Peter Brown wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 12:34 pm
Wheels wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 12:22 pm
wgdsr wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 11:16 am
jrn19 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 11:05 am
Peter Brown wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 9:20 am
I think Maryland will have its hands full with Vermont.
Start at face off. Last spring, Burke didn’t do well against Shockey, but he did do well against Weirman. And when Maryland doesn’t control the ball…
Vermont’s attack is seasoned. They have the smarts to figure out holes on a defense.
Their goalie Cornel might be the best goalie Maryland has seen this year.
A Bernhardt is on their sideline.
Feifs is not only an ex-FO coach, he’s a Maryland grad.
I’d be wary if I were Maryland here.
This is everything that was said last year and Maryland won by like…8?
6. though maryland had gotten it up to 8 late after vermont had closed to 5 early 4th.
mounts aren't challenging with 20+ turnovers and getting out gb'd. it starts there. getting 18 shots on cage won't cut it. they'll have to play fast without turning it over and that's only if they can get the ball.
even with all the ivies, this 2022 is maryland's tournament. the focus is on them to finish this season. odds are they will imo, but it's sports.
2022 Opponent-Adjusted Metrics (per LaxRef)
Offense 43.3% (1st)
Defense 23.1% (2nd)
Face-off 66.6% (1st)
Goaltending 54.1% (15th)
Possessions +10 (1st)
Wierman 65.4% ELO 1673 (4th)
Burke 62.4% ELO 1635 (16th)
2021 Opponent-Adjusted Metrics (per LaxRef)
Offense 40.3% (2nd)
Defense 24.5% (6th)
Face-off 51.9% (27th)
Goaltending: There's an input data error so it's not computing 2021
Possessions +4 (16th)
Wierman 45.2%; ELO 1631 (23rd)
Burke 68.9% ELO 1662 (10th)
I’m certainly not betting my house on Vermont winning.
BUT
But you need to see what Burke did against Weirman when they went head to head. Occasionally, one FO guy just owns another FO guy, even if their season statistics wouldn’t suggest it ahead of time. In this instance, Burke is a big kid; Tygh might be a better choice for Maryland if the first five look bad for Weirman. If Weirman does well on the first five, so be it.
Vermont won’t run and gun. If anything, they’ll look to play nearly the full shot clock each possession; their seniors are smart and will take smart shots.
Jared Bernhardt single-handedly made sure his team wasn’t going to lose last year. That was Shockey’s best game; with all those extra possessions, Maryland should have won by much more.
Like I said, Maryland better be prepared for this matchup with Vermont. It’s no gimme by any stretch.
"But you need to see what Burke did against Weirman when they went head to head." Dude he went 3/4. This is the most amazing case of small sample size theatre I have ever seen. Every single one of your posts has featured this idea that Vermont is going to dominate possession due to their obvious advantage at the FO. It is possible they will, but the evidence isn't exactly conclusive. 4 draws a year ago.
Wierman has flipped against guys who beat him last year in LaSalla and Inacio
Against Inacio last year: 7/20 and 13/27
Against Inacio this year: 10/15 (20/35 overall)
Against LaSalla last year: 14/30
Against LaSalla this year: 13/18 (24/36 overall)
A lot more data in those matchups from last year than in the matchup against Burke. I think Vermont is a very good team and a tough first round matchup for a 1 seed. But you clearly have decided it is going one way in terms of FOs, despite extremely limited evidence. The worst Luke has done this year is 45% against JHU. Do you really think Maryland will do worse than that against UVM (especially with Maryland's superior wing play)? Will 55% be enough for Vermont? Maybe you are right, but I don't think it is absurd for Maryland fans to be confident in their team again UVM.
Also... the FO highlights from that game are available online, since I just HAVE TO SEE WHAT BURKE DID AGAINS WIERMAN. They were literally the last 4 FOs of the game (
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i37x-qgAIgo).
FO 1: Wierman wins it cleanly, pushes it forward, and scores
FO 2: A battle at the X. Ball pops up, ends up out of bounds. Refs determine it came off of Maryland
FO 3: Burke wins cleanly, pushes it forward, and scores
FO 4: Wierman wins the clamp, pops it to a UVM player
Hardly the dominance you described. You might notice this is my first post. I created my account because of how egregiously wrong you were. Congratulations.