Quarterfinal: Loyola v. BC 5/19/22

[Seacoaster(1)]

In Chestnut Hill? I am hopeful that the Authorities keep this game at yesterday's venue, where the stands are packed and the fans are right up against the field barriers. BC defense still looked good yesterday without Scales, but they miss here all over as a cover person and in the clearing game. Her replacement, No. 25, did a nice job and looked to have good feet and good size.

Still, Loyola has a different and better offense than Denver, more weapons, more versatility. This should be a very good game. Go Hounds!!

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

In Chestnut Hill? I am hopeful that the Authorities keep this game at yesterday's venue, where the stands are packed and the fans are right up against the field barriers. BC defense still looked good yesterday without Scales, but they miss here all over as a cover person and in the clearing game. Her replacement, No. 25, did a nice job and looked to have good feet and good size.

Still, Loyola has a different and better offense than Denver, more weapons, more versatility. This should be a very good game. Go Hounds!!

That is the plan--to keep the game at the lacrosse field. (Both Alumni Stadium and the lacrosse field are located in Chestnut Hill.)

Like I said in another place--best show up early if you don't want to sit on the grass for the entire game. The stands will be jammed to capacity.

[user1020]

I hope Loyola pulls the upset here and I think they’re good enough to.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I hope Loyola pulls the upset here and I think they’re good enough to.

They are undoubtedly good enough. No question there.

[Lax101]

BC wins comfortably in my opinion. They are the better team in pretty much all aspects of the game and simply have more talent. Will lock off Loyola's best player and make others beat them. Also playing at home. I still can't get past the fact that Loyola struggled against very mediocre Ivy League teams.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I still can't get past the fact that Loyola struggled against very mediocre Ivy League teams.

I don’t see that as significant. They won, which in the end is all that matters. Since the 2nd season started the Hounds have looked plenty capable.

I do appreciate your confidence in the Eagles winning, however. I hope you end up being right.

[Dr. Tact]

They are the better team in pretty much all aspects of the game and simply have more talent.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

They are the better team in pretty much all aspects of the game and simply have more talent.

I’m with you Doc – I don’t believe that either. In what areas would you give Loyola the edge?

[Dr. Tact]

They are the better team in pretty much all aspects of the game and simply have more talent.

I’m with you Doc – I don’t believe that either. In what areas would you give Loyola the edge?

All stats below are based on 21 games for Loyola, 20 games for BC

Loyola advantage

Team scoring defense 7.48 vs. 9.90
Goalie - goals against average 7.68 vs 10.11: Save percentage .493 vs. .349
Assists per game 8.10 vs. 6.45
Draw controls percentage .612 vs. .568
Free position percentage .565 vs. .514
Shot Percentage .513 vs. .502
Ground balls per game 14.9 vs 13.45

BC advantage

RPI 3 vs 10
Strength of schedule #2 vs #21
Scoring Offense 17.00 vs. 16.76
Top six scorers 288 vs 267
Scoring average 17.00 vs 16.76
CTOs 8.40 vs 8.38
Draw controls per game 17.00 vs. 16.90
Clearing percentage .928 v .924
Fouls per game 14.55 vs. 22.81
Turnovers per game 11.85 vs. 12.81
Yellow Cards 24 vs. 29

I'm not going to get drug into a p*ssing contest. Boston College is the reigning National Champion. They play a tougher schedule. They are a significant favorite, but a blanket statement about being better in all aspects is not 100% accurate.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

They are the better team in pretty much all aspects of the game and simply have more talent.

I’m with you Doc – I don’t believe that either. In what areas would you give Loyola the edge?

Loyola advantage

Team scoring defense 7.48 vs. 9.90
Goalie - goals against average 7.68 vs 10.11: Save percentage .493 vs. .349
Assists per game 8.10 vs. 6.45
Draw controls percentage .612 vs. .568
Free position percentage .565 vs. .514
Shot Percentage .513 vs. .502
Ground balls per game 14.9 vs 13.45

BC advantage

RPI 3 vs 10
Strength of schedule #2 vs #21
Scoring Offense 17.00 vs. 16.76
Top six scorers 288 vs 267
Scoring average 17.00 vs 16.76
CTOs 8.40 vs 8.38
Draw controls per game 17.00 vs. 16.90
Clearing percentage .928 v .924
Fouls per game 14.55 vs. 22.81
Turnovers per game 11.85 vs. 12.81
Yellow Cards 24 vs. 29

I'm not going to get drug into a p*ssing contest. Boston College is the reigning National Champion. They play a tougher schedule. They are a significant favorite, but a blanket statement about being better in all aspects is not 100% accurate.

