2022 D1 Selection Committee

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wgdsr
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by wgdsr »

ICGrad wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:34 pm
i don't get what the quibble is. those teams who won conferences have 2 #s attached to get their own rpi. one of those (opp' opp' record) drops off when they are attached to duke. duke has 6 teams ahead of them in rpi, and 3 of them have 4 (!) losses in a number of fewer games. duke played 17 games.
Every one of those teams has at least 1 win against a top 5 opponent; some have 2 or more. The exception: Rutgers, who have only 3 loses to two really good teams. I have no quibble with 1-6. Duke at 7 is a complete mystery.

We'll have to agree to disagree. You seem to place more faith in RPI as a metric than I do. I think the Duke RPI this year deomonstrates the fatal flaw in the methodology.
[/quote]

it's not a complete mystery. it's a simple formula and it doesn't do things like rate your highest ranked win and rank from there.

i didn't say i placed faith in it you asked for an explanation and i tried to give you one.

we move on.
a fan
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by a fan »



Listening to Carc's comments? He doesn't understand how it works.

He says at 12:18..."isn't the goal to get the best teams in the tournament".

The answer, and I can't believe he doesn't know this....is an emphatic no.

Everyone gets this, right? The goal of the NCAA bid is to reward regular season play. That's it.

If the goal was to get the "best teams" in....in other words, to get teams that the peanut gallery thinks is most likely to win their NCAA tournament games? Simply go back to the old method, and use the USILA poll. Then guys like Carc get to choose who is in, and ignore all or part of what happened on the field.

The good ol' boys method.

Car doesn't seem to want to mention that Notre Dame had three chances to beat a tournament-bound team.

They lost all three. Where he goes from that, to the idea that ND were shoo ins for the Final Four? I have no clue. We don't know how good they are, because they didn't play many top teams. And when they did? They lost.
Last edited by a fan on Mon May 09, 2022 9:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Big Dog
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by Big Dog »

ICGrad wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:34 pm i don't get what the quibble is. those teams who won conferences have 2 #s attached to get their own rpi. one of those (opp' opp' record) drops off when they are attached to duke. duke has 6 teams ahead of them in rpi, and 3 of them have 4 (!) losses in a number of fewer games. duke played 17 games.
Every one of those teams has at least 1 win against a top 5 opponent; some have 2 or more. The exception: Rutgers, who have only 3 loses to two really good teams. I have no quibble with 1-6. Duke at 7 is a complete mystery.

We'll have to agree to disagree. You seem to place more faith in RPI as a metric than I do. I think the Duke RPI this year deomonstrates the fatal flaw in the methodology.
ICC: you might want to dig into the details of Massey's power rankings. Massey ranked Duke at #4 (Strength of Schedule of 6), Notre Dame at #2 (SoS at 2), and Harvard down at #20 with SoS of 16.

https://masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings
Homer
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by Homer »

ICGrad wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:54 pm
Every one of those teams has at least 1 win against a top 5 opponent; some have 2 or more. The exception: Rutgers, who have only 3 loses to two really good teams. I have no quibble with 1-6. Duke at 7 is a complete mystery.
I'm confused why you're confused. RPI is just arithmetic. There's nothing to "quibble" with. "How can they be that high when they don't have a top 5 win" is sort of an unanswerable question, because "do they have a top 5 win" isn't an input to the formula. RPI has literally zero idea who has top 5 wins. If you'd prefer a ranking of who has the most top 5 wins, fine, have at it. Nobody thinks RPI is a good metric. I've never seen anyone in my lifetime leap to the defense of RPI. But the fact that it doesn't measure a thing that it doesn't claim to measure and that I don't know why anyone would care about measuring doesn't strike me as a fatal flaw, IMO.
ICGrad
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by ICGrad »

Big Dog wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:08 pm
ICGrad wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:34 pm i don't get what the quibble is. those teams who won conferences have 2 #s attached to get their own rpi. one of those (opp' opp' record) drops off when they are attached to duke. duke has 6 teams ahead of them in rpi, and 3 of them have 4 (!) losses in a number of fewer games. duke played 17 games.
Every one of those teams has at least 1 win against a top 5 opponent; some have 2 or more. The exception: Rutgers, who have only 3 loses to two really good teams. I have no quibble with 1-6. Duke at 7 is a complete mystery.

