Lacrosse Analytics

[lorin]

Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week. What do you think?


lacrossereference_rankings_20220417_NCAAD1Men.jpg

IMO Cornell is way to high, as is UNC and Saint Joseph's. Brown should be near top 10

Did u watch any games this week. seriously putting Cornell at # 3.

[laxreference]

Cornell #3 even after the loss to Army? Surprising...

They definitely fell in the model. Last week, they were in a bunch with Maryland/Georgetown. This week they are in a 2nd tier with Rutgers. At the end of the day, especially in the Elo ratings, they had enough of a cushion built up that a loss to Army just doesn't drop them enough to fall out of that spot.

[laxreference]

Brown too low after wins over Penn and Yale.

They are definitely hot. But at the moment, Brown has just the 17th best Strength-of-Record. As good as their last 2 games have been, the model takes into account the 4 lackluster losses too since it's roughly half based on the full season resume.

[joewillie78]

Are we getting the top individual performers from this past weekend or did I miss it?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

[laxreference]

Are we getting the top individual performers from this past weekend or did I miss it?
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Marc O'Rourke (BRY) finally got loose for Bryant and put up a 10.23 EGA spot against Sacred Heart. He's been the focus of opposing defenses all year, so we haven't seen his name too much. That changed this week.


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Alston Tarry (BUCK) - 8.02 EGA
Justin Coppola (NOVA) - 8.05 EGA
Will Coletti (ARMY) - 7.96 EGA
Brandon Dodd (AFA) - 7.39 EGA
John Piatelli (COR) - 7.06 EGA
Jackson Intrieri (JAV) - 6.67 EGA
Brennan O'Neill (DUKE) - 6.58 EGA
Nicholas Ramsey (YALE) - 7.05 EGA
Jack Kiernan (SIE) - 6.70 EGA

[laxreference]

Live Win Probability Links

- Richmond vs High Point
- St. John's vs Georgetown
- Villanova vs Marquette
- Loyola vs Colgate
- Hampton vs VMI
- Brown vs Cornell
- Navy vs Army
- Stony Brook vs UMBC
- Denver vs Providence
- Binghamton vs Vermont
- LIU vs Hobart
- Mercer vs Jacksonville
- Bryant vs Mount St Marys
- Utah vs Bellarmine
- St. Bonaventure vs Quinnipiac
- Marist vs Canisius
- Merrimack vs Wagner
- Princeton vs Harvard
- Air Force vs Robert Morris
- UMass vs Hofstra
- Siena vs Holy Cross
- Boston U vs Lehigh
- Penn vs Dartmouth
- Towson vs Fairfield
- Sacred Heart vs Saint Joseph's
- Delaware vs Drexel
- Virginia vs Syracuse
- Penn State vs Rutgers
- Maryland vs Johns Hopkins
- Cleveland State vs Detroit

[laxreference]

Here's how the model sees the bubble right now. OSU/ND/BU all have work to do.

Screenshot 2022-04-23 201823.jpg (29.11 KiB) Viewed 1407 times

[MoralTerpitude]

Here's how the model sees the bubble right now. OSU/ND/BU all have work to do.


Screenshot 2022-04-23 201823.jpg

Can you predict what will happen if Notre Dame beats Duke? Would the model put both of them over 50% for an at-large?

I am also curious about how a Rutgers-OSU semifinal result would change the at-large picture.

Believe those are by far the two most impactful games left regarding the at-large picture, though I guess Princeton-Cornell may now be in the mix too.

[CU77]

The loser of Princeton-Cornell will not make the Ivy League Tournament.

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Adam Shea (HOB) took the top spot with a 7.70 EGA performance. After losing Blanchard the Statesmen are still the 16th best adjusted FO unit.


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Petey LaSalla (UVA) - 7.48 EGA
Kevin Winkoff (BING) - 6.82 EGA
Ryan Archer (HOB) - 6.36 EGA
Thomas Colucci (COL) - 6.63 EGA
Luke Keating (NOVA) - 6.04 EGA
Luke Rusterucci (VMI) - 6.02 EGA
Jeff Conner (UVA) - 5.86 EGA
Jack Myers (OSU) - 6.14 EGA
Logan Wisnauskas (MD) - 5.93 EGA

[laxreference]

Updated Bracketology after last night's games. List of teams alive for an at-large

Duke
OSU
Harvard
UNC
Denver
Notre Dame
BU (very slightly)

[lorin]

Updated Bracketology after last night's games. List of teams alive for an at-large

Duke
OSU
Harvard
UNC
Denver
Notre Dame
BU (very slightly)

Waste of time , What a shocker 3 ACC teams still have chance, congrats you learned fast how to keep your boss happy.

