Bracketology - Always a sign The Tournament is near

[crazyhorse]

Here goes for this week, starting with the 8 seeded teams who will be hosting 1st 2 rounds:

1. UNC - as clear cut as it gets. 5 significant wins (defined by wins over teams with RPI of 20 or better)
2. Northwestern - RPI 0f 3, SOS of 2, 5 sig wins
3. Syracuse - RPI 2, SOS 3, 5 sig wins
4. BC - RPI 4, SOS 7, 3 sig wins

"x factor" in this is NCAA does consider eligibility/availability of players among their top 3 criteria (along with winning pct and SOS) so Cuse could get dinged if they don't finish the season strong and injured player(s) are not available. Looking at the numbers, seems clear that NW and Cuse are a half-step better than BC.

5. Maryland - easy choice. RPI 0f 5, SOS 14, big plus is 4 sig wins

Then drop down a tier, where I think these 3 are more random as to who is 6,7,8:

6. Stony Brook - RPI 6, SOS 25, 2 sig wins over Florida & Princeton
7. Loyola - RPI 13, SOS 26, same 2 sig wins over Florida & Princeton, therefore lose 'tiebreak' to SB due to lower RPI
8. Denver - RPI is 7, SOS 28, 2 sig wins over Michigan & UConn not as impressive to me

Others considered:
Florida - good metrics, only win of note is Cuse
JMU - good metrics, 3 sig wins, but loss to VT hurts
Duke - lone sig win is a great one, SOS hurts
Rutgers - loss to ASU hurt - prob would have been seeded ex that loss
Princeton - decent metrics, wins over Temple and USC not as impressive

Bracket (remember there will be shifts for geographical convenience. NCAA doesn't make enough $$ from March Madness so they need to limit flights for minor sports )

1. UNC - bye
Michigan vs Arizona St

2. Northwestern - bye
Ohio State vs USC

3. Syracuse - bye
UConn vs Yale

4. BC vs Bryant
Princeton vs UMass

5. Maryland vs Robt Morris
James Madison vs Temple

6. Stony Brook vs Albany
Rutgers vs Jacksonville

7. Loyola vs Towson
Duke vs Richmond

8. Denver vs Niagara
Florida vs Mercer

last 2 in: Temple, Richmond
first 2 out: Stanford, VA Tech

[Lax247]

Here goes for this week, starting with the 8 seeded teams who will be hosting 1st 2 rounds:

1. UNC - as clear cut as it gets. 5 significant wins (defined by wins over teams with RPI of 20 or better)
2. Northwestern - RPI 0f 3, SOS of 2, 5 sig wins
3. Syracuse - RPI 2, SOS 3, 5 sig wins
4. BC - RPI 4, SOS 7, 3 sig wins

"x factor" in this is NCAA does consider eligibility/availability of players among their top 3 criteria (along with winning pct and SOS) so Cuse could get dinged if they don't finish the season strong and injured player(s) are not available. Looking at the numbers, seems clear that NW and Cuse are a half-step better than BC.

5. Maryland - easy choice. RPI 0f 5, SOS 14, big plus is 4 sig wins

Then drop down a tier, where I think these 3 are more random as to who is 6,7,8:

6. Stony Brook - RPI 6, SOS 25, 2 sig wins over Florida & Princeton
7. Loyola - RPI 13, SOS 26, same 2 sig wins over Florida & Princeton, therefore lose 'tiebreak' to SB due to lower RPI
8. Denver - RPI is 7, SOS 28, 2 sig wins over Michigan & UConn not as impressive to me

Others considered:
Florida - good metrics, only win of note is Cuse
JMU - good metrics, 3 sig wins, but loss to VT hurts
Duke - lone sig win is a great one, SOS hurts
Rutgers - loss to ASU hurt - prob would have been seeded ex that loss
Princeton - decent metrics, wins over Temple and USC not as impressive

Bracket (remember there will be shifts for geographical convenience. NCAA doesn't make enough $$ from March Madness so they need to limit flights for minor sports )

1. UNC - bye
Michigan vs Arizona St

2. Northwestern - bye
Ohio State vs USC

3. Syracuse - bye
UConn vs Yale

4. BC vs Bryant
Princeton vs UMass

5. Maryland vs Robt Morris
James Madison vs Temple

6. Stony Brook vs Albany
Rutgers vs Jacksonville

7. Loyola vs Towson
Duke vs Richmond

8. Denver vs Niagara
Florida vs Mercer

last 2 in: Temple, Richmond
first 2 out: Stanford, VA Tech

Why does a first seed get a tougher 2nd round then Maryland or SB? Shouldn't the top team get the easiest path? I didnt understand that last year. UNC playing tough teams and BC getting easy teams....how is this fair?

