The game coming up this Saturday afternoon has some compelling storylines. Charlotte North returns to the school she scorned for BC. The school she didn't believe would compete for a national championship.
How will she play? Will she be on her game or will she be too keyed up--firing shots high/wide and/or trying to force things. She had a great game when they met at BC last year (6 goals, 7 DC's). She's human. I'm sure she wants to have another great game--this time at Koskinen.
Also, Duke gets another chance to prove that they don't need North to win. That their ducking tough OOC opponents was irrelevant.
(I'll tell you what--if Duke knocks off BC, Nobody will be talking about the cupcakes anymore.)
I've watched Duke play a few times this year. They have a tendency to take their foot off the gas. They can't afford to do that against BC.
I think a lot of goals will be scored by both teams in this one, but BC will score more.
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 11:05 am
Bear in mind that the RPI/SOS has yet to be tallied for Duke’s upcoming games versus Boston College and North Carolina. (Nor have these other teams finished playing their in-conference cupcakes.) When those games have been played, rest assured Duke’s schedule will be right there with the rest of these teams.
Let's check back on this here Duke's-SOS-(not to mention RPI)-won't-be-in-the-same-grouping-as-these-other-teams assertion after today's results, shall we?
#7 Duke played #2 BC W 16-15
#5 Stony Brook played UMass Lowell W 16-1
#6 Loyola played Army W 16-7
#8 Florida played Vandy W 16-8
#11 James Madison played William & Mary W 21-9
So now, essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs. Monday's adjusted RPI and SOS rankings ought to be interesting, no? Tell me again how I should have stopped at "I'm not a math guy".
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:08 pm
Let's check back on this here Duke's-SOS-(not to mention RPI)-won't-be-in-the-same-grouping-as-these-other-teams assertion after today's results, shall we?
#7 Duke played #2 BC W 16-15
#5 Stony Brook played UMass Lowell W 16-1
#6 Loyola played Army W 16-7
#8 Florida played Vandy W 16-8
#11 James Madison played William & Mary W 21-9
So now, essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs. Monday's adjusted RPI and SOS rankings ought to be interesting, no? Tell me again how I should have stopped at "I'm not a math guy".
Just for the record, I don’t like that Duke chose cupcakes for the out of conference portion of their schedule. There is nothing noble about their ulterior motives in doing so. And for full disclosure--I'm rooting against them the rest of the way. North Carolina is not one of my favorite teams and I usually root against them—but I’ll be all gussied up in powder blue yelling Tar! HEELS!! come Thursday night.
It shouldn’t pay to avoid tough out of conference opponents so that you have more gas left in the tank for the big games against tougher opponents you are compelled to play in your own conference, and by extension, the postseason.
Yes, for all intents and purposes Duke's schedule is as tough as Stony Brook’s, JMU’s, Florida’s and Loyola’s. But it doesn’t excuse the intent. There are still players on the team that I enjoy watching and will continue to root for. But the team as a whole? They are now on my...ahem, Root Against list for the rest of '22. (And I know Doc’ll be right there with me ).
Thanks! https://lacrossereference.com/stats/rpi-d1-women/ hasn't updated their numbers from yesterday yet, so using the two sites it looks like Duke's RPI hasn't changed all that much either (RPI of 0.6260 before yesterday's game, RPI of 0.641 after) give or take a few hundredths or thousandths because I'm not sure the two sites use identical formulas
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:29 am
Just for the record, I don’t like that Duke chose cupcakes for the out of conference portion of their schedule. There is nothing noble about their ulterior motives in doing so. And for full disclosure--I'm rooting against them the rest of the way. North Carolina is not one of my favorite teams and I usually root against them—but I’ll be all gussied up in powder blue yelling Tar! HEELS!! come Thursday night.
It shouldn’t pay to avoid tough out of conference opponents so that you have more gas left in the tank for the big games against tougher opponents you are compelled to play in your own conference, and by extension, the postseason.
Yes, for all intents and purposes Duke's schedule is as tough as Stony Brook’s, JMU’s, Florida’s and Loyola’s. But it doesn’t excuse the intent. There are still players on the team that I enjoy watching and will continue to root for. But the team as a whole? They are now on my...ahem, Root Against list for the rest of '22. (And I know Doc’ll be right there with me ).
