ambitions are to restore the Empire, and he believes the West is weak and feckless...unless it is fully proven to his military that they would be obliterated, they're gonna follow his orders.

mmm, that sounds very, very unlikely to work for him...the Ukrainian people, even Russian speaking, have greatly hardened in their negative views towards Putin

Some. Not all. And money talks....and Ukraine is clearly a Kleptocracy. Has a few months of war changed that? Maybe.

I don't think we should expect a radical change in whether they're a kleptocracy or not Why not ? Do you think the aid will continue if they lapse back into their corruption ? They need to be squeaky clean. (especially in the East), they NOW hate the Russians. They're gonna fight and they're not going to put up with any leader who is a puppet to Putin.

Like what? And how does that matter...serious question, I just don't see what you're getting at...

Zelensky could have personal motives (stay in power, for example) that trump the Ukrainian people's interest.

What would those secret motives be? And could he maintain his position if he bends the knee to Putin? I don't think so, the Ukrainian people are very resolved.

hmmm, any notion as to which, if any, of these has a probability above 10% or so...much less any above 50%?

Policy choices need to be made for the most likely pathways, with contingency planning for others emerging.

The nice thing for Biden is: none of the above matters. Nor does any other speculation.

He has one choice: Give Ukraine enough arms and training to force a stalemate. That's it. That's his "choice".

Any other move would likely cause escalation, and who the F knows what Putin will do if he thinks he's losing this war.

Or Ukraine pushes Russia out...that's not an "escalation". It's western weapons and Ukrainian fighters (and Chechens etc) defeating a less well equipped, lower morale Russian military.The Chechens are fighting for Russia. Stopping Russian progress is entirely different than driving them from territory already taken.

[a fan]

Except that his ambition is empire, not an endless war, bleeding the economy, frustrating the Russian people...his polling is and will remain high...until and if they are defeated or exhausted by the lack of progress...right now there's a credible claim that they're making progress, the West is weak and feckless, and that they will ultimately prevail. the fastest end to this is to defeat them thoroughly, push them out of Ukraine.

Again, you don't know what his ambition is. And he controls the Russia media.....he can say anything----anything----he wants, and his people will believe it. He doesn't need to "show progress" , for example.

To your question about whether Putin would move beyond Ukraine, if the West abandons them, yes.
It doesn't matter to him if Russians die, his ambitions are to restore the Empire, and he believes the West is weak and feckless

Disagree. He now knows that the US military, for all its flaws, is 1000% better at warfare than his troops are.

And you can bet that China knows that their troops have also never seen combat, and are likely as sh*tty as the Russian troops when the bullets start flying.

I don't think we should expect a radical change in whether they're a kleptocracy or not (especially in the East), they NOW hate the Russians. They're gonna fight and they're not going to put up with any leader who is a puppet to Putin.

I don't believe for a second that there aren't any Putin fans in Ukraine.

]What would those secret motives be? And could he maintain his position if he bends the knee to Putin? I don't think so, the Ukrainian people are very resolved.

Simple: that Zelensky has an eye toward his own interests over the people he's leading. Happens all the time, in most countries.

Or Ukraine pushes Russia out...that's not an "escalation".

Boy, do I disagree. If Ukraine forces the Russians to retreat back to Russia? That's a major escalation.

[MDlaxfan76]

Many good points, some I disagree with.

Why? What would the benefit to Putin be of a war that continues to bleed and bleed Russia? An endless war?

How are his polling numbers in Russia? High, right? Well...there you go.

He doesn't care that Russia is bleeding. If he did? He would never have, for example, opened military bases in Syria....when his GDP has been pretty much flat since he took office. He can't afford those bases. And he can't afford this war his is fighting.

And yet.....here we are.

Except that his ambition is empire, not an endless war, bleeding the economy, frustrating the Russian people...his polling is and will remain high...until and if they are defeated or exhausted by the lack of progress...right now there's a credible claim that they're making progress, the West is weak and feckless, and that they will ultimately prevail. the fastest end to this is to defeat them thoroughly, push them out of Ukraine.

