Potential New Top 20

[middleAgedBear]

Maybe I'm repeating what has already been said, but look at 2019 UVA. 7 1-goal wins, 5 of them in OT. Then won natty. So, they were lucky? I mean, two of those 1-goal OT wins came in the quarters and semis.

[rolldodge]

but there is no way that Penn should be seeded higher than UVA. UVA would beat them by at least 4 or 5 goals. Handley and Gergar would be held in check by Kastner, and Saustad (no other Quaker has more than 18 goals) and the Moore, Shellenberger, Cormier line would shred UVA's former backup goalie. As my Finance Professor used to admonish us, the "numbers are like expensive French perfume, they are to be sniffed but never swallowed!"

You might be entirely correct (quite debatable). But you can't seed teams based entirely on hypotheticals. RPI may not be the best way to collate it but the data is what the data is and that is what we have. Richmond may have beaten UVA regardless of the injuries ... maybe they only win by 1 or a couple. Maybe they win by more. Every team has dealt with injuries and other setbacks. Georgetown's top attackman had a burst appendix right before the season started and lost 25 pounds and is still working his way back. Their AA goalie broke his hand and missed three games mid-season. There's no way to incorporate that information in any logical and fair manner, except whether or not they won their games. UVA has had their chances to prove they deserve a higher seed. They just haven't done it for whatever reason. Luckily for the team and their fans, they will have a chance to prove they are better in the tournament. A number of other teams won't have the luxury.

[Can Opener]

I’m a big Virginia fan and and was screaming loudly for them at last year’s championship game, but the Hoos are 0-2 in their last two games against the Ivies and neither one of those was against Yale. It’s easy to get caught up in the idea that the lacrosse sun rises and sets on the ACC, but that just hasn’t been true for several years thanks to the emergence of the Ancient Eight. Er, Ancient Seven.
https://www.insidelacrosse.com/team/uva/2020

[HooDat]

As my Finance Professor used to admonish us, the "numbers are like expensive French perfume, they are to be sniffed but never swallowed!"

OK - I am stealing this!

and of course those 1-goal wins are not a weakness, they are a strength. It takes a lot of grit to win those games. Especially over and over again. The more you do it, the more you believe you can do it, and therefore the more you do it - esp come championship weeked.


btw - my tirade about Ivy league performance has nothing to do with this year's teams. I was putting forward a potential explanation for people's skepticism.

I am becoming more and more convinced all this talk is for nothing, and that our time would be better spent talking about where the Terps are going to display their trophy...

[GSP]

I’m a big Virginia fan and and was screaming loudly for them at last year’s championship game, but the Hoos are 0-2 in their last two games against the Ivies and neither one of those was against Yale. It’s easy to get caught up in the idea that the lacrosse sun rises and sets on the ACC, but that just hasn’t been true for several years thanks to the emergence of the Ancient Eight. Er, Ancient Seven.
https://www.insidelacrosse.com/team/uva/2020

That was 2 years ago but Yes to the Princeton/Sowers ass-kicking but the Brown loss after Lars got up 8-2 and started clearing the bench WAY, WAY too early. Brown ran off 8 goals in the 3rd quarter. I think UVA played about 30 players in that one but lost 14-13. That one was all Lars ego-tripping for his former team. But again 2 years ago. before that they ran off 5 straight wins. But I get your point.

[RopeUnit]

I think when Brown took 2019 national champion Virginia to OT in Charlottesville Lars wasn't wearing his lucky undies AND forgot the wooden stick at home. No other explanation for why the game was close.

[Can Opener]

part of the problem here is that year in and year out the Ivy league is massively over-rated. Even in a good year they have historically under-performed relative to expectations, with the lone exception of Yale in 2018. Don't get me started on Cornell 2009.

Since Tierney's last title at Princeton (2001), the Ivy League has put a total of 4 teams into the finals (Yale twice, Cornell once and Princeton once). They are 1-3 in those finals.

Over that same time period the ACC has put FIFTEEN teams into the finals. And they won NINE championships. The ACC was represented by BOTH teams in two of the finals. Only six of the finals over those 20 years did NOT include a team from the ACC.

