NCAA reorg imminent

[a fan]

Big Ten isn't going to stand pat at 16. They're gonna go for Notre Dame, and probably get them, and if Stanford would like to jump on board they'll gladly take them. Oregon and Washington also could join as well. It's a race to 20 for the B1G and SEC. ACC is going to get raided

ACC has leverage, UNC and DUKE Basketball. The two premier programs in the sport.

Acc has zero leverage. Their basketball teams aren't moving the needle. Their media rights deal is not in the same ballpark as the SEC/B1G.

With USC/UCLA now officially in the Big Ten, the yearly payout per school is going to be at least 2x-3x what the Acc makes. It's not sustainable to compete with those programs if you aren't in one of those two conferences.

the acc's 1st contract in 2012 was for 12 years with look ins @ 2017 and 2022. they tore up the contract and got a new one in 2016.
this new one has look ins every 5 years, but i believe they pushed the 1st one out (to this year?) because the acc network had a late launch and comcast just came on board.

they also had all schools sign a pretty ironclad grant of rights in 2015 or 2016. there isn't just one possible scenario here, no matter how much fans of other conferences want it so.

The Big 12 has a GOR. That didn't stop Texas and Oklahoma. It won't stop Acc schools who want out either.

Unc and Uva bring new markets and fit the profile of Big Ten schools. Those are two schools I wouldn't be shocked if they moved. The other piece from an Acc standpoint is Notre Dame. Their football independence just got squeezed significantly.

the sooners' and texas deal was thru 2025:
https://tulsaworld.com/sports/college/f ... -11eb-9cb5
so really... not at all similar, maybe even a reason for their delay.
notre dame did not get squeezed today. maybe that changes tomorrow. it's usc and ucla. again, all of this times 1000 is what people insisted was happening 8 or 9 years ago.

Does the NCAA have any contracts with schools?

[jrn19]

all of the people insisted this was happening 8 or 9 years ago and 8 or 9 years later the two biggest schools in the Big 12 left for the ESPN conference and maybe the two biggest schools in the PAC-12 left for the FOX conference. seems like it's happening! but these are the same people who were saying 10 years ago the ACC was going to get a lucrative TV deal and not the clearance aisle deal for 25 years they got.

[wgdsr]

all of the people insisted this was happening 8 or 9 years ago and 8 or 9 years later the two biggest schools in the Big 12 left for the ESPN conference and maybe the two biggest schools in the PAC-12 left for the FOX conference. seems like it's happening! but these are the same people who were saying 10 years ago the ACC was going to get a lucrative TV deal and not the clearance aisle deal for 25 years they got.

so, let's pick this up again in 2030?
i come on to fanlax for all the certain takes on how posters have everything in the nc$$ mapped out, including tv contracts that haven't been negotiated yet.
and it's 20 years. not even a full generation anymore.

[wgdsr]

Big Ten isn't going to stand pat at 16. They're gonna go for Notre Dame, and probably get them, and if Stanford would like to jump on board they'll gladly take them. Oregon and Washington also could join as well. It's a race to 20 for the B1G and SEC. ACC is going to get raided

ACC has leverage, UNC and DUKE Basketball. The two premier programs in the sport.

Acc has zero leverage. Their basketball teams aren't moving the needle. Their media rights deal is not in the same ballpark as the SEC/B1G.

With USC/UCLA now officially in the Big Ten, the yearly payout per school is going to be at least 2x-3x what the Acc makes. It's not sustainable to compete with those programs if you aren't in one of those two conferences.

the acc's 1st contract in 2012 was for 12 years with look ins @ 2017 and 2022. they tore up the contract and got a new one in 2016.
this new one has look ins every 5 years, but i believe they pushed the 1st one out (to this year?) because the acc network had a late launch and comcast just came on board.

they also had all schools sign a pretty ironclad grant of rights in 2015 or 2016. there isn't just one possible scenario here, no matter how much fans of other conferences want it so.

The Big 12 has a GOR. That didn't stop Texas and Oklahoma. It won't stop Acc schools who want out either.

Unc and Uva bring new markets and fit the profile of Big Ten schools. Those are two schools I wouldn't be shocked if they moved. The other piece from an Acc standpoint is Notre Dame. Their football independence just got squeezed significantly.

the sooners' and texas deal was thru 2025:
https://tulsaworld.com/sports/college/f ... -11eb-9cb5
so really... not at all similar, maybe even a reason for their delay.
notre dame did not get squeezed today. maybe that changes tomorrow. it's usc and ucla. again, all of this times 1000 is what people insisted was happening 8 or 9 years ago.

