Duke

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I guess I won’t wait till I get home.

Here is full disclosure for the verkakta SOS formula for games played through 4/17. You can’t see Loyola because they are found at 33 behind all these other powerhouses like Dartmouth and California. Yet STILL Duke is right with the pack, like I said. With the stoopid formulas or without them, my original premise stands unsullied by all the horseschidt formulas, and twisting of the intent of my original point.



https://lacrossereference.com/stats/str ... -d1-women/

[wlaxphan20]

I guess I won’t wait till I get home.

Here is full disclosure for the verkakta SOS formula for games played through 4/17. You can’t see Loyola because they are found at 33 behind all these other powerhouses like Dartmouth and California. Yet STILL Duke is right with the pack, like I said. With the stoopid formulas or without them, my original premise stands unsullied by all the horseschidt formulas, and twisting of the intent of my original point.



https://lacrossereference.com/stats/str ... -d1-women/

I don't think you're looking at the right thing. They, for NCAA SOS, have JMU's SOS at 13 and Florida at 16. Duke is at 27. Loyola is 25 & SBU is 26 with Duke just like crazyhorse predicted they would be. But as of right now they are definitely not "right up there" with JMU and Florida

[wlaxphan20]

Even the stoopid (as Doc calls it) RPI is proving my point. Seen the updated RPI today?



Right there with the pack, just like I said.

And yes, I have seen the updated RPI. They moved up a whopping 2 places from 14 to 12. And I believe the bulk of your argument was about SOS which, hasn't changed much at all and is not "right with the pack" and has not "certainly come closer to what I said it would be":

http://college.laxpower2.com/womx/rating01x.php
https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/

crazyhorse already explained how it would likely play out. Their SOS is right with Loyola, where it has been for a while, SBU might drop down to the same SOS as Loyola & Duke, but the chances of Florida & SBU's schedule dropping to the low 20's or Duke's jumping to the top 10 are nearly impossible.

[wlaxphan20]

Well, well, well. I discovered something about happy crappy SOS today that convinces me beyond all shadow of a doubt that the formula is...how does DMac say it?—oh yes, Horseschidt. I said RPI belongs in the trash? SOS should be flushed down the toilet.

Full disclosure later...

Again...no one disagreed with you that the meaningfulness of RPI/SOS is faulty. They disagreed with your predictions about the results of the calculations themselves. Talk about missing an obvious point.

THIS was my original point:

viewtopic.php?p=355305#p355305

YOU GUYS were the ones pulling out your slide rules to discredit my original premise. When I wrote “strength of schedule” I wasn’t referring to the verkakta SOS formula. If you go further back in this thread, you will see that the people who inspired my original thought weren’t either. Yet even after the slide rules were applied, my point still is valid. Today’s RPI is right there. And the SOS has certainly come closer to what I said it would be. And we’re not done with the season yet. Either way, my original premise stands—unsullied by all the stoopid math formulas.

So you say this is your original point that is so very obvious but that people somehow misunderstood:

It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others.

Even if that was your original point, you then followed up with this:

Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.

And doubled down with this:

Let's check back on this here Duke's-SOS-(not to mention RPI)-won't-be-in-the-same-grouping-as-these-other-teams assertion after today's results, shall we?

#7 Duke played #2 BC W 16-15

#5 Stony Brook played UMass Lowell W 16-1
#6 Loyola played Army W 16-7
#8 Florida played Vandy W 16-8
#11 James Madison played William & Mary W 21-9

So now, essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs. Monday's adjusted RPI and SOS rankings ought to be interesting, no? Tell me again how I should have stopped at "I'm not a math guy".

I'll wait...

The latter two are clearly talking about the calculation of RPI/SOS. The latter two are what several posters replied to. They weren't responding to your "original point". Those posters took the time to clearly explain why they didn't agree with your posts about RPI/SOS and back it up with facts, only for you to turn around and say you were never talking about the calculations in the first place:

My theory about the schedules of the aforementioned teams does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable. As I have stated on numerous occasions--the RPI metric is flawed. NCAA D1 men's basketball tossed it out with the trash in 2018. The SOS equation is also flawed. Anyone pointing to either and saying "this is conclusive" is missing the common sense eye test component. But even with these two flawed equations being brought into the conversation, they still prove my point – namely, that Duke is in the mix with these other teams when it comes to the similarity, and by extension strength, of their schedule.