Great research, as always. Thanks for the generous response.

[Dr. Tact]

They are the better team in pretty much all aspects of the game and simply have more talent.

I’m with you Doc – I don’t believe that either. In what areas would you give Loyola the edge?

Loyola advantage

Team scoring defense 7.48 vs. 9.90
Goalie - goals against average 7.68 vs 10.11: Save percentage .493 vs. .349
Assists per game 8.10 vs. 6.45
Draw controls percentage .612 vs. .568
Free position percentage .565 vs. .514
Shot Percentage .513 vs. .502
Ground balls per game 14.9 vs 13.45

BC advantage

RPI 3 vs 10
Strength of schedule #2 vs #21
Scoring Offense 17.00 vs. 16.76
Top six scorers 288 vs 267
Scoring average 17.00 vs 16.76
CTOs 8.40 vs 8.38
Draw controls per game 17.00 vs. 16.90
Clearing percentage .928 v .924
Fouls per game 14.55 vs. 22.81
Turnovers per game 11.85 vs. 12.81
Yellow Cards 24 vs. 29

I'm not going to get drug into a p*ssing contest. Boston College is the reigning National Champion. They play a tougher schedule. They are a significant favorite, but a blanket statement about being better in all aspects is not 100% accurate.

Great research, as always. Thanks for the generous response.

Stats don't really mean anything ....If BC plays its average to its best, they win the game. If they have a down game (esp. Hall), then the Hounds could win. I wouldn't bet the house on either team....

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I wouldn't bet the house on either team....

You and me both.

[Lax101]

With even odds I would bet significantly on BC to win. BC has routinely faced teams as talented as Loyola. They are battle tested in huge games. Played Cuse 4 times last year, NC 4 times in last 2 years, etc. BC is the best team Loyola has faced and they have the player most difficult to match up with in North. Hard to prepare for North unless you have faced her before especially in a man to man defense. Loyola is also playing away in front of a sold out crowd. Loyola is a very good team and is well coached but at the end of the day the players will decide the outcome. I just love the grit and competitive spirit of BC. I also think if you rank every positional player for both teams - 1-4 on offense, 1-4 on defense and 1-3 on midfield you will find that BC has a clear advantage. I would give Loyola the clear edge is goal keeping but Rachel is at her best in the post season and played well vs Denver. I view the draw as being about even. If both teams play their typical game, IMO BC wins by 5.

[Dr. Tact]

With even odds I would bet significantly on BC to win. BC has routinely faced teams as talented as Loyola. They are battle tested in huge games. Played Cuse 4 times last year, NC 4 times in last 2 years, etc. BC is the best team Loyola has faced and they have the player most difficult to match up with in North. Hard to prepare for North unless you have faced her before especially in a man to man defense. Loyola is also playing away in front of a sold out crowd. Loyola is a very good team and is well coached but at the end of the day the players will decide the outcome. I just love the grit and competitive spirit of BC. I also think if you rank every positional player for both teams - 1-4 on offense, 1-4 on defense and 1-3 on midfield you will find that BC has a clear advantage. I would give Loyola the clear edge is goal keeping but Rachel is at her best in the post season and played well vs Denver. I view the draw as being about even. If both teams play their typical game, IMO BC wins by 5.

I have no rebuttal on most of your points. The only points I would question is your assertion that the starters for BC have a clear advantage ranked as you indicate. Attackers, maybe. Middies, hmmm (Starting BC middies 108 goals, Starting Loyola middies 132 goals). Defensively, I would argue that Loyola has the edge on the top 4 over BC.

So, I agree with you that the potential for an upset is thin....The median player for BC may be better and that is usually the reason that a team beats a team. BC clearly has the best record in big games and the best player in Lax (2021).

[LarryGamLax]

Lax101 stated the following..."but Rachel is at her best in the post season"

Why do you say that like it's an automatic thing? Tell me how that works from a Physical point because I am obviously quite dumb. Here's what I know : the "POST SEASON" starts after the regular season ends. That means the ACC tournament, correct? So, in three ACC Tournament games(2022) here are Rachel Hall's numbers :

Game 1 vs Virginia Tech , 13g 4S Win
Game 2 vs Virginia , 12g 1S Win
Game 3 vs UNC , 15g 7s Loss

Now if my math is correct, that's 40 goals allowed vs 12 saves in 3 games. Now remember, I'm an idiot, so explain to me how those "Post season" numbers (excluding the Denver game Sunday) come to show "Rachel is at her best in the post season"??