Does the NCAA have any contracts with schools?

it's an interesting question. you can bet there'll be litigation.
i would guess? no one is on in perpetuity. and given this was all the rage for p5 schools to threaten leaving over a decade ago, there's outs then or at least by now.

this is all about money and fame. bunch of old folks have hitched their reins to a golden goose, and want all the eggs. sad, really.

[DocBarrister]

the crazy takes are only going to get hotter, folks!!!

the end of acc lacrosse! bc the domers, the only acc squad that (checks notes) has zero championships!

taking on umd and rutgers really changed everything in college sports!

i vividly remember almost a decade ago all the prognostications for the imminent death of nc$$ everything not b1g and sec. and yet, here we are.

If, as many expect, Notre Dame takes its entire show to the B1G, that leaves four “ACC” teams. Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Duke will continue playing lacrosse, of course, but they won’t be doing it in an ACC lacrosse conference. Even if “ACC” lacrosse continues, what purpose is there to a four-team conference?

Frankly, I think those four teams will soon be begging to join the B1G or SEC. I don’t think this mass consolidation is going to end with football. I suspect the B1G and SEC are also eyeing basketball dominance … essentially eliminating the NCAA from the picture.

DocBarrister

thanks, this is exactly what i meant.

ACC will be raided, and will then need to merge with at least one other conference.

There is already speculation of the remnants of the PAC12 merging with whatever remains of the Big12. Whatever remains of the ACC may want to join that PAC12/Big12 conference.

DocBarrister

any stock tips?

Yeah … when making beef stock for French onion soup, use roasted beef bone with mirepoix.

Bon Appétit!

DocBarrister

[a fan]

this is all about money and fame. bunch of old folks have hitched their reins to a golden goose, and want all the eggs. sad, really.

Very. I'd imagine you agree, but these people lost their souls with this nonsense a long time ago.

Thanks for the answer.

[keno in reno]

Big Ten isn't going to stand pat at 16. They're gonna go for Notre Dame, and probably get them, and if Stanford would like to jump on board they'll gladly take them. Oregon and Washington also could join as well. It's a race to 20 for the B1G and SEC. ACC is going to get raided

Colorado would make more sense as the first Pac12 option because of the Denver market and as a geographical bridge. Cal would probably be #2 if anyone up there cared about college sports, then I assume Washington, Arizona/ASU and Oregon. Stanford is prestigious but that's not what this is about.

[PulpExposure]

https://twitter.com/lamikeblack/status/ ... vFTPOMKXUQ

Oregon and Univ of Washington apply for Big 10 too.

[keno in reno]

https://twitter.com/lamikeblack/status/ ... vFTPOMKXUQ

Oregon and Univ of Washington apply for Big 10 too.

Way to leave your little brothers hanging! I'd imagine some wacky state politics could kill some of these moves, ie Ducks don't go with out Beavers, and/or UW without Wazzu. Even Cal/UCLA....

[DocBarrister]

https://twitter.com/lamikeblack/status/ ... vFTPOMKXUQ

Oregon and Univ of Washington apply for Big 10 too.

Way to leave your little brothers hanging! I'd imagine some wacky state politics could kill some of these moves, ie Ducks don't go with out Beavers, and/or UW without Wazzu. Even Cal/UCLA....

The B1G doesn’t want those “little brother” schools. Dilutes the brand. I think the B1G will eventually take in Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Notre Dame will probably come in (maybe if the B1G agrees to handle the ACC exit fees). If the B1G wants to be at 20 schools, an underperforming school (maybe Purdue?) may get kicked out.

Then you have two B1G divisions of ten schools. Top four in each make the B1G playoffs. Three rounds to crown the B1G champion. Then the B1G champion takes on the SEC champion in a “College Super Bowl” (alternating broadcast on Fox and ESPN) for the “national” championship. Or something like that.

That’s where this is all headed, it seems.

DocBarrister

[PulpExposure]

The B1G doesn’t want those “little brother” schools. Dilutes the brand. I think the B1G will eventually take in Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Notre Dame will probably come in (maybe if the B1G agrees to handle the ACC exit fees). I=

ND is not a full member of the ACC. They're Big10 for Ice Hockey, Independent for Football. I don't think they have exit fees?

[LaxFan2000]

https://twitter.com/lamikeblack/status/ ... vFTPOMKXUQ

Oregon and Univ of Washington apply for Big 10 too.