Appreciate the sentiment of your post that Duke's OOC schedule was excessively wimpy, but I don't think you give SBU, FLA, JMU and LU enough credit for their schedules and willingness to put themselves out there against top OOC teams. Loyola's SOS is dinged more than the others because the Patriot League is larger and has more very low RPI teams. But, 4 of 7 America East and CAA teams are in the top 50th percentile RPI, and 4 of 6 AAC teams are top 50th percentile RPI. The two lowest RPI teams in the CAA are Elon and W&M. Guess who else also played both those teams...by choice? Hint: ACC team in NC that is not UNC. Duke also played 3 Big South teams with RPIs of 63, 89 and 102.
Some of these "crappy" conferences may not be as tough as the ACC or Big 10, but they aren't as weak as some make them out to be. Next year the AAC will be even stronger with JMU joining, assuming Temple and Vandy don't drop off. CAA will stay about the same swapping SBU for JMU with a few other teams that have potential to be stronger than they are this year.
Mrs@inthe8m wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:15 pm
Appreciate the sentiment of your post that Duke's OOC schedule was excessively wimpy, but I don't think you give SBU, FLA, JMU and LU enough credit for their schedules and willingness to put themselves out there against top OOC teams. Loyola's SOS is dinged more than the others because the Patriot League is larger and has more very low RPI teams. But, 4 of 7 America East and CAA teams are in the top 50th percentile RPI, and 4 of 6 AAC teams are top 50th percentile RPI. The two lowest RPI teams in the CAA are Elon and W&M. Guess who else also played both those teams...by choice? Hint: ACC team in NC that is not UNC. Duke also played 3 Big South teams with RPIs of 63, 89 and 102.
Some of these "crappy" conferences may not be as tough as the ACC or Big 10, but they aren't as weak as some make them out to be. Next year the AAC will be even stronger with JMU joining, assuming Temple and Vandy don't drop off. CAA will stay about the same swapping SBU for JMU with a few other teams that have potential to be stronger than they are this year.
I find nothing to contradict in what you wrote here, other than assuming that I don't give Stony Brook, Florida, JMU and Loyola credit for their tough out of conference schedules. Let's face it, they have to schedule tough OOC opponents if they want to seriously challenge for the golden chalice. These teams won't get battle tested playing against their own conference so they must seek to have their axes sharpened elsewhere--out of conference. I've heard, and I don't see any reason to doubt, that some of these teams have trouble finding OOC teams to fulfill that need. To use Stony Brook as a case in point, if I had to guess, I would say "Innovator Joe" Spallina contacts many top 10 teams only to be told 'no thanks' because there really isn't much positive to gain from playing his (admirable) hardworking lunch pail gang teams. And much more for these other teams to lose by playing Stony Brook. I'm grateful that there are some programs out there like Syracuse, Northwestern, et al. that do reserve a spot for the Seawolves on their schedule each year, but more do not. I imagine the same goes for the other teams in varying degrees as well. It isn't the fault of the four teams mentioned that they play in weaker conferences.
I celebrate JMU joining the AAC. The battles with Florida should be real showstoppers. I also think Stony Brook will get an upgrade in competition in the CAA playing Towson, Drexel, Hofstra every year. I see potential for improvement in the other CAA teams than I do the teams left in the AE. So essentially, I'm with you.
Nice of you to join in the conversation. I enjoy reading your posts. To paraphrase Oliver Twist's request--More please.
Mrs@inthe8m wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:15 pm
Appreciate the sentiment of your post that Duke's OOC schedule was excessively wimpy, but I don't think you give SBU, FLA, JMU and LU enough credit for their schedules and willingness to put themselves out there against top OOC teams. Loyola's SOS is dinged more than the others because the Patriot League is larger and has more very low RPI teams. But, 4 of 7 America East and CAA teams are in the top 50th percentile RPI, and 4 of 6 AAC teams are top 50th percentile RPI. The two lowest RPI teams in the CAA are Elon and W&M. Guess who else also played both those teams...by choice? Hint: ACC team in NC that is not UNC. Duke also played 3 Big South teams with RPIs of 63, 89 and 102.
Some of these "crappy" conferences may not be as tough as the ACC or Big 10, but they aren't as weak as some make them out to be. Next year the AAC will be even stronger with JMU joining, assuming Temple and Vandy don't drop off. CAA will stay about the same swapping SBU for JMU with a few other teams that have potential to be stronger than they are this year.