My point, real simple is : this nonsense about "making the saves when she has to" and "at her best in the post season" is a shot in the dark when your Goalie is coming from a base of 34.9%.

[@inthe8m]

I would give Loyola the clear edge is goal keeping but Rachel is at her best in the post season and played well vs Denver.

Loyola's goalie is very unorthodox - she continually plays very high in the crease leaving the goal wide open for shooters who are patient. She is solid on shots from distance when she has a chance to see and track the ball. Her SV% against the four good teams she played this year: UF 47%, Prince 25%, Cuse 39%, JMU 38%.

[@inthe8m]

Lax101 stated the following..."but Rachel is at her best in the post season"

Why do you say that like it's an automatic thing?

He is probably referencing Hall playing better during BC's run last year.

Hall's SV% in her last two games is 32% vs UNC and 50% vs Denver. However, I will venture to say that Loyola has a better offense and shooters than Denver.

[Lax101]

With even odds I would bet significantly on BC to win. BC has routinely faced teams as talented as Loyola. They are battle tested in huge games. Played Cuse 4 times last year, NC 4 times in last 2 years, etc. BC is the best team Loyola has faced and they have the player most difficult to match up with in North. Hard to prepare for North unless you have faced her before especially in a man to man defense. Loyola is also playing away in front of a sold out crowd. Loyola is a very good team and is well coached but at the end of the day the players will decide the outcome. I just love the grit and competitive spirit of BC. I also think if you rank every positional player for both teams - 1-4 on offense, 1-4 on defense and 1-3 on midfield you will find that BC has a clear advantage. I would give Loyola the clear edge is goal keeping but Rachel is at her best in the post season and played well vs Denver. I view the draw as being about even. If both teams play their typical game, IMO BC wins by 5.

I have no rebuttal on most of your points. The only points I would question is your assertion that the starters for BC have a clear advantage ranked as you indicate. Attackers, maybe. Middies, hmmm (Starting BC middies 108 goals, Starting Loyola middies 132 goals). Defensively, I would argue that Loyola has the edge on the top 4 over BC.

So, I agree with you that the potential for an upset is thin....The median player for BC may be better and that is usually the reason that a team beats a team. BC clearly has the best record in big games and the best player in Lax (2021).

Please don't rely on stats to compare players. If they don't play the same exact teams and play the same exact minutes it is largely meaningless. BC in big games will largely play 2 middies - Weeks and Smith. If you think Loyola's 2 middies are better so be it but the only team with 2 better IMO is probably UNC. Smith will likely be a 4x 1st Team All ACC player and Weeks is an absolute workhorse that is not relied on to score very much. They compliment one another perfectly. BC middies in Ivy games and other weak games play well less than 1/2 the game because BC plays 3+ lines in blowouts. Go watch Yale, Dartmouth, BU, Harvard games etc and count the minutes the middies played. You will be shocked. Every BC defender has been AA, honorable mention AA or pre-season AA of some sort - bottom line is they are all recognized as being very good if not great (Taylor, Schleicher, Syd and Roman). I think 3 are All ACC. Granted Scales is hurt but I would not take many defenses over BC. Edge on attack has to go to BC.

[Dr. Tact]

With even odds I would bet significantly on BC to win. BC has routinely faced teams as talented as Loyola. They are battle tested in huge games. Played Cuse 4 times last year, NC 4 times in last 2 years, etc. BC is the best team Loyola has faced and they have the player most difficult to match up with in North. Hard to prepare for North unless you have faced her before especially in a man to man defense. Loyola is also playing away in front of a sold out crowd. Loyola is a very good team and is well coached but at the end of the day the players will decide the outcome. I just love the grit and competitive spirit of BC. I also think if you rank every positional player for both teams - 1-4 on offense, 1-4 on defense and 1-3 on midfield you will find that BC has a clear advantage. I would give Loyola the clear edge is goal keeping but Rachel is at her best in the post season and played well vs Denver. I view the draw as being about even. If both teams play their typical game, IMO BC wins by 5.