I assume you mean he's waiting for winter and then will put the screws to the Europeans under the hope that their resolve and support for Ukraine will buckle? Yup, that could be...and, if we don't back stop Ukraine, Putin can then roll over Ukraine, and then onward to each new target of his ambitions.

Putin can't roll over any more of the former Russian Empire with the army he has. They have demonstrated that they cannot conduct maneuver warfare & employ combined arms against a competent, even under-equipped, opposing force.

That's true, but that reality is not stopping Putin from the ongoing push they are doing now, and it is very clear that he doesn't believe the West/NATO will actually hang together. And that he can only be the successful leader if he indeed restores the Empire...again, he thinks the west is weak and feckless...of course, this may take numerous years to play out, but an America divided, even at war with itself will provide the opportunity.

He's already proven to the world that his army is a sh*tshow. And you think he'll go after NATO countries? Because it's either that, or head towards China's sphere of influence...and he won't do that.

To your question about whether Putin would move beyond Ukraine, if the West abandons them, yes.
To where ? He won't invade NATO. Belarus is already under his thumb via their Union State partnership.
I don't agree, see above.
The west won't abandon Ukraine. There will be sufficient support to enable Ukraine to defend against complete defeat & loss of all territory. That does not mean there will be sufficient support to enable the retaking of all territory already lost.
Well, that's not at all guaranteed, especially under the scenario you described of winter coming in Europe. And yup, the defeatist approach is to not give Ukraine enough to push Russia out, then push Ukraine to accept a cease fire, then Putin moves again full bore...

It doesn't matter to him if Russians die, his ambitions are to restore the Empire, and he believes the West is weak and feckless...unless it is fully proven to his military that they would be obliterated, they're gonna follow his orders.

mmm, that sounds very, very unlikely to work for him...the Ukrainian people, even Russian speaking, have greatly hardened in their negative views towards Putin

Some. Not all. And money talks....and Ukraine is clearly a Kleptocracy. Has a few months of war changed that? Maybe.

I don't think we should expect a radical change in whether they're a kleptocracy or not Why not ? Do you think the aid will continue if they lapse back into their corruption ? They need to be squeaky clean. (especially in the East), they NOW hate the Russians. They're gonna fight and they're not going to put up with any leader who is a puppet to Putin.

Like what? And how does that matter...serious question, I just don't see what you're getting at...

Zelensky could have personal motives (stay in power, for example) that trump the Ukrainian people's interest.

What would those secret motives be? And could he maintain his position if he bends the knee to Putin? I don't think so, the Ukrainian people are very resolved.

hmmm, any notion as to which, if any, of these has a probability above 10% or so...much less any above 50%?

Policy choices need to be made for the most likely pathways, with contingency planning for others emerging.

The nice thing for Biden is: none of the above matters. Nor does any other speculation.

He has one choice: Give Ukraine enough arms and training to force a stalemate. That's it. That's his "choice".

Any other move would likely cause escalation, and who the F knows what Putin will do if he thinks he's losing this war.

Or Ukraine pushes Russia out...that's not an "escalation". It's western weapons and Ukrainian fighters (and Chechens etc) defeating a less well equipped, lower morale Russian military.The Chechens are fighting for Russia. Stopping Russian progress is entirely different than driving them from territory already taken.
Actually, there are many thousands of Chechens fighting against Russia for Ukraine. Volunteers.https://www.npr.org/2022/07/15/11117712 ... nst-russia

[MDlaxfan76]

Except that his ambition is empire, not an endless war, bleeding the economy, frustrating the Russian people...his polling is and will remain high...until and if they are defeated or exhausted by the lack of progress...right now there's a credible claim that they're making progress, the West is weak and feckless, and that they will ultimately prevail. the fastest end to this is to defeat them thoroughly, push them out of Ukraine.

Again, you don't know what his ambition is. And he controls the Russia media.....he can say anything----anything----he wants, and his people will believe it. He doesn't need to "show progress" , for example.

