So I had been thinking that Duke-Notre Dame is an elimination game, and the winner would get into the NCAA tournament with the additional quality win. But that may not be the case. Per LaxNumbers, which uses RPI, SOS, and QWF to calculate odds of making the tourney, ND’s chances are currently 41%, and Duke’s are 25%. So both have work to do to solidify their spots.10stone5 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:49 pmIts looking more and more as if one of those ACCs will berandom observer wrote: ↑Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:42 pm Based on the way things stand right now, if the Ivy only gets 4 slots I'd go so far as to say the NCAA tournament is an objectively rigged game. Everyone loved the RPI all those years that it favored the blue bloods; the media all nodded in agreement when it said the ACC was untouchable and when it said Hopkins belonged over a Rutgers team that beat them twice. But now that the Ivy League is dominating in the non-conference, all of a sudden the RPI is flawed even though it's backing up the results on the field. I just had a look at the resumes, and there are 5 Ivy League teams with inarguably superior resumes to ND and Duke, and a sixth (Harvard) who still compares favorably even though it is closer.
That's not to say Duke or ND couldn't make a deep run in May given the chance, but the results on the field should never come second to subjective judgments on potential and the eye test. Duke has more bad losses than wins of any merit, and they only have one win over a team that will make the tournament. ND has no bad losses but also has only one good win.
left out - Duke or ND,
so you can bet there will be months of crying and moaning
over RPI.
Interestingly, an ACC tournament of sorts is shaping up on May 1st and May 7th. Cuse-ND and Duke-Carolina on the 1st, then ND-Duke at Arlotta on the 7th. If ND or Duke lose on the 1st, they are almost surely eliminated. Cuse is a bad loss at this point, and UNC would be close due to their RPI. If ND and Duke both win, they each still have a shot at the tournament by winning on the 7th.
If Cuse beats ND, the whole scenario could blow up. ND’s RPI takes a hit, which probably can’t get healthy enough with a win over Duke. On the flip side, a win over ND at that point might not help Duke’s RPI as much as it needs to. So the ACC could be left with one entry.