[crazyhorse]

fair question. I would argue that UNC's 2nd round opponent (Michigan) is not better than Maryland's (JMU), Stony Brook's (Rutgers) or BC's (Princeton)

In my mind, JMU, Rutgers, and Princeton were all in the mix for seeds. Michigan has an RPI of 20, a really good SOS of 9, but no significant wins.

[Lax247]

fair question. I would argue that UNC's 2nd round opponent (Michigan) is not better than Maryland's (JMU), Stony Brook's (Rutgers) or BC's (Princeton)

In my mind, JMU, Rutgers, and Princeton were all in the mix for seeds. Michigan has an RPI of 20, a really good SOS of 9, but no significant wins.

You think Michigan would beat AS?

[JoeMauer89]

fair question. I would argue that UNC's 2nd round opponent (Michigan) is not better than Maryland's (JMU), Stony Brook's (Rutgers) or BC's (Princeton)

In my mind, JMU, Rutgers, and Princeton were all in the mix for seeds. Michigan has an RPI of 20, a really good SOS of 9, but no significant wins.

You think Michigan would beat AS?

Not the way ASU is playing right now, no. Michigan has seemed to stumble the longer the season progresses, ASU the exact opposite.

Joe

[crazyhorse]

Were it to happen, that game would be a toss-up. Designed that way - though only 8 teams are officially seeded, think of that matchup as being the 16 vs 17 seed game. I don't think ASU is a tougher match than the other 3 mentioned, either. RPI is only 27 though they do have sig win vs Rutgers.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

fair question. I would argue that UNC's 2nd round opponent (Michigan) is not better than Maryland's (JMU), Stony Brook's (Rutgers) or BC's (Princeton)

In my mind, JMU, Rutgers, and Princeton were all in the mix for seeds. Michigan has an RPI of 20, a really good SOS of 9, but no significant wins.

You think Michigan would beat AS?

Not the way ASU is playing right now, no. Michigan has seemed to stumble the longer the season progresses, ASU the exact opposite.

Joe

Agreed. Arizona State’s coming on like gangbusters.

[@inthe8m]

Were it to happen, that game would be a toss-up. Designed that way - though only 8 teams are officially seeded, think of that matchup as being the 16 vs 17 seed game. I don't think ASU is a tougher match than the other 3 mentioned, either. RPI is only 27 though they do have sig win vs Rutgers.

I appreciate that you are trying to channel the committee's thought process - for better or worse. I think the usalaxmag guy is way too logical with his bracketology.

I do not get the love for ASU. I know they beat Rutgers by 1 earlier this month, but they were easily handled by NW, UF, and SB. I do not put a lot of weight into the circular wins/losses against USC, Stanford, or Colorado and am more concerned that ASU needed OT to beat a really, really bad Oregon team last week.

Also, not sure ASU gets in over Stanford. Stanford split with ASU and went 2-0 against USC. Hoping that the P12 tourney clears some of this up. If it ends up being USC and Stanford in the championship game, I think USC and Stanford are in and ASU is on the outs.

Based on past history, one of those P12 teams will end up in Denver if Denver ends up hosting.

[Lax101]

Is it just me or is it silly to speculate brackets this early with conference tournaments yet to be played. It's likely that every one of your seeds is wrong except UNC. So at this point - who cares.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Is it just me or is it silly to speculate brackets this early with conference tournaments yet to be played. It's likely that every one of your seeds is wrong except UNC. So at this point - who cares.

I like Bracketology. Whets my appetite for The Tournament.

[Lax247]

Is it just me or is it silly to speculate brackets this early with conference tournaments yet to be played. It's likely that every one of your seeds is wrong except UNC. So at this point - who cares.

Yeah you are probably right...