I find nothing to contradict in what you wrote here, other than assuming that I don't give Stony Brook, Florida, JMU and Loyola credit for their tough out of conference schedules. Let's face it, they have to schedule tough OOC opponents if they want to seriously challenge for the golden chalice. These teams won't get battle tested playing against their own conference so they must seek to have their axes sharpened elsewhere--out of conference. I've heard, and I don't see any reason to doubt, that some of these teams have trouble finding OOC teams to fulfill that need. To use Stony Brook as a case in point, if I had to guess, I would say "Innovator Joe" Spallina contacts many top 10 teams only to be told 'no thanks' because there really isn't much positive to gain from playing his (admirable) hardworking lunch pail gang teams. And much more for these other teams to lose by playing Stony Brook. I'm grateful that there are some programs out there like Syracuse, Northwestern, et al. that do reserve a spot for the Seawolves on their schedule each year, but more do not. I imagine the same goes for the other teams in varying degrees as well. It isn't the fault of the four teams mentioned that they play in weaker conferences.
I celebrate JMU joining the AAC. The battles with Florida should be real showstoppers. I also think Stony Brook will get an upgrade in competition in the CAA playing Towson, Drexel, Hofstra every year. I see potential for improvement in the other CAA teams than I do the teams left in the AE. So essentially, I'm with you.
Nice of you to join in the conversation. I enjoy reading your posts. To paraphrase Oliver Twist's request--More please.
Thank you, I could have explained my point better. You said "for all intents and purposes Duke's schedule is as tough as SBU, JMU, FLA and LU's." I disagree, but I did not mean to imply you don't give those teams credit for their OOC scheduling. IMO Duke's overall schedule is still not stronger than SBU, JMU and FLA's in spite of being in the ACC. LU's is more even with Duke's overall because Patriot league includes lower RPI/SOS teams, but Loyola has to play those teams. It's fine that we disagree, but I wanted to clarify. I think Duke has a really good team this year, and it's unfortunate their players weren't more challenged throughout the season. Maybe they would rather take an easier path and pad stats, what do I know, but that's not something my daughter would choose. It's Duke and the ACC is supposed to the the best of the best.
Mrs@inthe8m wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 1:15 pm
Appreciate the sentiment of your post that Duke's OOC schedule was excessively wimpy, but I don't think you give SBU, FLA, JMU and LU enough credit for their schedules and willingness to put themselves out there against top OOC teams. Loyola's SOS is dinged more than the others because the Patriot League is larger and has more very low RPI teams. But, 4 of 7 America East and CAA teams are in the top 50th percentile RPI, and 4 of 6 AAC teams are top 50th percentile RPI. The two lowest RPI teams in the CAA are Elon and W&M. Guess who else also played both those teams...by choice? Hint: ACC team in NC that is not UNC. Duke also played 3 Big South teams with RPIs of 63, 89 and 102.
Some of these "crappy" conferences may not be as tough as the ACC or Big 10, but they aren't as weak as some make them out to be. Next year the AAC will be even stronger with JMU joining, assuming Temple and Vandy don't drop off. CAA will stay about the same swapping SBU for JMU with a few other teams that have potential to be stronger than they are this year.
I find nothing to contradict in what you wrote here, other than assuming that I don't give Stony Brook, Florida, JMU and Loyola credit for their tough out of conference schedules. Let's face it, they have to schedule tough OOC opponents if they want to seriously challenge for the golden chalice. These teams won't get battle tested playing against their own conference so they must seek to have their axes sharpened elsewhere--out of conference. I've heard, and I don't see any reason to doubt, that some of these teams have trouble finding OOC teams to fulfill that need. To use Stony Brook as a case in point, if I had to guess, I would say "Innovator Joe" Spallina contacts many top 10 teams only to be told 'no thanks' because there really isn't much positive to gain from playing his (admirable) hardworking lunch pail gang teams. And much more for these other teams to lose by playing Stony Brook. I'm grateful that there are some programs out there like Syracuse, Northwestern, et al. that do reserve a spot for the Seawolves on their schedule each year, but more do not. I imagine the same goes for the other teams in varying degrees as well. It isn't the fault of the four teams mentioned that they play in weaker conferences.
I celebrate JMU joining the AAC. The battles with Florida should be real showstoppers. I also think Stony Brook will get an upgrade in competition in the CAA playing Towson, Drexel, Hofstra every year. I see potential for improvement in the other CAA teams than I do the teams left in the AE. So essentially, I'm with you.
Nice of you to join in the conversation. I enjoy reading your posts. To paraphrase Oliver Twist's request--More please.
