Duke

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wlaxphan20
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Re: Duke

Post by wlaxphan20 »

DMac wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 9:44 am I don't know what your link is showing me, I know what the score was at the end of one but you don't win games at the end of one, it's a sixty minute game. You don't win games at the half either. You give zero credit to the team who fought back and didn't lay down because they were behind on the scoreboard when you say Duke choked. Cuse regrouped after taking a punch in the face and fought back to take the W, this is not a choke by Duke, it's hard fought victory by Cuse.
While Duke’s initial lead was shocking - I never felt that the game was out of Cuse’s reach. Sometimes 7-8 goals is a huge lead and sometimes it’s do-able, especially if the team that is down is the better team. A 7-8 goal lead on Syracuse, with more than half the game left to play, is anything but comfortable (except to maybe 3-4 teams). It depends entirely on the two teams playing. It was 12-8 Duke by halftime which was an easy deficit to cover. A 4 goal lead with 30 mins to play, against a very good team, in lacrosse is minuscule…especially with the possession clock. I always thought of choking as “a worse performance than you’d expect given one’s experience & ability - particularly in stressful or high-pressure situations”. I think you could apply that certainly to Cuse’s first 15 mins and maybe the first half, but they made good adjustments and started playing at the level they are capable of. Duke didn’t just roll over either. Others may define “choking” another way, though.

Maybe if this whole game happened in reverse…it was a close contest throughout - then in the 4th Syracuse just decided to let Duke walk around the 8 unmarked, let them score 8 wide open goals, and lost the game I’d consider the idea that Cuse choked.
8meterPA
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Re: Duke

Post by 8meterPA »

wlaxphan20 wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 4:06 pm
DMac wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 9:44 am I don't know what your link is showing me, I know what the score was at the end of one but you don't win games at the end of one, it's a sixty minute game. You don't win games at the half either. You give zero credit to the team who fought back and didn't lay down because they were behind on the scoreboard when you say Duke choked. Cuse regrouped after taking a punch in the face and fought back to take the W, this is not a choke by Duke, it's hard fought victory by Cuse.
While Duke’s initial lead was shocking - I never felt that the game was out of Cuse’s reach. Sometimes 7-8 goals is a huge lead and sometimes it’s do-able, especially if the team that is down is the better team. A 7-8 goal lead on Syracuse, with more than half the game left to play, is anything but comfortable (except to maybe 3-4 teams). It depends entirely on the two teams playing. It was 12-8 Duke by halftime which was an easy deficit to cover. A 4 goal lead with 30 mins to play, against a very good team, in lacrosse is minuscule…especially with the possession clock. I always thought of choking as “a worse performance than you’d expect given one’s experience & ability - particularly in stressful or high-pressure situations”. I think you could apply that certainly to Cuse’s first 15 mins and maybe the first half, but they made good adjustments and started playing at the level they are capable of. Duke didn’t just roll over either. Others may define “choking” another way, though.

Maybe if this whole game happened in reverse…it was a close contest throughout - then in the 4th Syracuse just decided to let Duke walk around the 8 unmarked, let them score 8 wide open goals, and lost the game I’d consider the idea that Cuse choked.
Hey, well reasoned and thoughtful commentary is not allowed on the board! :D
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OuttaNowhereWregget
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Re: Duke

Post by OuttaNowhereWregget »

wlaxphan20 wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 4:06 pm Others may define “choking” another way, though.
Thanks for acknowledging this. As the saying goes--if two people agree on everything, one of them isn't necessary.
DMac
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Re: Duke

Post by DMac »

You have to give us your definition of choke if it's going to be different than what the rest of consider what a choke is. 3 and 2, bottom of the 9th, men on 2nd and 3rd, 2 outs, down 1 run. Pitcher throws a 99 mph curve, batter swings and misses. Pitcher make a good pitch or did the batter choke?
The Duke team didn't choke, they got beat by a good team.
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OuttaNowhereWregget
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Re: Duke

Post by OuttaNowhereWregget »

