Duke

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I tried. Hard to refute your statement if flawed calculations don't matter.

Fixed that for you.

[laxagainsthumanity]

I tried. Hard to refute your statement if calculations don't matter.

Not worth it. He either is intentionally obtuse or has terrible reading comprehension. Or just doesn't read what others write. Not sure which.

[@inthe8m]

Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

To your point ...

acc sos 0417.png (8.52 KiB) Viewed 1039 times

[@inthe8m]

I tried. Hard to refute your statement if calculations don't matter.

Not worth it. He either is intentionally obtuse or unintentionally obtuse. Or just doesn't read what others write. Not sure which.

That is about the sum of it and neither one is conducive to having a productive conversation.

[wlaxphan20]

Been away for most of the weekend - feel like this one was directed at me, so let me try to explain SOS again. These were my guesses from last week on how SOS might shake out:

As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.

Borrowing from inthe8m's post from this morning on updated SOS:
Florida SOS went from 4 to 5. Still on track to finish around 8ish in my estimation.
JMU went from 7 to 9. Still on track to finish around 10.
Stony Brook SOS went from 15 to 20. Still on track to fall to 25ish and be in same ballpark as Duke.
Loyola stayed at 35. Playing Army didn't hurt cuz Army has a good winning pct.
Duke dropped from 37 to 38. A lot of the teams they have played lost yesterday so avg winning pct likely stayed flat.

I'm simply trying again to essplain to you how SOS works. Your contention that these 5 schools will end up with similar SOS is incorrect. Their schedule does not balance out with the others. Loyola, yes. Stony Brook, maybe. JMU and Florida, definitely not.

All that said, great win for Duke yesterday. It was the significant win they lacked and gives them a puncher's chance of sneaking onto the seed line though still may be tough cuz their RPI only went up to 11.

Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

My theory about the schedules of the aforementioned teams does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable. As I have stated on numerous occasions--the RPI metric is flawed. NCAA D1 men's basketball tossed it out with the trash in 2018. The SOS equation is also flawed. Anyone pointing to either and saying "this is conclusive" is missing the common sense eye test component. But even with these two flawed equations being brought into the conversation, they still prove my point – namely, that Duke is in the mix with these other teams when it comes to the similarity, and by extension strength, of their schedule.

Your theory was stated in response to posts about RPI & SOS, and to me, it sure does sound like your theory involved calculating RPI & SOS.

Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.

You then asked if someone could "essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs." Which to me sounds like you're still talking about Duke within the context of calculated RPI & SOS. Just because someone understands it, and has taken the time to explain it, does not mean they agree with it - and in fact, several have even stated they don't. Also, just because Duke happened to play BC on a day where JMU/SBU/Florida/Loyola played weaker teams, it very much does not show the full picture of an entire season. You cannot possibly draw conclusions like that about each teams strength of schedule based on one day of games.

So there's your first statement, clearly discussing how Duke's remaining games will be calculated into their RPI/SOS. Then there's your second, asking RPI and SOS to be explained to you & stating that somehow games that took place on one day are representative of an entire season's schedule. To counter that your theory "does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable" is, IMO, moving the goal posts. No one on here has stated that RPI is the perfect, conclusive ranking method. I think everyone else on the forum is very well aware of what exactly RPI tells us and what it fails to acknowledge. It is what it is, and it is just one of several tools the selection committee uses. Yes, M&W basketball no longer use it, but baseball, softball, volleyball, soccer, and lacrosse still do.

There are 358 D1 Mens BB programs, and only 117 D1 wlax. Personally, I don't think there are enough D1 women's lacrosse teams to seriously manipulate RPI to the point that the Missouri Valley Conference did. With only 117 it's much more difficult to hide.

[crazyhorse]

I tried. Hard to refute your statement if flawed calculations don't matter.

Fixed that for you.

Thank you! What would we do without you?

[crazyhorse]

Been away for most of the weekend - feel like this one was directed at me, so let me try to explain SOS again. These were my guesses from last week on how SOS might shake out:

As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.

Borrowing from inthe8m's post from this morning on updated SOS:
Florida SOS went from 4 to 5. Still on track to finish around 8ish in my estimation.
JMU went from 7 to 9. Still on track to finish around 10.
Stony Brook SOS went from 15 to 20. Still on track to fall to 25ish and be in same ballpark as Duke.
Loyola stayed at 35. Playing Army didn't hurt cuz Army has a good winning pct.
Duke dropped from 37 to 38. A lot of the teams they have played lost yesterday so avg winning pct likely stayed flat.

