All Things Russia & Ukraine

[Jim Malone]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

[Seacoaster(1)]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

[Kismet]

RED DAWN in Ukraine

https://taskandpurpose.com/culture/dest ... -red-dawn/

[Farfromgeneva]

Russian Railways Ruled in Default as Sanctions Ensnarl Payments
A credit derivatives committee said a failure-to-pay credit event had occurred on Russian Railways debt

Train carriages owned by Russian Railways are seen on sidetracks in Moscow.
PHOTO: MAXIM SHEMETOV/REUTERS
By Alexander Gladstone and Alexander Saeedy
April 11, 2022 12:14 pm ET

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State-owned Russian Railways was declared in default of a bond obligation on Monday, setting the stage for credit insurance payouts on a Russian corporate borrower for the first time since the war in Ukraine began as sanctions impede payments to foreign creditors.

Paying agent UBS AG didn’t receive payment by the end of a grace period last month on a Swiss franc-denominated bond, constituting a failure-to-pay credit event, according to the EMEA Credit Derivatives Determination Committee, a panel of banks and investment firms overseeing credit-default swap contracts.

UBS said last month that Russian Railways claimed to have attempted payment on the 250 million Swiss franc bond, equivalent to $268 million, but that no funds were received, due to what the Russian company understands to be “legal and regulatory compliance obligations within the correspondent banking network.”

The U.S. and EU have imposed sanctions on Russian Railways that limit it from conducting transactions and obtaining financing. The White House said in February that it was including Russian Railways on a list of the 13 most critical Russian enterprises for sanctions that prevent them from raising money from the U.S. market.

Russian companies, as well as the Russian government, have been facing difficulty in servicing their debt, particularly debt owned by foreign investors, following the implementation of sanctions in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ratings agency S&P Global said over the weekend that Russia has defaulted on its foreign debt after the government attempted to make a payment on a dollar bond to investors in rubles. Russia had previously tried to make the payment in dollars but the transfer was blocked by U.S. sanctions.

[youthathletics]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

[Typical Lax Dad]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

Like the guy in

[Seacoaster(1)]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

We -- the world -- have some impossible choices pretty much right in front of us. If NATO and the West allow Russia to simply rejoin the world's economic and political communities after some passage of time -- and after rolling tanks into another sovereign's cities and literally raping and murdering its citizenry -- we are doomed. NATO and the West will have shown they are a bloc which, when pushed by the very thing they purport to oppose, slowly folds. We will come pretty soon to a crossroads at which the US and NATO will have to become more directly engaged in the war-making and defending of Ukraine, or decide that having a supermarket full of barbeque options and fresh-squeezed orange juice is more important than the survival of liberal democracies.

[MDlaxfan76]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

We -- the world -- have some impossible choices pretty much right in front of us. If NATO and the West allow Russia to simply rejoin the world's economic and political communities after some passage of time -- and after rolling tanks into another sovereign's cities and literally raping and murdering its citizenry -- we are doomed. NATO and the West will have shown they are a bloc which, when pushed by the very thing they purport to oppose, slowly folds. We will come pretty soon to a crossroads at which the US and NATO will have to become more directly engaged in the war-making and defending of Ukraine, or decide that having a supermarket full of barbeque options and fresh-squeezed orange juice is more important than the survival of liberal democracies.

+1
Unfortunately; the reality of what we face is not within our control, but it must be opposed with all necessary means.

And frankly, the sooner the Russian military is defeated convincingly, the better. But it does not appear that this will be quick, indeed, right now there is a greater possibility (than a swift Russian defeat) that the Ukrainian military will be encircled and choked off, and that Russia will then roll forward again through Ukraine.

[youthathletics]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

We -- the world -- have some impossible choices pretty much right in front of us. If NATO and the West allow Russia to simply rejoin the world's economic and political communities after some passage of time -- and after rolling tanks into another sovereign's cities and literally raping and murdering its citizenry -- we are doomed. NATO and the West will have shown they are a bloc which, when pushed by the very thing they purport to oppose, slowly folds. We will come pretty soon to a crossroads at which the US and NATO will have to become more directly engaged in the war-making and defending of Ukraine, or decide that having a supermarket full of barbeque options and fresh-squeezed orange juice is more important than the survival of liberal democracies.

No argument here....just an engaging challenge to you over taking 'the long look'.

