Virginia v Maryland

[rcolter]

For Maryland, these are not games. They are Acts in a Four Act Play, the Coronation of the King. What order the Acts come in, does not matter.

Yeesh give it a rest man

[molo]

Should UVA even bother to show up? The odds reflect regression to the mean. Maryland is so good that even if UVA shows up this time, the better team wins in a blowout, just by five or six goals instead of double digits.
While we’re using statistical terms—a minefield for this English major who still remembers struggling with stat in grad school—we can try a T test. What would I
UNC be like without Gray? How would Army West Point look without Nichtern? Would Penn still be in the hunt without Handley? Can you imagine UVA with no Shellenberger? Where would Maryland be if the probable T winner was sidelined? They would still be regarded the best team by a wide margin. That’s how far above the rest of the field they are.
But, maybe UVA can cut down on the face-off deficit. Maybe Nunes will show that he’s not just the best freshman goalie. Maybe Moore is healthy to put up five or six points. Maybe UVA’s depth at pole and ssdm will temper Maryland’s midfield scoring. Maybe both Saustad and Kastner will show emerge as the best one-two combo at close defense. Maybe Shellenberger will play like the best attackman in the country . Maybe another middie besides Dickson will pump in a couple of goals. And maybe Zinn will take some pounding as he runs out the clock.
Maybe it makes sense to play the game after all.

[Wheels]

Should UVA even bother to show up? The odds reflect regression to the mean. Maryland is so good that even if UVA shows up this time, the better team wins in a blowout, just by five or six goals instead of double digits.
While we’re using statistical terms—a minefield for this English major who still remembers struggling with stat in grad school—we can try a T test. What would I
UNC be like without Gray? How would Army West Point look without Nichtern? Would Penn still be in the hunt without Handley? Can you imagine UVA with no Shellenberger? Where would Maryland be if the probable T winner was sidelined? They would still be regarded the best team by a wide margin. That’s how far above the rest of the field they are.
But, maybe UVA can cut down on the face-off deficit. Maybe Nunes will show that he’s not just the best freshman goalie. Maybe Moore is healthy to put up five or six points. Maybe UVA’s depth at pole and ssdm will temper Maryland’s midfield scoring. Maybe both Saustad and Kastner will show emerge as the best one-two combo at close defense. Maybe Shellenberger will play like the best attackman in the country . Maybe another middie besides Dickson will pump in a couple of goals. And maybe Zinn will take some pounding as he runs out the clock.
Maybe it makes sense to play the game after all.

Since both regression and T-tests (and AVOVAs) run off of the general linear model, I'll allow the use of your statistical analysis of choice. Although, I do need more information about what outcome you're measuring to compare the means between two teams. 15 games or so is still a relatively small sample, so in a low power situation, I'm not sure how much we can infer from any statistical comparison between teams.

[MoralTerpitude]

Should UVA even bother to show up? The odds reflect regression to the mean. Maryland is so good that even if UVA shows up this time, the better team wins in a blowout, just by five or six goals instead of double digits.
While we’re using statistical terms—a minefield for this English major who still remembers struggling with stat in grad school—we can try a T test. What would I
UNC be like without Gray? How would Army West Point look without Nichtern? Would Penn still be in the hunt without Handley? Can you imagine UVA with no Shellenberger? Where would Maryland be if the probable T winner was sidelined? They would still be regarded the best team by a wide margin. That’s how far above the rest of the field they are.
But, maybe UVA can cut down on the face-off deficit. Maybe Nunes will show that he’s not just the best freshman goalie. Maybe Moore is healthy to put up five or six points. Maybe UVA’s depth at pole and ssdm will temper Maryland’s midfield scoring. Maybe both Saustad and Kastner will show emerge as the best one-two combo at close defense. Maybe Shellenberger will play like the best attackman in the country . Maybe another middie besides Dickson will pump in a couple of goals. And maybe Zinn will take some pounding as he runs out the clock.
Maybe it makes sense to play the game after all.

UVa will need a special performance to win, but does anyone doubt that Tiffany can coax a special performance out of his team? It’s what he does. Maryland will be ready too. This going to be a helluva a game, a battle of two true heavyweights, so get your DVR’s ready. Can’t wait, this is going to be the best lacrosse game of the year.