I have no rebuttal on most of your points. The only points I would question is your assertion that the starters for BC have a clear advantage ranked as you indicate. Attackers, maybe. Middies, hmmm (Starting BC middies 108 goals, Starting Loyola middies 132 goals). Defensively, I would argue that Loyola has the edge on the top 4 over BC.

So, I agree with you that the potential for an upset is thin....The median player for BC may be better and that is usually the reason that a team beats a team. BC clearly has the best record in big games and the best player in Lax (2021).

Please don't rely on stats to compare players. If they don't play the same exact teams and play the same exact minutes it is largely meaningless. BC in big games will largely play 2 middies - Weeks and Smith. If you think Loyola's 2 middies are better so be it but the only team with 2 better IMO is probably UNC. Smith will likely be a 4x 1st Team All ACC player and Weeks is an absolute workhorse that is not relied on to score very much. They compliment one another perfectly. BC middies in Ivy games and other weak games play well less than 1/2 the game because BC plays 3+ lines in blowouts. Go watch Yale, Dartmouth, BU, Harvard games etc and count the minutes the middies played. You will be shocked. Every BC defender has been AA, honorable mention AA or pre-season AA of some sort - bottom line is they are all recognized as being very good if not great (Taylor, Schleicher, Syd and Roman). I think 3 are All ACC. Granted Scales is hurt but I would not take many defenses over BC. Edge on attack has to go to BC.

OK thanks for the definitive advice on what anyone should use for an argument. Your opinion is based on more factual information than mine. So you win. BC might as well put in the second stringers, 'cause I am sure they are on some list...No need to worry about the next game, it's just one more incomplete and clearly non-competitive team in the way to a repeat.

I think I'll not drive the 8 hours to come and watch as the game is already decided.

[Seacoaster(1)]

With even odds I would bet significantly on BC to win. BC has routinely faced teams as talented as Loyola. They are battle tested in huge games. Played Cuse 4 times last year, NC 4 times in last 2 years, etc. BC is the best team Loyola has faced and they have the player most difficult to match up with in North. Hard to prepare for North unless you have faced her before especially in a man to man defense. Loyola is also playing away in front of a sold out crowd. Loyola is a very good team and is well coached but at the end of the day the players will decide the outcome. I just love the grit and competitive spirit of BC. I also think if you rank every positional player for both teams - 1-4 on offense, 1-4 on defense and 1-3 on midfield you will find that BC has a clear advantage. I would give Loyola the clear edge is goal keeping but Rachel is at her best in the post season and played well vs Denver. I view the draw as being about even. If both teams play their typical game, IMO BC wins by 5.

I have no rebuttal on most of your points. The only points I would question is your assertion that the starters for BC have a clear advantage ranked as you indicate. Attackers, maybe. Middies, hmmm (Starting BC middies 108 goals, Starting Loyola middies 132 goals). Defensively, I would argue that Loyola has the edge on the top 4 over BC.

So, I agree with you that the potential for an upset is thin....The median player for BC may be better and that is usually the reason that a team beats a team. BC clearly has the best record in big games and the best player in Lax (2021).

Please don't rely on stats to compare players. If they don't play the same exact teams and play the same exact minutes it is largely meaningless. BC in big games will largely play 2 middies - Weeks and Smith. If you think Loyola's 2 middies are better so be it but the only team with 2 better IMO is probably UNC. Smith will likely be a 4x 1st Team All ACC player and Weeks is an absolute workhorse that is not relied on to score very much. They compliment one another perfectly. BC middies in Ivy games and other weak games play well less than 1/2 the game because BC plays 3+ lines in blowouts. Go watch Yale, Dartmouth, BU, Harvard games etc and count the minutes the middies played. You will be shocked. Every BC defender has been AA, honorable mention AA or pre-season AA of some sort - bottom line is they are all recognized as being very good if not great (Taylor, Schleicher, Syd and Roman). I think 3 are All ACC. Granted Scales is hurt but I would not take many defenses over BC. Edge on attack has to go to BC.

OK thanks for the definitive advice on what anyone should use for an argument. Your opinion is based on more factual information than mine. So you win. BC might as well put in the second stringers, 'cause I am sure they are on some list...No need to worry about the next game, it's just one more incomplete and clearly non-competitive team in the way to a repeat.

I think I'll not drive the 8 hours to come and watch as the game is already decided.

Pretty sure the Colts beat the Jets back in the day; I mean Johnny Unitas, Tom Matte, Preston Pearson, Mike Curtis, Bill Curry, Billy Ray Smith, Bubba Smith. C'mon man.