It is why I posed a 'hypothetical' in this thread this past Saturday, to think of all the possibilities. We (collectively) can not be overly egregious, while at the same time not overtly being the fall guy; that is the type of game Putin would love and may want to/have set up....USA bad.

[MDlaxfan76]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

We -- the world -- have some impossible choices pretty much right in front of us. If NATO and the West allow Russia to simply rejoin the world's economic and political communities after some passage of time -- and after rolling tanks into another sovereign's cities and literally raping and murdering its citizenry -- we are doomed. NATO and the West will have shown they are a bloc which, when pushed by the very thing they purport to oppose, slowly folds. We will come pretty soon to a crossroads at which the US and NATO will have to become more directly engaged in the war-making and defending of Ukraine, or decide that having a supermarket full of barbeque options and fresh-squeezed orange juice is more important than the survival of liberal democracies.

No argument here....just an engaging challenge to you over taking 'the long look'.

It is why I posed a 'hypothetical' in this thread this past Saturday, to think of all the possibilities. We (collectively) can not be overly egregious, while at the same time not overtly being the fall guy; that is the type of game Putin would love and may want to/have set up....USA bad.

That particular hypothetical is ridiculous, though I agree with the point "think of all the possibilities". Unfortunately, Putin isn't remotely interested in shifting Russia to a more open, more European, democratic country...that could happen IF he was deposed and tried as a war criminal, such prosecution supported within Russia, but he surely isn't looking to be that "martyr".

What you describe tactically above appears to be what the Biden Admin seems to be trying to tiptoe. Support Ukraine, but not allow an excuse that "USA bad", though that's exactly the message being spread internally in Russia and across many other major autocratic countries, India, China, etc anyway.

Frankly, I don't think that matters anywhere's near as much as ensuring ignominious defeat of the Russian war machine...sure, there's always the risk of a nuclear strike, but the repercussions for the aggressor would be catastrophic.

[a fan]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

The obvious and simple thing to do is ignore Russia when it comes to Trade.....and give Ukraine favored nation status. Pump them full of money and tourists. That will send a message as standard of living in Russia stagnates, and standard of living in Ukraine soars. And really, it's so low in Ukraine that a little will go a very long way.

That's a pretty great message to the world.

[old salt]

The next month is critical. imo -- if the Ukrainian army can survive the battle for Donbas intact, even if they have to retreat from the Donbas & the land bridge to Crimea, they should be able to then freeze the conflict & negotiate a cease fire, without conceding a final armistice. They can't afford to lose the ports of Mykoliv & Odesa. That would give the US time to train & rearm them with US weapons. Other than the UK, Poland & the Balts, they can't expect much more military aid from the EU NATO allies, based on their halting contributions so far.

Once we are reasonably assured they will survive as a nation, it is in our interest to make Ukraine as much of a military ally as we do Israel. They've already demonstrated their willingness to fight alongside us in Afghanistan. It would be preferable that they not join NATO. That removes that excuse from Putin & does not restrict them from fighting alongside us when feckless NATO allies won't & obstruct.

Once we know they will survive, I'd immediately start training as many experienced pilots as they can spare in the 48 x A-10's & 48 x F-16's the USAF wants to retire in FY '23. Make them our primary source of deployable A-10's for the environments in which we can use them. F-16's are becoming the NATO standard. We can give them our oldest F-16's which are retiring & squeeze out their remaining service life, as the Ukrainians get in line behind Taiwan for other retired F-16's which we are already in the pipeline to be refurbished/updated/upgraded.
Older F-18C/D Hornets might be a better stop gap. The USMC & Canada are still operating them. The F-18 E/F Super Hornet is still in production & could be a backfill replacement & successor. The F-18's have a refueling probe & can be refueled from C-130's with drogues (unlike the F-16 & other USAF acft which require bigger, more complex tankers).,

We could do the same thing with surplus M-1 Abrams tanks & Bradley fighting vehicles.
The Navy plans to decommission & place in mothballs 9 littoral combat ships, only 3-9 years old.
They could be configured for Black Sea ops & would not need to spend extended periods in transiting away from home waters.

For air defense, we could equip them with Iron Dome, Patriots, THAADS & even AEGIS ashore.
We could provide contractor maint support until they develop the capability.
This would all be expensive but since we are back in the Cold War business, that would definitely keep Russia tied down in their backyard, while our NATO allies dither in fortifying the E front, from the Arctic to the Med.
Plus, we'd have a grateful ally, with compatible weapons, willing to deploy alongside us on other inevitable global adventures.
The Cold War is back, for fun & profit. afan's plans for Ukraine will generate the revenue necessary to arm & train them.