I'm not a mindreader, yes, but I can read what he says in his speeches, both the large ones and to smaller audiences, and they reveal qite clearly what his ambitions are, and what his view of the world is, which countries have a sovereign right to exist and which do not. Sorry Baltics, sorry Poland...

To your question about whether Putin would move beyond Ukraine, if the West abandons them, yes.
It doesn't matter to him if Russians die, his ambitions are to restore the Empire, and he believes the West is weak and feckless

Disagree. He now knows that the US military, for all its flaws, is 1000% better at warfare than his troops are.

You are assuming a rationality, a caring about his military forces that I think has been proven to be naive.

And you can bet that China knows that their troops have also never seen combat, and are likely as sh*tty as the Russian troops when the bullets start flying.

Nope, I doubt they think that's the case. The hubris of authoritarians is very repeated throughout history...and their willingness to expend the blood of millions.

I don't think we should expect a radical change in whether they're a kleptocracy or not (especially in the East), they NOW hate the Russians. They're gonna fight and they're not going to put up with any leader who is a puppet to Putin.

I don't believe for a second that there aren't any Putin fans in Ukraine.

Of course there are, and it used to be a sizable minority, now it's a tiny minority.

]What would those secret motives be? And could he maintain his position if he bends the knee to Putin? I don't think so, the Ukrainian people are very resolved.

Simple: that Zelensky has an eye toward his own interests over the people he's leading. Happens all the time, in most countries.

His survival depends upon his people supporting him; see above, they won't if he bends the kneee...porshenko is pointed to take over, or any number of others.

Or Ukraine pushes Russia out...that's not an "escalation".

Boy, do I disagree. If Ukraine forces the Russians to retreat back to Russia? That's a major escalation.
In Putin's deranged world perhaps losing is an "escalation", but why is it so in your world? We're not talking about missiles dropping on Moscow, we're talking about the destruction of supply lines immediately around and in Ukraine and the defeat on the battlefield...just like the defeat of the blitzkrieg on Kiev...pushed back and away. My view is that's when the military takes out Putin, when it's obvious to them that they are going to lose badly if they keep trying to hold onto territory in Ukraine.

[a fan]

In Putin's deranged world perhaps losing is an "escalation", but why is it so in your world? We're not talking about missiles dropping on Moscow

If I'm a Ukrainian and have seen friends and family blown up by Putin? And you keep arming me? And Putin continues his stubbornness? I'd absolutely start lobbing everything I have into Russian Cities.

IMHO, it's a mistake to think that the odds are above are low. As you say, there's millions of Ukrainians that hate Russia now. And they're armed.

And again.....Biden has to take all of this into account when arming them. He can't go too far, imho....too many of those unintended consequences are lying in wait.

......we're talking about the destruction of supply lines immediately around and in Ukraine and the defeat on the battlefield...just like the defeat of the blitzkrieg on Kiev...pushed back and away. My view is that's when the military takes out Putin, when it's obvious to them that they are going to lose badly if they keep trying to hold onto territory in Ukraine.

Again, this is such a tough ask. I hope the stupid war ends asap. I just don't see how.

[old salt]

...his ambitions are, and what his view of the world is, which countries have a sovereign right to exist and which do not. Sorry Baltics, sorry Poland...

That is not a rational fear. Poland & the Baltics are much better defended than Ukraine was, are less vulnerable & NATO is already in position to defend them.

[MDlaxfan76]

...his ambitions are, and what his view of the world is, which countries have a sovereign right to exist and which do not. Sorry Baltics, sorry Poland...

That is not a rational fear. Poland & the Baltics are much better defended than Ukraine was, are less vulnerable & NATO is already in position to defend them.

yes, but that's not going to stop Putin from the attempt. Especially if the West/NATO crumbles under the economic strains.

Better to end his chances sooner than that.

[Seacoaster(1)]

Russia is simply a terrorist nation:

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexKokcharo ... nq1P0qAAAA

[MDlaxfan76]

Interesting set of moves by Zelensky apparently, suspending, or stronger, several key top people, head of intelligence, top prosecutors...Russian collaborators in their departments "treason"...etc...