To put that in perspective, the ACC has put at least one team in 70% of the NCAA finals since 2002 (vs 20% for the Ivy League). Over that same time period, they have won 45% of the them (vs 5% for the Ivy's).

Sorry but the level to which the ACC dominates college lacrosse compares to the SEC's dominance of college football (11-7 over the same time period). If you are going to keep the analogy going, the Ivy league is to lacrosse what the PAC10 is to college football....

(... is there a stirring the pot emoji?)

Sorry to be blunt, but saying that “year in and year out the Ivy league is massively over-rated” is a really dumb take. If your post were a perfume, we would get more of a buzz from sipping it than sniffing it. The numbers you cite bear no correlation to being overrated or underperforming. You are using the metric of appearances in the championship game that says nothing about how teams performed against expectations. Here are what the numbers show from 2015 to present for Ivies ranking high in the preseason media poll. The numbers show their preseason rankings vs. final/current rankings:

2015 Cornell #8/#13
2015 Brown RV/#12
2016 Yale #9/#10
2016 Brown #10/#3
2017 Yale #7/#11
2017 Brown #8/RV
2018 Yale #5/#1
2019 Yale #1/#2
2019 Cornell #5//#14
2020 Yale #3/#5
2020 Penn #6/#17
2020 Cornell #11/#2
2020 Princeton RV/#3
2022 Yale #7/#9
2022 Penn #11/#13
2022 Brown RV/#5
2022 Princeton RV/#7

If you can explain how these numbers represent massive overrating, I will buy you a year’s supply of Axe Body Spray.

BTW, from 2013 to present Virginia is 9-8 against the Ivies (.529) and 91-44 (.674) against all other competition. Lars is 6-4 against the Ivies and one of those wins was over Dartmouth.

Other than that, go Hoos!!!

[10stone5]

That NCAA Top Ten,

whatever exactly that was supposed to be,

no way Jax are in there any more, not with the past few
days, the Ivy teams playing each other.

If the NCAA does decide on releasing another “Top Ten”
it is going to be Ivy League dominated.

[rolldodge]

That NCAA Top Ten,

whatever exactly that was supposed to be,

no way Jax are in there any more, not with the past few
days, the Ivy teams playing each other.

If the NCAA does decide on releasing another “Top Ten”
it is going to be Ivy League dominated.

Jacksonville wasn’t in the top 10 based on numbers.(they were 23 RPI) They chose to put them there. No reason for them not to do that again.

[10stone5]

Ah,
makes sense now.

[10stone5]

Locks as of today,

1 Georgetown Big East 13 1 100
2 Maryland B1G 12 0 100
3 Penn Ivy 7 4 100
4 Princeton Ivy 9 3 100
5 Rutgers B1G 12 2 100
6 Yale Ivy 9 3 100
7 Cornell Ivy 10 3 99
8 Virginia ACC 11 3 98

[joewillie78]

My new TOP 25:

1. Maryland
2. Georgetown
3. Brown
4. Cornell
5. Rutgers
6. Yale
7. Princeton
8. Virginia
9. Penn
10. Notre Dame
11. Ohio State
12. Duke
13. Jacksonville
14. Harvard
15. Richmond
16. St. Joseph's
17. Denver
18. Army
19. Villanova
20. North Carolina
21. Boston University
22. Utah
23. Navy
24. Loyola
25. Vermont

GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

[faircornell]

My new TOP 25:

1. Maryland
2. Georgetown
3. Brown
4. Cornell
5. Rutgers
6. Yale
7. Princeton
8. Virginia
9. Penn
10. Notre Dame
11. Ohio State
12. Duke
13. Jacksonville
14. Harvard
15. Richmond
16. St. Joseph's
17. Denver
18. Army
19. Villanova
20. North Carolina
21. Boston University
22. Utah
23. Navy
24. Loyola
25. Vermont

GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

I don't comment very often on this thread, because I don't do this work, so I can't criticize. Plus or minus 2 for a few teams, this is a great analysis.

[wgdsr]

looks like if:
tosu loses and the domers win, it's uva, nd and duke in some order for rpi at 9, 10 and 11, the presumptive cutline. depending on maybe brown and when they lose (if they lose), they're mixed in.

ohio state can upset that calculus with a win.