If the first quote is your "original point" then what are the latter two? Are they backing up your "original point"? Because if they are, then it is abundantly clear that you were talking about calculated RPI/SOS. If the latter two quotes are not backing up your "original point" then they are unrelated and independent. If the latter two posts are separate ideologies unrelated to the original, then why are you bringing the first quote up as the point people missed when they are talking about something separate?

It is difficult to see where people have been twisting your words and pulling out slide rules.

[laxagainsthumanity]

This is not worth your time. Go do something you enjoy instead.

[wlaxphan20]

This is not worth your time. Go do something you enjoy instead.

Thanks, you are probably right.

[tothedraw]

This is not worth your time. Go do something you enjoy instead.

Thanks, you are probably right.

I was writing up a similar response but did want to sound obnoxious, haha. LAH, you said it well! I've gone down that rabbit hole before.

[@inthe8m]

This is not worth your time. Go do something you enjoy instead.

Thanks, you are probably right.

I was writing up a similar response but did want to sound obnoxious, haha. LAH, you said it well! I've gone down that rabbit hole before.

+1 on the go do something you enjoy instead. I was going to have all of my fingernails slowly pulled out one by one.

[Dr. Tact]

This is not worth your time. Go do something you enjoy instead.

Thanks, you are probably right.

I was writing up a similar response but did want to sound obnoxious, haha. LAH, you said it well! I've gone down that rabbit hole before.

+1 on the go do something you enjoy instead. I was going to have all of my fingernails slowly pulled out one by one.

You have fingernails left???? Lucky (said in Napoleon D. voice) and dont get me started on talons https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAtoMSjOQ1A

[laxer12]

This is not worth your time. Go do something you enjoy instead.

Thanks, you are probably right.

He contradicts himself and gaslights people very often and then gets upset when some call him out on it.

[crazyhorse]

Yeah, we all just misunderstood your original post:

"It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others."

How were we to know you weren't talking about strength of schedule when you mentioned strength of schedule?? Silly rabbits - tricks are for kids.

The really rich part is you now trying to come up with other metrics (RPI, winning percentage, computer ratings) to defend getting called out when earlier you claimed that you don't need statistics to make your theory viable. So which is it? Metrics or no metrics?

Move the goalposts. Deny and deflect. Revise history. Rinse and repeat.

[8meterPA]

Yeah, we all just misunderstood your original post:

"It occurs to me that Duke has been unfairly criticized to a degree in the area of strength of schedule. What’s the difference between Duke and Stony Brook? Duke schedules cupcakes for their out of conference games and Stony Brook has the cupcakes built in to their in-conference games. Same is true for JMU, Florida and Loyola. Look at the other teams in these conferences where there is one dominant team and the rest of the teams marginal to weak. For all intents and purposes, what’s the difference between Duke’s schedule and Stony Brook, Loyola, JMU and Florida? In the overall assessment of schedules, Duke’s is pretty much identical to these others."

How were we to know you weren't talking about strength of schedule when you mentioned strength of schedule?? Silly rabbits - tricks are for kids.

The really rich part is you now trying to come up with other metrics (RPI, winning percentage, computer ratings) to defend getting called out when earlier you claimed that you don't need statistics to make your theory viable. So which is it? Metrics or no metrics?

Move the goalposts. Deny and deflect. Revise history. Rinse and repeat.

Anyone a Simpson's fan and know how to insert a meme? I think the "stop, stop, he's already dead" one would be appropriate. Maybe ONW can insert it himself and show a bit of a sense of humor and move on.

[crazyhorse]

Advice taken. Moving on. WIll update my bracketology tonight if I have time to give us all something else to talk about. Maybe I can figure out how to do one that doesn't use strength of schedule - sorry, couldn't resist!

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

The SOS formula sounds like it makes sense when one hears it explained a certain way. Yet, the stupidity of the metric is exposed in the results. The essential flaw is there is no room for common sense in this method of measuring teams, or to paraphrase it the way seacoaster did the other day after assessing the results of a computer generated arrangement of teams, "Can I have some of what you're smoking?" Once the data is entered, the result is the result. You’re stuck with the (unworthy) teams and their place in the ranking.