Way to leave your little brothers hanging! I'd imagine some wacky state politics could kill some of these moves, ie Ducks don't go with out Beavers, and/or UW without Wazzu. Even Cal/UCLA....

The B1G doesn’t want those “little brother” schools. Dilutes the brand. I think the B1G will eventually take in Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Notre Dame will probably come in (maybe if the B1G agrees to handle the ACC exit fees). If the B1G wants to be at 20 schools, an underperforming school (maybe Purdue?) may get kicked out.

Then you have two B1G divisions of ten schools. Top four in each make the B1G playoffs. Three rounds to crown the B1G champion. Then the B1G champion takes on the SEC champion in a “College Super Bowl” (alternating broadcast on Fox and ESPN) for the “national” championship. Or something like that.

That’s where this is all headed, it seems.

DocBarrister

The Big Ten will NEVER, I mean NEVER kick Purdue out. That is utter nonsensical speculation on your part. It's a founding member of the Big Ten.

[wgdsr]

The B1G doesn’t want those “little brother” schools. Dilutes the brand. I think the B1G will eventually take in Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Notre Dame will probably come in (maybe if the B1G agrees to handle the ACC exit fees). I=

ND is not a full member of the ACC. They're Big10 for Ice Hockey, Independent for Football. I don't think they have exit fees?

exit fees for anyone in the acc are a drop in the bucket. grant of rights for 15 years are the elephant. notre dame is in on that, and are contractually obligated to go acc for football if they join a conference. things can always change, and there are miles to go before i sleep. it's still early.

[Asgot]

the crazy takes are only going to get hotter, folks!!!

the end of acc lacrosse! bc the domers, the only acc squad that (checks notes) has zero championships!

taking on umd and rutgers really changed everything in college sports!

i vividly remember almost a decade ago all the prognostications for the imminent death of nc$$ everything not b1g and sec. and yet, here we are.

If, as many expect, Notre Dame takes its entire show to the B1G, that leaves four “ACC” teams. Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Duke will continue playing lacrosse, of course, but they won’t be doing it in an ACC lacrosse conference. Even if “ACC” lacrosse continues, what purpose is there to a four-team conference?

Frankly, I think those four teams will soon be begging to join the B1G or SEC. I don’t think this mass consolidation is going to end with football. I suspect the B1G and SEC are also eyeing basketball dominance … essentially eliminating the NCAA from the picture.

DocBarrister

thanks, this is exactly what i meant.

ACC will be raided, and will then need to merge with at least one other conference.

There is already speculation of the remnants of the PAC12 merging with whatever remains of the Big12. Whatever remains of the ACC may want to join that PAC12/Big12 conference.

DocBarrister

any stock tips?

Yeah … when making beef stock for French onion soup, use roasted beef bone with mirepoix.

Bon Appétit!

DocBarrister

Don’t forget the tomato paste and make sure that you roast the onions, will give you great color

[DocBarrister]

https://twitter.com/lamikeblack/status/ ... vFTPOMKXUQ

Oregon and Univ of Washington apply for Big 10 too.

Way to leave your little brothers hanging! I'd imagine some wacky state politics could kill some of these moves, ie Ducks don't go with out Beavers, and/or UW without Wazzu. Even Cal/UCLA....

The B1G doesn’t want those “little brother” schools. Dilutes the brand. I think the B1G will eventually take in Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Notre Dame will probably come in (maybe if the B1G agrees to handle the ACC exit fees). If the B1G wants to be at 20 schools, an underperforming school (maybe Purdue?) may get kicked out.

Then you have two B1G divisions of ten schools. Top four in each make the B1G playoffs. Three rounds to crown the B1G champion. Then the B1G champion takes on the SEC champion in a “College Super Bowl” (alternating broadcast on Fox and ESPN) for the “national” championship. Or something like that.

That’s where this is all headed, it seems.

DocBarrister

The Big Ten will NEVER, I mean NEVER kick Purdue out. That is utter nonsensical speculation on your part. It's a founding member of the Big Ten.

It’s not me. The Indy Star and others have been doing the speculating.

https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/c ... 784416001/

Nothing is sacred anymore in college football.

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

the crazy takes are only going to get hotter, folks!!!

the end of acc lacrosse! bc the domers, the only acc squad that (checks notes) has zero championships!

taking on umd and rutgers really changed everything in college sports!

i vividly remember almost a decade ago all the prognostications for the imminent death of nc$$ everything not b1g and sec. and yet, here we are.