We'll have to agree to disagree. You seem to place more faith in RPI as a metric than I do. I think the Duke RPI this year deomonstrates the fatal flaw in the methodology.
ICC: you might want to dig into the details of Massey's power rankings. Massey ranked Duke at #4 (Strength of Schedule of 6), Notre Dame at #2 (SoS at 2), and Harvard down at #20 with SoS of 16.

https://masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings
If I had a computer model that puked those results out, I'd be reworking my computer model.

But as far as I know Massey has 0 bearing on the selection committee, so Massey's model can belch forth whatever they want and no harm, no foul. RPI, committee's protestations notwithstanding, do seem to have some impact on which teams make the tournament, which is more problematic.
ICGrad
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by ICGrad »

Homer wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:58 pm Nobody thinks RPI is a good metric. I've never seen anyone in my lifetime leap to the defense of RPI.
Some people clearly think it's a good and valid metric, given it's significance on selection Sunday and on how frequently it's cited throughout the season. In fact, I would say it's the most widely-cited metric on this and other Lacrosse sites.

Look, if we all just agree it's sh/t and to stop using it, then argument over. I'm in.
jrn19
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by jrn19 »

a fan wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:07 pm

Listening to Carc's comments? He doesn't understand how it works.

He says at 12:18..."isn't the goal to get the best teams in the tournament".

The answer, and I can't believe he doesn't know this....is an emphatic no.

Everyone gets this, right? The goal of the NCAA bid is to reward regular season play. That's it.

If the goal was to get the "best teams" in....in other words, to get teams that the peanut gallery thinks is most likely to win their NCAA tournament games? Simply go back to the old method, and use the USILA poll. Then guys like Carc get to choose who is in, and ignore all or part of what happened on the field.

The good ol' boys method.

Car doesn't seem to want to mention that Notre Dame had three chances to beat a tournament-bound team.

They lost all three. Where he goes from that, to the idea that ND were shoo ins for the Final Four? I have no clue. We don't know how good they are, because they didn't play many top teams. And when they did? They lost.
Hammer meet nail. Nail meet head.
Big Dog
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by Big Dog »

ICGrad wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 10:01 pm
Big Dog wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:08 pm
ICGrad wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:54 pm
wgdsr wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 8:34 pm i don't get what the quibble is. those teams who won conferences have 2 #s attached to get their own rpi. one of those (opp' opp' record) drops off when they are attached to duke. duke has 6 teams ahead of them in rpi, and 3 of them have 4 (!) losses in a number of fewer games. duke played 17 games.
Every one of those teams has at least 1 win against a top 5 opponent; some have 2 or more. The exception: Rutgers, who have only 3 loses to two really good teams. I have no quibble with 1-6. Duke at 7 is a complete mystery.

We'll have to agree to disagree. You seem to place more faith in RPI as a metric than I do. I think the Duke RPI this year deomonstrates the fatal flaw in the methodology.
ICC: you might want to dig into the details of Massey's power rankings. Massey ranked Duke at #4 (Strength of Schedule of 6), Notre Dame at #2 (SoS at 2), and Harvard down at #20 with SoS of 16.

https://masseyratings.com/clax/ncaa-d1/ratings
If I had a computer model that puked those results out, I'd be reworking my computer model.

But as far as I know Massey has 0 bearing on the selection committee, so Massey's model can belch forth whatever they want and no harm, no foul. RPI, committee's protestations notwithstanding, do seem to have some impact on which teams make the tournament, which is more problematic.
My point was not that it was correct or even a good model, but digging thru the methodology might give you a hint on how another modeler also ranked Duke high. Yes, it's unrelated to RPI, which is the point.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

jrn19 wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 10:18 pm
a fan wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:07 pm

Listening to Carc's comments? He doesn't understand how it works.