[@inthe8m]

Is it just me or is it silly to speculate brackets this early with conference tournaments yet to be played. It's likely that every one of your seeds is wrong except UNC. So at this point - who cares.

I imagine that most people in the world find it silly that adults post on message boards to talk about college athletics. Yet, here we are.

[tothedraw]

Is it just me or is it silly to speculate brackets this early with conference tournaments yet to be played. It's likely that every one of your seeds is wrong except UNC. So at this point - who cares.

I imagine that most people in the world find it silly that adults post on message boards to talk about college athletics. Yet, here we are.

With several of us not having any "skin in the game".

[crazyhorse]

Were it to happen, that game would be a toss-up. Designed that way - though only 8 teams are officially seeded, think of that matchup as being the 16 vs 17 seed game. I don't think ASU is a tougher match than the other 3 mentioned, either. RPI is only 27 though they do have sig win vs Rutgers.

I appreciate that you are trying to channel the committee's thought process - for better or worse. I think the usalaxmag guy is way too logical with his bracketology.

I do not get the love for ASU. I know they beat Rutgers by 1 earlier this month, but they were easily handled by NW, UF, and SB. I do not put a lot of weight into the circular wins/losses against USC, Stanford, or Colorado and am more concerned that ASU needed OT to beat a really, really bad Oregon team last week.

Also, not sure ASU gets in over Stanford. Stanford split with ASU and went 2-0 against USC. Hoping that the P12 tourney clears some of this up. If it ends up being USC and Stanford in the championship game, I think USC and Stanford are in and ASU is on the outs.

Based on past history, one of those P12 teams will end up in Denver if Denver ends up hosting.

Great food for thought on Stanford. I did have them as first team out in favor of Richmond as last team in based on head-to-head result. I do think you might be onto something with 2 finalists moving on, since its unlikely Pac-12 is strong enough to get 3 teams in.

Agree on having a Pac-12 in Denver - will fix that if I do another iteration.

[crazyhorse]

The other thing that I found interesting is that a team like Stanford might be comfortably in if not for Stony Brook and James Madison planning to switch conferences. Since they have both been deemed ineligible for their conference AQs, it's as if Albany and Towson (or whoever else wins their respective conference tourneys) are "bid stealers". As a result, the bubble is a light tighter this year since SB and JMU are virtually guaranteed to take up 2 at-large spots.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Bracketology: Winners, Losers and Difficult Decisions That Loom

(Not everything copied over. The link has the entire article with all the lists intact.)

https://www.usalaxmagazine.com/college/ ... -that-loom

Tue Apr 19 2022 | Jeremy Fallis | College

We have entered the time of year where massive jumps and dips in RPI and strength of schedule ratings are less common, so when they do appear they make an impression. For this iteration of bracketology, we break down the biggest winners and losers from last week’s results.
WINNERS

Duke: The biggest story from the weekend. Until Saturday, the Blue Devils fed off a weak non-conference schedule and a weaker-than-normal ACC slate. To put it succinctly, a team with top-10 talent had little to show for it on paper. That’s not the case anymore. Usually, a single victory might push you ahead of one or two teams on the S-curve, but Duke over Boston College has ramifications for a half-dozen teams. The Blue Devils occupy the No. 8 seed in this week’s projections thanks to the signature win and improved RPI.

Maryland: The Terrapins have been lurking all year. Now the meat of their schedule has arrived for high-quality wins and they’re taking advantage of it. A mid-week victory over Princeton was the appetizer and dominating Ohio State in the second half on the weekend was the main course. The Terps are 4-1 against RPI top-20 opponents and move ahead of Stony Brook in our latest projections to No. 5. It’s arguable that they should be ahead of Syracuse, but the Orange do own a No. 2 rank in the RPI and the third-toughest strength of schedule.

Arizona State: The Sun Devils burst into our projections last week and continued their momentum. ASU avoided disaster at Oregon by pulling out an 11-10 overtime win where a loss might have sunk the Devils’ at-large chances. They doubled down by doubling up Colorado on the road just 41 hours later to bolster their profile. Arizona State has won five straight
LOSERS

Colorado: Let’s pickup from the last paragraph. The Buffaloes have dropped three of four and in each instance by large margins. With the losses, Colorado’s RPI plummeted to 35, which would be the highest to ever receive an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament history. Friday should provide a get-well game against Oregon before next week’s massive in-state rivalry game at Denver.