Gotta go to dinner, but just flagging this...

[old salt]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russian-st ... 1658059249

...the ouster of the security chief, Ivan Bakanov, had been forecast for some time. The Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, has for years faced allegations that its ranks are infiltrated by Russian assets, claims bolstered by two recent high-profile arrests. The SBU is Ukraine’s main security and intelligence agency. It is separate from the GUR military-intelligence agency that plays the primary role in the war with Russia.

Posting on social media Sunday night, Mr. Zelensky said that 651 treason cases had been registered concerning workers in Ukrainian law-enforcement and the prosecutor’s office. He said that more than 60 employees of the SBU and prosecutor’s office were working for Russia in occupied areas of Ukraine.

Mr. Bakanov and Mr. Zelensky were childhood friends from their upbringing in the city of Kryvyi Rih and later established the production company behind the TV show, Servant of the People,” that brought Mr. Zelensky wide domestic popularity and smoothed his entry into politics. Mr. Bakanov later served as the head of Mr. Zelensky’s political party before taking over as SBU chief in August 2019.

In 2020, Mr. Zelensky, referring to Mr. Bakanov, said “there has never been such an honest head of the Security Service of Ukraine.”

On Sunday, Mr. Zelensky removed Mr. Bakanov under a military disciplinary code that cites “negligence in performing duties that caused loss of life or other grave consequences.”

Russia’s full-scale February invasion of Ukraine brought into sharp relief the activities of some high-ranking SBU officials and doubts about their allegiance.

On Saturday, Ukrainian authorities arrested Oleg Kulinich, the former head of the SBU’s Crimea department on suspicion of collaborating with the Russian security services.

In April, Mr. Zelensky fired SBU brigadier general Andriy Naumov, who had been in charge of internal security at the agency. Mr. Naumov was believed to have fled the country shortly before the war began. Last month, Serbian border guards detained Mr. Naumov as he attempted to cross into North Macedonia with a significant amount of cash and jewels.

In April, Mr. Zelensky removed the SBU chief in Kherson for failure to live up to his oath of allegiance and stripped him of general’s rank. At the time, Mr. Zelensky vowed that he would deal with a significant number of traitors. “They will all be punished,” he said. In May, Mr. Zelensky also removed the head of the SBU for the Kharkiv region.

[DocBarrister]

...his ambitions are, and what his view of the world is, which countries have a sovereign right to exist and which do not. Sorry Baltics, sorry Poland...

That is not a rational fear. Poland & the Baltics are much better defended than Ukraine was, are less vulnerable & NATO is already in position to defend them.

You seem to be under the delusion that Putin is a rational actor.

He envisions himself to be a latter day Peter the Great. That is some truly disturbing megalomaniacal sh*t.

There are usually only two ways in which wars instigated by such an irrational tyrant come to an end: (1) military defeat; and/or (2) death of the tyrant.

The two scenarios are not mutually exclusive (see, e.g., Adolf Hitler).

Putin’s despicable and murderous war against Ukraine is not going to end well.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Completely different situations.

Sure it is, Doc. Sure it is.

You have NO CLUE what Putin wants. Or Zelensky, for that matter. Stop pretending you do.

That’s the difference between you and me … I don’t rely only on my own assessments when posting on this forum. I’m an informed reader and forum member.

Here is the current U.S. intelligence assessment of “what Putin wants,” and Zelensky, too.

WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin still wants to seize most of Ukraine, but his forces are so degraded by combat that they likely can only achieve incremental gains in the near term, the top U.S. intelligence officer said Wednesday.

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, outlining the current U.S. intelligence assessment of the more than four-month war, said that the consensus of U.S. spy agencies is that it will grind on "for an extended period of time."

… Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy this week told U.S. President Joe Biden and other G7 leaders that he wants the war over by the end of the year.

But Haines' comments suggested that the billions of dollars in modern arms being supplied by the United States and other countries to Zelinskiy's forces may not give them the ability to turn the tide against Russia any time soon.