He says at 12:18..."isn't the goal to get the best teams in the tournament".

The answer, and I can't believe he doesn't know this....is an emphatic no.

Everyone gets this, right? The goal of the NCAA bid is to reward regular season play. That's it.

If the goal was to get the "best teams" in....in other words, to get teams that the peanut gallery thinks is most likely to win their NCAA tournament games? Simply go back to the old method, and use the USILA poll. Then guys like Carc get to choose who is in, and ignore all or part of what happened on the field.

The good ol' boys method.

Car doesn't seem to want to mention that Notre Dame had three chances to beat a tournament-bound team.

They lost all three. Where he goes from that, to the idea that ND were shoo ins for the Final Four? I have no clue. We don't know how good they are, because they didn't play many top teams. And when they did? They lost.
Hammer meet nail. Nail meet head.
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Homer
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by Homer »

ICGrad wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 10:14 pm
Homer wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:58 pm Nobody thinks RPI is a good metric. I've never seen anyone in my lifetime leap to the defense of RPI.
Some people clearly think it's a good and valid metric, given it's significance on selection Sunday and on how frequently it's cited throughout the season. In fact, I would say it's the most widely-cited metric on this and other Lacrosse sites.

Look, if we all just agree it's sh/t and to stop using it, then argument over. I'm in.
When I post around this time of year, I spout RPI left, right, and center like it's the Trevi Fountain. It's an immensely important metric because it's indisputably the way the Committee slots teams for purposes of determining what's a good win and what's a bad loss. How much the Committee actually looks to each team's own RPI in comparing them for selection and seeding purposes is an endlessly debated topic; probably the answer genuinely varies from year to year.

But like I just said, I don't think RPI is a particularly good measure of anything. It just happens to be the metric the Committee's chosen to treat as definitive for a particular purpose. That's the only reason why I and others talk about it at all.

When I say nobody thinks it's a good metric, I mean that nobody who's thought at all about the issue thinks RPI is an informationally robust measure of actual team quality. It's arguably "good" in other ways that are relevant to the NCAA's continued use of it:

It's simple. It's transparent. It involves virtually no judgment about inputs or weighting that could be seen as biased in favor of a particular conference or region. It's been around forever, so people aren't surprised when they tune in and hear this number being thrown around, even if they have no clue what it actually means.

And it's not like RPI's a completely atrocious formula that always gets everything wrong. It's a bit like a science fair project: sort of crude and dumb, not quite how anyone working in the field would choose to set things up, but broadly on the right track. Should the NCAA have done better in the last 30 years? Yes, they should've, but here we are.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

“I wish you would!”
johnnyonthegunpowder
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by johnnyonthegunpowder »

Starman and the Twilight of Data (Self-published 2028)

From Covid to Selection Sunday, Johnnyonthegunpowder's 2028 Readers Digest Bestseller and Redbook Award Winner examines data-worship's curious role in the decline of the human spirit and suggests that common sense may be more multidimensional than we ever gave it credit for.
Typical Lax Dad
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by Typical Lax Dad »

johnnyonthegunpowder wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 12:29 am Starman and the Twilight of Data (Self-published 2028)

From Covid to Selection Sunday, Johnnyonthegunpowder's 2028 Readers Digest Bestseller and Redbook Award Winner examines data-worship's curious role in the decline of the human spirit and suggests that common sense may be more multidimensional than we ever gave it credit for.
Common sense tells me that if you play good teams and lose but play bad teams and win, it doesn’t mean you are a good team.
“I wish you would!”
bearlaxfan
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by bearlaxfan »