Thank you, I could have explained my point better. You said "for all intents and purposes Duke's schedule is as tough as SBU, JMU, FLA and LU's." I disagree, but I did not mean to imply you don't give those teams credit for their OOC scheduling. IMO Duke's overall schedule is still not stronger than SBU, JMU and FLA's in spite of being in the ACC. LU's is more even with Duke's overall because Patriot league includes lower RPI/SOS teams, but Loyola has to play those teams. It's fine that we disagree, but I wanted to clarify. I think Duke has a really good team this year, and it's unfortunate their players weren't more challenged throughout the season. Maybe they would rather take an easier path and pad stats, what do I know, but that's not something my daughter would choose. It's Duke and the ACC is supposed to the the best of the best.
On one fine point--I don't state that Duke's schedule is stronger, but that their SOS is grouped right in with these other teams. No better, no worse. In theory, the SOS's even out among the 5 teams here, to wit: Stony Brook has all their tough games out of conference and the weaker teams in conference; whereas Duke is the opposite and have all their tough games in conference and all their easy games out of conference. When you look at it that way, for all intents and purposes, the schedules are even.
Of course, Duke gets (figurative) points detracted in my book because they're playing the system to get an advantage.
In any event--it's fun for me to discuss and learn. Thanks for explaining your position further. I feel a little more educated about the subtleties of the sport thanks to you.
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 9:26 pm
Duke gets another chance to prove that they don't need North to win.
YUP!
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 9:26 pm
That their ducking tough OOC opponents was irrelevant.
YUP!
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Wed Apr 13, 2022 9:26 pmI'll tell you what--if Duke knocks off BC, Nobody will be talking about the cupcakes anymore.
YUP!! YUP!!
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:29 am
Just for the record, I don’t like that Duke chose cupcakes for the out of conference portion of their schedule. There is nothing noble about their ulterior motives in doing so. And for full disclosure--I'm rooting against them the rest of the way. North Carolina is not one of my favorite teams and I usually root against them—but I’ll be all gussied up in powder blue yelling Tar! HEELS!! come Thursday night.
It shouldn’t pay to avoid tough out of conference opponents so that you have more gas left in the tank for the big games against tougher opponents you are compelled to play in your own conference, and by extension, the postseason.
Yes, for all intents and purposes Duke's schedule is as tough as Stony Brook’s, JMU’s, Florida’s and Loyola’s. But it doesn’t excuse the intent. There are still players on the team that I enjoy watching and will continue to root for. But the team as a whole? They are now on my...ahem, Root Against list for the rest of '22. (And I know Doc’ll be right there with me ).
Truly a man of principle.
I think Duke was hampered by some budget-related travel constraints and expected a better year for the ACC. I don't think their schedule looked quite how they would have liked. And I can promise you that a ~25-year head coach understands the value of being battle-tested. IMO I think it's a bit ridiculous to read some malicious intent into this scheduling - what do you think they were trying to do? Cheat their way to the Final Four? Did they lie about something? All they did was guarantee finishing above .500 despite expecting 3-5 conference losses. If you want to say this schedule doesn't deserve a seed, fine, you can certainly argue that. Absolutely. They played it very safe while others did not. But any moral judgment based on SOS is absurd.
laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm
Truly a man of principle.
Thanks--I try.
laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm
I think Duke was hampered by some budget-related travel constraints and expected a better year for the ACC.
You think? I have a hard time believing that Grand High Duke has budget constraints.
laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm
I don't think their schedule looked quite how they would have liked.
You don't think? How would they have liked it to look?
laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm
And I can promise you that a ~25-year head coach understands the value of being battle-tested. IMO I think it's a bit ridiculous to read some malicious intent into this scheduling - what do you think they were trying to do? Cheat their way to the Final Four? Did they lie about something?
Way overstated here. Sounds like you might have some skin in the game.
laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm
All they did was guarantee finishing above .500 despite expecting 3-5 conference losses.
All they did? You prove my point here.
laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm
If you want to say this schedule doesn't deserve a seed
Never said anything even remotely similar.
laxagainsthumanity wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 4:35 pm
They played it very safe while others did not.
Again, you prove my point.
In summation--folks will no longer be able to discount how good Duke is by the easy teams they beat and their inflated record. Now that they beat BC, the cupcakes don't matter, in that context. They're a very good team--top 5, OOC cupcakes to the contrary notwithstanding. As to intent, you proved my point a couple of times. They finagled their schedule to guarantee a sought for result as you pointed out--which to me smells.