Virginia: The Cavaliers weren’t favored against No. 1 North Carolina, but the loss dropped them to 7-8 and on the precipice of tournament ineligibility. Simply, Virginia must win its commonwealth clash at Virginia Tech on Thursday to maintain any hope of at-large selection. A win over the Hokies would be two-fold — get UVA to .500 and possibly claim a spot from its rival, which has a weaker profile. Even then, the Cavs will have to win their first ACC tournament game to remain eligible.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions will rue their missed opportunity against Michigan where a win would have kept them tournament-eligible and put their resume ahead of the Wolverines. Instead, an 8-7 overtime loss has Penn State in the same boat as Virginia and Notre Dame — likely talented enough for an NCAA berth, but without the record to qualify. At 6-7 and with an RPI of 22, not all hope is lost. Saturday’s game at Rutgers is a must-win, as is the following Thursday’s contest against Johns Hopkins.

Records against the top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (41st or higher) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 18), not human polls.

Results from Monday and Tuesday games are not included.

First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI.

For the 2022 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.


North Carolina is a rivalry win away from a perfect ACC regular season … Northwestern puts its nine-game winning streak on the line against fellow unbeaten Big Ten foe Maryland this weekend. ... Denver can lock up the top seed in the Big East tournament with a win over Villanova this week.

Princeton missed out on its opportunity to claim a national seed by falling to Maryland last week. ... Florida is likely on the outside of being a seed unless some teams ahead of the Gators should fall. Temple is up next in American play. ... Loyola thumped Army and American last week in preparation for Bucknell and Lafayette this week.

Jacksonville has a tough road game at Liberty on Saturday. The Flames have already beaten Virginia Tech on the road and took Duke to the wire in March. ... USC gets the Pac-12 nod this week by virtue of its superior RPI (18) as compared to fellow first-place teams Stanford (26) and Arizona State (27). ... UMass downed St. Joe’s by six to claim at least a share of the A-10 regular season title with a road game at Davidson remaining.

Towson continued its positive run with another one-goal win, this time at Hofstra. The Tigers are idle this week. ... Albany remains the America East’s only eligible unbeaten (in conference) team. ... Mercer has a tough two-game road trip to Winthrop and High Point this week.

Niagara’s OT win against Fairfield allows the Purple Eagles to hold on to the MAAC’s bid for now. ... Bryant will be favored in its final three conference games as it tries to get the top seed in its final NEC season. ... Robert Morris can clinch the MAC regular season title with a win over Central Michigan on Saturday.


Georgetown (41)

Syracuse holds on to the No. 4 seed for now, but Maryland could overtake the Orange after this weekend. ... Boston College has the No. 2 seed for now. (Sensing a theme?) The loss to Duke coupled with a potential Northwestern victory over Maryland could see the Eagles drop. ... Maryland was one of our featured winners last week. ...

Stony Brook saw its position fall one place after Maryland’s strong week. ... James Madison now has an eight-game winning streak with two to play. ... Rutgers hosts Penn State this week as the Scarlet Knights’ slim hosting chances continue to flicker. ...

Duke can lock down its claim to a seed with an upset over UNC. The Devils may earn that seed even with a loss. ... UConn’s RPI (14th) and SOS (56th) have dropped a little bit. The Huskies have beaten only one bona fide NCAA tournament team this season (UMass). ... Temple needs a win over Florida more than anyone else on the bubble. The Owls have a nice RPI (No. 15), but not a win against a team in the current field. ...

Ohio State has solid victories over Michigan and Penn State and for a half seemed to have a chance to steal one from Maryland. Hopkins and Rutgers remain as potential profile builders. ... Yale is our third team out this week but has three prime opportunities to nab important victories beginning with Wednesday’s home game against UConn. ... Michigan passed its first test by beating Penn State. The Wolverines are off this week. ...

Johns Hopkins has a high RPI (21), but no wins over a tournament-caliber squad. Yet. The Blue Jays could get one over Ohio State on Saturday. ... Stanford split in its road series at ASU and USC to bring its record to 8-2 in its last 10 games. ... Arizona State could all but button up its first NCAA bid by beating USC on Friday at home. ...

