NCAA reorg imminent

[1766]

Like another piece stated-conferences and colleges won’t do anything until a lawyer tells them they can.

Hop doesn’t have any permanent residence in the Big Ten. If it’s inconvenient even from a paperwork perspective for the conference they’ll make a move.

I don’t see lacrosse lining up or conferences mattering outside the two big sports soon. Could see dual conference alignments, it’s happened before and is suspect that’s what will happen here. One affiliation for football and basketball and another for everything else under the old conference model.

The B1G will never allow a group of schools who play a sport that they sponsor to fly a different flag. It would dilute the brand and more importantly lose market share. As little as that is. It's still live content and live content rules the roost. There is zero reason to give it up, and a ton of reasons not to.

The B1G isn't done. The only question at this point is which other teams come. If two or even four more lacrosse playing schools are fortunate to find a chair, it's going to make B1G lacrosse even more exciting. It also would pave the way for possibly more schools to sponsor the sport. With the incredible figures being thrown around for media rights, it's not too far fetched now.

[1766]

Lacrosse
Duke
UNC
MD
OSU
Penn St
Rutgers
Michigan
ND

Hopkins likely out
Leaving 7 conference games

Would be an epic conference

Which would be very ironic because I said this could be an issue way back when Hopkins made the dumb decision to move to a conference. That the B1G would push out Hopkins as soon as they got a 6th team - at that point I felt like it was Northwestern offering a DI team - but this is just as likely.

I would be very shocked if the B1G decided to jettison Hopkins. There is simply no reason to. It's still a marquee program with growing ties to the conference. They are also very tied to Maryland. The only way I see Hopkins leaving the B1G is voluntarily due to competitive reasons, and I don't see that happening either. Hopkins lacrosse is too storied and proud to wave a white flag.

[ggait]

That’s basically what I’m suggesting though maybe also inclusive of BB.

Football is a couple of divisions of one league separate from the rest except for effectively renting the university names and infrastructure.

It occurs to me that ND has had the right model all along.

Separate its big brand/dollar football program from the rest of the college sports.

Football can playing other high brand programs anywhere in the country. They've been doing that with USC for 100 years, going back to the days when travel was by train. With plane travel, they have long been playing schools located anywhere in the country -- LA, San Fran, NYC, Boston, etc. They've even played some games in Ireland.

For the rest of their sports, a regional conference makes sense -- the old Big East, the ACC, or the B10 (which they belong to for ice hockey). Any of those conferences work fine -- so long as you leave football out of it.

[DocBarrister]

That’s basically what I’m suggesting though maybe also inclusive of BB.

Football is a couple of divisions of one league separate from the rest except for effectively renting the university names and infrastructure.

It occurs to me that ND has had the right model all along.

Separate its big brand/dollar football program from the rest of the college sports.

Football can playing other high brand programs anywhere in the country. They've been doing that with USC for 100 years, going back to the days when travel was by train. With plane travel, they have long been playing schools located anywhere in the country -- LA, San Fran, NYC, Boston, etc. They've even played some games in Ireland.

For the rest of their sports, a regional conference makes sense -- the old Big East, the ACC, or the B10 (which they belong to for ice hockey). Any of those conferences work fine -- so long as you leave football out of it.

It has worked well for Notre Dame so far. However, one reason former Head Coach Brian Kelly cited for jumping to LSU was Notre Dame’s outdated facilities. Notre Dame makes about $15 million a year from their current NBC deal ( https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... -deal-2025 ), but that isn’t nearly enough to keep up with the Alabamas and Ohio States of the college football world.

Heck, it’s not even enough to keep up with the ACC.

Now with some of Notre Dame’s traditional rivals all in the Big Ten (Michigan, Michigan St., Purdue, and USC), how long can Notre Dame hold out as an independent? When will the prospect of making $100 million a year in the B1G become too tempting to resist?

DocBarrister

[wgdsr]

That’s basically what I’m suggesting though maybe also inclusive of BB.

Football is a couple of divisions of one league separate from the rest except for effectively renting the university names and infrastructure.

It occurs to me that ND has had the right model all along.

Separate its big brand/dollar football program from the rest of the college sports.

Football can playing other high brand programs anywhere in the country. They've been doing that with USC for 100 years, going back to the days when travel was by train. With plane travel, they have long been playing schools located anywhere in the country -- LA, San Fran, NYC, Boston, etc. They've even played some games in Ireland.

For the rest of their sports, a regional conference makes sense -- the old Big East, the ACC, or the B10 (which they belong to for ice hockey). Any of those conferences work fine -- so long as you leave football out of it.

It has worked well for Notre Dame so far. However, one reason former Head Coach Brian Kelly cited for jumping to LSU was Notre Dame’s outdated facilities. Notre Dame makes about $15 million a year from their current NBC deal ( https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... -deal-2025 ), but that isn’t nearly enough to keep up with the Alabamas and Ohio States of the college football world.