[MoralTerpitude]

Updated Bracketology after last night's games. List of teams alive for an at-large

Duke
OSU
Harvard
UNC
Denver
Notre Dame
BU (very slightly)

Waste of time , What a shocker 3 ACC teams still have chance, congrats you learned fast how to keep your boss happy.

That’s not really fair. The three are technically all alive for probably one at-large berth, but will be essentially playing elimination games over the next week. If ND loses to Duke or Syracuse, they’re likely eliminated. If Duke falls to UNC or ND, they’re likely eliminated. And UNC could win against Duke and still not make the bracket. And things could happen in other tournaments (like someone other than Georgetown winning the Big East, or a bottom-three B1G team winning) that could push all three off the bubble entirely.

Not an ACC fan, but rewatching the Terps-ND game, definitely feel it would be a shame if ND missed the tournament. They are a scrappy and well coached team, and are certainly one of the top ten or so in the nation. But they’ll need to prove it tomorrow and Thursday.

[laxreference]

Updated Bracketology after last night's games. List of teams alive for an at-large

Duke
OSU
Harvard
UNC
Denver
Notre Dame
BU (very slightly)

Waste of time , What a shocker 3 ACC teams still have chance, congrats you learned fast how to keep your boss happy.

That’s not really fair. The three are technically all alive for probably one at-large berth, but will be essentially playing elimination games over the next week. If ND loses to Duke or Syracuse, they’re likely eliminated. If Duke falls to UNC or ND, they’re likely eliminated. And UNC could win against Duke and still not make the bracket. And things could happen in other tournaments (like someone other than Georgetown winning the Big East, or a bottom-three B1G team winning) that could push all three off the bubble entirely.

Not an ACC fan, but rewatching the Terps-ND game, definitely feel it would be a shame if ND missed the tournament. They are a scrappy and well coached team, and are certainly one of the top ten or so in the nation. But they’ll need to prove it tomorrow and Thursday.

Your analysis is spot on. These are the teams that earned an at-large in at least one of the simulation runs; hence they are technically alive. You are right to point out that the chances are better for some than others. Denver/UNC/Harvard/BU/ND are in must-win situations. OSU/Duke are the ones that can survive a potential loss.

[laxreference]

Live Win Probability Links

- Cornell vs Princeton
- VMI vs Richmond
- High Point vs Mercer
- Vermont vs Stony Brook
- Penn vs Albany
- Robert Morris vs Cleveland State
- Hofstra vs Towson
- Wagner vs Bryant
- Canisius vs St. Bonaventure
- Quinnipiac vs Siena
- Providence vs St. John's
- Michigan vs Ohio State
- Dartmouth vs Brown
- Delaware vs Fairfield
- Saint Joseph's vs Merrimack
- Penn State vs Johns Hopkins
- Monmouth vs Marist
- Harvard vs Yale
- Bellarmine vs Air Force
- Mount St Marys vs Hobart
- Detroit vs Utah
- LIU vs Sacred Heart
- UMass-Lowell vs Binghamton

[laxreference]

Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week...

lacrossereference_rankings_20220501_NCAAD1Men.jpg (112.57 KiB) Viewed 967 times

[MDlaxfan76]

Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week...




lacrossereference_rankings_20220501_NCAAD1Men.jpg

Did you simply forget Harvard?

[lorin]

Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week...




lacrossereference_rankings_20220501_NCAAD1Men.jpg

Did you simply forget Harvard?

was thinking same thing

[Can Opener]

Here's what I submitted for my Top-20 this week...




lacrossereference_rankings_20220501_NCAAD1Men.jpg

Brown has beaten Yale, Cornell and Penn, yet you rank all three ahead of the Bears.

[laxreference]

As always, here is the top individual EGA performances of the past week. The full post is here, but here are the highlights...

Matt Brandau (YALE) put up a gaudy 8.61 EGA against Quinnipiac. His performance against Harvard may have been more impactful, but the combination of production/efficiency against the Bobcats took the top spot.


Here is how the rest of the top 10 shook out:

Jacob Buck (CAN) - 7.39 EGA
Pat Kavanagh (ND) - 7.28 EGA
Quinn McConnaughey (PC) - 7.36 EGA
Nicholas Ramsey (YALE) - 7.05 EGA
Richie LaCalandra (LIU) - 6.67 EGA
Sam English (PRIN) - 5.93 EGA
Matt Grillo (PC) - 5.83 EGA
Michael Long (COR) - 5.62 EGA
Jake Naso (DUKE) - 6.05 EGA