I'm simply trying again to essplain to you how SOS works. Your contention that these 5 schools will end up with similar SOS is incorrect. Their schedule does not balance out with the others. Loyola, yes. Stony Brook, maybe. JMU and Florida, definitely not.

All that said, great win for Duke yesterday. It was the significant win they lacked and gives them a puncher's chance of sneaking onto the seed line though still may be tough cuz their RPI only went up to 11.

Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

My theory about the schedules of the aforementioned teams does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable. As I have stated on numerous occasions--the RPI metric is flawed. NCAA D1 men's basketball tossed it out with the trash in 2018. The SOS equation is also flawed. Anyone pointing to either and saying "this is conclusive" is missing the common sense eye test component. But even with these two flawed equations being brought into the conversation, they still prove my point – namely, that Duke is in the mix with these other teams when it comes to the similarity, and by extension strength, of their schedule.

Your theory was stated in response to posts about RPI & SOS, and to me, it sure does sound like your theory involved calculating RPI & SOS.

Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.

You then asked if someone could "essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs." Which to me sounds like you're still talking about Duke within the context of calculated RPI & SOS. Just because someone understands it, and has taken the time to explain it, does not mean they agree with it - and in fact, several have even stated they don't. Also, just because Duke happened to play BC on a day where JMU/SBU/Florida/Loyola played weaker teams, it very much does not show the full picture of an entire season. You cannot possibly draw conclusions like that about each teams strength of schedule based on one day of games.

So there's your first statement, clearly discussing how Duke's remaining games will be calculated into their RPI/SOS. Then there's your second, asking RPI and SOS to be explained to you & stating that somehow games that took place on one day are representative of an entire season's schedule. To counter that your theory "does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable" is, IMO, moving the goal posts. No one on here has stated that RPI is the perfect, conclusive ranking method. I think everyone else on the forum is very well aware of what exactly RPI tells us and what it fails to acknowledge. It is what it is, and it is just one of several tools the selection committee uses. Yes, M&W basketball no longer use it, but baseball, softball, volleyball, soccer, and lacrosse still do.

There are 358 D1 Mens BB programs, and only 117 D1 wlax. Personally, I don't think there are enough D1 women's lacrosse teams to seriously manipulate RPI to the point that the Missouri Valley Conference did. With only 117 it's much more difficult to hide.

Well said - moving the goal posts. I was going to say "deny and deflect".

[laxer12]

Been away for most of the weekend - feel like this one was directed at me, so let me try to explain SOS again. These were my guesses from last week on how SOS might shake out:

As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.

Borrowing from inthe8m's post from this morning on updated SOS:
Florida SOS went from 4 to 5. Still on track to finish around 8ish in my estimation.
JMU went from 7 to 9. Still on track to finish around 10.
Stony Brook SOS went from 15 to 20. Still on track to fall to 25ish and be in same ballpark as Duke.
Loyola stayed at 35. Playing Army didn't hurt cuz Army has a good winning pct.
Duke dropped from 37 to 38. A lot of the teams they have played lost yesterday so avg winning pct likely stayed flat.

I'm simply trying again to essplain to you how SOS works. Your contention that these 5 schools will end up with similar SOS is incorrect. Their schedule does not balance out with the others. Loyola, yes. Stony Brook, maybe. JMU and Florida, definitely not.

All that said, great win for Duke yesterday. It was the significant win they lacked and gives them a puncher's chance of sneaking onto the seed line though still may be tough cuz their RPI only went up to 11.

Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.

My theory about the schedules of the aforementioned teams does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable. As I have stated on numerous occasions--the RPI metric is flawed. NCAA D1 men's basketball tossed it out with the trash in 2018. The SOS equation is also flawed. Anyone pointing to either and saying "this is conclusive" is missing the common sense eye test component. But even with these two flawed equations being brought into the conversation, they still prove my point – namely, that Duke is in the mix with these other teams when it comes to the similarity, and by extension strength, of their schedule.

Your theory was stated in response to posts about RPI & SOS, and to me, it sure does sound like your theory involved calculating RPI & SOS.

Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.

You then asked if someone could "essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs." Which to me sounds like you're still talking about Duke within the context of calculated RPI & SOS. Just because someone understands it, and has taken the time to explain it, does not mean they agree with it - and in fact, several have even stated they don't. Also, just because Duke happened to play BC on a day where JMU/SBU/Florida/Loyola played weaker teams, it very much does not show the full picture of an entire season. You cannot possibly draw conclusions like that about each teams strength of schedule based on one day of games.