… She said that Putin remains intent on overruning most of Ukraine even though Ukrainian forces beat back Russia's attempt to capture the capital Kyiv in February, forcing Moscow to reduce its target to seizing the entire eastern Donbas region.

"We think he has effectively the same political goals that we had previously, which is to say that he wants to take most of Ukraine," Haines said.

Russian forces, however, have been so degraded by more than four months of combat that it is unlikely they can achieve Putin's goal any time soon, Haines said in her first public assessment of the war since May.

… "We perceive a disconnect between Putin's near-term military objectives in this area and his military's capacity, a kind of mismatch between his ambitions and what the military is able to accomplish," she said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 022-06-29/

As I said … Putin is not likely going to end this war until he is forced to end this war. He still pretty much wants all of Ukraine. That hasn’t changed. That’s not just my assessment, that’s the current assessment of U.S. intelligence.

It’s stupid to think the choice in ending this war belongs to Ukraine, the United States, or our allies. It never has.

Putin has been engaging in war against Ukraine for a decade now … he won’t stop until he either gets all of Ukraine or until he LOSES THIS WAR—that is, until he is forced to stop.

Anyone who doesn’t understand that doesn’t understand this war.

President Zelensky wants to end this war by the end of this year. The United States and the allies probably want it to end sooner. But those who understand Putin’s intentions know that is unlikely.

This is going to be a long and brutal war in all likelihood, possibly lasting years more until Russia just can’t continue.

For this war to end, Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

DocBarrister

I'm not sure that this is an informed assessment, rather what you want and think is going to happen. a fan does not strike me as an uniformed reader. How you make that derisory claim is rather bewildering. Do you say these things because you think this forum is your own personal echo chamber? Doesn't seem like your intention is further the discussion, but rather advance your rather dogmatic views on others. It seems very silly. Even I can see that after just a short time using the site. Why do you do this??

2000,
Do you have an opinion on this topic or are you just going to post insults about other posters?

Doc just showed precisely what information ("informed") he was saying should be considered, "US intelligence assessment" as reported by Reuters.

He then makes clear (at least to any friendly reader) his own logic about what this means, in a discussion with another poster (a fan) with whom he disagrees on a particular aspect. They both feel strongly and get a bit testy with one another, but not over the top ranting and insulting.

So, what do you think?

My own view is that Doc's conclusions are, unfortunately, more likely a fair read of the situation than not. Lots of reasons why I come to that view, which I've explained numerous times over these past months, but I'm open to new information, new logic that I hadn't previously considered.

I'd love to see an early end of this war, but I don't think that is Putin's intent...as, IMO, he's made abundantly clear both through his actions and his words. I'm not going to call it "stupid" but I would call it "naive and foolish" to expect otherwise from him.

Thus, I don't see a stable end until Putin is deposed, and I don't expect that to happen until the Russian military is so thoroughly defeated and demoralized, that Putin can no longer hold onto power.

Love to be wrong.

Thank you, MD.

I think we can all agree that this war should never have happened, and all of us wish it had stopped months ago.

It is not the United States, NATO, EU, other allies, or Ukraine that are unnecessarily prolonging this war. It is Putin.

Unfortunately, this war is likely to continue for a very long time. Hope it doesn’t.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.

Ok....here's a few:

-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.

-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.

-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine

-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.

-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see


I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.

As the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.

There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.

Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.

Everything is going according to plan.

That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.

That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.

But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.

… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.

There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.

For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html

Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.

President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.

We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.

Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.

The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.

DocBarrister

[a fan]

Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.

Ok....here's a few:

-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.

-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.

-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine

-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.

-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see


I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.

As the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.

There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.

Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.

Everything is going according to plan.

That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.

That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.

But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.

… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.

There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.

For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html

Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.

President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.

We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.

Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.

The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.

DocBarrister

More speculation masquerading as fact. We have no clue what Putin is thinking, Doc.

[DocBarrister]

Fair skepticism, but you're not really engaging in the various probabilities by simply dismissing this "we have no idea" what anyone will do, much less what Putin will do.

Ok....here's a few:

-It wouldn't surprise me at all if what we're seeing now is the end goal for Putin.....a war that doesn't end.