Heck, it’s not even enough to keep up with the ACC.

Now with some of Notre Dame’s traditional rivals all in the Big Ten (Michigan, Michigan St., Purdue, and USC), how long can Notre Dame hold out as an independent? When will the prospect of making $100 million a year in the B1G become too tempting to resist?

DocBarrister

notre dame brings in as much money as alabama and twice as much as a number of schools in the b1g. probably the sec also.

my guess is $$ doesn't drive their decisions. or at least it hasn't to date.

something in their thinking will have to radically change. we'll see what happens.

[OCanada]

Kelly left a school where he could not get anyone he wanted and went to a program he can get anyone in. I believe he alluded to it in an interview after he left.

[Dip&Dunk]

notre dame brings in as much money as alabama and twice as much as a number of schools in the b1g. probably the sec also.

my guess is $$ doesn't drive their decisions. or at least it hasn't to date.

something in their thinking will have to radically change. we'll see what happens.
[/quote]
For what it is worth,
Notre Dame is behind Texas (#1 by far), Michigan, Georgia, Florida, LSU and Auburn but just ahead of Alabama in sports revenue in 2021.

[DocBarrister]

notre dame brings in as much money as alabama and twice as much as a number of schools in the b1g. probably the sec also.

my guess is $$ doesn't drive their decisions. or at least it hasn't to date.

something in their thinking will have to radically change. we'll see what happens.

For what it is worth,
Notre Dame is behind Texas (#1 by far), Michigan, Georgia, Florida, LSU and Auburn but just ahead of Alabama in sports revenue in 2021.
[/quote]

And if Notre Dame does not eventually join the Big Ten or (extremely unlikely) the SEC, the Fighting Irish will fall behind a couple of dozen other schools in annual sports revenue. Notre Dame will easily tolerate a half-dozen schools earning more in sports revenue, but thirty?

DocBarrister

[ggait]

One reason nd’s $$$ is lower is because they signed a long term deal with nbc which is now dated.

That can contract will expire and get renegotiated in the next couple years and will reflect current market. So their $$$ will be fine.

The reason they would join a conference is to maintain access to the CFP. If they want/need a conference, they will have their pick.

But my point was that they long ago separated football from their other sports. Which makes a lot of sense. If other schools had done that for football too, there would be no need to realign all these conferences

[Leonard Washington]

The reason they would join a conference is to maintain access to the CFP. If they want/need a conference, they will have their pick.

The CFB expires in 2025. If I'm ND, why not wait to see if the CFB is still around or if the BIG10 and SEC have morphed into those 2 super conferences (all though I have read reports that leaders wanted to cap each conference at 20)? The $$$ may be to great, but they can still have their cake and eat it to (ACC) until they get a clearer picture of what is going to happen with CFB (I still think it's going to be 4 conferences with the Pac-12 dissolving, leaving the ACC, BIG10, BIG12 and SEC).

[Typical Lax Dad]

The reason they would join a conference is to maintain access to the CFP. If they want/need a conference, they will have their pick.

The CFB expires in 2025. If I'm ND, why not wait to see if the CFB is still around or if the BIG10 and SEC have morphed into those 2 super conferences (all though I have read reports that leaders wanted to cap each conference at 20)? The $$$ may be to great, but they can still have their cake and eat it to (ACC) until they get a clearer picture of what is going to happen with CFB (I still think it's going to be 4 conferences with the Pac-12 dissolving, leaving the ACC, BIG10, BIG12 and SEC).

You find that light saber??!!

[wgdsr]

One reason nd’s $$$ is lower is because they signed a long term deal with nbc which is now dated.

That can contract will expire and get renegotiated in the next couple years and will reflect current market. So their $$$ will be fine.

The reason they would join a conference is to maintain access to the CFP. If they want/need a conference, they will have their pick.

But my point was that they long ago separated football from their other sports. Which makes a lot of sense. If other schools had done that for football too, there would be no need to realign all these conferences

nd has built their own brand, which largely means that if there is great value to a conference to cut them in, they can also simply keep all that equity for themselves... by signing their own large deal. obviously, at any point along the line prior to joining the acc-ish for other sports, they could have changed course.

and not gotten them locked in to a acc-only/buyout situation. i don't think nd is stupid. they most certainly will take a walk back over to nbc (or others) to see what a new deal would look like as they weigh independence or not. not getting a future cfp deal done a month or 2 ago certainly makes the picture cloudier for them, so we'll see how they play their cards. they'd have to think they could come into any conference at any time down the road.

imma go under on the media rights package for the b1g going from $400m+ to $1.6 - 2.0 billion annually, with or without nd.