[DocBarrister]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

The obvious and simple thing to do is ignore Russia when it comes to Trade.....and give Ukraine favored nation status. Pump them full of money and tourists. That will send a message as standard of living in Russia stagnates, and standard of living in Ukraine soars. And really, it's so low in Ukraine that a little will go a very long way.

That's a pretty great message to the world.

The plan sounds nice, but it will be many years before the Ukrainian economy will be self-sustaining again.

This war is unlikely to end soon, and we may see dozens of Ukrainian cities obliterated by Russian atrocities. It will take years just to clean up unexploded munitions. There will be a severe housing shortage for years and public infrastructure will take a decade or more to repair.

Whenever this war finally ends, Ukraine will be dependent on billions of dollars of aid annually for years to come. And that does not even include military aid.

DocBarrister

[old salt]

Ukraine will be in the EU. Their EU mates can pick up the tab to rebuild & rearm them.

[old salt]

If The Geneva Convention is still in effect and Russian military and support personnel have done what is alleged, then, I reckon the calls for, "Never Again", are just hallow echos from a decade far gone.

Yes, the war crimes only exacerbate the problems here in adherence to the post-WW2 rules-based order among nations. The West really cannot allow the infringement of sovereignty and the war crimes to simply go into the night. The West needs to literally force Russia onto a modern Elba, completely exiled and made a pariah.

Do you really want to back what so many have called an unhinged, madman in to a corner, knowing full well what is at his disposal?

We -- the world -- have some impossible choices pretty much right in front of us. If NATO and the West allow Russia to simply rejoin the world's economic and political communities after some passage of time -- and after rolling tanks into another sovereign's cities and literally raping and murdering its citizenry -- we are doomed. NATO and the West will have shown they are a bloc which, when pushed by the very thing they purport to oppose, slowly folds. We will come pretty soon to a crossroads at which the US and NATO will have to become more directly engaged in the war-making and defending of Ukraine, or decide that having a supermarket full of barbeque options and fresh-squeezed orange juice is more important than the survival of liberal democracies.

The world is not facing that challenge. The wealthy western democracies & our wealthy Pacific allies are.
The rest of the world is still looking the other way. The US, Brits, Poles, Balts, Danes, Canadians & Aussies will step up with us.

[Typical Lax Dad]

Ukraine will be in the EU. Their EU mates can pick up the tab to rebuild & rearm them.

That would be a terrible outcome.

[old salt]

MDLF76 -- here's the drone you've been looking for. The MQ-1C, it's the Army's improved version of the MQ-1A Predator (which the USAF retired years ago) & replaced with the heavier, more complex turboprop MQ-9 Reaper. The Army kept these drones very low profile. Armed drones are a politically sensitive subject & they did not want to be seen competing with the USAF & CIA in armed drones.

The MQ-1C can carry only 4 Hellfire missiles, compared to 8 Hellfires or 2 x 500# Paveway laser guided bombs that the Reaper can carry.
It's powered by an aircraft diesel engine & is more comparable to the Turkish drones they've been using.
I can't believe we didn't start supplying these weeks ago & have our Army guys in Poland already training them.
...inter-service politics. Air Force rice bowl.
Apparently we (US Army) have been operating them in Poland since at least Feb 28.
https://twitter.com/civmilair/status/14 ... 1911923713

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_A ... Gray_Eagle

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... e-weapons/
Ukrainian officials also have begun to meet with U.S. defense firms to see how else they might be able to improve their defenses. In one recent example, the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, met last week with representatives from General Atomics, the maker of Reaper and Predator drones, said C. Mark Brinkley, a company spokesman.

Brinkley said Tuesday the company is “currently exploring options” for supporting Ukraine, something that would require U.S. government approval.

“We have aircraft available now for immediate transfer,” Brinkley said. “With support from the U.S. government, those aircraft could be in the hands of Ukrainian military pilots in a matter of days.”

Such a transfer, Brinkley said, would expand Ukraine’s ability to conduct aerial surveillance of the battlefield and provide “highly lethal strike capabilities not afforded” by smaller unmanned aircraft. Ukrainian pilots already familiar with drone operations would not be “starting from scratch” in learning how to fly them, he said.