Richmond remains our first team out of the field this week. The Spiders have the Stanford victory to their name, but a close call to JMU and a decisive loss to UMass keep them out. ... Vanderbilt fought hard against Florida but will likely have to turn its attention to the American tournament for its path to the NCAA tournament. ... Virginia Tech is listed as our second-to-last- team in this week’s field on the strength of wins over JMU and Notre Dame. The loss to Liberty is its major blemish and the Hokies need to get by Virginia next. ...

Colorado will give the committee fits if it remains 35th in the RPI as it does today. It’s tough to ignore that large of a number while the Buffaloes have wins over Ohio State and Stanford. ... Saint Joseph’s couldn’t muster the upset in Amherst and will have to go through the A-10 tournament. ... Cornell has dropped three of four but wins over Albany and Penn aren’t bad consolation prizes. ...

Georgetown’s RPI has risen to 41 this week despite the close loss to Denver. The Hoyas' candidacy could be interesting should they beat Marquette this week and find a way against UConn after that. ... Navy is playing well against Patriot League competition (6-0) and will likely need to win its final three conference contests to overcome its poor RPI (43) and sniff an at-large bid
PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

The committee seeds the top eight teams to host first- and second-round games. The top three seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed with geographical considerations (e.g., teams will drive vs. fly), while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

USC vs. Virginia Tech
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Durham, N.C.

Towson (CAA) at (8) Duke
James Madison vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Niagara (MAAC) at (4) Syracuse
Princeton (IVY) vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)

College Park, Md.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (5) Maryland
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Ohio State

Newton, Mass.

Arizona State vs. UConn
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

Denver

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (7) Denver (BIG EAST)
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. Colorado

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Bryant (NEC) at (6) Stony Brook
Rutgers vs. UMass (A-10)

Evanston, Ill.

Stanford vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Last Four In: UConn, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Colorado
First Four Out: Richmond, Temple, Yale, Johns Hopkins
Next Four Out: Vanderbilt, Saint Joseph’s, Navy, Cornell

Moving In: Virginia Tech
Moving Out: Virginia

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (4), America East (2), Big East (2), CAA (2)
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[Laxfan500]

Bracketology: Winners, Losers and Difficult Decisions That Loom

(Not everything copied over. The link has the entire article with all the lists intact.)

https://www.usalaxmagazine.com/college/ ... -that-loom

Tue Apr 19 2022 | Jeremy Fallis | College

We have entered the time of year where massive jumps and dips in RPI and strength of schedule ratings are less common, so when they do appear they make an impression. For this iteration of bracketology, we break down the biggest winners and losers from last week’s results.
WINNERS

Duke: The biggest story from the weekend. Until Saturday, the Blue Devils fed off a weak non-conference schedule and a weaker-than-normal ACC slate. To put it succinctly, a team with top-10 talent had little to show for it on paper. That’s not the case anymore. Usually, a single victory might push you ahead of one or two teams on the S-curve, but Duke over Boston College has ramifications for a half-dozen teams. The Blue Devils occupy the No. 8 seed in this week’s projections thanks to the signature win and improved RPI.

Maryland: The Terrapins have been lurking all year. Now the meat of their schedule has arrived for high-quality wins and they’re taking advantage of it. A mid-week victory over Princeton was the appetizer and dominating Ohio State in the second half on the weekend was the main course. The Terps are 4-1 against RPI top-20 opponents and move ahead of Stony Brook in our latest projections to No. 5. It’s arguable that they should be ahead of Syracuse, but the Orange do own a No. 2 rank in the RPI and the third-toughest strength of schedule.

Arizona State: The Sun Devils burst into our projections last week and continued their momentum. ASU avoided disaster at Oregon by pulling out an 11-10 overtime win where a loss might have sunk the Devils’ at-large chances. They doubled down by doubling up Colorado on the road just 41 hours later to bolster their profile. Arizona State has won five straight
LOSERS

Colorado: Let’s pickup from the last paragraph. The Buffaloes have dropped three of four and in each instance by large margins. With the losses, Colorado’s RPI plummeted to 35, which would be the highest to ever receive an at-large bid in the NCAA tournament history. Friday should provide a get-well game against Oregon before next week’s massive in-state rivalry game at Denver.