[wgdsr]

in the unfounded rumors department, from of all places a swim website:
https://swimswam.com/source-virginia-no ... ce=twitter

they don't give source's first name... but interestingly, their take is espn is now the one trying to get out of the acc deal. they're of course the other party who's supposedly being damaged if an acc team moves to another conference in the gor agreement. quite the turn of play if it's to be believed.

and other rumor imbedded is that florida and ky would block miami and louisville, paving the way for a unc/uva.

[pcowlax]

I disagree a bit on ND. For many years they had one of if not the highest athletic $$ incomes largely because they were the only ones with their own TV network and there were no, or at least no high paying, conference networks. Of course they also have a large following and sell a lot of mech but that income is going to be dwarfed by coming rights deals. As the SEC and BIG10 networks have exploded and payouts to members have risen, ND's financial advantages have eroded. As Doc said, if they are not part of SEC or BIG10, they will soon be far behind a few dozen schools in revenue. And I do not think their brand is what they think it is. They haven't won a title in decades, they lag many teams in NFL draft picks, their games do not draw the ratings of top SEC/BIG10 games or of course, anything close to the combined SEC or BIG10 ratings. Would those conferences like ND? Sure. But they are not going to dramatically alter the financial picture for either conference and certainly not the on field product. ND needs to be in one of the superconferences for financial and, obviously, for football reasons. The conferences do not need ND. I don't think they really have the hand in this situation some others seem to think they do. Here are top 25 teams for average TV ratings in 2021.

Ohio State — 5.22M
Michigan — 4.74M
Alabama — 4.64M
Penn State — 3.87M
Georgia — 3.61M
Oklahoma — 3.46M
Auburn — 3.22M
Michigan State — 2.89M
Notre Dame — 2.84M
Oregon — 2.57M
Wisconsin — 2.41M
Nebraska — 2.29M
Texas — 2.26M
Florida — 2.21M
Arkansas — 2.03M
LSU — 1.90M
Texas A&M — 1.86M
Mississippi — 1.81M
Clemson — 1.74M
Iowa — 1.64M
Purdue — 1.63M
Oklahoma State — 1.58M
Tennessee — 1.51M
Minnesota — 1.28M
Florida State — 1.27M

[PulpExposure]

https://twitter.com/braden_keith/status ... s2eA7JAUFQ

If true this is the end of the ACC.

Edit - referring to what wg posted above.

[1766]

ND to the Big Ten chatter is really heating up.

[HooDat]

in the unfounded rumors department, from of all places a swim website:
https://swimswam.com/source-virginia-no ... ce=twitter

they don't give source's first name... but interestingly, their take is espn is now the one trying to get out of the acc deal. they're of course the other party who's supposedly being damaged if an acc team moves to another conference in the gor agreement. quite the turn of play if it's to be believed.

and other rumor imbedded is that florida and ky would block miami and louisville, paving the way for a unc/uva.

Thus creating a huge Win/Win in my book: reinforcing the South's Oldest Rivalry - UVA vs UNC and getting the hokies out of UVA's conference!

[1766]

ESPN trying to get out of the Acc deal if true, would lend credence to ND going to the B1G.

ND ending their scheduling agreement with Acc teams would make the deal worth substantially less if those games are no longer part of the ESPN networks.

The Acc made a short term decision to allow ND to park all of their sports in that conference accept football. That short term decision will come back to haunt them. The Big East made the same exact mistake back in the day. If the Acc had their current commissioner, I doubt that would have happened.

[DocBarrister]

https://twitter.com/braden_keith/status ... s2eA7JAUFQ

If true this is the end of the ACC.

Edit - referring to what wg posted above.

ESPN efforts mean grant-of-rights deterrent is also close to being dead (nice try, ACC).

I agree with others here … Notre Dame has some leverage right now, but their power is fleeting.

The PAC12 is on life support and the ACC looks to unravel fairly quickly.

If I were the Big12, I would be on the phone with every PAC12 and ACC team willing to join them.

As for the Big Ten, they cannot wait for a decision from Notre Dame. They need to figure out how to keep up with the SEC.

As for the SEC itself … when will the pretense stop and the SEC admits it’s really a professional sports league that just happens to own some quasi-academic institutions as window dressing?

DocBarrister

[LaxFan2000]

https://twitter.com/braden_keith/status ... s2eA7JAUFQ

If true this is the end of the ACC.

Edit - referring to what wg posted above.

ESPN efforts mean grant-of-rights deterrent is also close to being dead (nice try, ACC).

I agree with others here … Notre Dame has some leverage right now, but their power is fleeting.

The PAC12 is on life support and the ACC looks to unravel fairly quickly.

If I were the Big12, I would be on the phone with every PAC12 and ACC team willing to join them.

As for the Big Ten, they cannot wait for a decision from Notre Dame. They need to figure out how to keep up with the SEC.

As for the SEC itself … when will the pretense stop and the SEC admits it’s really a professional sports league that just happens to own some quasi-academic institutions as window dressing?

DocBarrister

Stating it like it is a done deal . I guess as wgdsr stated, you know better than ALL of us.