In a statement, Markarova acknowledged Tuesday night that she met with General Atomics representatives.

“Together with our team, we discussed with General Atomics the prospects of increasing the capacity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the current situation in Ukraine,” she said.

When asked what hardware she requested of the company, Markarova’s spokeswoman declined to specify, saying Ukraine would prefer to “surprise Russia on the battlefield.”

General Atomics supplies the U.S. Air Force with the Reaper and the U.S. Army with the Gray Eagle, an upgraded version of the Predator that was used widely by the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan.

[DocBarrister]

The Moskva, the infamous warship of “Russian warship, go f*ck yourself” fame, is badly damaged, on fire, and completely evacuated.

Ukraine claims it hit the ship with missiles. Russia claims it was a fire that detonated munitions. Whatever the case, this is bad for Russia, since the Moskva was the flag ship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

April 14 (Reuters) - Russia on Thursday said the flagship of its Black Sea fleet was seriously damaged and its crew evacuated following a fire that caused an explosion, as a Ukrainian official said the vessel had been hit by missiles.

The incident on the Moskva missile cruiser occurred after ammunition on board blew up, Interfax news agency quoted the Russian defence ministry as saying.

"As the result of a fire on the Moskva missile cruiser, ammunition detonated," it said in a statement.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-04-14/

This is yet another major humiliation for the Little Man, Vladimir Putin.

DocBarrister

[MDlaxfan76]

MDLF76 -- here's the drone you've been looking for. The MQ-1C, it's the Army's improved version of the MQ-1A Predator (which the USAF retired years ago) & replaced with the heavier, more complex turboprop MQ-9 Reaper. The Army kept these drones very low profile. Armed drones are a politically sensitive subject & they did not want to be seen competing with the USAF & CIA in armed drones.

The MQ-1C can carry only 4 Hellfire missiles, compared to 8 Hellfires or 2 x 500# Paveway laser guided bombs that the Reaper can carry.
It's powered by an aircraft diesel engine & is more comparable to the Turkish drones they've been using.
I can't believe we didn't start supplying these weeks ago & have our Army guys in Poland already training them.
...inter-service politics. Air Force rice bowl.
Apparently we (US Army) have been operating them in Poland since at least Feb 28.
https://twitter.com/civmilair/status/14 ... 1911923713

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_A ... Gray_Eagle

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... e-weapons/
Ukrainian officials also have begun to meet with U.S. defense firms to see how else they might be able to improve their defenses. In one recent example, the Ukrainian ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, met last week with representatives from General Atomics, the maker of Reaper and Predator drones, said C. Mark Brinkley, a company spokesman.

Brinkley said Tuesday the company is “currently exploring options” for supporting Ukraine, something that would require U.S. government approval.

“We have aircraft available now for immediate transfer,” Brinkley said. “With support from the U.S. government, those aircraft could be in the hands of Ukrainian military pilots in a matter of days.”

Such a transfer, Brinkley said, would expand Ukraine’s ability to conduct aerial surveillance of the battlefield and provide “highly lethal strike capabilities not afforded” by smaller unmanned aircraft. Ukrainian pilots already familiar with drone operations would not be “starting from scratch” in learning how to fly them, he said.

In a statement, Markarova acknowledged Tuesday night that she met with General Atomics representatives.

“Together with our team, we discussed with General Atomics the prospects of increasing the capacity of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the current situation in Ukraine,” she said.

When asked what hardware she requested of the company, Markarova’s spokeswoman declined to specify, saying Ukraine would prefer to “surprise Russia on the battlefield.”

General Atomics supplies the U.S. Air Force with the Reaper and the U.S. Army with the Gray Eagle, an upgraded version of the Predator that was used widely by the U.S. military in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Glad to hear that they're getting these into the battle. Seems to me that this is going to be super important in the battles on the more wide open plains where it'll be harder to do quick strikes from the ground without such air offense.

Separately, fascinating on the analysis about the relatively inexpensive drones that are dressed up to appear on radar as if powerfully armed, forcing the Russians to expend expensive anti-aircraft resources, and enabling the ones that actually are more lethal more access...apparently the trade between the inexpensive drones and the expensive anti-aircraft systems is a brilliant way to use up Russian resources...

[old salt]

...I wonder which SEAL team is deployed with the Truman CSG in the Aegean & Ionian Sea these days ?