Virginia: The Cavaliers weren’t favored against No. 1 North Carolina, but the loss dropped them to 7-8 and on the precipice of tournament ineligibility. Simply, Virginia must win its commonwealth clash at Virginia Tech on Thursday to maintain any hope of at-large selection. A win over the Hokies would be two-fold — get UVA to .500 and possibly claim a spot from its rival, which has a weaker profile. Even then, the Cavs will have to win their first ACC tournament game to remain eligible.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions will rue their missed opportunity against Michigan where a win would have kept them tournament-eligible and put their resume ahead of the Wolverines. Instead, an 8-7 overtime loss has Penn State in the same boat as Virginia and Notre Dame — likely talented enough for an NCAA berth, but without the record to qualify. At 6-7 and with an RPI of 22, not all hope is lost. Saturday’s game at Rutgers is a must-win, as is the following Thursday’s contest against Johns Hopkins.

Records against the top 20, top 21-40, significant wins and significant losses (41st or higher) are based on performance against the current RPI rankings (as of Monday, April 18), not human polls.

Results from Monday and Tuesday games are not included.

First-place teams are listed as automatic qualifiers. In the event of a tie, the AQ goes to the highest-rated team in the RPI.

For the 2022 season, 15 automatic qualifiers will be granted. No play-in games will take place in the 29-team field.


North Carolina is a rivalry win away from a perfect ACC regular season … Northwestern puts its nine-game winning streak on the line against fellow unbeaten Big Ten foe Maryland this weekend. ... Denver can lock up the top seed in the Big East tournament with a win over Villanova this week.

Princeton missed out on its opportunity to claim a national seed by falling to Maryland last week. ... Florida is likely on the outside of being a seed unless some teams ahead of the Gators should fall. Temple is up next in American play. ... Loyola thumped Army and American last week in preparation for Bucknell and Lafayette this week.

Jacksonville has a tough road game at Liberty on Saturday. The Flames have already beaten Virginia Tech on the road and took Duke to the wire in March. ... USC gets the Pac-12 nod this week by virtue of its superior RPI (18) as compared to fellow first-place teams Stanford (26) and Arizona State (27). ... UMass downed St. Joe’s by six to claim at least a share of the A-10 regular season title with a road game at Davidson remaining.

Towson continued its positive run with another one-goal win, this time at Hofstra. The Tigers are idle this week. ... Albany remains the America East’s only eligible unbeaten (in conference) team. ... Mercer has a tough two-game road trip to Winthrop and High Point this week.

Niagara’s OT win against Fairfield allows the Purple Eagles to hold on to the MAAC’s bid for now. ... Bryant will be favored in its final three conference games as it tries to get the top seed in its final NEC season. ... Robert Morris can clinch the MAC regular season title with a win over Central Michigan on Saturday.


Georgetown (41)

Syracuse holds on to the No. 4 seed for now, but Maryland could overtake the Orange after this weekend. ... Boston College has the No. 2 seed for now. (Sensing a theme?) The loss to Duke coupled with a potential Northwestern victory over Maryland could see the Eagles drop. ... Maryland was one of our featured winners last week. ...

Stony Brook saw its position fall one place after Maryland’s strong week. ... James Madison now has an eight-game winning streak with two to play. ... Rutgers hosts Penn State this week as the Scarlet Knights’ slim hosting chances continue to flicker. ...

Duke can lock down its claim to a seed with an upset over UNC. The Devils may earn that seed even with a loss. ... UConn’s RPI (14th) and SOS (56th) have dropped a little bit. The Huskies have beaten only one bona fide NCAA tournament team this season (UMass). ... Temple needs a win over Florida more than anyone else on the bubble. The Owls have a nice RPI (No. 15), but not a win against a team in the current field. ...

Ohio State has solid victories over Michigan and Penn State and for a half seemed to have a chance to steal one from Maryland. Hopkins and Rutgers remain as potential profile builders. ... Yale is our third team out this week but has three prime opportunities to nab important victories beginning with Wednesday’s home game against UConn. ... Michigan passed its first test by beating Penn State. The Wolverines are off this week. ...

Johns Hopkins has a high RPI (21), but no wins over a tournament-caliber squad. Yet. The Blue Jays could get one over Ohio State on Saturday. ... Stanford split in its road series at ASU and USC to bring its record to 8-2 in its last 10 games. ... Arizona State could all but button up its first NCAA bid by beating USC on Friday at home. ...