OuttaNowhereWregget wrote: ↑Sat Apr 16, 2022 8:08 pm
Let's check back on this here Duke's-SOS-(not to mention RPI)-won't-be-in-the-same-grouping-as-these-other-teams assertion after today's results, shall we?
#7 Duke played #2 BC W 16-15
#5 Stony Brook played UMass Lowell W 16-1
#6 Loyola played Army W 16-7
#8 Florida played Vandy W 16-8
#11 James Madison played William & Mary W 21-9
So now, essplain the math to me again about these SOS's and RPI'ses and it's too late in the season. Tell me again how much better the SOS and/or RPI will be for these other teams who all dominated the unranked, marginal-to-cupcake teams they toyed with today than it will be for Duke, and how Duke's schedule won't balance out with theirs. Monday's adjusted RPI and SOS rankings ought to be interesting, no? Tell me again how I should have stopped at "I'm not a math guy".
I'll wait...
Been away for most of the weekend - feel like this one was directed at me, so let me try to explain SOS again. These were my guesses from last week on how SOS might shake out:
As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.
Borrowing from inthe8m's post from this morning on updated SOS:
Florida SOS went from 4 to 5. Still on track to finish around 8ish in my estimation.
JMU went from 7 to 9. Still on track to finish around 10.
Stony Brook SOS went from 15 to 20. Still on track to fall to 25ish and be in same ballpark as Duke.
Loyola stayed at 35. Playing Army didn't hurt cuz Army has a good winning pct.
Duke dropped from 37 to 38. A lot of the teams they have played lost yesterday so avg winning pct likely stayed flat.
I'm simply trying again to essplain to you how SOS works. Your contention that these 5 schools will end up with similar SOS is incorrect. Their schedule does not balance out with the others. Loyola, yes. Stony Brook, maybe. JMU and Florida, definitely not.
All that said, great win for Duke yesterday. It was the significant win they lacked and gives them a puncher's chance of sneaking onto the seed line though still may be tough cuz their RPI only went up to 11.
Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.
crazyhorse wrote: ↑Sun Apr 17, 2022 5:30 pm
Been away for most of the weekend - feel like this one was directed at me, so let me try to explain SOS again. These were my guesses from last week on how SOS might shake out:
As for the others in the "middle" of the SOS pack that you asked about, I did a cursory look at average winning percentages of who each team has played and who they have left. My best guesses on SOS trends:
Stony Brook - 5 conference games left - SOS could fall from 15 to 25 and be in the same ballpark as Duke.
James Madison - may see a modest drop from 6 to say 10.
Florida - should stay about the same at 5, maybe drop to 8ish. Remaining teams have decent winning percentages overall.
Loyola - believe it or not, there's may improve. Still have to play Army and Navy have really good records.
Borrowing from inthe8m's post from this morning on updated SOS:
Florida SOS went from 4 to 5. Still on track to finish around 8ish in my estimation.
JMU went from 7 to 9. Still on track to finish around 10.
Stony Brook SOS went from 15 to 20. Still on track to fall to 25ish and be in same ballpark as Duke.
Loyola stayed at 35. Playing Army didn't hurt cuz Army has a good winning pct.
Duke dropped from 37 to 38. A lot of the teams they have played lost yesterday so avg winning pct likely stayed flat.
I'm simply trying again to essplain to you how SOS works. Your contention that these 5 schools will end up with similar SOS is incorrect. Their schedule does not balance out with the others. Loyola, yes. Stony Brook, maybe. JMU and Florida, definitely not.
All that said, great win for Duke yesterday. It was the significant win they lacked and gives them a puncher's chance of sneaking onto the seed line though still may be tough cuz their RPI only went up to 11.
Final fun fact: 8 of 9 ACC schools have a SOS in the top 20. #8 is first year program Pitt at 19.
My theory about the schedules of the aforementioned teams does not need SOS/RPI equations to make it viable. As I have stated on numerous occasions--the RPI metric is flawed. NCAA D1 men's basketball tossed it out with the trash in 2018. The SOS equation is also flawed. Anyone pointing to either and saying "this is conclusive" is missing the common sense eye test component. But even with these two flawed equations being brought into the conversation, they still prove my point – namely, that Duke is in the mix with these other teams when it comes to the similarity, and by extension strength, of their schedule.
