Tecumseh wrote: ↑Fri Mar 29, 2019 3:21 pm
HealthyDebate wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2019 8:53 am
And back to our regurlary scheduled programming...(until Petro hits the market lol).
How are we feeling about this weekend? This is a hungry, determined and confident HC. It will be a tough out no matter what. What Navy team shows?
Longest bus ride of the year facing a coaching staff who knows many of these players .. I think HC is vastly improved and concur with your analysis Healthy . A Navy loss isn't out of the realm of possibility !
I say close game in a pick 'em.
"T"
I agree, "T", could be a very close "pick'em" game indeed.
As for the HC staff familiarity with many of the Navy players from NAPS and Coach Sowell's playbook, the "Coach Lynch Factor" could well be reminiscent of the "Coach Reppert Factor" as has been demonstrated vs. Maryland 2015-2019 in the Terp's favor @ 5-0/1.000, outscoring Navy 57-31 or an avg. of 11.4 to 6.2. While Holy Cross is 2-6/.250 vs. Navy from 2012-2018 with Navy outscoring Holy Cross 81-54 or an avg. of 10.1 to 6.7, Holy Cross won when it mattered most during the 2017 PLT by KO'g Navy in RD 1 by a score of 11-7.
But considering the following as best one can tell from the record books history...
Coach Sowell’s Navy MLax Results vs. “Top 30” and “Bottom 43”…2012-2019 to date (3-27-19)…
(Based on computations from 3-27-19 Massey Ratings website data and USNA MLax website data)
Vs. “Top 30” teams so far in 2019 stands at 0-4/.000
• #5 Maryland w/ SOS avg. @ 7.5 (Maryland W @ 14-9)
• #24 Princeton w/ SOS avg. @ 20.0 (Princeton W @ 19-11)
• #6 Loyola w/ SOS avg. @ 8.0 (Loyola W @ 18-5)
• #20 Lehigh w/SOS avg. @ 30.5 (Lehigh W @ 15-8)
#32 Navy outscored by the above by an average score of 16.5 to 8.2 (or 8.3g/gm) so far in 2019, with #16 Army; #8 Syracuse; #26 Boston remaining from that “Top 30” group.
Coach Sowell’s overall Navy record from 2012-2019 to date vs. “Top 30” teams is now at 20-46/.303,within the overall W-L @ 52-53/.495 record to date.
(Including 0-8/.000 vs. Maryland from 2012-2019)
(Including 1-5/.166 vs. Hopkins from 2012-2017…Hopkins dropped after 2017)
(Including 1-5/.166 vs. Loyola from 2014-2019)
Record alone vs. Maryland + Hopkins + Loyola (aka, “Top 20” teams within “Top 30” from 2012-2019) totals @ 2-18/.100 of the 20-46/.303 overall within vs. “Top 30” teams from 2012-2019 to date.
(Including 4-6/.400 vs. Lehigh from 2012-2019)
The flip side of the above...
Vs. “Bottom 43” teams so far in 2019 stands at 4-0/1.000
• #38 Vermont w/ SOS avg. @ 47.5 (Navy W @ 13-8)
• #57 UMBC w/ SOS avg. @ 39.0 (Navy W @ 11-6)
• #39 Bucknell w/ SOS avg. @ 18.0 (Navy W @ 14-8)
• #61 Lafayette w/ SOS avg. @ 56.5 (Navy W @ 12-7)
#32 Navy outscoring the above by an average score of 12.5 to 7.2 (or 5.3g/gm) so far in 2019, with #43 Holy Cross; #33 Colgate remaining from that “Bottom 43” group.
Coach Sowell’s Navy overall record from 2012–2019 to date vs. “Bottom 43” teams is now at 32-7/.820, within the overall W-L @ 52-53/.495 record to date.
So, it could also end up that with Holy Cross' #43 rank (#43 on Massey...it's #54 on FanLax), Navy may very well result in a W closer to their "12.5 to 7.2" average so far in 2019 vs. "Bottom 43" teams as noted above.
Very happy to see the Mids are making an air travel r/t to Holy Cross even considering the $5MM budget deficit NAAA is running
https://www.capitalgazette.com/opinion/ ... story.html this year. That is a long bus ride indeed and the air travel will help...money well spent and the Mids are well worth it.
Mids 12 - Crusaders 7