[molo]

Wheels, I got lost pretty quickly in stat back in 73. My memory for ghost course hasn’t aged well.

[blue angels]

Hardly unfair. You don't seed teams based on potential. You seed them on results.

All you ever hear is about how much talent Uva has. Yet when you look at their results, they aren't some outlier being placed where they were. Potential doesn't mean anything now.

Is this the latest Acc narrative that the lacrosse world is going to have to endure after the supposed ND snub fades? Uva would have won if they didn't play Maryland in the quarters?

Thanks for the tips Joey. What in the world does the Maryland Virginia contest have to do with your commuter school?

[Peter Brown]

I could of course be completely wrong (as PB was when he said OSU would beat Cornell).

I was goaded into this pick. My Cornell hate overtook my brain. A true moment of weakness. Never again.

Delaware by 4.

[Wheels]

Wheels, I got lost pretty quickly in stat back in 73. My memory for ghost course hasn’t aged well.

73 was a great year. From what I've heard. 74 was where it was at, though.

[10stone5]

I could of course be completely wrong (as PB was when he said OSU would beat Cornell).

I was goaded into this pick. My Cornell hate overtook my brain. A true moment of weakness. Never again.

Delaware by 4.

[molo]

74 was the year I fooled UVA the second time.

[10stone5]

I think everyone thinks the Wahoos can win this weekend.

I don't.

"can" or "will"... two different things.

Massey gives Maryland a 77% win probability, by a most-likely score of 16-12. If there are no injuries to any key Maryland players prior to or during the game, I give Maryland a 95% win probability.

I expect the game to go much the same way as the regular-season game.

laf had Terps at 75% to make the Final Four.
Those probabilities would need to be updated for the latest results such as Georgetown exiting the tournament.
The past 37 games, Maryland has an average margin of victory
of 6.8, a median margin of victory of 7, almost 1/3 of the wins
over those 37 games were by double digit, the Terps averaged
16.9 goals over those 37 games.
I’ve seen some commentary alluding to the obvious,
you’re looking at one of the all time teams in the Terps.
Now, you can’t really measure them just yet against the all
time multi-year champion teams.
But that sure looks like the direction that Maryland is heading,
they lose a lot next year especially with Wisnauskas exiting,
but its just as likely that Tillman replenishes that part just as
he was able to fill in with transfers for Bernhardt.

[1766]

Hardly unfair. You don't seed teams based on potential. You seed them on results.

All you ever hear is about how much talent Uva has. Yet when you look at their results, they aren't some outlier being placed where they were. Potential doesn't mean anything now.

Is this the latest Acc narrative that the lacrosse world is going to have to endure after the supposed ND snub fades? Uva would have won if they didn't play Maryland in the quarters?

Thanks for the tips Joey. What in the world does the Maryland Virginia contest have to do with your commuter school?

Commuter school lol? Joey lol x2? Care to take another try?

To answer your question, whatever I say. This is a message board. Guess I struck a nerve.

[groundballs44]

"De facto championship game"..."best two teams"..."unfair to the kids"...at what point are we going to stop acting like it's such a tragedy that these two teams are meeting in the quarters? The ACC had a down year, and UVA didn't beat a single tournament team in the regular season. And they lost the regular season matchup to MD by 11 goals. What have they done on the field to justify not being in this position?

Not questioning the talent on their roster, and if they string together a near perfect game they may have a chance, but to declare them one of the best 2 teams in the country this year feels undeserved. Plus - there are some pretty good teams still left in the tournament!

Hoping for a great game this Sunday afternoon, but not sure we'll get one.

PS - been perusing this site in the shadows for a while, feels good to get involved! Appreciate everyone's input and commitment to the game.

[1766]

Uva was lucky to get in over ND if we are being honest.

[joewillie78]

"De facto championship game"..."best two teams"..."unfair to the kids"...at what point are we going to stop acting like it's such a tragedy that these two teams are meeting in the quarters? The ACC had a down year, and UVA didn't beat a single tournament team in the regular season. And they lost the regular season matchup to MD by 11 goals. What have they done on the field to justify not being in this position?

Not questioning the talent on their roster, and if they string together a near perfect game they may have a chance, but to declare them one of the best 2 teams in the country this year feels undeserved. Plus - there are some pretty good teams still left in the tournament!

Hoping for a great game this Sunday afternoon, but not sure we'll get one.

