FanLax Forum Poll

[HGK]

Notre Dame was ranked so low early in the season because they hadn't beaten anyone. A "good loss" is still a loss. Wins show what teams a team is better than. Not "good losses".

What HGK doesn't seem to understand is that the 50th to 60th best teams in the country could lose to those same three schools. But they wouldn't be ranked very high because they don't have the cachet Notre Dame has. As Fanlax Computer says above, you have to then look at whom a team has beaten to slot them in the ranking. Losing to the top three teams in the country proves nothing. Nearly every team in Division I could accomplish that.

Watched a HS game this afternoon and a team went up big, 10-3 or so. Then the losing team slowly crept back into the game (it was 13-10 at one point) until... The team that was winning all along won 14-10. Now, people will walk away from this game and say, Wow! Losing Team did pretty well only losing 14-10 (and it was 13-10 at one point)! and... I dunno. To me, it looked like Winning Team was winning handily so they took their foot off the gas. Looked to me like if Losing Team was ever to pose a real threat, Winning Team would've turned on the gas and built another 7 goal lead. On the whole, people/teams play to win, not to win by as many goals as possible. From where I'm sitting...

Okay so explain this to me - in the fan lax poll you sponsor,
ND is #12 as an aggregation of all voters. ND has ONE top 20 win and it’s to a team ranked behind them in the poll! So either the tough losses matter or every pollster should explain their rationale for how a team with one top 20
Win to a team we all ranked lower than them can be 12th. Matnum feel free to start with your rationale of how that is possible. if tough losses to top teams don’t matter I am very interested in what the responses are as
to how they can possibly be 12th.

[Matnum PI]

Okay so explain this to me - in the fan lax poll you sponsor,
ND is #12 as an aggregation of all voters. ND has ONE top 20 win and it’s to a team ranked behind them in the poll! So either the tough losses matter or every pollster should explain their rationale for how a team with one top 20
Win to a team we all ranked lower than them can be 12th. Matnum feel free to start with your rationale of how that is possible. if tough losses to top teams don’t matter I am very interested in what the responses are as
to how they can possibly be 12th.

1-I don't sponsor it. I organize it. I'm a grunt.
2- FanLax Computer is based on Ws and L, purely on Ws and Ls and... FanLax Computer has Notre Dame at #7. Even higher than #12. Because their worst loss is to OSU (not so bad) and they've beaten Duke, Syracuse, and Michigan. yes, SU and UM are not stellar wins but they're good wins. ND is ranked #9 in terms of Best Wins and #7 in terms of Worst Losses. Bottomline, they don't have any horrible losses and their wins are pretty good. And, if they beat UNC, they'll, more likely than not, jump up even more.
3- It's not that losses to top teams don't matter. It's that losses hurt every team. It's just a question of how much a team gets hurt. Yale is a good example. Their wins are pretty darn good. #3 ranking in terms of Best Wins. But... They have two losses and one was to PSU. And that loss hurts. Losses hurt. It's just a question of how much.

[jrn19]

Syracuse is 4-7. How exactly does that qualify as a “pretty good win”

[Matnum PI]

Syracuse is 4-7. How exactly does that qualify as a “pretty good win”

SU lost to Albany. That hurts and you cannot erase it. Their next worst losses are to JHU and Army. Their losses (besides Albany) aren't "good" but they're also not horrible. And... SU beat Duke, Stony Brook, and Hobart. Not amazing but something.
Bottomline, a team can be 1-9 with losses to the Top 9 teams in the nation and a win over #11 and, in theory, they'd logically be the #10 team in the nation. A 1-9 record doesn't (necessarily) mean a team sucks.

[jrn19]

Syracuse is 4-7. How exactly does that qualify as a “pretty good win”

SU lost to Albany. That hurts and you cannot erase it. Their next worst losses are to JHU and Army. Their losses (besides Albany) aren't "good" but they're also not horrible. And... SU beat Duke, Stony Brook, and Hobart. Not amazing but something.
Bottomline, a team can be 1-9 with losses to the Top 9 teams in the nation and a win over #11 and, in theory, they'd logically be the #10 team in the nation. A 1-9 record doesn't (necessarily) mean a team sucks.