DMac wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:24 pm You have to give us your definition of choke if it's going to be different than what the rest of consider what a choke is.
Actually, I don't. We all have our opinions and we all have our rationale for our opinions. Though I say this plainly, I don't say it flippantly.
DMac
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Re: Duke

Post by DMac »

There's quite a difference between different opinions and different languages.
If you're using your own definition for words you can't much expect people to
understand what you mean.
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OuttaNowhereWregget
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Re: Duke

Post by OuttaNowhereWregget »

DMac wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:39 pm There's quite a difference between different opinions and different languages.
If you're using your own definition for words you can't much expect people to
understand what you mean.
I think I’ve been consistent in my use of the word over the years on this board. I won’t be compelled to define my terms when others don’t agree with my application of it.

Edit/addition: I’m more than happy to agree to disagree. I understand where you and wlaxphan are coming from. You both make valid points. I just think differently about it. No biggie.
DMac
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Re: Duke

Post by DMac »

"My terms" pretty much does define it.
The batter choked, pitcher didn't beat him.
Choked has a derogatory connotation, getting beat, not so much.
Use it to your liking.

Will agree to disagree and no, no biggie.
laxer12
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Re: Duke

Post by laxer12 »

wlaxphan20 wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 4:06 pm
DMac wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 9:44 am I don't know what your link is showing me, I know what the score was at the end of one but you don't win games at the end of one, it's a sixty minute game. You don't win games at the half either. You give zero credit to the team who fought back and didn't lay down because they were behind on the scoreboard when you say Duke choked. Cuse regrouped after taking a punch in the face and fought back to take the W, this is not a choke by Duke, it's hard fought victory by Cuse.
While Duke’s initial lead was shocking - I never felt that the game was out of Cuse’s reach. Sometimes 7-8 goals is a huge lead and sometimes it’s do-able, especially if the team that is down is the better team. A 7-8 goal lead on Syracuse, with more than half the game left to play, is anything but comfortable (except to maybe 3-4 teams). It depends entirely on the two teams playing. It was 12-8 Duke by halftime which was an easy deficit to cover. A 4 goal lead with 30 mins to play, against a very good team, in lacrosse is minuscule…especially with the possession clock. I always thought of choking as “a worse performance than you’d expect given one’s experience & ability - particularly in stressful or high-pressure situations”. I think you could apply that certainly to Cuse’s first 15 mins and maybe the first half, but they made good adjustments and started playing at the level they are capable of. Duke didn’t just roll over either. Others may define “choking” another way, though.

Maybe if this whole game happened in reverse…it was a close contest throughout - then in the 4th Syracuse just decided to let Duke walk around the 8 unmarked, let them score 8 wide open goals, and lost the game I’d consider the idea that Cuse choked.
I love your posts; they're always very well-reasoned and objective.
wlaxphan20
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Re: Duke

Post by wlaxphan20 »

laxer12 wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 9:26 pm
wlaxphan20 wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 4:06 pm
DMac wrote: Sun Apr 03, 2022 9:44 am I don't know what your link is showing me, I know what the score was at the end of one but you don't win games at the end of one, it's a sixty minute game. You don't win games at the half either. You give zero credit to the team who fought back and didn't lay down because they were behind on the scoreboard when you say Duke choked. Cuse regrouped after taking a punch in the face and fought back to take the W, this is not a choke by Duke, it's hard fought victory by Cuse.
While Duke’s initial lead was shocking - I never felt that the game was out of Cuse’s reach. Sometimes 7-8 goals is a huge lead and sometimes it’s do-able, especially if the team that is down is the better team. A 7-8 goal lead on Syracuse, with more than half the game left to play, is anything but comfortable (except to maybe 3-4 teams). It depends entirely on the two teams playing. It was 12-8 Duke by halftime which was an easy deficit to cover. A 4 goal lead with 30 mins to play, against a very good team, in lacrosse is minuscule…especially with the possession clock. I always thought of choking as “a worse performance than you’d expect given one’s experience & ability - particularly in stressful or high-pressure situations”. I think you could apply that certainly to Cuse’s first 15 mins and maybe the first half, but they made good adjustments and started playing at the level they are capable of. Duke didn’t just roll over either. Others may define “choking” another way, though.