-Putin could be waiting out the winter, and then put the screws to the geniuses who depend on him for energy.

-It could be he's slowly installing/locating "his guys" with Ukraine to establish a puppet Ukraine

-It could be that Putin is waiting to wipe out Ukraine's current leadership structure.

-Zelensky could have personal motives that we don't see


I really have no idea. The one thing I think is unlikely, is that this is as cut and dry and Doc and others think it is.

As the article above reports, it is the current assessment of U.S. intelligence that this is likely going to be a very prolonged war.

There is always the possibility of some unforeseen event ending this war sooner than later. But hoping for such unforeseen events amounts to wishful thinking.

Putin is in this war for the long haul. That is not my opinion alone … it is the growing consensus of not only U.S. intelligence, but other experts as well. The reasons behind this assessment are described well in this NY Times article.

Everything is going according to plan.

That’s the line from President Vladimir Putin. The war in Ukraine, in its fifth month and with no end in sight, may be grueling. But senior Kremlin officials keep repeating that Russia, gaining the upper hand in Ukraine’s east, will achieve all its goals.

That might seem hard to believe. After all, Russia has been forced to retreat from Kyiv, experienced several military reversals, faced sanctions on an unprecedented scale and been subjected to a chorus of international condemnation. To call such a litany of difficulties and outright failures a success may be to court the charge of propaganda, hypocrisy or even self-delusion.

But it’s what the Kremlin seems to believe. Over two decades I have closely followed Mr. Putin’s words, behavior and decisions, forming a comprehensive picture of the president’s calculations. Based on his public rhetoric and policy moves and informal discussions with insiders, I have been able to work out — as far as is possible — the contours of the Kremlin’s current thinking. What is very clear is that in late May, the Kremlin came to the firm conclusion that it is winning this conflict in the long run. And Mr. Putin, in contrast to the early chaotic months, now has a clear plan.

… Mr. Putin’s wager appears to be that the fundamental political shifts in Western countries will in time bring about a transformed, friendly West. Russia will then be able to return to all the security demands it set out in its December ultimatum to the United States and NATO. This may seem wishful to the point of impossible. But that doesn’t stop it from being what Mr. Putin expects to happen.

There is some good news. The very fact that the plan seems realistic to him should, in the short term, prevent any nuclear escalation. But the bad news is that sooner or later, Mr. Putin will face reality. It is in that moment, when his plans are stymied and his disappointment high, that he is likely to be most dangerous.

For the West avoid a catastrophic clash, it needs to truly understand what it’s really dealing with when it comes to Mr. Putin.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/18/opin ... nning.html

Putin’s war against Ukraine is probably the single most dangerous conflict since WWII.

President Biden is dealing with a counterpart in Moscow who is almost certainly to some degree delusional and irrational.

We must not appease … indeed, cannot appease … a tyrant like Putin.

Putin and Russia MUST LOSE THIS WAR.

President Biden is walking a tightrope, and falling off could easily mean WWIII.

The allies will need to be patient and continue supporting Ukraine.

DocBarrister

More speculation masquerading as fact. We have no clue what Putin is thinking, Doc.

You are simply wrong about that.

U.S. intelligence correctly predicted that Putin would invade. The Ukrainians didn’t think he would. More than a few European governments were skeptical.

The U.S. intelligence services haven’t gotten everything right (they certainly overestimated Russia’s military capability).

Having said that, it seems U.S. intelligence has more insight into the man in the Kremlin than they are willing to acknowledge publicly.

LANGLEY, Va., July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday thanked staff at the headquarters of the Central Intelligence Agency for warning the world about Russian President Vladimir Putin's plans to invade Ukraine, and hailed what he called the "quiet bravery" of America's spies.

… Intelligence gathered by the CIA had exposed Putin's plans and allowed Washington to warn other countries about the war, he said.

"It was thanks to the incredible work of our intelligence professionals that we were able to forewarn the world what Vladimir Putin was planning in Ukraine," he said. "Exposing Putin's playbook punched a gigantic hole in the pretense, and discredited his lies about what we were doing in Ukraine."