If you’re 1-9 with losses to Top 10 teams that just tells me you’re definitely not a Top 10 team because you had 9 chances to beat them and you lost all of them. Every team loses games. You prove how good you are by who you beat.

[Gobigred]

Syracuse is 4-7. How exactly does that qualify as a “pretty good win”

SU lost to Albany. That hurts and you cannot erase it. Their next worst losses are to JHU and Army. Their losses (besides Albany) aren't "good" but they're also not horrible. And... SU beat Duke, Stony Brook, and Hobart. Not amazing but something.
Bottomline, a team can be 1-9 with losses to the Top 9 teams in the nation and a win over #11 and, in theory, they'd logically be the #10 team in the nation. A 1-9 record doesn't (necessarily) mean a team sucks.

If you’re 1-9 with losses to Top 10 teams that just tells me you’re definitely not a Top 10 team because you had 9 chances to beat them and you lost all of them. Every team loses games. You prove how good you are by who you beat.

Exactly right. You show how good you are by beating teams, not by losing to them.

[rolldodge]

Syracuse is 4-7. How exactly does that qualify as a “pretty good win”

SU lost to Albany. That hurts and you cannot erase it. Their next worst losses are to JHU and Army. Their losses (besides Albany) aren't "good" but they're also not horrible. And... SU beat Duke, Stony Brook, and Hobart. Not amazing but something.
Bottomline, a team can be 1-9 with losses to the Top 9 teams in the nation and a win over #11 and, in theory, they'd logically be the #10 team in the nation. A 1-9 record doesn't (necessarily) mean a team sucks.

So much circular logic, I'm not sure you'll every find your way out of the labyrinth you've created.

[ICGrad]

Well Dr.F's score-based power rating doesn't much like UNC, has them at #27:
http://college.laxpower2.com/menx/rating01.php

Though that ranking isn't without its issues as well.

For example, I can't for the life of me figure out how Duke is ranked 4 places higher than Cornell (7 v. 11) given Cornell's higher ranking in RPI (6/16), SOS (18/20) and QWF (3/30). Cornell is 10-1 against a stronger schedule and with a significantly higher RPI compared to a 9-5 Duke, and is 4 places lower than them...Huh?!?

[Matnum PI]

Syracuse is 4-7. How exactly does that qualify as a “pretty good win”

SU lost to Albany. That hurts and you cannot erase it. Their next worst losses are to JHU and Army. Their losses (besides Albany) aren't "good" but they're also not horrible. And... SU beat Duke, Stony Brook, and Hobart. Not amazing but something.
Bottomline, a team can be 1-9 with losses to the Top 9 teams in the nation and a win over #11 and, in theory, they'd logically be the #10 team in the nation. A 1-9 record doesn't (necessarily) mean a team sucks.

If you’re 1-9 with losses to Top 10 teams that just tells me you’re definitely not a Top 10 team because you had 9 chances to beat them and you lost all of them. Every team loses games. You prove how good you are by who you beat.

1 and 9 team. You lost to #1 through #9 and you beat #11. Logically, what # would this team be?

[Matnum PI]

Exactly right. You show how good you are by beating teams, not by losing to them.

The point is that rankings are relative. I'm hotter than 30 degrees. I'm hotter than 31 degrees. I'm hotter than 32... I'm hotter than 40 degrees. And... I'm cooler than 42 degrees. By definition, I'm 41 degrees.

[Matnum PI]

So much circular logic, I'm not sure you'll every find your way out of the labyrinth you've created.

There is often circular logic in these discussions. But in terms of what we're discussing right now, there is not.

[Matnum PI]

Though that ranking isn't without its issues as well. For example, I can't for the life of me figure out how...

It's because the formula gives kudos to losses that are close games. Like you. I don't like it.

[OCanada]

Upsets are a thing

[drunkmonkey30]

Can someone please explain to me how UNC is ranked in the top 10 and OSU is ranked 13th after OSU beat ND 14-11 and beat UNC 20-8, that's right, 20-8, lol. I will wait.

My rankings are based on each team's resume, not head-to-head. Not individual games but each team's entire body of work. And, with that said, UNC's resume is better than OSU's.
UNC beat Denver, Richmond, and High Point. OSU beat ND, Harvard, and JHU... and UNC. Yes, OSU has better wins (but only barely).
The issue for OSU is... UNC lost to Duke, OSU, and UVA. OSU lost to Denver, Rutgers, and Cornell. UNC's Losses are less painful than OSU's. Consequently, UNC has a better ranking.