Does anyone beside some LaxBroJournos care about this great 'injustice'? Is there even a ND thread on this site? (BTW, sarcasm re:a ND thread.)
faircornell
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by faircornell »

bearlaxfan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:35 am Does anyone beside some LaxBroJournos care about this great 'injustice'? Is there even a ND thread on this site? (BTW, sarcasm re:a ND thread.)
Search "Notre Dame Lacrosse" on Twitter. Many unhappy people. Personally, I think that the Committee did its best. The sad reality is that every game counts.
bearlaxfan
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by bearlaxfan »

faircornell wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:42 am
bearlaxfan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:35 am Does anyone beside some LaxBroJournos care about this great 'injustice'? Is there even a ND thread on this site? (BTW, sarcasm re:a ND thread.)
Search "Notre Dame Lacrosse" on Twitter. Many unhappy people. Personally, I think that the Committee did its best. The sad reality is that every game counts.
I was suspended from twitter for suggesting a national politician suck on a tailpipe for his tweeting blatant disinformation about covid vaccines. He went unsanctioned. I never went back. Best decision ever. BTW I never actually said the car should be running :roll:
faircornell
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by faircornell »

bearlaxfan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:54 am
faircornell wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:42 am
bearlaxfan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:35 am Does anyone beside some LaxBroJournos care about this great 'injustice'? Is there even a ND thread on this site? (BTW, sarcasm re:a ND thread.)
Search "Notre Dame Lacrosse" on Twitter. Many unhappy people. Personally, I think that the Committee did its best. The sad reality is that every game counts.
I was suspended from twitter for suggesting a national politician suck on a tailpipe for his tweeting blatant disinformation about covid vaccines. He went unsanctioned. I never went back. Best decision ever. BTW I never actually said the car should be running :roll:
Well... The general line of commentary is that ND is highly ranked in the media polls, had a six game winning streak, and the whole system needs to be revised.
tech37
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by tech37 »

faircornell wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 7:00 am
bearlaxfan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:54 am
faircornell wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:42 am
bearlaxfan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:35 am Does anyone beside some LaxBroJournos care about this great 'injustice'? Is there even a ND thread on this site? (BTW, sarcasm re:a ND thread.)
Search "Notre Dame Lacrosse" on Twitter. Many unhappy people. Personally, I think that the Committee did its best. The sad reality is that every game counts.
I was suspended from twitter for suggesting a national politician suck on a tailpipe for his tweeting blatant disinformation about covid vaccines. He went unsanctioned. I never went back. Best decision ever. BTW I never actually said the car should be running :roll:
Well... The general line of commentary is that ND is highly ranked in the media polls, had a six game winning streak, and the whole system needs to be revised.
Simple solution...expand the Tourney.

We all want to see parity and the Tournament field should be adjusted/expanded to account for the increase in parity. It's time again...
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b1w7o9y7h
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by b1w7o9y7h »

tech37 wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 7:51 am
faircornell wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 7:00 am
bearlaxfan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:54 am
faircornell wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:42 am
bearlaxfan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 6:35 am Does anyone beside some LaxBroJournos care about this great 'injustice'? Is there even a ND thread on this site? (BTW, sarcasm re:a ND thread.)
Search "Notre Dame Lacrosse" on Twitter. Many unhappy people. Personally, I think that the Committee did its best. The sad reality is that every game counts.
I was suspended from twitter for suggesting a national politician suck on a tailpipe for his tweeting blatant disinformation about covid vaccines. He went unsanctioned. I never went back. Best decision ever. BTW I never actually said the car should be running :roll:
Well... The general line of commentary is that ND is highly ranked in the media polls, had a six game winning streak, and the whole system needs to be revised.
Simple solution...expand the Tourney.

We all want to see parity and the Tournament field should be adjusted/expanded to account for the increase in parity. It's time again...
Two additional play in games, or 24?
CU88
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Re: 2022 D1 Selection Committee

Post by CU88 »

Typical Lax Dad wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 5:52 pm The ACC needs to recruit more Ivy League type athletes.
LOL!
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