PS - been perusing this site in the shadows for a while, feels good to get involved! Appreciate everyone's input and commitment to the game.

Great post and welcome.

Look, I'm thrilled when my team makes it in no matter what. Heck, even put them in the play-in game. Just give me a shot, and seed me wherever you want , but again, just give me a shot.
Somewhere along the line, you probably are going to have to beat Maryland, so what's the difference if you get them in the quarters or the final.
When Cornell got in , I was thrilled, when we got a seed, I was thrilled. If Cornell had Gotten Maryland in the first round, I would be like , Ok boys, if you think are good enough to win the NC, here's your shot at the best team in ages.
I know it's been over 50 years but Joe Willie was a 17 point underdog and guaranteed victory. He beat, the unbeatable.

Maybe my expectations are different from some fans, but again, just let my team in and be damned all the other crap.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

[Hoxwurth]

laf had Terps at 75% to make the Final Four.
Those probabilities would need to be updated for the latest results such as Georgetown exiting the tournament.
The past 37 games, Maryland has an average margin of victory
of 6.8, a median margin of victory of 7, almost 1/3 of the wins
over those 37 games were by double digit, the Terps averaged
16.9 goals over those 37 games.
I’ve seen some commentary alluding to the obvious,
you’re looking at one of the all time teams in the Terps.
Now, you can’t really measure them just yet against the all
time multi-year champion teams.
But that sure looks like the direction that Maryland is heading,
they lose a lot next year especially with Wisnauskas exiting,
but its just as likely that Tillman replenishes that part just as
he was able to fill in with transfers for Bernhardt.

Look at the draft this year--you don't just replace that level of talent, even if you get your pick of the portal.

[Laxter]

Uva was lucky to get in over ND if we are being honest.

Whose being honest? “Lucky to get in” over the team with a worse W/L record, who they beat head-to-head (handily) and who had a much lower RPI. Man, you sure know your stuff! If we’re being honest, they both should be in and the Ivy that got blown out by Rutgers probably should have been out.

And ACC fans get accused of having blind spots.

[groundballs44]

Uva was lucky to get in over ND if we are being honest.

Whose being honest? “Lucky to get in” over the team with a worse W/L record, who they beat head-to-head (handily) and who had a much lower RPI. Man, you sure know your stuff! If we’re being honest, they both should be in and the Ivy that got blown out by Rutgers probably should have been out.

And ACC fans get accused of having blind spots.

Other than "eye test" ( ) - why should ND have gotten in over Harvard? Not doubting that they could have played Rutgers closer, but based on resume Harvard was more deserving IMO. And that's ultimately what has to drive the selection process.

If we're really being honest, it seems the disgruntled ACC faithful should divert their attention to Syracuse and (to a lesser extent) UNC. If Syracuse doesn't have a historically abysmal year, and/or UNC has a better season, those wins for UVA/ND carry more weight and could've been enough to push ND into the tourney.

[Antonio114]

Uva was lucky to get in over ND if we are being honest.

Rutty fan talking crap like they dominated this season. Your one win of any value was to a team that just got bounced with ease in the first round. You had the easiest out of conference schedule humanly possible and yet you still had one goal games against Loyola, Stony Brook, Michigan, and Penn State, all weak teams this year. OSU doesn't make it or the ball bounces differently in one of those 4 games and you are in the Rutgers 2023 thread complaining endlessly about the committee once again not giving Rutgers an eye test.

[10stone5]

laf had Terps at 75% to make the Final Four.
Those probabilities would need to be updated for the latest results such as Georgetown exiting the tournament.
The past 37 games, Maryland has an average margin of victory
of 6.8, a median margin of victory of 7, almost 1/3 of the wins
over those 37 games were by double digit, the Terps averaged
16.9 goals over those 37 games.
I’ve seen some commentary alluding to the obvious,
you’re looking at one of the all time teams in the Terps.
Now, you can’t really measure them just yet against the all
time multi-year champion teams.
But that sure looks like the direction that Maryland is heading,
they lose a lot next year especially with Wisnauskas exiting,
but its just as likely that Tillman replenishes that part just as
he was able to fill in with transfers for Bernhardt.

Look at the draft this year--you don't just replace that level of talent, even if you get your pick of the portal.

Yeah, I’m still on the fence with that thought, next year,
all those replacements.