If, as many expect, Notre Dame takes its entire show to the B1G, that leaves four “ACC” teams. Virginia, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Duke will continue playing lacrosse, of course, but they won’t be doing it in an ACC lacrosse conference. Even if “ACC” lacrosse continues, what purpose is there to a four-team conference?

Frankly, I think those four teams will soon be begging to join the B1G or SEC. I don’t think this mass consolidation is going to end with football. I suspect the B1G and SEC are also eyeing basketball dominance … essentially eliminating the NCAA from the picture.

DocBarrister

thanks, this is exactly what i meant.

ACC will be raided, and will then need to merge with at least one other conference.

There is already speculation of the remnants of the PAC12 merging with whatever remains of the Big12. Whatever remains of the ACC may want to join that PAC12/Big12 conference.

DocBarrister

any stock tips?

Yeah … when making beef stock for French onion soup, use roasted beef bone with mirepoix.

Bon Appétit!

DocBarrister

Don’t forget the tomato paste and make sure that you roast the onions, will give you great color

Agree!

DocBarrister

[DocBarrister]

The B1G doesn’t want those “little brother” schools. Dilutes the brand. I think the B1G will eventually take in Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Notre Dame will probably come in (maybe if the B1G agrees to handle the ACC exit fees). I=

ND is not a full member of the ACC. They're Big10 for Ice Hockey, Independent for Football. I don't think they have exit fees?

exit fees for anyone in the acc are a drop in the bucket. grant of rights for 15 years are the elephant. notre dame is in on that, and are contractually obligated to go acc for football if they join a conference. things can always change, and there are miles to go before i sleep. it's still early.

Whatever contractual obligations Notre Dame or any other school has to the ACC, that will not stop a move to another conference.

Clemson could potentially make nearly three times more in the SEC (some sources are suggesting $100 million/year or more) than in the ACC (about $35 million/year). FSU and Miami may follow.

ACC football may be decimated before the year is done.

DocBarrister

[PulpExposure]

The B1G doesn’t want those “little brother” schools. Dilutes the brand. I think the B1G will eventually take in Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Notre Dame will probably come in (maybe if the B1G agrees to handle the ACC exit fees). I=

ND is not a full member of the ACC. They're Big10 for Ice Hockey, Independent for Football. I don't think they have exit fees?

exit fees for anyone in the acc are a drop in the bucket. grant of rights for 15 years are the elephant. notre dame is in on that, and are contractually obligated to go acc for football if they join a conference. things can always change, and there are miles to go before i sleep. it's still early.

Whatever contractual obligations Notre Dame or any other school has to the ACC, that will not stop a move to another conference.

Clemson could potentially make nearly three times more in the SEC (some sources are suggesting $100 million/year or more) than in the ACC (about $35 million/year). FSU and Miami may follow.

ACC football may be decimated before the year is done.

DocBarrister

I'm sure they can get that in the SEC. That's the expected figure for the next Big10 TV deal...100 mill a year or more each.

[DocBarrister]

The B1G doesn’t want those “little brother” schools. Dilutes the brand. I think the B1G will eventually take in Oregon, Washington, Cal, and Stanford. Notre Dame will probably come in (maybe if the B1G agrees to handle the ACC exit fees). I=

ND is not a full member of the ACC. They're Big10 for Ice Hockey, Independent for Football. I don't think they have exit fees?

exit fees for anyone in the acc are a drop in the bucket. grant of rights for 15 years are the elephant. notre dame is in on that, and are contractually obligated to go acc for football if they join a conference. things can always change, and there are miles to go before i sleep. it's still early.

Whatever contractual obligations Notre Dame or any other school has to the ACC, that will not stop a move to another conference.

Clemson could potentially make nearly three times more in the SEC (some sources are suggesting $100 million/year or more) than in the ACC (about $35 million/year). FSU and Miami may follow.

ACC football may be decimated before the year is done.

DocBarrister

I'm sure they can get that in the SEC. That's the expected figure for the next Big10 TV deal...100 mill a year or more each.

That also happens to be double the approximately $54 million in total annual revenue that Notre Dame generated from its football program.

How long can the Fighting Irish hold out against that kind of money?!?

DocBarrister

[OCanada]

The reorg first began at least 10 years ago. I posted a couple of times in the last year mo ing closer. The SEC’s new tv contract will be bested by the new B1G contract. There is talk Oregon and Washington might depart w a couple of others joining them.