An excellent case in point are the Florida Gators. Their schedule this year when viewed in the clear-headed light of day has to be considered one of, if not THE, toughest non-ACC slates in all of D1. I’ve arranged their opponents here from strongest to middle of the pack—not using any rankings mind, just my opinion:

North Carolina
Syracuse
Stony Brook 
Maryland
Loyola
Arizona State
Drexel
Vanderbilt

Remaining to play:

Temple
Jacksonville


Before I give the teams which are deemed to play tougher schedules than Florida according to the SOS discipline, here is the explanation of the different SOS metrics used from the Lacrosse Reference website (which was updated last night):

"Since SOS is a key metric in determining inclusion and seeding in the NCAA tournament, I wanted to include it in our stat repository. I have included the NCAA’s version of SOS (based on the average RPI of your top 10 opponents; visible starting Mar 1) and my version, which takes into account the entire schedule AND accounts for the opponent’s strength at the time of the game and currently (as measured by opponent LaxElo rating)."

Yet when checking each way of measuring SOS (gotten by clicking NCAA SOS, LaxRef SOS or LaxRef NCSOS [you may toggle the list in ascending or descending order by clicking on the heading multiple times]) each formula spits out more than a few baffling results. To wit:

When clicking on NCAA SOS, we find that Louisville, Michigan, Arizona State, Pittsburgh, Penn State, Virginia Tech, Penn and Johns Hopkins are all considered to have tougher schedules than Florida.

Next—LaxRef SOS lists Penn State, Johns Hopkins and Louisville as having tougher slates.

Finally—the LaxRef NCSOS which gives us Arizona State as the toughest SOS in all of D1 followed by Dartmouth and Stanford before we see Florida.

See for yourself:

https://lacrossereference.com/stats/str ... -d1-women/

You want further reasons to scoff? Look at some of the teams listed ahead of Duke using the same three metrics on the website.

It’s deceptive to show only the SOS rankings of a small group of teams without including the other teams in the group. If full disclosure is given, the idiocy of this formula is exposed, and by extension is found to be a deeply flawed discipline when used by anyone as a valid means of measuring the stature of a given team. After researching this topic and mulling it these past few days, I have come to the conclusion that SOS stands for So Obviously Stupid. Anyone making reference to it as valid with a straight face would have been right in the crowd complimenting the emperor on his fancy new threads.


So, forever eschewing the verkakte straight math SOS formula, let's get back to the common sense comparison of Duke’s strength of schedule, taking a look at the toughest opponents, descending to middle of the pack opponents, side by side:


 
Is the contrast really that striking between Duke's schedule and the other teams? Right in the middle of the pack, no?

The more I learn about SOS and how it is used in college sports, the more convinced I’m becoming that it was a bill of goods that initially got sold to the NCAA by some entrepreneuring mathematician who thought he found the solution (Eureka!) to the annual kerfuffle in the wake of the committee’s decisions as to Tournament participants. This business savvy nerd was given final approval to install the new formula by some Neville Chamberlain type whose responsibility it was to make the final decision of adopting the shiny new toy to eliminate once and for all the kvetching from snubbed programs about not making the tournament, or making the tournament but protesting their seeding.

Now the committee had an out: “Hey – we’re just going by the NCAA and FDA approved SOS and RPI metrics. Just straight math, dude! Can’t blame anybody here. We’re just going by the formulas.” Thereby relieving themselves of any heat. Yet even still, it breaks down. Just ask LeMoyne how they feel about computer algorithms and numbers for deciding dance tickets.

[Justalaxdad]

Sheesh! This is exhausting just reading - can’t imagine how exhausting it is researching and posting!

[@inthe8m]

Updated SOS numbers through games played yesterday.

sos 0421.png (8.77 KiB) Viewed 830 times

http://college.laxpower2.com/womx/rating01x.php

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Sheesh! This is exhausting just reading - can’t imagine how exhausting it is researching and posting!

Took me a few days of mulling and a few days of rough drafts and final drafts before the finished product. It’s actually a pleasure to post. It’s nice when a thought comes together.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Updated SOS numbers through games played yesterday.

sos 0421.png

http://college.laxpower2.com/womx/rating01x.php

Where are the rest of the teams between Florida and Loyola? Can we see the entire list please? Or a link to the entire list?

[wlaxphan20]

Updated SOS numbers through games played yesterday.

sos 0421.png

http://college.laxpower2.com/womx/rating01x.php

Where are the rest of the teams between Florida and Loyola? Can we see the entire list please? Or a link to the entire list?

The link is listed at the end of @inthe8m post.

[@inthe8m]

Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

To your point ...
acc sos 0417.png

Updated ...

acc sos 0421.png (8.58 KiB) Viewed 784 times