So there's your first statement, clearly discussing how Duke's remaining games will be calculated into their RPI/SOS. Then there's your second, asking RPI and SOS to be explained to you & stating that somehow games that took place on one day are representative of an entire season's schedule. To counter that your theory "does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable" is, IMO, moving the goal posts. No one on here has stated that RPI is the perfect, conclusive ranking method. I think everyone else on the forum is very well aware of what exactly RPI tells us and what it fails to acknowledge. It is what it is, and it is just one of several tools the selection committee uses. Yes, M&W basketball no longer use it, but baseball, softball, volleyball, soccer, and lacrosse still do.

There are 358 D1 Mens BB programs, and only 117 D1 wlax. Personally, I don't think there are enough D1 women's lacrosse teams to seriously manipulate RPI to the point that the Missouri Valley Conference did. With only 117 it's much more difficult to hide.

Well said - moving the goal posts. I was going to say "deny and deflect".

That’s what he’s best at.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

I observe the same thing; but from my vantage point I would add prosecutorial to the nature of the obtuseness, which may or may not be fueled by one thing or another. The point I’m making is an obvious one. I’ve had others weigh in to say they got what I was saying. Not "rocket surgery" or anything. (Inside joke, that.)

No matter. Communication isn’t always easy. A lot of factors go into it. It can break down for a whole host of reasons. In the grand scheme of things, especially in this case, getting my point across isn't important. Enough people got it. I'm satisfied.

As ol' Elston Gunnn once wrote:

“Half the people can be part right all of the time;
And some of the people can be all right part of the time;
But all the people can’t be all right all of the time.”

...and that's more than fine with me.

Great fun to write about women's lacrosse on FanLax, though. I have a great time here. Very grateful for the outlet to write and create with photographs, video clips, GIF’s, etc. about a sport I have great passion for and get great enjoyment from.

Have a good night all. Great week of games coming up, with a whoooooole LOTTA new things to write about.

[Mrs@inthe8m]

Just for the record, I don’t like that Duke chose cupcakes for the out of conference portion of their schedule. There is nothing noble about their ulterior motives in doing so. And for full disclosure--I'm rooting against them the rest of the way. North Carolina is not one of my favorite teams and I usually root against them—but I’ll be all gussied up in powder blue yelling Tar! HEELS!! come Thursday night.

It shouldn’t pay to avoid tough out of conference opponents so that you have more gas left in the tank for the big games against tougher opponents you are compelled to play in your own conference, and by extension, the postseason.

Yes, for all intents and purposes Duke's schedule is as tough as Stony Brook’s, JMU’s, Florida’s and Loyola’s. But it doesn’t excuse the intent. There are still players on the team that I enjoy watching and will continue to root for. But the team as a whole? They are now on my...ahem, Root Against list for the rest of '22. (And I know Doc’ll be right there with me ).

Truly a man of principle.

I think Duke was hampered by some budget-related travel constraints and expected a better year for the ACC. I don't think their schedule looked quite how they would have liked. And I can promise you that a ~25-year head coach understands the value of being battle-tested. IMO I think it's a bit ridiculous to read some malicious intent into this scheduling - what do you think they were trying to do? Cheat their way to the Final Four? Did they lie about something? All they did was guarantee finishing above .500 despite expecting 3-5 conference losses. If you want to say this schedule doesn't deserve a seed, fine, you can certainly argue that. Absolutely. They played it very safe while others did not. But any moral judgment based on SOS is absurd.

Serious question, was the men's team given a larger travel budget? That's not a good look if true given this is Duke we are talking about. You'd think they'd have the resources and desire to treat the men's and women's programs equally. Duke MLAX and WLAX both traveled to South Bend and Syracuse for conference games. Other than that, WLAX no further than a few hours but MLAX traveled to DC, Bmore and NY. I don't care who Duke schedules OOC or the reasons why, but I don't want to see a repeat of last year where they were seeded with a 9-6 record over a more deserving Loyola team.