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/cia-he ... 022-07-08/

The world at large may not know for at least 50 years what resources and assets the United States has inside the Kremlin, but whatever they are, they have proven to be fairly reliable.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

...his ambitions are, and what his view of the world is, which countries have a sovereign right to exist and which do not. Sorry Baltics, sorry Poland...

That is not a rational fear. Poland & the Baltics are much better defended than Ukraine was, are less vulnerable & NATO is already in position to defend them.

You seem to be under the delusion that Putin is a rational actor.

He envisions himself to be a latter day Peter the Great. That is some truly disturbing megalomaniacal sh*t.

There are usually only two ways in which wars instigated by such an irrational tyrant come to an end: (1) military defeat; and/or (2) death of the tyrant.

The two scenarios are not mutually exclusive (see, e.g., Adolf Hitler).

Putin’s despicable and murderous war against Ukraine is not going to end well.

DocBarrister

No matter Putin's state of mind. That is not going to make his army any more capable.
By their performance in Ukraine, they have demonstrated that they are not the threat we anticipated.
You posted this quote:
Russian forces, however, have been so degraded by more than four months of combat that it is unlikely they can achieve Putin's goal any time soon, Haines said in her first public assessment of the war since May.

… "We perceive a disconnect between Putin's near-term military objectives in this area and his military's capacity, a kind of mismatch between his ambitions and what the military is able to accomplish," she said.

Putin is no Peter the Great &, unlike Peter the Great, he has not built a military which can fulfill his ambitions.
It's not 1695 or 1939.

https://learnodo-newtonic.com/peter-the ... plishments

PETER THE GREAT INITIATED RUSSIA’S ASCENDANCY AS A MARITIME POWER
Peter I considered that it was necessary for Russia to be a naval power in order to strengthen its position. However, Russia had no access to the Black Sea, the Caspian, or the Baltic; which were controlled by the Ottoman Empire, Safavid Empire and Sweden respectively. Peter’s successful 1695–96 Azov campaigns against the Ottoman Empire allowed him to gain access to the Azov Sea and found Taganrog, the first military base of the Russian Navy. Peter’s greatest success came at the Great Northern War against the Swedish Empire which lasted from 1700 to 1721. His victories in the war allowed Russia to gain access to the eastern shores of the Baltic. Saint Petersburg was founded in 1703 and made capital in 1712 to cement Russia’s access to the Baltic Sea.

HE MODERNIZED THE RUSSIAN ARMY AND BUILT A STRONG RUSSIAN NAVY
Before Peter the Great, Russia’s army relied on militia of the nobility and streltsy, the elite Russian military corps. Streltsy were involved in several rebellions against Peter due to which he disbanded the group and incorporated its members into the regular army. Peter reorganized the Russian army according to western standards. While he selected his officers from the nobility, he also enlisted peasants and townspeople into the other ranks. Officers were required to make their men proficient in combat. Weaponry was designed according to latest standards by Russian specialists. Peter also laid great emphasis on navy; 52 battleships and hundreds of galleys and other craft were built during his reign leading to the creation of a strong Russian Baltic fleet.

PETER I EXPANDED THE RUSSIAN EMPIRE AND MADE RUSSIA A LEADING EUROPEAN POWER
Peter’s Azov campaigns against the Ottoman Empire led to the successful capture of the fortress of Azov in July 1696. He then helped form a grand alliance comprising of Russia, Saxony, and Denmark–Norway against the Swedish Empire leading to the Great Northern War which lasted for 21 years from 1700 to 1721. The successful Northern War made Russia a dominant power in Europe. Peter’s 1722–23 Persian campaign ended with Persia ceding the western and southern shores of the Caspian to Russia in return for military aid. Thus, through skillful statesmanship, generalship and diplomacy, Peter expanded the territory of Russia making it into a larger empire and a major European power. By the time of his death, the Russian Empire stretched from Archangel on the White Sea to Mazanderan on the Caspian and from the Baltic Sea to the Pacific Ocean.