Richmond remains our first team out of the field this week. The Spiders have the Stanford victory to their name, but a close call to JMU and a decisive loss to UMass keep them out. ... Vanderbilt fought hard against Florida but will likely have to turn its attention to the American tournament for its path to the NCAA tournament. ... Virginia Tech is listed as our second-to-last- team in this week’s field on the strength of wins over JMU and Notre Dame. The loss to Liberty is its major blemish and the Hokies need to get by Virginia next. ...

Colorado will give the committee fits if it remains 35th in the RPI as it does today. It’s tough to ignore that large of a number while the Buffaloes have wins over Ohio State and Stanford. ... Saint Joseph’s couldn’t muster the upset in Amherst and will have to go through the A-10 tournament. ... Cornell has dropped three of four but wins over Albany and Penn aren’t bad consolation prizes. ...

Georgetown’s RPI has risen to 41 this week despite the close loss to Denver. The Hoyas' candidacy could be interesting should they beat Marquette this week and find a way against UConn after that. ... Navy is playing well against Patriot League competition (6-0) and will likely need to win its final three conference contests to overcome its poor RPI (43) and sniff an at-large bid
PROJECTED BRACKET

Bracketing procedures:

The committee seeds the top eight teams to host first- and second-round games. The top three seeds will receive byes into the second round. All other teams are unseeded and will be placed with geographical considerations (e.g., teams will drive vs. fly), while keeping bracket integrity when possible.

Schools located more than 400 miles from any host institution will fly to their assigned location.

Conference matchups must be avoided in the first round.

It’s possible a seeded team may not host due to factors such as facility availability. We anticipate each seed hosting and bracket them accordingly, but the committee may not have that option.

Chapel Hill, N.C.

USC vs. Virginia Tech
Winner plays at (1) North Carolina (ACC)

Durham, N.C.

Towson (CAA) at (8) Duke
James Madison vs. Jacksonville (ASUN)

Syracuse, N.Y.

Niagara (MAAC) at (4) Syracuse
Princeton (IVY) vs. Albany (AMERICA EAST)

College Park, Md.

Robert Morris (MAC) at (5) Maryland
Loyola (PATRIOT) vs. Ohio State

Newton, Mass.

Arizona State vs. UConn
Winner plays at (2) Boston College

Denver

Mercer (BIG SOUTH) at (7) Denver (BIG EAST)
Florida (AMERICAN) vs. Colorado

Stony Brook, N.Y.

Bryant (NEC) at (6) Stony Brook
Rutgers vs. UMass (A-10)

Evanston, Ill.

Stanford vs. Michigan
Winner plays at (3) Northwestern (BIG TEN)

Last Four In: UConn, Michigan, Virginia Tech, Colorado
First Four Out: Richmond, Temple, Yale, Johns Hopkins
Next Four Out: Vanderbilt, Saint Joseph’s, Navy, Cornell

Moving In: Virginia Tech
Moving Out: Virginia

Multi-bid Conferences: ACC (5), Big Ten (5), Pac-12 (4), America East (2), Big East (2), CAA (2)
Most Recent
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Massive RPI shifts are less common later in the season. So when they do happen, you notice.
Bracketology: How Penn Could Miss the Ivy Tournament and Still Make NCAAs

This week’s bracket projection carries with it a preemptive history lesson.

wow SB has a tough match-up

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Bryant (NEC) at (6) Stony Brook
Rutgers vs. UMass (A-10)

wow SB has a tough match-up

Yeah--might as well call it a scrimmage.

[Laxorama12]

Richmond fan here. Sounds like as of now they are slightly out of the field. Just wondering....... if they win their last regular season game against George Mason and get a win in the A10 semi-final versus St Joe's or Davidson but lose in the final to UMass do they have a shot?

[TNLAX]

Richmond fan here. Sounds like as of now they are slightly out of the field. Just wondering....... if they win their last regular season game against George Mason and get a win in the A10 semi-final versus St Joe's or Davidson but lose in the final to UMass do they have a shot?

I am not on the selection committee, but I would say "YES". They don't have any 'bad" losses and they have a "good" win vs. Stanford. But I have been wrong before. A strong finish as you suggest, would benefit them.