[Kleizaster]

I think they'll get smoked by UNC thursday night

[laxagainsthumanity]

I think Duke was hampered by some budget-related travel constraints and expected a better year for the ACC. I don't think their schedule looked quite how they would have liked. And I can promise you that a ~25-year head coach understands the value of being battle-tested. IMO I think it's a bit ridiculous to read some malicious intent into this scheduling - what do you think they were trying to do? Cheat their way to the Final Four? Did they lie about something? All they did was guarantee finishing above .500 despite expecting 3-5 conference losses. If you want to say this schedule doesn't deserve a seed, fine, you can certainly argue that. Absolutely. They played it very safe while others did not. But any moral judgment based on SOS is absurd.

Serious question, was the men's team given a larger travel budget? That's not a good look if true given this is Duke we are talking about. You'd think they'd have the resources and desire to treat the men's and women's programs equally. Duke MLAX and WLAX both traveled to South Bend and Syracuse for conference games. Other than that, WLAX no further than a few hours but MLAX traveled to DC, Bmore and NY. I don't care who Duke schedules OOC or the reasons why, but I don't want to see a repeat of last year where they were seeded with a 9-6 record over a more deserving Loyola team.

My guess would be that the men's program receives substantially more in donations from alumni/friends of the program, and potentially more from running clubs as well. Pre-COVID, the university may have been better able to provide the women's team with the additional resources it needed to level the playing field with the men's team. This is all just speculation, Duke has never struck me as an underfunded program and still doesn't. But they didn't just schedule easy, they scheduled local, and that seems like a break from their previous pattern (even in down years).

Duke is not deserving of a seed but not an easy out either. Feel a bit sorry for the team that hosts them the first weekend. This of course is assuming they don't improve their station in the next couple weeks.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

We're sitting here like a couple of guys....

Is this a quote from the movie, Joe? If so--what part? After the helicopter goes down?

[JoeMauer89]

We're sitting here like a couple of guys....

Is this a quote from the movie, Joe? If so--what part? After the helicopter goes down?

ONW,

It's from Heat, when De Niro and Pacino meet for the first time.


Joe

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

We're sitting here like a couple of guys....

Is this a quote from the movie, Joe? If so--what part? After the helicopter goes down?

ONW,

It's from Heat, when De Niro and Pacino meet for the first time.


Joe

Oh, okay. Saw that once ages ago. Thanks.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Well, well, well. I discovered something about happy crappy SOS today that convinces me beyond all shadow of a doubt that the formula is...how does DMac say it?—oh yes, Horseschidt. I said RPI belongs in the trash? SOS should be flushed down the toilet.

Full disclosure later...

[wlaxphan20]

Well, well, well. I discovered something about happy crappy SOS today that convinces me beyond all shadow of a doubt that the formula is...how does DMac say it?—oh yes, Horseschidt. I said RPI belongs in the trash? SOS should be flushed down the toilet.

Full disclosure later...

Again...no one disagreed with you that the meaningfulness of RPI/SOS is faulty. They disagreed with your predictions about the results of the calculations themselves. Talk about missing an obvious point.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Well, well, well. I discovered something about happy crappy SOS today that convinces me beyond all shadow of a doubt that the formula is...how does DMac say it?—oh yes, Horseschidt. I said RPI belongs in the trash? SOS should be flushed down the toilet.

Full disclosure later...

Again...no one disagreed with you that the meaningfulness of RPI/SOS is faulty. They disagreed with your predictions about the results of the calculations themselves. Talk about missing an obvious point.

Even the stoopid (as Doc calls it) RPI is proving my point. Seen the updated RPI today?



Right there with the pack, just like I said.

[@inthe8m]

Oh, sweetie! Duke has been in the Top 15 of RPI since the second report came out on March 20th.

[OuttaNowhereWregget]

Well, well, well. I discovered something about happy crappy SOS today that convinces me beyond all shadow of a doubt that the formula is...how does DMac say it?—oh yes, Horseschidt. I said RPI belongs in the trash? SOS should be flushed down the toilet.

Full disclosure later...

Again...no one disagreed with you that the meaningfulness of RPI/SOS is faulty. They disagreed with your predictions about the results of the calculations themselves. Talk about missing an obvious point.

THIS was my original point:

viewtopic.php?p=355305#p355305

YOU GUYS were the ones pulling out your slide rules to discredit my original premise. When I wrote “strength of schedule” I wasn’t referring to the verkakta SOS formula. If you go further back in this thread, you will see that the people who inspired my original thought weren’t either. Yet even after the slide rules were applied, my point still is valid. Today’s RPI is right there. And the SOS has certainly come closer to what I said it would be. And we’re not done with the season yet. Either way, my original premise stands—unsullied by all the stoopid math formulas.