OK...OSU lost to your #4, #6 and #14. The UNC lost to #5, #13, #16. In all cases (best loss to worst loss) OSU's are "better" losses. How are UNC's losses "less painful?"

[Matnum PI]

OK...OSU lost to your #4, #6 and #14. The UNC lost to #5, #13, #16. In all cases (best loss to worst loss) OSU's are "better" losses. How are UNC's losses "less painful?"

Because Best Wins and Worst Losses are based off of "Anchor Rankings". If you base the Best Wins and Worst Losses off of the Current Rankings, it falls into a unending, circular mess.

[rolldodge]

So much circular logic, I'm not sure you'll every find your way out of the labyrinth you've created.

There is often circular logic in these discussions. But in terms of what we're discussing right now, there is not.

1-9 team is #10 because they beat the #11 team. How did you determine the #11 team, and the 1-9 teams in order to make that team #10? This logic only works in a world where there are 11 teams, they've all played each other, and the #11 team is 0-10.

[rolldodge]

OK...OSU lost to your #4, #6 and #14. The UNC lost to #5, #13, #16. In all cases (best loss to worst loss) OSU's are "better" losses. How are UNC's losses "less painful?"

Because Best Wins and Worst Losses are based off of "Anchor Rankings". If you base the Best Wins and Worst Losses off of the Current Rankings, it falls into a unending, circular mess.

And the "anchor rankings" are last years results, right? So in your methodology, last year is more important than this year. It works as a starting point, but at this point in the season, its ludicrous.

[ICGrad]

Though that ranking isn't without its issues as well. For example, I can't for the life of me figure out how...

It's because the formula gives kudos to losses that are close games. Like you. I don't like it.

Cornell has lost one (relatively) close game; do close losses count more than wins?

[joewillie78]

Though that ranking isn't without its issues as well. For example, I can't for the life of me figure out how...

It's because the formula gives kudos to losses that are close games. Like you. I don't like it.

Cornell has lost one (relatively) close game; do close losses count more than wins?

They do in my poll, (maybe not quite as much as wins)when comparing to other teams losses, especially if it's a close loss to a highly ranked team. That's why I dinged VA. Quite a bit after the MD. Loss as if they had even kept it in the Princeton loss to Md. Range, I would have been less penal, but to lose by that amount, even though MD. Is great, it was just too much of a disparity in my opinion.
GOBIGRED
Joewillie78

[Matnum PI]

Upsets are a thing

Agreed. High Point beats Duke in the first game of the season (in theory) and... What an upset! But is it? There's only been one game played. So why is Duke assumed to be the better team? High Point won. They're better than Duke so, by definition, it's not an upset. "What is an upset?" interests me. With this in mind, based on each team's Best Wins and Worst Losses in 2022, these are the 25 Biggest Upsets thus far this season, in order:

1 Hobart over Lehigh 2/19/2022
2 UMBC over Utah 3/12/2022
3 Mount St Mary's over Navy 2/5/2022
4 Vermont over Penn State 2/16/2022
5 Merrimack over Dartmouth 2/19/2022
6 Hofstra over Delaware 4/9/2022
7 Syracuse over Duke 3/26/2022
8 Navy over Johns Hopkins 3/18/2022
9 Penn State over Yale 2/26/2022
10 VMI over Mount St Mary's 3/4/2022
11 Drexel over Saint Joseph's 3/8/2022
12 Johns Hopkins over Jacksonville 2/5/2022
13 Mount St Mary's over UMBC 2/25/2022
14 Sacred Heart over Hobart 3/19/2022
15 Richmond over Virginia 4/2/2022
16 Lafayette over Drexel 2/22/2022
17 Siena over St. John's 3/12/2022
18 Delaware over Johns Hopkins 3/20/2022
19 Colgate over Air Force 2/19/2022
20 UAlbany over Syracuse 4/7/2022
21 Brown over Penn 4/9/2022
22 Loyola over Duke 3/13/2022
23 Siena over Monmouth 4/2/2022
24 VMI over Mercer 4/2/2022
25 Utah over Jacksonville 3/6/2022