Maybe if this whole game happened in reverse…it was a close contest throughout - then in the 4th Syracuse just decided to let Duke walk around the 8 unmarked, let them score 8 wide open goals, and lost the game I’d consider the idea that Cuse choked.
I love your posts; they're always very well-reasoned and objective.

Hahaha I definitely wouldn’t use the word always, there are times where I have some strong feelings, but thank you.
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OuttaNowhereWregget
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Re: Duke

Post by OuttaNowhereWregget »

From the Bracketology article:

"Duke is another team on a long winning streak (7). The nation’s highest scoring team* lacks a signature win that could propel it into hosting consideration with BC and UNC remaining"

So sure--Duke makes the Tournament but they won't host for all their gaudy numbers. That's where their cupcake schedule does them more harm than good in the end. I don't see them knocking off BC or Carolina (though I would walk on air for a few days if they happened to upset the Heels).

* After beating up on weak sisters Gardner-Webb 22-3; Elon 25-5; W&M 23-5; High Point 22-13; Wofford 20-4; East Carolina 19-9 and Davidson 20-3.
Asterisk and following, mine.
crazyhorse
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Re: Duke

Post by crazyhorse »

Exactly what I said last week on another thread:

Duke could use a quality win as well. They currently have none (defined as beating a team with an RPI of 1-20) despite their gaudy record. And by that definition winning today wouldn't count as one either. Weak SOS should bite them come seeding time.

Nice to see you now see the light :D

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. How many teams can boast North Carolina, Boston College and Syracuse on their schedule? And in the wacky world of women’s lacrosse RPI—it doesn’t matter if you beat them, or even play well against them – you just have to play them to get RPI points.

By the way, looks like ND's RPI fell out of the top 20 again after scheduling and destroying Detroit Mercy yesterday so Duke is back to having zero significant wins. Once could argue that looking at ND and UVA's struggles to finish at .500 after taking on tough non-conference schedules, there was a method behind the weak scheduling madness. The flip side of increasing your odds of making the tournament is that you limit your chances of being seeded without having some significant wins.

I wouldn't completely discount them beating BC. It will be an emotional day with Charlotte North returning to Durham, and I have really been impressed with the improvement in Duke's D since Nick Williams came from Gtown.
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OuttaNowhereWregget
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Re: Duke

Post by OuttaNowhereWregget »

crazyhorse wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:53 am Exactly what I said last week on another thread:

Duke could use a quality win as well. They currently have none (defined as beating a team with an RPI of 1-20) despite their gaudy record. And by that definition winning today wouldn't count as one either. Weak SOS should bite them come seeding time.

Nice to see you now see the light :D

I wouldn’t be so sure about that. How many teams can boast North Carolina, Boston College and Syracuse on their schedule? And in the wacky world of women’s lacrosse RPI—it doesn’t matter if you beat them, or even play well against them – you just have to play them to get RPI points.

By the way, looks like ND's RPI fell out of the top 20 again after scheduling and destroying Detroit Mercy yesterday so Duke is back to having zero significant wins. Once could argue that looking at ND and UVA's struggles to finish at .500 after taking on tough non-conference schedules, there was a method behind the weak scheduling madness. The flip side of increasing your odds of making the tournament is that you limit your chances of being seeded without having some significant wins.

I wouldn't completely discount them beating BC. It will be an emotional day with Charlotte North returning to Durham, and I have really been impressed with the improvement in Duke's D since Nick Williams came from Gtown.
I don’t disagree with anything you say here. I don’t know if you are under the impression that I have in the past regarding Duke, their cupcake out of conference schedule, and the fact that it will catch up to them during the Tournament.
crazyhorse
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Re: Duke

Post by crazyhorse »

just a friendly little jab about the points bolded. On another thread, I had said "weak SOS should bite them come seeding time" and you replied with "I wouldn't be so sure about that". I know you've been critical of their schedule, which is why your previous reply had surprised me.
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Dr. Tact
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Re: Duke

Post by Dr. Tact »

crazyhorse wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:53 am
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. How many teams can boast North Carolina, Boston College and Syracuse on their schedule? And in the wacky world of women’s lacrosse RPI—it doesn’t matter if you beat them, or even play well against them – you just have to play them to get RPI points.
That is the sucky part about not being in the ACC or B1G for RPI. You can't get significant bonus points (25%) for your opponents opponents. But a Duke with no significant wins gets a bonus for all the ACC playing each other. Right?
wlaxphan20
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Re: Duke

Post by wlaxphan20 »

Dr. Tact wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:35 pm
crazyhorse wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:53 am
I wouldn’t be so sure about that. How many teams can boast North Carolina, Boston College and Syracuse on their schedule? And in the wacky world of women’s lacrosse RPI—it doesn’t matter if you beat them, or even play well against them – you just have to play them to get RPI points.
That is the sucky part about not being in the ACC or B1G for RPI. You can't get significant bonus points (25%) for your opponents opponents. But a Duke with no significant wins gets a bonus for all the ACC playing each other. Right?
KenPom has some good articles about it on his website explaining it. Although the formula seems straight forward, this helped me understand it better. Disclaimer: the articles are from 2003 and the context is college basketball, but it doesn't affect how the numbers work.

https://kenpom.com/blog/defending-the-rpi-part-1-of-3/
https://kenpom.com/blog/defending-the-rpi-part-2-of-3/

Part 3 deals with home court advantage and isn't really as relevant in wlax as it is in men's college basketball.
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OuttaNowhereWregget
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Re: Duke

Post by OuttaNowhereWregget »

crazyhorse wrote: Wed Apr 06, 2022 12:27 pm just a friendly little jab about the points bolded. On another thread, I had said "weak SOS should bite them come seeding time" and you replied with "I wouldn't be so sure about that". I know you've been critical of their schedule, which is why your previous reply had surprised me.
Yes—The not so sure part was in reference to all the mashugana RPI and SOS analytics.
crazyhorse
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Re: Duke

Post by crazyhorse »

I should have put those two lines in quotes because they came from ONW in response to a previous post but no matter, I'll respond to your question.

Yes, you do get "bonus points" from the last 25% IF your conference is dominant in out of conference games. Here is a quote from the USALaxMag men's version of bracketology:

"If there is a chronic complaint fans lob at the NCAA men’s lacrosse committee — which is tasked with, among other things, selecting and seeding the tournament field annually — it is a bias toward ACC teams.

So here’s a reality check: There is no bias toward any team or league. There is a bias toward teams with strong RPI and strength of schedule data points, regardless of whether those numbers actually reflect quality.

Typically, ACC teams have done well in non-conference play, which helps bolster RPI data (50 percent of which is opponents’ winning percentage and 25 percent of which is opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage). Once April arrives and ACC teams are largely playing league games, that mathematical strength builds upon itself."

But it doesn't always work out, as the ACC Men may see this year. There are some non-ACC/Big 10 losses in there this year (UVA to Richmond, Duke to Jacksonville) so RPIs are weaker than usual and the current projection has only two ACC schools in instead of the usual 3 to 4.

If I were king, I would reward significant wins a lot higher than RPI and SOS. Let's look at team you might have a bit of interest in: Loyola.
They scheduled 8 OOC games. 3 of them are in the top 10 for RPI, and they won 2 of them. Only two are outside the top 40 (Towson and Georgetown) and I wouldn't exactly call them cupcakes. When you take on a schedule like that, shouldn't that more than balance out a weaker conference schedule in the Patriot League? Same goes for Florida and Stony Brook in my opinion.
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OuttaNowhereWregget
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Re: Duke

Post by OuttaNowhereWregget »

Duke—the team folks love to hate 😉

Image

Not me, but...
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OuttaNowhereWregget
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Duke at Virginia Tech 7 pm

Post by OuttaNowhereWregget »

Duke looks past Virginia Tech at their own peril here. Duke should win pretty handily, but the game is in Blacksburg and Duke is the heavy favorite--a perfect recipe for an upset. I think it will be close but it won't be the first or last time I've guessed wrong on the outcome of a game. Anyway--Go Hokies. I'd love to see an upset here just to shake things up a bit, maybe galvanize Duke for the stretch run.
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